 Poster: A snowHead
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Has Austrian low disappeared for next week? 00Z seems to have fizzled out ?.
(p.s. going to Austria next week)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Not loving this one !!! So this is therefore GFS powered?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Alex A, yes that’s derived from the GFS op run. So only one run and pretty broad brush even then. But in terms of has the forecast snow disappeared for next week I don’t believe so.
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Is Bergfex from GFS as it's showing widespread snow in Austria early next week. Plus a useful amount tomorrow.
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@buchanan101, no it‘s based on ZAMG which is the Austrian met office. It is I believe derived from ECM.
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@nozawaonsen, thanks .... here's hoping GFS is barking up the wrong tree! Not seen no snow for a month in Val D'isere too often. i'm going 12-20th Feb
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @buchanan101, no it‘s based on ZAMG which is the Austrian met office. It is I believe derived from ECM. |
Thanks. Snow Forecast is possibly GFS as that is showing a lot less snow next Tuesday.
I like Bergfex 
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| Alex A wrote: |
| @nozawaonsen, thanks .... here's hoping GFS is barking up the wrong tree! Not seen no snow for a month in Val D'isere too often. i'm going 12-20th Feb |
Should've chosen Austria...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I suspect GFS is broadly correct that it will be Austria that is where the snow is focussed, but how far west it might yet end up is not yet clear.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Snow Forecast is derived from the GFS op run.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@nozawaonsen, Agree. A lot of uncertainties regarding how the high will position itself west on the Continent / Eastern Atlantic in the next week. I still think that the EC is way to optimistic for a large scale change and that the Alp region will come under some sort of high influence for large portions of the first half of February. But it all depends on how the high will stretch into continental Europe. Austria best positioned for the snow that is coming, but I think all the Northern parts of the Alps will see some snow. And although high pressure influence in the first half of February is most likely, you can have intense episodes of snow from the north, now and then. Unfortunately, not a good set up for Italy.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Alex A, no need to panic, still over 2 weeks before you go, and plenty of time for it to dump down in France - still lots of forecasts pointing to snow next week..
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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GFS starting to look quite tast for Austria this morning. The forecast bumps for next week consolidated and happily shuffling towards fruition.
Beyond that (ie the 3rd Feb) there's now some bumps and activity where there wasn't before. I'm loving the look of the Jolly Green Giant out there in FI on the 8th.
Heading out on the 5th so that looks ideal to me. Periods of visiblilty, periods of snow. Just what the doctor ordered.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Going to Verbier on the 19th, hope we get some snow renewal to hit the backcountry.
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The Northern Alps includes the NW Alps (Alpe d'Huez)?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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GFS 06z coming in from the cold, or is that with the cold, 4-5th. Top model. Or chocolate teapot?
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Not much snow though Polo. Nice spike oround the 10th
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@twoodwar Zermatt unlikely to be favoured by the N-NW'ly flow. North of the Rhône looking more promising.
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@Alex A, GFS 12z backs a little west for mon-wed as well now, still a bit shy vs others.....but showing 10-20cm (northern french alps).
Next weekend (4-6th) still looks good across the 12z output so far
The high is going to be around for a while, so relying on low pressure occasionally getting over the top and taking a NW-SE line.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I thought we all agreed before GFS is much less reliable than ECM. Over the years I have found meteoblue and yr.no to be the most reliable forecasts, and it seems every run they are dialling up snowfall for France from next week. Don't know how to post screenshots but Yr.no forecasting actual dumps Mon, Tues, weds, and Friday. Why is everyone so certain there'll be no snow in France based on gfs?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Tignes
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You know it makes sense.
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Anything on the plot regarding the white stuff arriving in Italy... Dolomites, maddona Di campiglio... 1 week to go!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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My limit of forecasting is meteociel and all of a sudden sun has changed to snow for the 1/2 and 4/5 of Feb  @polo, @BobinCH, bravo for forecasting!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The new EC monthly showing a rather consistent picture for February. NAO + for the entire month. Next week, the Lows will take a southern turn down to the Alps. North of the main Alpine ridge will receive the goods. Week 2, 3 and 4 have a consistent picture with Lows into western Norway and the south of Europe in the dry zone. Austria best positioned for snow, Italy on the dry side for the entire month. Dry in the Pyrenees.
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"Sometimes you are better off dead. There's a gun in your hand it's pointing to your head. You think you're mad, too unstable...."
@Alpinebear, you can count on the West End girls to uncover any powder clues, cautiously optimistic to the bitter end. In a twist of irony, GFS is now one of the snowiest looking models for our little corner mon-wed. And GFS 00z has managed to drop the ball for next weekend, heading towards Spain.....ah well, more drama ahead.
@zzz, top up your glass.....haven't seen a flake since Jan 9th? So 30-40cm looks like a lot of snow to me. And that's just next week.
@Woosh, yes EC46 similar, a solid block over France all the way thru Feb....but it often gets it wrong at week 2 so am not worried....one week at a time.
And we haven't seen charts like this much this winter....the atlantic was too quiet for too long....hard to say if we'll get a better second half of winter or not though
Bob, if you want to "kick in some chairs and knock down some tables" I'll be in Le Rouge tonight 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@polo, alas no but will be slaying some hardpack/itineraries tomorrow pm when the kids are in Freeride club if you fancy doing a lap
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Pretty snowy weather for Austria and Eastern Switzerland over next week. It’ll back west later in that period and there should be some (probably not huge) spillover into Italy.
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC_05Grad/180_24.gif
Heavy snow and high winds could cause some disruption in Austria at the start of the week.
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Föhn on the southside.
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Looks like the GFS is backing off on the idea of more snow after this (1-3feb) pulse for Austria.
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FAQ
Then they put the price up from my amazing price I had to another 4k more for the week!
