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The All New 21/22 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Both GFS and ECM predicting HUGE amount of precipitation in the W alps towards the end of the week. Carnage inducing amounts, especially with a highish FL, there may be flooding in the valleys.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
yep, average of 160mm across 7 models thurs-sat

https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/gbr/france/accumulated-precipitation/20220410-2100z.html

Most of it with a 1800-2000m FL in the NW, but dropping Sat night towards the valleys

ECM ensembles go colder a bit earlier. Would be -4 to -8c below average again into Sunday.



It makes more of the short wave low on friday (just off cornwall) compared to other models


Pulling down a brief northerly towards the alps


Should be a great end of season above 1800m


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Tue 5-04-22 11:01; edited 1 time in total
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Any suggested locations for this weekend then? Engelberg? 3vs? Chamonix?
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@8611, Somewhere high further east where the avi risk isn't going to be 4 or 5?!
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8611 wrote:
Any suggested locations for this weekend then? Engelberg? 3vs? Chamonix?


It’s going to be tricky. Somewhere high with a lift system/patrol that open up the high lifts quickly after a dump. I think Verbier has a good chance. Wouldn’t risk Cham. Maybe Tignes or Val Thorens if they can get the lifts open? You really want to be skiing above 2500m. This is from WePowder https://wepowder.com/en

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Thanks, to be honest I think its just going to be too warm to be a real powder fest. This was why I wanted to go last weekend, temps were so unseasonably low. But even reading reports it seems while it was good the soft didn't last long in the sun, which I suppose is to be expected at this time of year. Or did I miss bonanza? Powerdays at this time of year are really half day events, unless very cold and you've North Faces.

This weekend definitely aim high but I wouldn't expect conditions to be optimum so the pistes afterwards are probably as important. Engelberg as I understand it has a glacier which will help preserve the snow quality, and its just handy from Zurich also but I'm open to others too.
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The Arlberg is going to be interesting, -5 to +15 if the GFS is to be believed!

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8611 wrote:
This was why I wanted to go last weekend, temps were so unseasonably low. But even reading reports it seems while it was good the soft didn't last long in the sun, which I suppose is to be expected at this time of year. Or did I miss bonanza? Powerdays at this time of year are really half day events, unless very cold and you've North Faces.


It was blower on Saturday in the trees, still fab on Sunday when the sun came out (but transformed in the PM on lower South facing slopes) and still great yesterday on the North faces above 2500m. Today there will still be pow on the shady North faces

This is from a mate who skied yesterday
https://www.instagram.com/p/Cb7oNKrsdy-/?utm_medium=copy_link
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Yep, good guide could still get soft alright. How bad, I think I may have to indulge. Unlikely to get a better opportunity this season.
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Hi all,

I would like to revive this thread, as it gone quiet for almost a week. We are currently in Zinal with a magicpass, options are to stay here next week, drive to Saas Fee, or just go home depending on snow conditions.

From what i could gather, last week the forecast for next week was lots of new snow, so was wondering what the view of the collective wisdom of SnowHeads is now?
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@DTB, there’s lots of new snow coming first part of next week should be great
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@DTB, yes it would be good to have the resident experts interpret all the weather pattern models for us.

Most of the noddy forecasts suggest snow in the next couple of days but then warming up again till Tuesday. However there do seem to be hints of cooler temperatures and even more snow from Wednesday - or is that just optimistic thinking because we are due to be visiting next week?
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DTB wrote:
Hi all,

I would like to revive this thread, as it gone quiet for almost a week.


Puzzled
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You know it makes sense.
Incoming!
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DTB wrote:
Hi all,

I would like to revive this thread, as it gone quiet for almost a week. We are currently in Zinal with a magicpass, options are to stay here next week, drive to Saas Fee, or just go home depending on snow conditions.

From what i could gather, last week the forecast for next week was lots of new snow, so was wondering what the view of the collective wisdom of SnowHeads is now?


The front is a Westerly and then North Westerly so Zinal slightly better positioned than Saas Fee to benefit from the snow between now and Saturday. Sunday and Monday could be nice powder days if avi conditions allow. From Tuesday on with warm temps coming back Saas Fee might be a good choice with the extra altitude and glaciers.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
FL fluctuating between 1600 to 1900/2000 m over the next couple of days around the NW Alps

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person


https://www.meteoalpes.fr/bulletin/alpes-du-nord/?fbclid=IwAR2dWz5V42gAxQlbR83vkaz2lWEJ-UJuBUWSVII-ucpxRV_gmB46p2H7KaE
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Thanks @kitenski. Current webcams seem to suggest the snow line is around 1600m at the moment in line with those predictions - which means conditions are going to be trashed by rain lower down. I hope snow will extend lower tonight and tomorrow but prospects aren't that encouraging for next week.
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@j b, next week looks like decent spring skiing?? cold nights, blue sky & sunny days. Perhaps a bit warm, but cooling down again a bit midweek from what I see??
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Beautiful views of the alps past couple of mornings, white coated mountains from Salzburg to the Zugspitze. Some snow forecast with high winds this weekend (guess high lifts will be closed) but dont think as much snow as further west. After that spring seems to be on the way back, up to 20 degrees next week, though a bit less in the mountains.
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@kitenski, here's hoping so. I am worried that the nights won't be cold enough to balance the April sun during the day. But we will aim to enjoy what we find, particularly our daughter who wants her skiing fix after 2 years.
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kitenski wrote:
@j b, next week looks like decent spring skiing?? cold nights, blue sky & sunny days. Perhaps a bit warm, but cooling down again a bit midweek from what I see??


Looks very warm to me next week. Question is how much damage does the rain Thurs/Fri do and is there enough colder snow on Saturday to get us to Easter.

Above 2000m should be fine but below could be tricky.
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Currently snowing hard in Saas-Fee! Very Happy
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I'm off to the PdS for a couple of weeks this Friday. Packing my much abused race carvers for morning ice, and far less abused (it's been a long time since I had a real powder day) Preachers for afternoon slush! Not going to be an off-piste holiday, and indeed everything except Avoriaz will be closed in the second week anyway.

This is about some nice, gentle T-shirt skiing, at season end. Last season I spent out there, in 2018-19 (where does the time go?!), that end of season bimbling about was a great joy. That said, that year everyone had gone home - this year, I expect it to be pretty crowded due to Easter/the first season post lockdown.

Who cares about the weather. As long as it's not actually raining, any piste is better than one's desk, right? And if it is raining, any restaurant is better than one's desk, for sure...
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@Harry Flashman, wouldn't the preachers do all day and save you having to get back to the accom and swop skis? I'm in a similar boat, just packing my R98s with bindings installed and my QK'd Volkl Speedwalls and see what the snow is like!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I can confirm that the above forecast from the Swiss is defo happening here in La Thuile

All yesterday snowing above 1700
About 20-30 cms above Les Suches 2000
Very windy... all top lifts closed
International connection closed
In the villages It's been raining all yesterday and still is at 7am this morning
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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WePowder prediction - Cham / Aosta valley / Vanoise for the win! Northern side with more of the cold stuff on Saturday though…


Snow amounts
Our snow map gives a pretty good picture of the snow distribution until Sunday. The Western Alps between the Ecrins and Wallis / Berner Oberland will get lots of snow in the high mountains (> 2000m). There will be 50 to 80 centimeters of snow on a large scale. Around the Mont Blanc massif, over a metre of snow is possible, but the wind will be very problematic.

Initially, all regions east of Valais will receive only 10 to 25 centimetres of snow, but here the snowfall from the cold front on Saturday will bring 20 to possibly 30 centimetres of snow, locally even more in e.g. Arlberg. The advantage is that this snow will fall with a low snowline.
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kitenski wrote:
@Harry Flashman, wouldn't the preachers do all day and save you having to get back to the accom and swop skis? I'm in a similar boat, just packing my R98s with bindings installed and my QK'd Volkl Speedwalls and see what the snow is like!


Absolutely, but I LOVE a bit of early morning ice and hard pack on my Heads! I'll be driving, so just bomb down to car when the snow turns and pick up the waterskis Very Happy
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@Harry Flashman, enjoy!
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@8611, saw you posted on WePowder. Did you make a decision? I am biased but think Verbier would be a good choice for tomorrow as it opens up quickly, compared with Chamonix for example where almost everything is closed today. Even today in avi 4, 46 out of 72 lifts are open including the Funispace up to 2700m.
https://verbier4vallees.ch/fr/informations-utiles/horaires-ouvertures-live

Sunday and Monday look like cracking days everywhere!
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@BobinCH, I'm torturing myself here about it

Geneva flights bad times and prices, considering Zurich or Turin to verbier, or Turin to Aosta or 3 valleys

Or just leaving it and maybe hoping for some piste skiing in the sun over next two weeks

If I did verbier which resort would you recommend for quick access to the highest terrain? Haven't even looked at piste map
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8611 wrote:
@BobinCH, I'm torturing myself here about it

Geneva flights bad times and prices, considering Zurich or Turin to verbier, or Turin to Aosta or 3 valleys

Or just leaving it and maybe hoping for some piste skiing in the sun over next two weeks

If I did verbier which resort would you recommend for quick access to the highest terrain? Haven't even looked at piste map


If you fly to Zürich you could try Engelberg or Andermatt all doable by train I think? Should both get some decent snow down low on Saturday

For Verbier either stay in Verbier or Le Châble. Equally quick mountain access.

Turin probably good for Courmayeur - Hellbronner could be great Sunday / Monday. From the top you can ski to Chamonix via Vallée Noire. It’s a classic
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Doesn’t seem to be forecast to be as warm next week as predictions were saying before?
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@BobinCH, yes Engelberg would work out great with train but wanted to follow the heavier snow. Probably an unnecessary dragon chase though.

In any event I've dilly dallied too long and my wife has commitments. So I think I'll let this one slip, again.

Expect to see me back next week with more vacillation. Possibly related to Verbier as I really want to ski it and it would be ideal sunny piste destination at this stage too.
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This was yesterday mornings 24hr fresh snow showing snowfall varying a lot locally. Shame Les Marecottes closed last weekend!
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8611 wrote:
@BobinCH, yes Engelberg would work out great with train but wanted to follow the heavier snow. Probably an unnecessary dragon chase though.

In any event I've dilly dallied too long and my wife has commitments. So I think I'll let this one slip, again.

Expect to see me back next week with more vacillation. Possibly related to Verbier as I really want to ski it and it would be ideal sunny piste destination at this stage too.



Tee hee, my missus woke up with a head cold and cancelled commitment so Verbier here we come

Anyone out and want to share a guide tomorrow or Mon or do handy side piste without one PM me

BobinCH I've seen your kids' level already ski 6 times above me so you're exempt Wink
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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Friend of mine reported waist deep powder on the backside of Mont Gele on Saturday. Having spent four months in Verbier I managed to miss it Eh oh!
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Davidgdg wrote:
Friend of mine reported waist deep powder on the backside of Mont Gele on Saturday. Having spent four months in Verbier I managed to miss it Eh oh!


Wasn’t quite waist deep but it was good snowHead

http://youtube.com/v/k1Kq_92-xdk
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BobinCH wrote:
Davidgdg wrote:
Friend of mine reported waist deep powder on the backside of Mont Gele on Saturday. Having spent four months in Verbier I managed to miss it Eh oh!


Wasn’t quite waist deep but it was good snowHead

http://youtube.com/v/k1Kq_92-xdk


And I don’t recommend doing your retro 80’s Elho and jeans day on a blower powder day. It was like sticking a hose in your ski boot!
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