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The All New 22/23 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I have wondered what SSW stood for, didn't think it meant a Sou sou westerly!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Handy Turnip, the wind chill means that if the snow flakes have exposed faces or other bodily parts, they'll feel colder.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
under a new name wrote:
@Handy Turnip, the wind chill means that if the snow flakes have exposed faces or other bodily parts, they'll feel colder.


Laughing Laughing snowHead
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Handy Turnip wrote:

Am I right in thinking that snow will fall up to a temperature of about 2C - so that if the freezing level is at 2000m, then snow will still fall below that as long as the temperature is at or below 2C. Or is that a little too simplistic?


Not an expert but it's more complicated than that - snow could even fall at 3C or 4C in some circumstances, but on the other hand, it's possible for rain to fall when the air temperature at the surface is below 0C (freezing rain).

Handy Turnip wrote:

Also, does wind chill impact anything at all i.e. if the temp is 3C, but the wind chill is -1C. Does that mean snow or rain? Or am I grasping at straws too much?!


No, wind chill is just a measure of how it feels. If the temperature is 3C and it's windy, it might feel freezing, but it will still be 3C and water won't freeze.
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@musehead, but if your snowflakes really are snowflakes, they'll stay indoors sulking in their bedrooms.
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@onefff, afaik, if it's quoting in mm it's for rain and cms for snow.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Ahhggghh. So annoying. I'm not canceling my trip to adh, but I hope it isn't a disaster next week fingers crossed!! Rain would be so annoying at 2k meters
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
The rule of thumb is that that precipitation will fall to between 2 and 300m below the freezing level.
But: the freezing level is pretty difficult to forecast to within 200m and as the storm progresses the freezing level normally drops as melting the snow takes temperature out of the atmosphere (unless the synoptic situation is a conveyor belt of increasingly warm air)
Tricky innit - as davidof says - look out of the window!
For this week in the haute tarentaise - it will be raining in Meribel centre, it will probably start raining in Val D'Isere by friday and it might be raining in Tignes by Saturday.
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If it rains, it will wash away the snow that accumulated?
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chocksaway wrote:

Tricky innit - as davidof says - look out of the window!


The irony being that if I look out the window over the next couple of days, I have a fair chance of seeing some snow. Unfortunately I'm in the UK and not the Alps.
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Briefly on above questions.
Wind chill is just a measure of how you will feel the temperature on exposed skin so no effect on snow/no snow.
Snow will fall to below freezing level, yes 200m is a rule of thumb. Dependant on intensity due to evaporative cooling. The cold snow will cool the air around it slightly as it falls so heavier = lower snow. Quite often see big heavy flakes reverting to drizzle due to this effect.
Rain amount to snow depth is variable but rule of thumb is 1 to 10, so 1mm rain gives about 1cn snow.
Can't belive the alps are missing out with synoptics like this

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Joshsnowfiend wrote:
If it rains, it will wash away the snow that accumulated?


Well, it will definitely do a number on the snowpack if it rains. A combination of warmer temps, warm winds and rain will definitely cause consolidation and loss of snowpack depth.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Thanks @scottishandy, @chocksaway, @musehead, @under a new name et al for the answers to my questions!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
For those interested Meteo Tarentaise have posted quite an in depth and detailed forecast for the next few days on Facebook this evening
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Rob Mackley, summary?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Lots of precipitation coming Wednesday, lots of wind with it.

Should be some snow in valleys but gets increasingly warmer and may get wet snow as high as 2500m`

Calms down for a day before kicking off again at end of week for the weekend. No one really knows what the weekend will be like in terms of precipitation, wind and most importantly freezing levels.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Layne, Eh oh! Eh oh! Eh oh! Eh oh! SPECIAL BULLETIN ABOUT THE UPCOMING EPISODE:

⬇ You all know, an important snowstorm episode is expected on the Tarantaise in the next few days, it will start tomorrow.

rapid Tomorrow, despite the beautiful deceiving lightings, the sky will be cloudy quickly in the late morning and the sky will even be well covered in the afternoon.
A small front will even be in place from 5pm to 10pm/23pm.
It will be low intensity, it will snow above 800/900m.
It's expected 2/3 cm above 1200 m altitude.
The night will be calm then approaching disturbance...

abFrom sunrise from 06/07h, the first disturbance approaches the Tarantaise and precipitation at first weak, will intensify over the hours and will remain present throughout the day with varying intensities depending on the times of the day.
A few peaks of intensity are visible, between late morning and mid afternoon before a further reactivation during the evening.
Rainfall will continue to concern us throughout the night, with occasionally marked intensities, precipitation should then cease during Thursday morning.
In the valley, 40/60mm is expected depending on sectors.
LPN at the beginning of the episode, Wednesday morning is expected to be 1200/1300m then should rise late morning to 1700/1800m, locally 1900m over West Tarantaise.
During the afternoon, the limit for snow is around 1800m, and may temporarily rise to 1900/2000m under the warm heart of the expected disturbance between 8pm and 00pm.
The LPN is expected to decrease in the second part of the night to 1700/1800m, locally 1500m at sunrise and early part of the morning, at the end of disruption.

au Regarding snow accumulation, 30/40cm expected above 1800m, locally 50cm above 2200/2500m, sometimes wet snow up to 2500m.
5/10cm expected Wednesday late morning before the 1500m altitude redoux.

Eh oh! Note that the wind will increase sharply, starting tomorrow morning above 2500/3000m with gusts from the west in the order of 35/40km/h, weaker lower and will rise from a brisk tomorrow afternoon, wind from the South-West sector, 30/40km/h above 1800/2000m and up to 50/70km/h above 3000 meters.
It will rise again from late Wednesday morning, early afternoon with gusts of 60/70km/h to 1800/2000, 80/90km/h above 2500m, and maximum gusts are expected on Wednesday evening and second part of the night, with gusts 40/60km/h in valley, 70/90km/h above 2000m, 100/130km/h at 2500m and locally up to 150km/h above 3000m.

esCalm weather during the day Thursday before a return Thursday night into Friday with a high risk weekend... To be watched very closely...
In the meantime, we'll meet tomorrow for the first follow-up, and a new special bulletin will be issued Thursday morning for the second phase of this disrupted episode.
Thank you for reading, have a good evening everyone!

⬇Map of possible rainfall cumulus as seen by ARPEGE (Meteorological)

Romain VIVIANI from Météo Tarentaise

Eh oh! And let's not forget the leetchi potty for those who want to join me for the project of installing weather sensors on the Tarantaise and Haute Tarantaise, there are more than a few days left... the link ( https://www.leetchi.com/fr/c/lNLA8NVD )

Our partner R’les Arcs la radio station
( www.laradiostation.fr )
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
A leetchi potty doesn’t sound good ..
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franga wrote:
A leetchi potty doesn’t sound good ..


Might be useful if it starts dumping
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Cheers @Rob Mackley,

Will be interesting to see how this all unfolds and where we end up this time next week.
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Praying. My whole family has been exited for 4 months for out trip
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Really feel for those in the PdS and lower resorts. A terrible start to the season and now this.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Some enormous rainfall figures appearing on MeteoSwiss today .
Sadly the snow line is projected to be 2000m and above in many parts of CH.
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I dont believe uts effecting Austria as bad is it?
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Rogerdodger wrote:
Some enormous rainfall figures appearing on MeteoSwiss today .
Sadly the snow line is projected to be 2000m and above in many parts of CH.


yes, rain, on and off to high altitudes until around the 20th. I'm kind of thinking I might ski somewhere high towards the end of the month and/or April but that's pretty much the season done for us.
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I'm not convinced rain washes away snow, especially bullet proof man made, it will saturate it then it'll refreeze if the forecasts pan out...
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
kitenski wrote:
I'm not convinced rain washes away snow, especially bullet proof man made, it will saturate it then it'll refreeze if the forecasts pan out...


Agreed especially when mixed with artificial-snow.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I'm hoping 10cm of snow followed by 10cm(!) of rain is a net positive once it's all over, although it might not feel that way to anyone out skiing at 2,000m on Saturday morning.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

Praying. My whole family has been exited for 4 months for out trip


Going ADH on Saturday and feeling the same
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@kitenski, I think looking at the next few days where I am, the combination of above zero temps through day and night, the high winds and the heavy prolonged rain forecast we will see some regression of the snow pack up the hill. how far not sure, but the Chaudannes webcam in Meribel might look a lot different by Monday (if they don't turn it off!)
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@chocksaway, yeah regression I get, washing away all the compacted snow on piste I don't! (unconsolidated snow off the piste may well be different!)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@kitenski, I'll report how it goes!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
chocksaway wrote:
@kitenski, I'll report how it goes!


Depends on how much rain, although currently snowing at 1300 meters, big flakes

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FWIW snowing here in Leeds with the outside temp at 5.3 degrees
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Tiny wee flocons here, +1.7 @ 1,400 just saw a car that must have come down from the Lautaret with a couple of cms on it.

Have some friends who arrived in La Grave staying in Les Terraces above LG at 1,800m so I'll know what's going on over the other side as it were.

As I'm also typing this have a feckin mouse running around the terrace eating the bird seed, driving dogs bonkers Laughing


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Tue 7-03-23 17:36; edited 1 time in total
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Just a quick question, how will the storm forecast for Saturday effect flights in/out of Chambery?
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Car thermometer said 5C approaching Meribel late this afternoon with snow falling outside! Not sure if accurate...

I'll be in/around Meribel from now until 20th so it will be interesting to see what effect all the incoming rain has on the pistes etc (and what happens with the off piste at altitude!)
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I've just really depressed myself by looking at the Met Office charts and you can clearly see where the mild temps and weather are all coming from Crying or Very sad

You can see how they all pan out here https://www.anotherharddayattheoffice.co.uk/charts24.html#charts

and then how and where the resulting precipitation arrives over the Western Alps.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/precipitations/3h.htm

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@gixxerniknik, Tricky to forecast the cloud base and visibility over the airfield this far out, though its fair to say it will be raining. If you go to the Tignes thread on Friday about 4pm I do a travel for the weekend section and by then I will have interpreted an aviation specific forecast, backed up by a knowledge of local procedures and minima, for the 4 airports that folks travel to Tignes from. By then I will be able to tell you the likelihood of issues.
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….Meanwhile the forecast for the Pennines this Saturday morning is temperatures down below minus 10c and 30cms of snow at 500m ! We shall see Laughing
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