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The All New 22/23 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Been bucketing down with snow here in La Rosier all day.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snowing on and off in Claviere, snow line around 1500m. So far it is ever so slightly better than the forecast on this side of the hill but looks soggier over in Sauze. Fingers crossed the FL goes and stays low.
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Still belting it down with snow in Saas-Fee this morning but, and it's a big but, avalanche risk has closed all but the village lifts. And there's little point in going down to Saas-Grund or Saas-Almagell; only one lift and one run open in each of those ski areas.
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FL is pretty high today, around 2000m close to predictions earlier in the week. SL will be several hundred meters lower down.

The Beaufortain has done well out of the recent snowfall with 60cm at 2000 meters over the last 3 days, 70cm at la Plagne at high altitudes, 90cm at Val d'Isere and 120cm currently recorded in the Mont Blanc above 2000m.

Southern Alps the picture is less rosy with the FL at around 2500 at Orciere which still has seen around 40cm of snow above 2000m

Obviously an avalanche warning from Meteo France https://pistehors.com/5Elm0IYBsDqi-Lmip8eP/meteo-france-avalanche-bulletin-10-march-2023


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Sat 11-03-23 23:28; edited 1 time in total
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There was some fresh snow falling during most of the morning today in the Skiwelt area. Not huge volumes but enough to add a decent layer on pistes and to make everything look much nicer. Overall the pistes were in excellent condition throughout the day and only became slushy late in the afternoon and only at the end of the runs finishing at village level. The forecast for tomorrow is basically the same so we are expecting to have another very enjoyable day. Monday is when it becomes more uncertain as the weather is supposed to become very mild all of the sudden with temperatures around 15c at 1500m. I'm not sure what will be left of the snow after that.
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FYI - I have friends out in Wengen and it has snowed all the way down into the valley with even a couple of inches in Lauterbrunen.
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Don't often see it as severe as this



And drill down and it's an even more of a severe picture!

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Very clear views of the mountains this morning could practically see folk skiing Smile, looks like a very strong Föhn in prospect. Crazy high temperatures (for this time of year) due, might hit 20 degrees. This is going to strip snow from the lower slopes very quickly. Might be snow on Wednesday morning followed by back to spring at the weekend! Not very optimistic about the outlook for any more snow next week.
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And Henri not optimistic about any long term prospects for any big dump in March. Might have to wait for April for a last hurrah.
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munich_irish wrote:
Very clear views of the mountains this morning could practically see folk skiing Smile, looks like a very strong Föhn in prospect. Crazy high temperatures (for this time of year) due, might hit 20 degrees. This is going to strip snow from the lower slopes very quickly. Might be snow on Wednesday morning followed by back to spring at the weekend! Not very optimistic about the outlook for any more snow next week.


same in Grenoble today, was sitting in a terrace and at least some of the girls were wearing pretty light clothing even if I kept my coat on.

We are supposed to lose 15C tonight with a stormfront blowing through bringing snow to 2500m at first, dropping to 1800m later then 1100m on Tuesday morning with the weather clearning up on Wednesday and unseasonably warm for the end of the week.

Bref, if you hit the slopes Wednesday/Thursday could be good but again, above 1800/2000m.
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Meteo France have issued a orange Thunderstorm warning for the Savoie tonight
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@Rob Mackley, yes could be interesting to see what happens.

Just driving back from piste (1400) and car thermometer showing 18.5 and back home, house thermometer currently 16.5 with a strong warm S'ly blowing, find it hard to compute that in around 12hrs it's going to -2, one thing for certain I can't see what snow we might get hanging around for long.

Hopefully up the hill will be a different story.

I was going to venture out on the bike but not with the wind blowing.
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@Weathercam, The line across Europe this winter between warm and cold has been so extreme it’s either bloody cold or tropical . What I’d give for an old fashioned normal winter and for that mind summer !
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Weathercam wrote:


I was going to venture out on the bike but not with the wind blowing.


yeah, not biking weather, well apart from the temperature, zero iso > 3000 meters in the Mont Blanc area

still looking like there is some touring left around your way though: https://www.skaping.com/valloire/galibier
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@davidof, I was going to maybe eMTB up Granon road to take a look as Gardiole looks like very good coverage from 2,000 but question as to what the snow is actually like, so will wait till later in the week and see what happens later today/tomorrow as I'm not climbing up to downhill kickturn back down Laughing
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 Poster: A snowHead
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zero iso back down to around 1500 meters today. In the Savoie/Hte Savoie around 15cm of new snow overnight above 2200 meters. Between 50 to 100 cm of snow since last week at altitude depending on the mountain range.
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I'm going to 3V on 26 March. Should I be concerned about the warm temperatures on the forecasts in a week's time?
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Noob921 wrote:
I'm going to 3V on 26 March. Should I be concerned about the warm temperatures on the forecasts in a week's time?


not overly for the 3vs, should be a good trip
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@Noob921, temperatures look fairly normal for mid/end of March to me
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Another very snowy morning in Saas-Fee but limited uplift open, as yet.
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Grenoble last night from the webcam

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Sitting at 1550m at 4 vallees & there’s a lot of snow remarkable considering the weather yesterday! Snow line is about 1300m but not so heavy there, it was rain earlier in the night at that level.
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So true. In alpe d'huez yesterday tropics today 5 inch of powder and still ckijng sown.
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Strange weather continues, woke up this morning to a covering of snow, it appears the same a bit further south across most of the Tirol & Salzburgerland (given we are at around 550m here snow must have fallen down to the valleys in the mountains). Friday the forecast is for spring to arrive, might get to 20 degrees. While a mix of cooler & warmer weather is not unusual at this time of year the the big change in such a short time is. No thunderstorms today though!
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I stayed in Brides-Les-Bains for an extended w/e break - skiing Sunday, Monday, Tuesday with a mate over from Blighty. We headed up the hill yesterday not expecting any great shakes as it was raining in Bride. It quickly turned to snow at around 1,000m and snowed heavily all day in Meribel. Most of the links were closed due to high winds and visibility was virtually zero most of the day. We had a long lunch to try and dry out and just expected to do a couple of low runs before calling it a day.

On a whim we decided to go up Tougnettes 2 for a last run before beer 'o clock; we broke through the cloud into bright sunshine and untouched powder! We stayed up their for an hour skiing freshies and hardly seeing another soul except the lifties Cool It was the icing on the cake of a great mini-trip. I wasn't expecting much, but the snow on Saturday and yesterday changed everything!

Anybody out there today will have fantastic conditions and blue sky - unfortunately we had to leave this morning...
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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=47337&var=203&run=6&date=2023-03-15&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1
Looking at this chart, how do you work out the predicted total snowfall? The raw data is:
19 March 01:00 - 0.1cm
19 March 07:00 - 0.8cm
19 March 13:00 - 1.5cm
19 March 19:00 - 1.0cm
Does this mean there is expected to be 3.4cm in total on 19 March or am I misunderstanding?
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@Noob921, The fact the lines are all very different means forecast and hence the precipitation is still very much uncertain. Each line is a different "forecast model" and they are not in agreement.


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Wed 15-03-23 16:11; edited 2 times in total
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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@Noob921, your calculation method is correct - you're right to use the thick white line to get the average (mean) figure. (Not sure how accurate GFS snow depth charts are though.)
Edit: and yes, as above, the forecast is still uncertain, so subject to change. Looks like the likely range is c. 1-10cm.
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Looks like it's staying warm but dry for much of the alpes for the next few days. Potentially some cooling and weather on the way from the 24th March
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Boarderfarce wrote:
Looks like it's staying warm but dry for much of the alpes for the next few days. Potentially some cooling and weather on the way from the 24th March


Great! Fingers crossed a nice top up just before the Easter Holiday drive!
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How is the situation looking from mid next week for Verbier / Portes du Soleil? Have a 5-day trip planned but still cancelable until tomorrow afternoon - which I'd want to do in case of not-so-great weather (precipitation/winds).
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What I found interesting during the SSW thing was often the weather at home mirrored what was going on in the Alps, with (by domestic standards) heavy snow and concurrent big temperature swings from one day to the next. Kind of like we were a little voodoo doll for them.

I'm unemployed for the next month and eyeing another trip. What do the snowheads say about squiggles and my prospects? Looks like nothing happening next week anyway, any disturbances further on?
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@klanfa, @8611, generally looking fairly mild and fairly settled until next weekend, then signs of cooler temperatures and more unsettled weather, probably focussed on the northwestern Alps.
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@denfinella, thanks, that would be helpful as flights that week will still be cheap, Easter premium thereafter. Squiggle watch commences next weekend so.
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So normal mid to late March weather then .
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@Rob Mackley, pretty much, at least in terms of precipitation. Though overall, quite mild if current model runs prove to be accurate, compared to the 1981-2010 average. No below average temperatures currently forecast - the cooling is just towards roughly average temps.

Perhaps this is the "new Alpine normal", however.
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@denfinella, I think I’m becoming used to the new norm . I’m always very realistic about my late March first week of April trip . Over the last ten years or so it’s either been very warm most of the time but have had a few when a surprise cold snap has come in . However 20 odd years ago my expectations were different . Actually feel a new thread coming on .
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Uk cooling off from the 22nd March. Last week of March is looking very unsettled in the northern French alps. The base should continue to build at altitude.
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Henri's reading of the tea leaves certainly allows for some developments next weekend. Bergfex's soft porn interpretation looking promising also.

https://www.bergfex.com/tignes/wetter/berg/
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