The All New 21/22 Weather Outlook Thread

A snowHead

@Chris Brookes,

A snowHead

Noza any thoughts on what’s to be for the next few days?

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Any idea when the snow will return to the Western Alps?! (Aosta Valley).

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Snow ramping up in the PNW and Northern Cali region.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/22/weather/atmospheric-river-california-snow-travel-forecast/index.html

Forecast for the Tahoe resorts is up to 10 feet over the next 5 days.

PNW Cascades are looking at 4 feet between now and Boxing Day.

Forecast to be a white Christmas in much of the mountain West ski resorts.

Merry Christmas everyone, and to all a white powdery one too!

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Toadman, sounds wonderful.
While here the snow promised for Christmas Day has receded into next week and reduced in amount (unless you believe Meteoexploration).
So it goes.

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Looking rather warm in the west after the 29th and into the new year.

Now looking to last less than a week.

After all it is free

Looks like some decent precipitation action between 27th and 31st but could be getting very warm. Go high or get wet!

Watching for wiggles

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In @polo we trust!

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WePowder also calling out that it’s looking pretty wet…
https://wepowder.com/en

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for a dumb, does it mean no ski? I will stay in Megeve

@RonWeltyPT, don't worry, you will be able to ski. But you might be skiing in the rain at times, especially lower down.

You know it makes sense.

@Alpinebear, I may have made one bold prediction too many.....the borderline / messy pattern has resolved for the worst. Another failed undercut from the west means the atlantic low doesn't phase with the deep scandi low to bring down cold air, instead a wedge of high pressure keeps the general SW-NE flow.

Even at t+96 there is a subtle difference in the best 2 models, ECM vs UKMO below. Should be noted that GFS was the most accurate overall for next week....GEM, ICON and JMA were all showing much better potential which has since faded away.

UKMO is the only model left showing even the briefest of a NW flow for 27-28th. Either way in the NW alps best case looks like snow to 1400-1500m on 25-26th and 28th. There might be a few flakes to 1200m or below but it won't last with temps rapidly climbing into the new year.

29th-31st looks troublesome with a FL climbing to 2500m, only hope is that high pressure continues to build and push the precipitation north of the alps.

We are in deep -AO territory so it's a missed opportunity for cold air with high pressure over Greenland. The day 10 anomaly charts all show high pressure also sitting over Europe.....so there's no sign of the next turkey chase.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Umbrellas at the ready on the 29th and Spring skiing over New Year

A snowHead

First covid, then rain, then sun burn.....happy winter holidays everyone Very Happy

A snowHead

Glad we are not going now …

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Tuesday and Wednesday are looking wet and windy at resort altitude. New Year’s Day is potentially 17c at 1450m Shocked

would that be a record?
Snow-wind-rain-dry-warmth-cool Shocked

Hopefully a short lived anomaly and not too damaging to the season.

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I would take that all day long rather than not being able to travel for the third year running to be honest, at least some of you might get a season,

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Happy Christmas! Wink

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@nozawaonsen, lovely to “see” you have a great Christmas

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Welcome back and Happy Christmas Noza

Snowing hard here in La Plagne

After all it is free

@nozawaonsen...welcome back !

Merry Christmas! Still snowing here. Heck, it hasn't really stopped since Thursday in the PNW.

image upload

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Looks like the heavy rain on Wednesday will wreak carnage on the snowpack. Not what we ordered Santa Crying or Very sad

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Happy Xmas Noza!

You know it makes sense.

So I've been watching the Wigglies for the western alps. I've seen a deal for 7th Jan, which quite tickles my fancy. I've noticed after the warm period coming that the cooling period from say the third to the fifth seems to be getting a little more cool more quickly, the ensembles seem to be coalessing with a little more agreement. Some precipitation spikes too. Glass half full and all that.......

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Absolutely ridiculous chart from the ECM today. 4000m+ freezing level and temperatures widely 10-15C above average across the Alps. Never seen anything like that in winter.

.

A snowHead

A snowHead

Goodbye 2021. 2022 looking a bit more promising!

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@Mouse555, pretty sure most years have very warm spells recently? Indeed I recall sitting outside in just a T shirt many January’s ago!

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@kitenski, Always rains at NY holidays , those currently skiing should count themselves lucky with the snow cover from the early December snowfalls . Remember just as many warm and rainy new year ski trips as cold and snowy ones and even a few green ones .

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No, it has never rained up to 2800m in Dec/Jan in my 15 years in Verbier. Warm spells yes, dry spells sure but not like this

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@BobinCH, silver lining for your area might be that the precipitation is so heavy that it might lower the snow / rain limit a bit. (Still not ideal though!)

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It is pretty extreme. These charts, averaged over the last 30 years, show that on average January in Verbier would have 0.8 days with temperatures above 5 C, and 0 days > 10 C.

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/verbier_switzerland_2658168

After all it is free

@BobinCH, Err Yes but my I’ve been round the block a bit . I will never forget walking the ridge at the North Face of Foglietta early Jan about 2900plus crapping myself as there was a rain layer of ice below the 20cm on top around 2008 , very unusual yes but not unheard of .

Cham meteo this morning are saying below

Snow probably continuous until nightfall - locally moderate to heavy - rain-snow limit towards 2300 m, occasionally rising towards 2600 m - possible snowfall towards 2800 m : 40-70 cm

@BobinCH: I experienced a warm spell in Les Menuires in the third week of January a few years ago. It rained for two days all the way up to 2200 meters and then on the third day it switched to snow.

So warm spells in the winter are much more common than anyone believe but I agree that this year's warm spell is special.

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My season in Switzerland PdS (Champery) in 1985 there was no snow at all until boxing Day.

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The All New 21/22 Weather Outlook Thread

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