Poster: A snowHead
|
Who do you use for a 14 day forecast? Trying to figure out where to go for early December.
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Nobody knows what the weather will be in 2 weeks. Sorry, but true.
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
I often look at this:
While it's fun to look out at 14 days to get gauge and built excitement for an upcoming holiday, I think it's quite dangerous to use it to plan as you could end up very disappointed. Hang on till 7 days out if you can as it'll give you at least a bit more certainty (or just aim high at somewhere that already has a base).
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Fri 12-11-21 14:32; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
For the Alps I wouldn't trust any forecast beyond 2 days, unless a high pressure area had parked itself.
|
|
|
|
|
|
@WASHOUT, just to add, there's a potential dump of snow on the horizon for Monday (not on all the weather forecasts/models, so in no ways guaranteed, so may not happen), just it's worth keeping an eye on that. For example, if that happens, it's forecasting 30cm for Val Thorens so they should be in a good place come early December (as anything that falls now at that height should stick).
|
|
|
|
|
|
I have been let down to many times to take the forecast as fact but it still can be a guide.
Pretty flexible where I ski in Dec, was hoping to tag along in the neighbor hood to the PSB but haven't ruled out canada (if its open ). Will be a last minute booking maybe same day booking!
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
Some snow expected in Glencoe and Tignes at the end of the two links above ....
30 Nov for Tignes, 25 Nov for Glencoe.
|
|
|
|
|
|
In my opinion the most accurate forecasts are those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Previously many of their forecasts were not open but recently they have made many of their forecast products publicly available:
https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/
A really nice thing with this site is that it you click a point on a map it will produce a "meteogram" (time series of the forecast + measure of uncertainty) for that location.
There is also the extended range forecasts (out to 46 days ahead). These are generally presented as weekly anomalies from climatological average and they use the ensemble forecasts. Once these forecast charts show no anomalies, it means the model is just predicting climatology so there is no real skill.
Personally I think its very difficult (impossible?) to accurately predict which part of the European Alps will have more snowfall beyond 1 week ahead - unless as mentioned above a strong high pressure develops.
Currently a strong high is predicted to develop in the North Atlantic next week (22-29th Nov) which will cause below average temperatures over most of NW Europe and the Alps. The below average temperatures in the Alps also seems to be in the forecast with some confidence the 1st week in December.
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
Temperature is set to drop in Glenoce by 25 Nov, -5C to -9c during the day on 25 Nov and 26 Nov.
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
The cows in St Anton.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
I often like to hear the 'old timers' comments, you know the type of thing - "the Genepy blossomed before St Scrunters birthday this year, long hard winter ahead". About as unreliable as it gets, but I still enjoy it (especially if the forecast is "long hard snowy winter").
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
Cairngorm, Glenshee and the Lecht look like they will be getting more snow though....
Cairngorm in particular looks forecast for a heavy dump at the weekend.
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
I often use Snow Forecast for to get a general feel, but it changes so much I wouldn’t make any decisions based on anything more than 48 hours out.
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
Thanks @under a new name, I'll keep an eye on Meteo Blue this season. I already like it as it's predicting a decent bit of snow for this weekend...! Haha
|
|
|
|
|
|
Looks like the snow expected tomorrow in Glencoe will be rain instead. (although it will probably still be snow on top) Cairngorm is still predicted to get a big dump on Friday though.
|
|
|
|
|
|