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Long range forecast

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Who do you use for a 14 day forecast? Trying to figure out where to go for early December.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Nobody knows what the weather will be in 2 weeks. Sorry, but true.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/white_corries_glencoe
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
I often look at this:

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/16days.asp?zipcode=Tignes&locationID=67203&lat=45.5&lon=6.9

It gives an indication of its confidence for each forecast and from the 22nd of November all of its forecasts have its lowest confidence rating
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
I often look at this:


















While it's fun to look out at 14 days to get gauge and built excitement for an upcoming holiday, I think it's quite dangerous to use it to plan as you could end up very disappointed. Hang on till 7 days out if you can as it'll give you at least a bit more certainty (or just aim high at somewhere that already has a base).


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Fri 12-11-21 14:32; edited 1 time in total
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 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
For the Alps I wouldn't trust any forecast beyond 2 days, unless a high pressure area had parked itself.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@WASHOUT, just to add, there's a potential dump of snow on the horizon for Monday (not on all the weather forecasts/models, so in no ways guaranteed, so may not happen), just it's worth keeping an eye on that. For example, if that happens, it's forecasting 30cm for Val Thorens so they should be in a good place come early December (as anything that falls now at that height should stick).
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I have been let down to many times to take the forecast as fact but it still can be a guide.

Pretty flexible where I ski in Dec, was hoping to tag along in the neighbor hood to the PSB but haven't ruled out canada (if its open ). Will be a last minute booking maybe same day booking!
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Some snow expected in Glencoe and Tignes at the end of the two links above ....

30 Nov for Tignes, 25 Nov for Glencoe.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
In my opinion the most accurate forecasts are those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Previously many of their forecasts were not open but recently they have made many of their forecast products publicly available:

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/

A really nice thing with this site is that it you click a point on a map it will produce a "meteogram" (time series of the forecast + measure of uncertainty) for that location.

There is also the extended range forecasts (out to 46 days ahead). These are generally presented as weekly anomalies from climatological average and they use the ensemble forecasts. Once these forecast charts show no anomalies, it means the model is just predicting climatology so there is no real skill.

Personally I think its very difficult (impossible?) to accurately predict which part of the European Alps will have more snowfall beyond 1 week ahead - unless as mentioned above a strong high pressure develops.

Currently a strong high is predicted to develop in the North Atlantic next week (22-29th Nov) which will cause below average temperatures over most of NW Europe and the Alps. The below average temperatures in the Alps also seems to be in the forecast with some confidence the 1st week in December.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Temperature is set to drop in Glenoce by 25 Nov, -5C to -9c during the day on 25 Nov and 26 Nov.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
The cows in St Anton.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@DB, Is that why he walks funny? Very Happy Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Glencoe/6day/mid

6 day forecast more specific to Glencoe ski resort altitude. Looks fairly consistent with snowfall and cold weather expected on 25 November.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I often like to hear the 'old timers' comments, you know the type of thing - "the Genepy blossomed before St Scrunters birthday this year, long hard winter ahead". About as unreliable as it gets, but I still enjoy it (especially if the forecast is "long hard snowy winter").
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Cairngorm, Glenshee and the Lecht look like they will be getting more snow though....

Cairngorm in particular looks forecast for a heavy dump at the weekend.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I often use Snow Forecast for to get a general feel, but it changes so much I wouldn’t make any decisions based on anything more than 48 hours out.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=155810&highlight=&sid=7dbecbdcbd4ea77c050e7aa37e8729d7
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
We all like to get some sort of re-assurance that there will be snow in the resort for our hard earned holiday but it does make me smile when I recall going skiing back in the early 1980's - no internet obviously, just a weekly snow forecast the week before you depart in the back of a quality weekend newspaper which may give you some sort of idea / hope!

After leaving the airports we we coach transfer to the resort and it was only then - as we made our way along snow free roads and fields we considered what we would do if there wasn't actually any snow there.
We never had to spend a holiday mooching around Salzburg or Innsbruck, the snow was always there just maybe not as good or plentiful as we would like but that will always be the case?

People are desperate to ensure they do get snow and despite global warming so many resorts have snow making options (in the right conditions of course) that there will always be something to ski on.

Despite so much information and direct webcam feeds available we seem to fret more than we ever did previously about the weather and conditions?

Anyway, enough of this anxiety (I don't think anxiety had been invented back then?) building discussion - I'm off now to check snow depths, conditions and webcams - for my holiday in late January
Laughing Laughing
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@rjj501, I find this a much better site than snow forecast - https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/week/chamonix_france_3027301

Sure, it changes as often as the models do, but it's a more complicated blend of the models and seems to work a lot better. (It works for pretty much anywhere).
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 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
Thanks @under a new name, I'll keep an eye on Meteo Blue this season. I already like it as it's predicting a decent bit of snow for this weekend...! Haha
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Looks like the snow expected tomorrow in Glencoe will be rain instead. (although it will probably still be snow on top) Cairngorm is still predicted to get a big dump on Friday though.
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