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The All New 21/22 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@polo, cheers! BTW Do you know how to view the latest versions of the GFS summary? The link I had for the Arlberg seems to only ever show the 00z run

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=2547&var=201
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@kitenski, don't know where that link comes from, but you can use this one....select place, model and run (bottom left)

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=2547&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1

Hadn't noticed that site also has a 'new snow depth' chart as well...think it's based on 6hourly intervals, so tomorrow's average of 5cm per interval (white line), is 20cm over 24hrs...based on ensemble mean?

ski holidays
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@polo, thanks, it was the source image and it used to always show the latest without having to pass any variables so I kept it on a little page I made to keep webcams etc all in one place!
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I'm feeling a little fickle.. I've spent the last few weeks desperately hoping for a nice top up of snow before our Easter trip. Now it's actually snowing, I'm nervously looking ahead at the forecast hoping we might get a bit of sun! rolling eyes rolling eyes Still another 10 days till we go to VT..
ski holidays
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Looks like we could be skiing 50cm of cold smoke at the weekend. Woot woot
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@BobinCH, you're always bigging up the numbers in Verbier. Maths says 49cm.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
My fingers make the total 50 cms
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Pamski, he said weekend wink

All starts in earnest tomorrow, I still haven't waxed or charged the gopro....guess the gopro is more important on a powder day
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@Handy Turnip, Sun is for beach holidays. Bring on the snow!!! snowHead
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@polo, you’re expecting it to be deep if you’re waxing your GoPro. Eh oh! Eh oh!
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
leggyblonde wrote:
@Handy Turnip, Sun is for beach holidays. Bring on the snow!!! snowHead


Laughing Laughing yes, I guess you can't ski without snow, but you can without sun!

I've been lucky with my trips, but (with Covid) it's the first family trip for 3 years and feeling like I'm having to re-sell the idea a little - and it would be easier with sun, blue skies and outdoor lunches.. rather than wall to wall whiteouts.

But that's the beauty of the mountains I guess, and it'll be awesome whatever the weather!!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Next week is looking greyer and greyer in Obergurgl (and presumably over much of the Alps)... I was hoping for a week of 12hr/day sunshine after the snow of the next 3 days...
ski holidays
 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@rogg, true Very Happy , will it still hear the voice command though? If I use a house iron?
Couple of short term models show the potential to sat morning

Harmonie, is well regarded, and looks accurate to me


Arome


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Thu 31-03-22 17:45; edited 1 time in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Handy Turnip, I'd suggest its very unusual to have a completely cloudy week without any sun in april in the Alps...
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@kitenski, yes fair point. I'd take just one day skiing and lunching in the sun (that's the day I'll take the camera out, and the kids will look back in a few months and believe it was sunny all week Laughing Laughing )
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
polo wrote:
@Pamski, he said weekend wink

All starts in earnest tomorrow, I still haven't waxed or charged the gopro....guess the gopro is more important on a powder day


I can hardly contain my excitement. Standing by for more Ranfolly face shots rolling eyes
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@zzz, face shots? Is that when your face is covered in snow? Mostly happens to me on wipeouts on Ranfolly. But no one is twisting your arm.

Gotta be better than slush shots
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Which way will it go on the 7th.....

GFS, great little model


ECM meh
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All too late. What’s it going to be like in Zermatt February 2023?
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Let's not talk about the possible dribble's we might see down in our neck of the woods Sad

For sure we might get 10cm+ but that will be gone in a couple of hours.

Was most amusing hearing the "whoops" as people ripped 2cms of fresh this morning Laughing

The forecasts are changing so much from one run to the next, so back to looking out the window, or not?

So last night went to sleep with the possibility of some brighter weather this morning and some piste blasting.

I awoke looked out the windows after opening the blinds and saw glimpses of sunshine and thought game on, whilst the OH opened up the blinds and looked up the valley which was in cloud and wanted to go back to bed Laughing

Just goes to show, as the same happened with a mate who too looked up the valley, who thought no decent skiing on the cards and had packed to transfer elsewhere.

Now we have the most frustrating of forecasts over the next 3/4 days with various sites all in disagreement!
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Snowing at 400m around geneva this morning, webcams look pretty bleak higher up

Even bigger differences on the 00z re. the 7th, GFS doing it's own thing again but this time with the best solution, other models look westerly and wet
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
DERBY De La MEIJE just cancelled

ATTENTION - INFO COMITE SECURITE COURSE
Nous vous informons que nous avons pris la décision d'annuler la course.
Raison : non possibilité de vol de notre hélicoptère de secours médicalisé pour cause de météorologie défavorable.

Lots of talk of Retour D'Est in various forecasts, and currently Abries showing 30cms overnight into tomorrow, though don't think that's worth a road trip.

Middle of next week looking amazing but as ever watch that disappear as we get closer.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Weathercam wrote:
Was most amusing hearing the "whoops" as people ripped 2cms of fresh this morning Laughing


Heaven forbid people on holiday having fun, whatever next, having a beer and smiling after a day out??
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@kitenski, actually have my daughter's out this week and I'm being Billy Punter, lunch on the mountain most days and après drinks, few dinners and a couple of past mid-night bar sessions etc etc costing me a small fortune Laughing

Luckily they're not into sking the whole day.

If we get the overnight snow that is forecast normal rules will be applied......

No family on a powder day Laughing
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GFS 06z Op and it's entire ensemble suite has unfortunately ditched the idea of a northerly on 7th, belatedly joining other models with a westerly outlook.....could be very wet below 1500m, with FL maybe rising to 1800m in NW alps towards end of next week. Hopefully wrong, but that's how it looks right now. A lot of snow likely above 1800m though.
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Weathercam wrote:
@kitenski, actually have my daughter's out this week and I'm being Billy Punter, lunch on the mountain most days and après drinks, few dinners and a couple of past mid-night bar sessions etc etc costing me a small fortune Laughing

Luckily they're not into sking the whole day.

If we get the overnight snow that is forecast normal rules will be applied......

No family on a powder day Laughing


You look after the fam. Don’t worry we’ll attach cameras to our snorkels and send you pictures so you don’t feel you’re missing out
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I'd like to inform the occupants of this thread that after a day of head scratching, fruitless texting and going through my contacts to find some forgotten ski buddy, I've made the difficult decision not to jaunt out to Switzerland for a day and a half alone to lap up the cold smoke blower pow.

I'd ask that posters respect my personal decision at this difficult time and refrain from posting snorkel footage.
ski holidays
 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
40cm so far. Another 10cm today pls before the bluebird tomorrow
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@polo, gfs 00z restores the faith for Easter weekend looking at the ensembles for the arlberg.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@kitenski, yep very unusual to see it back track again. Normally when one model caves in and joins consensus that’s it, everyone on same page. So this latest twist is also a good signal that there has to be some compromise from others……2-3 degrees obviously makes a difference to quality of snow at all levels.

I’d be more confident now there will be some N/NW component, though you don’t see it on ECM yet (+120 and 144 charts are poor). UKMO gets there on the 8th…..so it’s more split now

Will resolve soon either way. Am offski…..still snowing heavily, got stuff to shred
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
That looks fantastic non?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@BobinCH, yes, but why does it say Sun 22 Nov 2020 at the top??
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
GFS 12Z Shocked
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Minus double digits again on Ben Nevis by Wednesday.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
polo wrote:
@BobinCH, you're always bigging up the numbers in Verbier. Maths says 49cm.


The jury’s still out on whether it’s 49cm or 50cm….
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Yesterday was a superb example of how wildly different the weather can be in the Mountains over a relatively small area.

Serre Chevalier had circa 10cm forecast, Friday night into Saturday morning, we ended up with a dribble and stupidly strong winds that closed most of the lifts.

Meanwhile, 8km down the road Briancon, was white, then 12km as the crow flies Montgenevre had 30+cm, and where we ended up, Claviere 14km at altitude 40cm and a light breeze, and a friend who I suggested should go to the Queyras, which is 32km by crow, had 50cms.

A classic Retour D'Est

Then North of the Lautaret, Northern French Alps respectable amounts too.

We really have missed out this season rolling eyes

Anyway was a good road trip and finally, have one daughter enjoying off-piste, trees, along with some combat skiing Laughing


This was quite steep and deep


A little bit more mellow


But it was quite tough seeing some awesome lines being put in up in the bowls dropping in from Montgenevre Sad
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Same this side of the Lautaret. Maybe 20 cms here but the Chartreuse had 50 odd CMS.

Any more news on the FL for Thursday and Friday as seems quite a big snow/rain system.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I assume there is some kind of error in the Wepowder models predicting 2 meters of snow for the high alpine this weekend?
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Er, does there appear to be too much snow now? Can they stop predicting 20-50cm per day for when we get there this coming weekend and predict some sunshine please.
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appears to be snowing again in the Arlberg with more on the way, only concern is the warmth over the coming weekend and wether that results in r*** or snow!
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