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Another UK Lockdown Imminent?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The situation in London is highly alarming. Services under huge pressure, numbers going up and masses of unvaccinated people becoming ill enough to be admitted to hospital. It's happening now - not modelling.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
What's currently happening in London gives no reason for optimism. Shocked
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Boris wrote:
We’ve hardly had low levels of Delta infection and we’ve got high level of vaccinations and boosters. If anything we should be in better position


SA had a big wave of Beta which is closer to Omicron than Delta. Omicron is dominant in Scotland, but unlike previous waves Delta has not been displaced. It’s an Omicron wave on top of the delta plateau.

However the prevalence hasn’t accelerated at the same level in Scotland as in London, possibly because there were more mitigations in place at the outset.
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Re. this hatred of all modelers: Anyone remember when Prof. Van Tam said that we'd be lucky if we escaped with only 20,000 additional deaths? That was based on modelling too. At the time he was lambasted by the CRG Zealots and their lapdog journalists as being a hysterical alarmist and doom-monger.

Modelling is almost always wrong. It's be astonishing if it was spot on. It's just a way of judging 'If this / then that' and informing your planning.

When you take out a mortgage you do modelling - you assume you'll both have a job; that the cost of energy won't suddenly rocket; that you won't need to replace the car you use to get to work; that there won't be a global pandemic; etc. And you'll still do it when you come to re-mortgage because it's just part of a sensible person's financial planning, even if you didn't predict what actually happened.

The zealots and their press minions love to do ad hominem attacks on people when they can't make their case with logic or numbers. Don't fall for it.
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zikomo wrote:
As in the first and second waves, government is already too late in introducing restrictions. They only really work well when implemented quickly and severely. We did not fully understand this for the first wave, although there was good science on this from an epidemiological perspective it was not specific to Covid 19. What is sad now is we well understand the dynamics and you can see the palpable discomfort of the scientific advisors that politicians are unwilling to take what are obvious steps needed to protect the healthcare system.

There will be another lockdown, it is inevitable, it will be painful for us all and will also sadly be too little too late. Simple extrapolation of current data (especially rising hospitalisations rates in London) shows NHS capacity will be severely breached sometime around mid-January. It is already too late to prevent this happening, we would have to already be in quite strict lockdown to do so. There will be some scary numbers in the next week or two, such that there is no option but to reimpose restrictions. What makes me angry is that we will all suffer from another lockdown without gaining the benefits of going early and hard. In short lots of pain for little gain. It is beyond me why we our leaders seem unable to understand the scientific advice they are given, and why the population at large does not get angry about it.

My prediction is more restrictions next week, probably affecting restaurants and bars. Followed by the rule of 6. This will be followed by full lockdown the first week of January. There is a sad predictability and inevitability to it all.


Good post, if only this view was the common one. Such short-sighted decisions from the gov again, too little too late which will cost us doubly as much in the long run. We'll be incredibly lucky to avoid huge deaths and disruption, but if it turns out to be the worse case scenario, prepare for the most shocking time since ww2. As a country we've basically learnt nothing since the start of the Pandemic.
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@LaForet,
Quote:

so what's the fuss?' view misses the point.

No you've missed the point. The fact is that the NHS is overwhelmed on an entirely predictable basis every year, but very few give a hoot - or let me rephrase that - there's no political fallout from that cost-benefit analysis because no-one ever questions it.
However I take the point that less staff/key workers are affected in a 'normal' year. But of all the restriction periods (aka lockdowns/tiers etc.) we've had, this one seems to be being based on the flimsiest of data.

And as it happens I'm not making an argument based on my holiday plans - I'm booked on Bashes - if they happen great, if not so be it. But we have to face the fact that at some time we are going to have to bite the covid bullet - because the deaths and societal damage that we're not hearing about will become the overriding burden
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
snowhound wrote:
@abc, Yes, but ONLY pessimistic ones.....? THAT'S the bias and one that only leads to decisions going one way.
And I get models-I am a mathematical physicist....but many people still see them as predictions, not possible scenarios (and ones with no probabilities attached).

@snowhound, my post was in respond to @Mike Pow, who question why a guy who does pessimistic modeling is held in "such high regard".

I agree with you. Only the pessimistic models are being done because those are the scenarios requiring mitigation. The government need to make plans. Many plans, based on how bad the situation turn out to be. Instead of hoping and wishing, then got caught like last spring.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
How do we think this will affect foreign travel mid jan? If we do go into lockdown I guess that means no train / airport trips and possibly no entry into other countries?

Saying all that I know the mountain resorts are desperate for money not to mention the rest of the industry

Perhaps it’s different this year... perhaps the vaccinated lives will go on?
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Remember when they said vaccines were our way out of this? Lockdowns looming and travel restrictions isn’t what I was expecting

Ok I get there’s less illness - but this is just not sustainable. What happens in 6 months when there’s another variant?

To deliver booster has meant routine appointments cancelled at GPs - that’ll lead to deaths down the line.

So we either need to stand up a full time permanent vaccine squad, capable of jabbing the entire population in weeks as required - and we go back to normal

Or we pay ourselves to lockdown every winter - really?

Or we live with it
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@Boris, [1]% on income tax ring fenced for “National Vaccination Service” might be sellable politically.

Certainly easier than raising taxes to expand the NHS just so a high tally of Covid victims can die on a ward rather than in a corridor etc.
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Boris wrote:
Remember when they said vaccines were our way out of this? Lockdowns looming and travel restrictions isn’t what I was expecting

Ok I get there’s less illness - but this is just not sustainable. What happens in 6 months when there’s another variant?

To deliver booster has meant routine appointments cancelled at GPs - that’ll lead to deaths down the line.

So we either need to stand up a full time permanent vaccine squad, capable of jabbing the entire population in weeks as required - and we go back to normal

Or we pay ourselves to lockdown every winter - really?

Or we live with it


if vaccinations are the way out, then vaccinations have to be made mandatory or compulsory infection.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I’m no anti-vaxxer nor an activist that goes out on the street to protest “My freedoms!” but I’m getting completely fatigued on this, I have done everything asked of me and yet normality seems further away than it ever has been.
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@RichardB, >I’m no anti-vaxxer nor an activist that goes out on the street to protest “My freedoms!”
Agree. The activists demand their individual democracy and rights but fail to acknowledge that they have responsibilities and obligations to society.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
RichardB wrote:
I’m no anti-vaxxer nor an activist that goes out on the street to protest “My freedoms!” but I’m getting completely fatigued on this, I have done everything asked of me and yet normality seems further away than it ever has been.


I can certainly share that sentiment!

I was ok with the sacrifices needed for the first two lockdowns to protect the old and vulnerable but another “call to arms” just to stop the NHS being overwhelmed by the unvaccinated (*) will be very hard to take.

(*) I know there are non-trivial numbers of adverse outcomes amongst the vaccinated, but take out those who are unvaccinated from the NHS stats and the situation would likely be very different.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Are there official figures published that show the profile of those admitted to hospital?

Back in the UK those I know of who have caught it (due to the transmissibility of this variant) and who were vaxed said symptoms were not too bad, bad cold / tiredness etc not as bad as a severe case of the flu etc

If the profile of hospital admission's and specifically those in ICU are proportionally biased to those who have not been vaccinated or who had underlying heath issues (God forbid one mentions Ethnicicity as well) then the probable looming lockdown is based on their behaviour?

It does seem that the Health Pass you have to show in France, and yesterday in Italy, is a better option though no doubt like NL, France will too have to introduce more restrictions but again will this be due to a similar demographic profile of admission's to that of the UK?

Indeed this could be probable case in Grenoble I'm guessing, though based on just one conversation with my slightly Right wing brother, who has lived in and around Grenoble for 30yrs.

article here


Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Sun 19-12-21 8:11; edited 2 times in total
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Anyway - I’m off to my volunteer role getting jabs in arms. Let’s hope it helps in some way
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I guess hundreds of thousands in London will.jist on thoseobule petri dishes called trains and travel all over the Uk, as they did last year.....
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
This is Sept 2021 so just before Omicron..

What do the data on hospital admissions show?

An analysis of UK data from the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS) and the Coronavirus Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN),1 endorsed by the UK Scientific and Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE),2 shows that of 40 000 patients with covid-19 who were admitted to hospital between December 2020 and July 2021 a total of 33 496 (84%) had not been vaccinated. (British Medical Journal https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2306)

Although I am not a doctor I would suggest that the "trend" would be similar for Omicron. So, be responsible by getting vaccinated and a booster shot too.
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@Hurdy, thanks.
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Quote:

Anyway - I’m off to my volunteer role getting jabs in arms. Let’s hope it helps in some way

@Boris, good man!
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The Flying Snowplough wrote:

I was ok with the sacrifices needed for the first two lockdowns to protect the old and vulnerable but another “call to arms” just to stop the NHS being overwhelmed by the unvaccinated (*) will be very hard to take.

(*) I know there are non-trivial numbers of adverse outcomes amongst the vaccinated, but take out those who are unvaccinated from the NHS stats and the situation would likely be very different.


Quite. Back in 2020 before the vaccine rollout lockdowns were a tiresome but necessary measure to protect people , particularly the old and vulnerable. Now that the vast majority of the population have been vaccinated another lockdown to primarily protect those people who have chosen not to be vaccinated is a lot harder to accept.
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Alastair Pink wrote:
Now that the vast majority of the population have been vaccinated another lockdown to primarily protect those people who have chosen not to be vaccinated is a lot harder to accept.

For the pro-plaguers sake it's a good job I'm not in charge, I'd put vaccine checks at the entrance to all hospitals no vax no treatment, might get the army to set up some tents outside of town with some "healing" crystals and sugar pills so they can treat themselves -.-
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
It’s getting to the point where if lockdown comes in only for the unvaccinated and when the anti-vaxxers are inevitably up in arms about it, I would only think and probably even say “Tough.” They’ve had their multiple chances.
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Another thing to add, my immune-compromised sister recently caught COVID and her being triple vaccinated likely saved her from a hospital visit as she has now fully recovered, so I happily put my confidence in vaccinations.
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I understand the wrath towards the willingly unvaccinated on the basis they are now seemingly clogging up the health system. Some have even suggested they should go untreated.
Are the same levels of judgement applied to smokers, heavy drinkers, the obese who refuse to exercise. Just those three categories alone cause untold carnage in the health system every year. Where’s the outrage about that. Why is the health Secretary not on Andrew Marr telling everyone that smokers are failing the rest of the country!
Do we mandate that smoking is completely banned, imagine how many hospital beds would be freed from associated illness. Of course not because the govt wants it’s tax dollars from the cigarette industry. We bring in vaccine passports, how about a passport that stops super fat unhealthy people going in the confectionary aisle at Asda?
It’s all very hypocritical in my opinion.
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@jirac18, Perhaps if there was a vaccine equivalent which wass offered to the obese and was not accepted then you may have a point.

But there isn't, so you don't.
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Smoking is a voluntary act which has many social restrictions these days in terms of travel, bars and other public spaces, obesity has many contributing factors that are sometimes not the individuals fault (plus it’s not contagious). I don’t think you can apply that here.
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There is a vaccine it’s called stop opening the fridge! I have a completely valid point.
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You know it makes sense.
@jirac18, that’s an oversimplification of a problem, plus it’s not always down to over-eating, metabolism can be a huge factor in it.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Stop smoking, you’re killing yourself and you’re putting unacceptable and unnecessary pressure on the nhs.
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jirac18 wrote:
I understand the wrath towards the willingly unvaccinated on the basis they are now seemingly clogging up the health system. Some have even suggested they should go untreated.
Are the same levels of judgement applied to smokers, heavy drinkers, the obese who refuse to exercise. Just those three categories alone cause untold carnage in the health system every year. Where’s the outrage about that.


There is a subtantial difference though regarding the willingly unvaccinated. All the other cases you mention (smokers, obese etc) only affect their own health. With the unvaccinated people not only are they putting their own health at risk but as a reservoir of the Covid infection they spread it to other unvaccinated people and some breakthrough infections (hopefully with milder symptoms) to the vaccinated, and provide more opportunities for new variants to emerge.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Hurdy wrote:
This is Sept 2021 so just before Omicron..

What do the data on hospital admissions show?

An analysis of UK data from the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS) and the Coronavirus Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN),1 endorsed by the UK Scientific and Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE),2 shows that of 40 000 patients with covid-19 who were admitted to hospital between December 2020 and July 2021 a total of 33 496 (84%) had not been vaccinated. (British Medical Journal https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2306)

Although I am not a doctor I would suggest that the "trend" would be similar for Omicron. So, be responsible by getting vaccinated and a booster shot too.


The vast majority of those 33k admissions between Dec and July were unvaccinated because they hadn't yet been offered 2 doses, NOT because they didn't want the vaccine.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
My prediction and it’s already here, international travel is going to be virtually impossible if you’re unvaccinated for several years with the present situation.
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@Alastair Pink, understand your argument but don’t agree. The people who make bad or risky life choices, be it none-vax, smoking, obesity, or even skiing, put a load on the medical when their choices lead to bad outcomes. Remember: even in the best of all worlds, there is limited capacity in the medical system.

Who in your mind should get medical support and who should miss out?
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Alastair Pink wrote:
jirac18 wrote:
I understand the wrath towards the willingly unvaccinated on the basis they are now seemingly clogging up the health system. Some have even suggested they should go untreated.
Are the same levels of judgement applied to smokers, heavy drinkers, the obese who refuse to exercise. Just those three categories alone cause untold carnage in the health system every year. Where’s the outrage about that.


There is a subtantial difference though regarding the willingly unvaccinated. All the other cases you mention (smokers, obese etc) only affect their own health. With the unvaccinated people not only are they putting their own health at risk but as a reservoir of the Covid infection they spread it to other unvaccinated people and some breakthrough infections (hopefully with milder symptoms) to the vaccinated, and provide more opportunities for new variants to emerge.


You’ve missed my point which is they too are guilty of clogging up the nhs with what can be deemed as self indulgence but we don’t mandate them or stop them doing what is bad for the nhs. In fact we make up all kinds of excuses like ah poor jonny he drinks like a fish, eats like a pig, smokes like a chimney and is too lazy to exercise but bless him it’s not his fault.
If it’s about saving the nhs then covid vaccination attitude should be fairly applied across everything but everyone’s too short sighted, blind and stuck in a covid dominant frame of mind. I dread to think how many millions or billions is spent every year on such admissions as heart disease due to smoking etc etc. There’s a fair bit of selective thinking going on.


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Sun 19-12-21 9:28; edited 1 time in total
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@jirac18, if your plan came in, I would keep the fridge door shut.

Perhaps it would have the same affect on anti vaxers if they were refused medical care
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@Frosty the Snowman, but in the meantime maybe the anti-vaxers are thinking well if you’re going to treat wilfully obese, unhealthy, smoke riddled alcoholics in a free health system I’ll get me some of that free treatment too even though I’m not vaccinated.

Of course I don’t know they think that coz I’m not an anti-Vaxer and have done everything so far required or mandated of me
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We’re not calling you an anti vaxxer, we’re saying you are pointing out false equivalences!
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@jirac18, I could understand triage and a healthier person being prioritised over me in hospital if they were in crisis.

Anyhow, off for another waffer thin mint.
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@jirac18, how about people who injur themselves when taking part in sports during an NHS crisis?. Perfectly preventable,especially for skiers.
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