But was it ever not thus? Were you simply kidding yourself if you thought otherwise? Time will tell.
Meanwhile in the Alps. It’s a tad warm.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The last six months have been remarkably sunny in this part of northern England and a lot drier than normal.
It would be interesting if a warming artic is leading to more blocked winters like the 1970s and 80s. A weak jet can be good news for snow in the UK (and the southern alps) if the block is in the right place.
Based on the number of sunspots multiplied by the number of strawberries and keeping in mind you can’t in any way count on this I’d say you can be pretty bang on confident that you’ll be skiing two foot of powder on a crisp sunny morning or not.
Based on the number of sunspots multiplied by the number of strawberries and keeping in mind you can’t in any way count on this I’d say you can be pretty bang on confident that you’ll be skiing two foot of powder on a crisp sunny morning or not.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Some pretty intense weather on the Czech Slovak border, tornadoes, hail. Lots of damage to buildings and vehicles.
“A level 3 was issued across northern Austria into southern Czech Republic for large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 2 was issued across the western and northern Alpine region, SE Germany, Czechia, Slovakia, and southern Poland for large hail, severe wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and tornadoes.”
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More stormy weather looking likely in parts of the Alps.
“ A level 2 was issued for Switzerland, S Germany, and parts of Austria and the Czech Republic for excessive convective precipitation, large hail, severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.”
@turms2, yes, serious impact across a swathe of Europe.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looks like this event caught out a lot of people on the Germany Belgium border. It was forecast but seems to have caused unusually high fatalities.
The rainfall looks to have been a lot less than say Storm Desmond, but in continental Europe the river systems are just not able to cope with this weight of rainfall.
Another warning perhaps of the vulnerability to parts of the UK from this type of event which can kill people.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Meanwhile the anticyclone is sat right over the UK giving great weather across the whole country.
It’s been a really good last 7 months up here. We’ve had spells of rain but it has been a lot drier and sunnier than average with a great spell of wintery weather back in January/February. Thanks to the persistent northern blocking and Slack jet stream perhaps ?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
More violent weather heading towards the Alps tomorrow.
“A level 3 is issued for far-south Germany into N Austria for large hail and severe convective wind gusts.
A level 1 and level 2 are issued for Switzerland, SE Germany, the Czech Republic, Austria and N Italy for large hail, severe convective wind gusts and excessive convective precipitation.“
@nozawaonsen, lots of big storms along the northern alpine edge, many reports of damage from Bodensee to Salzburg etc so a pretty accurate forecast. We didnt see a drop of rain in Munich!
A level 2 surrounds the level 3 mainly for (very) large hail, severe wind gusts and heavy rain.
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@nozawaonsen, There have been some absolutely epic storms this summer, and a lot more rain than usual. We were having tea on the balcony last night when the clouds started rolling in from the west down the Inntal. You could tell it was coming in at a fast pace – I'm sure this is how the four horsemen of the apocalypse came about – and then it hit very suddenly with sideways rain bouncing off next door's roof. We had to abandon the balcony, despite it having a roof. There was a lot of lightning, including quite a few strikes touching down in the surrounding fields. This morning, the road is closed at Kaunertal (landslide) and quite a few trees have come down.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Been a great summer in the West of Scotland, Dry and very sunny. currently no midges
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
noza, great to have the thread back for a new season. I have just booked for myself and a few family members for March in Cervinia( we have a new skier boyfriend for my middle daughter) It feels risky still! Updated my super snowhead status, hope it is actioned as I press submit, otherwise will be soon. Looking forward, (and hoping) for good snow forecasts. Thanks in advance for all the great work
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Only snowhead, comon Mr McMahon!
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
i think that’s the theory above is that a warming artic might mean a slacker jet and less dynamic weather in northern latitudes, including the British Isles.
Another year like this year (reminiscent of some of the late 1970s and early 80s) where we end up on the cooler drier side of the jet with easterly winds, would be welcome for UK skiers. It may also be the reason for the unusually warm and sunny spring and summer in the west this year? It seems to be linked to snowy winters in the southern Alps too. This year was a classic in the Dolomites. Problem can be that we may also get locked into the warm air for long periods too.
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Wed 4-08-21 8:01; edited 1 time in total
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Interesting couple of tweets in that context from Marco Petagna.
“ There really does appear to be unusual activity going on regarding the QBO
During much of last 70yrs there have been well defined periods of descending E/W winds in stratosphere above equator
Last few yrs a change, & now a sudden flip W to marked E..”
“ Just for those unfamiliar with #QBO or quasi biennial oscillation:
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-…
..it's an important one to monitor as we head towards next winter
Descending E winds above the equator can help weaken our jetstream increasing chances of cold weather..vice versa for W”
Very pleased to see the 21/21 thread and looking forward to a lot of fascinating insight from our experts and field reports from forum members globally.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
What La Niña would actually mean for the Alps is in any case less clear.
Still here’s the NOAA chart.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Potentially good and bad for the UK. This is what the e Meto blog has said previously
“In late autumn and early winter it historically promotes high pressure in the mid-Atlantic, which stops Atlantic weather systems from delivering mild air to the UK, and therefore can allow cold conditions to intensify. However, in late winter La Niña can drive a shift of the jet stream towards the Poles increasing storminess and heavy rainfall, while bringing milder conditions”.
@Peter S, and what about the Alps?
(me, trembling with anticipation)
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@drporat, it’s really hard to say, there’s not really a strong correlation (it’s pretty weak for the U.K. as well to be honest). And in any case it rather depends on strength and timing. Stronger La Niña events do have a correlation with colder winter weather in Alaska, PNW and Japan.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@nozawaonsen, many thanks for evth.
I will continue to wait.99 more days and Tignes will open
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Arctic stratospheric polar vortex likely to be reborn in next day or so…
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
A good piece from a couple of years ago on ENSO on Open Snow (US focussed).
Key point is that even in parts of the world where the relationship between these events is clearer than it is in Europe there is still considerable uncertainty. Doesn’t mean it’s not something that will have an impact on the weather in the Alps, just means it’s worth being cautious about having confidence what that impact will be.
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Poster: A snowHead
