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The All New 21/22 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Time for admin to make sticky and replace 20/21?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person

some optimism for early Nov south of the alpine ridge for Zermatt/Cervinia
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@twoodwar, yes definitely an interesting phase coming up into the new month. NAO still negative, while AO goes positive and strat winds recovering from current weak state back to slightly above average by week 2-3.
Am not concerned about the arctic pattern (AO) as the polar vortex is in tatters.....ie not indicative of westerly mild atlantic flow. NAO is staying weak due to high pressure in north atlantic.

Easier to view a chart....GFS (below), ECM and GEM all agree for day 10 mean pressure to show a very similar pattern to last week with Canada / Greenland high and trough near the UK. The main difference this time around is high pressure is also forecast over north Russia / eastern europe. So this should help slow down the normal west-east movement, and with a bit of luck europe could be stuck under the trough wedged between two high pressure blocks.



There were some signs on the 00z GFS Op of disruption in the northern med (genoa low), leading to spikey looking ensembles.....long caveats, short on skill at that range of course.

Purely for illustration (also GFS 00z), this is what I'd like to see the jet stream doing....arcing over an atlantic ridge and bring NW/N flow to the alps.



But on this week 2 ECM mean anomaly (covers 1-8th Nov), you can see the chance of a more southerly (SW) jet with the low pressure anomaly more positively tilted (meaning it's alinged SW-NE instead of NW-SE).
At least there is a decent signal for low pressure somewhere over europe while we wait for details to firm up.

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@polo, I could not have put it better myself Laughing
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
So, is it going to snow?
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@telford_mike Yes! Very Happy But if you want to know where, when and how much you will need to wait for someone more knowledgeable to come along.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
First low should arrive in the NW early hours of the new month on Monday with a FL around 2500m, eventually dribbling down below 1800m.
Second low arrives early on Wednesday 3rd with widespread snow possible to low levels (FL's below thurs am). A bit hypothetical still at this range, but all models have been quite steady with the output, so a few more days to go to be sure.



ECM view of snow depth out to next thursday (map being set to switzerland, so anyone south of grenoble or east of Innsbruck might want to click the link and refocus it....other models will appear at top of the chart link to compare over next few days)


https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/euro/switzerland/snow-depth/20211104-1800z.html

UK total precip for next week


And one for the geeks...Amy Butler has plotted 64 years of SSW's using QBO (x) and ENSO (y). Handy for future reference. Can see 2021 SSW featured top left as it was W-QBO and moderate La Nina. This winter is supposed to put us in the most likely box (bottom left) as we are entering easterly QBO and La Nina....a combination that has produced 7 SSW's in just 6 winters. Noteworthy though that you'd need quite a deep E-QBO (-20) as the weak signal years (0 to -15) haven't produced any SSW's.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@polo, be great if this came to pass snowHead
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@twoodwar, yep sun-mon unlikely to change much, starting with a very high snowline.....wed into thurs is key for me to get decent first low level widespread snow on the ground...can also see latest GFS has that little disturbance over genoa same day

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polo wrote:
@twoodwar, yep sun-mon unlikely to change much, starting with a very high snowline.....wed into thurs is key for me to get decent first low level widespread snow on the ground...can also see latest GFS has that little disturbance over genoa same day



Yes please. That would mean weekend openings from 6th snowHead snowHead snowHead
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From virtual drought to flood.
The last 10 months has seen well below average rainfall in the northern and western half of the uk. The village of Mardale was exposed recently in the bed of Haweswater and all the lakes and reservoirs up here have been well below their October average.
That’s about to change, at least in the central Lake District, which is forecast to get 10 inches of rain (250mm) today until Friday. Honister pass has already recorded 247mm in the last 24hrs Shocked on the east side of the Pennines hardly any rain has fallen today, such is the effectiveness of the rain shadow in these southerly tropical events. This is the same set up as Storm Desmond in 2015. Just hope it isn’t going to be a recurring pattern until next April rolling eyes
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
2m of snow right on top of Obergurgl… that’d be good for my first ever December ski holiday (had to ski somewhere in 2021)

Been enjoying watching the cannon fire each morning.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Quote:
Amy Butler has plotted 64 years of SSW's using QBO (x) and ENSO (y). Handy for future reference. Can see 2021 SSW featured top left as it was W-QBO and moderate La Nina
Er, right... Shocked So, as someone said earlier, is it gonna snow? Laughing
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@mountainaddict, just look out the feckin window / webcam in due course Toofy Grin
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Ok I'll put some window dressing on the outlook.....though not much is changing, been a relatively smooth model output ride over the last week as t zero enters the reliable.

Improvement in the FL for Monday, peak downpour seems to be around 2100m (NW alps) and heading down to 1600-1800m eventually into Tues.
The next wave (wed) is less intense but also spread out over a longer timeline, so might get a couple of days of lightly falling snow with the FL eventually dropping below 1200m.

Can't pay too much attention to individual precip totals, have seen GFS vary from 3cm to 20cm in my area at 1200m. But showing over 50cm possible at altitude along main alpine ridge.
ECM similar...has been more consistent with output, generally at the high end of what GFS has been showing, which is unusual.

Here's Avoriaz for example, 30-40cm up top followed by sunshine and a day time max of -1C in town.


Looking further out, not much consensus on whether it turns drier of if there's another low pressure set up reloading. Day 10 mean anomalies below

GFS


ECM


Pretty sure there will be low pressure over the med and high to the west (likely too close to france)
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:
mountainaddict, just look out the feckin window / webcam in due course
Cheers polo. As I love all the squiggles and graphs so much, I would never have thought of that - best tip that's been on here in ages Laughing

Off on a seven-day Austrian glaciers jaunt a week today (locations to be determined), so excitement mounts Very Happy Will now watch the skies daily on the webcams wink
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
GFS 12z Op next 7 days



Caveat with all snow charts....none of the models agree with each other, and none of them are very good beyond 3 days. They are basically all wrong unless showing lots of snow.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
You are right. The one you post is correct because it shows about 1m of snow around Obergurgl.

That'll do.
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No it must be wrong, I want a massive Retour d'Est... Twisted Evil
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Well on the basis that more snow is more accurate then todays 06z were more correct than anything from yesterday, and just now the 12z are reaching a new level of widespread righteousness

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@polo, Scotland went from 5cm to 1cm, what more proof do we need
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Does anyone know any kind of tutorial, video, book, dictionary, masterclass or what not that enables us to understand all this jargon?
I'm very interested in this topic, but as the Germans say, "I understood train station" (I don't understand s***)
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Gustavo the Gaper,

Try this:

https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=14852
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telford_mike wrote:
@Gustavo the Gaper,

Try this:

https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=14852


Perfect, many thanks!
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@Gustavo the Gaper, this site https://www.severe-weather.eu/ has a fair amount of tutorial type posts on weather. Wepowder seem to have started doing some mountain weather related tutorial posts too https://wepowder.com/en . As much as poking through the various graphs and maps from GFS & ECM can be interesting the forecast summary on Wepowder is a much quicker way to get much of the same information (GFS & ECM are two of the main meteorological organisation which publish forecasting data used to create the weather forecasts you see on the news etc). A good place to go if you want to look at the various charts is https://www.wxcharts.com/ , no tutorial info there though. However much of the talk on this thread seems very home grown, I doubt many weather sites will tell you what "fantasy island / FI" means (it is slang for saying that the forecast is too far in the future to be reliable)
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munich_irish wrote:
I doubt many weather sites will tell you what "fantasy island / FI" means


The term Fantasy Island is used widely on weather forums. Perhaps not on wepowder as I think their articles are translated from Dutch?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@munich_irish, how had I never found wepowder before! Thanks - great website.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@denfinella, despite always having a interest in weather & climate (many moons ago I did an astrophysics degree but also was interested in geophysics, climate etc) I have never looked at weather forums (spend too much time on this one!). I had assumed the term originated in some long ago UK television programme so very UK specific. Not something the folks at Wepowder would have picked up (yes they are Dutch but the non Dutch content appears to be originated in English not mangled through a translator).
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fantasy_Island

American TV programme. I feel
Old snowHead
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
munich_irish wrote:
@Gustavo the Gaper, this site https://www.severe-weather.eu/ has a fair amount of tutorial type posts on weather. Wepowder seem to have started doing some mountain weather related tutorial posts too https://wepowder.com/en . As much as poking through the various graphs and maps from GFS & ECM can be interesting the forecast summary on Wepowder is a much quicker way to get much of the same information (GFS & ECM are two of the main meteorological organisation which publish forecasting data used to create the weather forecasts you see on the news etc). A good place to go if you want to look at the various charts is https://www.wxcharts.com/ , no tutorial info there though. However much of the talk on this thread seems very home grown, I doubt many weather sites will tell you what "fantasy island / FI" means (it is slang for saying that the forecast is too far in the future to be reliable)


Great, thank you so much!
WePowder is great, they gave a workshop a while back here in Rotterdam, I even got their book, but didn't know their website was that complete.
The layout does look an awful lot like www.wintersport.nl, I wonder if they're somehow related. (Btw, probably the best / most reliable/complete ski resort website I've seen)
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
This website is usually quite informative Very Happy It gets more detailed (in terms of snow reports and outlook) as the ski season gets underway.

https://www.weathertoski.co.uk/weather-snow/
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
New snow =
50 cm Kaprun
40 cm Zillertal / Hintertux
35 cm Sölden


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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Peter S, ‘The planes the planes!’ Also old
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Lovely view of snow covered mountains on the way into work this morning Very Happy
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Look set for decent snow in Cervinia/ Zermatt today. A start if it happens
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Snow down to village level in Cervinia, Zermatt and Les Deux Alpes. ( guess where I’m skiing from Jan?)
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
twoodwar wrote:
Snow down to village level in Cervinia, Zermatt and Les Deux Alpes. ( guess where I’m skiing from Jan?)


Zermatt all the way!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
All of them Toofy Grin
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twoodwar wrote:
All of them Toofy Grin


Why wait until January? Hosing it down in Obergurgl; guess where I’m skiing next month? (I played it safe)
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Fair point, but money sadly plays it’s part. Crying or Very sad
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