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Will 21/22;season happen for the British?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Timmycb5, yes, the direction of travel is certainly towards being vaccinated OR a negative test-particularly as increasing evidence is pointing towards a big drop in transmission for those people who have been vaccinated.
My main query was unvaccinated children receiving a positive test result in the run up to their return, if airlines or the UK demand a negative test. I am not sure if I could take the risk of the consequences of this which would be to self isolate in the foreign country for another 10 days! I am sure many other families would be in the same position and it would make family holidays far less likely. Could the tourism economy and travel industries afford the economic impact? The only way round I could see is to waive the requirement for a test for under 18s....
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

you run the risk of testing positive 48 hours before return to the UK (E.g. catching CV in a gondola), and so having to remain overseas for another 10 days

This might be a killer for us for next season - even if it's unlikely, we can't take the risk of both getting stuck overseas (in a normal year, even a bad accident or cancelled flight etc. wouldn't stop at least one of us getting home with no more than a day or so of delay). But we'll see - long way to go yet.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Driving could be a solution to mitigate this. We went to France in the summer and are planning on going again this summer. Zero contact with other humans when you go via the chunnel, so presumably this may still be allowed?
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@Timmycb5, not that simple unfortunately.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Layne, yes agreed. As it would be a requirement for entry back to the UK, I don't think it would matter which mode of transport you used to return!
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I that case I guess we need to hope that community transmission is low as a result of the vaccine. Otherwise the same risk will be there forever. Of course if the vaccine does kick in and there aren't more mutations that are vaccine resistant, we'd be heading towards the pandemic being declared over (though some countries may still have epidemics declared). I guess in that instance they wouldn't even be checking?? I realise this is probably too early for this coming winter, but I'm ever the optimist.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Timmycb5, personally I am not thinking too far ahead - just looking forward to some time outdoors, being able to see family again, holiday in the UK. Sept/Oct I'll start to think about skiing in December. A lot to happen between now and then.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Layne wrote:
@Timmycb5, personally I am not thinking too far ahead - just looking forward to some time outdoors, being able to see family again, holiday in the UK. Sept/Oct I'll start to think about skiing in December. A lot to happen between now and then.


I get the shakes if I don't have at least 3 holidays in the pipeline. Already got Brittany in the summer, Scotland over Christmas and about to pull the trigger on a week in the Alps in Feb. All, some or none of it might happen, but I need something to look forward to!
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As vaccines are £2 a shot, no doubt they will soon enough be available privately for children.
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@Timmycb5, having seen several holidays, gigs, events that I'd planned to attend not happen I've become immune. Not sure what is worse - not having stuff to look forward or continually looking forward to stuff that doesn't happen.

I don't normally book Christmas ski trip until Sept/Oct anyhow so from that point of view it only becomes an issue then. Appreciate others book much earlier....
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Layne wrote:
@Timmycb5, having seen several holidays, gigs, events that I'd planned to attend not happen I've become immune. Not sure what is worse - not having stuff to look forward or continually looking forward to stuff that doesn't happen.

I don't normally book Christmas ski trip until Sept/Oct anyhow so from that point of view it only becomes an issue then. Appreciate others book much earlier....


I'm a lucky git though, so I'm chancing my arm. We were lucky to get a week skiing in early Feb 2020 (though I am fairly convinced we caught Covid when we were there, had the
loss of taste/smell, but this was before it was a known symptom) and also got to the Dordogne for a fortnight before quarantine in the summer.

I normally only book in Sept/Oct too, but we're restricted to school holidays this time and places are selling fast.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Boris wrote:
@snowhound, I was wondering that - thankfully (I think) all mine will be over 18 by then - I assume there would need to be some agreement on children.

if only there was some sort of Europe wide organisation!


I think the what ifs about kids are probably worrying unnecessarily at the moment as I'm sure tourist related businesses need the family market as much as anything. However your second point cannot be overlooked. It's entirely possible that leisure travel within the EU may be much easier on grounds of fundamental freedoms than for citizens of countries that have gone out of their way to be 3rd countries.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Doublepost


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Fri 26-02-21 19:38; edited 1 time in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
snowhound wrote:
@Timmycb5, yes, the direction of travel is certainly towards being vaccinated OR a negative test-particularly as increasing evidence is pointing towards a big drop in transmission for those people who have been vaccinated....

I think it is still unknown if vaccination stops you getting the virus, and being able to transmit it, even though it seems proven to give the individual a much less severe infection. If it remains transmissible at any level then possibly for some time even those vaccinated might still be required to return a negative test to cross some international borders.

I know airlines and cruise ships are promoting the idea of vaccination certificates / passports being a permit to travel, but they clearly have a vested interest ...
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@James the Last, Only if they get official licensing. Right now, they can only be given to 18+.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@James the Last, Didn't think the UK Govt had any plans to allow private purchases and administration of the vaccine?

I think most, if not all the manufacturers have stated a policy of not selling privately,and only supplying Governments. Maybe the Chinese and Russians might sell, but I'm sure it would need some sort or regulatory permission to be "sold" in the UK.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@ecureuil, I think it's now recently accepted that the vaccine also prevents transmission.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@MorningGory, not sure about "accepted" but the evidence is increasing - thankfully.

The idea of a private vaccine seems a way off in the UK, the only approved ones are suppled through the NHS. As @brianatab there may be people who try to profit from Chinese or Russian formulations but given they currently lack regulatory approval in the UK, if there is an agreement about "vaccination certificates" it won't include them.

The kids situation is interesting. I suspect the applications for approval didn't include them pnly because there wasn't the necessary data - because they couldn't have started the clinical trials nearly as quickly if they wanted subjects that young. But there is no obvious idea why they wouldn't work provided doses were adjusted as necessary, and I understand there are now applications for the necessary trials.
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Booked for Canada at Christmas. Really not sure it will happen though.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Well, my guess is that if people (whatever their nationality) test positive ahead of their return, it will be mandatory for them to stay put and effectively mandatory for the accommodation provider to let them stay in place. No one wants an infected family to be transferring to another apartment or hotel. And everyone in the hotel will have to stay put as well (visitors or nationals), until everyone has tested negative. The apartment owner or hotel will need to be paid: my guess is the burden will be put on the traveller and they will/won't be able to claim back from their insurer, but that'll be their problem. All this favours self-catering apartments as accommodation, rather than a hotel, because the hotel stay only needs one other guest to test positive and everyone has to be quarantined. Whereas if someone in an apartment tests positive, only the others in the apartment need to be quarantined, not everyone in the whole block. And self-drive is preferable because once everyone in the one apartment gets a negative test, then they can all get in the car and drive home the same day, given it's much easier to rearrange a Tunnel/Ferry crossing than flights for a family.
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ecureuil wrote:
snowhound wrote:
@Timmycb5, yes, the direction of travel is certainly towards being vaccinated OR a negative test-particularly as increasing evidence is pointing towards a big drop in transmission for those people who have been vaccinated....

I think it is still unknown if vaccination stops you getting the virus, and being able to transmit it, even though it seems proven to give the individual a much less severe infection. ...


I think the vax makers have always said it’s very likely vaccines will reduce transmission, and they’re now getting pretty robust data that they significantly reduce both symptomatic and asymptomatic infection (75% in one study today) - which I understand translates (not absolutely directly, but closely correlated) to a reduction in transmission. It also reduces the chances of variants arising as these only happen with infection. The vaccine news is pretty universally positive this week.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Agree that transmission is reduced, even by a single dose. But a reduction of 75% is nowhere near enough to control virus spread. The R number for the original virus is thought to be around 3-4, so that would reduce to around 1. But some of the variants, which are now the majority of UK cases, are thought to be much higher, so even if we all had a single dose then without some "lockdown" measures cases would still be increasing. The reduction probably needs to be 95+% before vaccination alone will be an adequate control measure, which is hopefully going to be achieved with 2nd doses.

The UK is on track to have a large percentage of the population fully vaccinated this year, so domestically things should be under control. It isn't yet clear to me that the EU is going to achieve that, so while we may be happy to travel other countries may still have significant restrictions. And the UK is not going to want to reimport cases next winter, possibly of vaccine-busting variants, even at a very low level, so may still require negative tests or quarantine for returning travellers. It is noticeable that the current "step" relaxation programme in England contains no commitment at all to opening up international tourist travel.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@ecureuil, I thought that herd immunity required about 70-75%, in which case 75% would be enough. Certainly not 95%.
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Vaccine efficacy is rated on the assumption that only the vaccinated person has one and all those around them do not. As more people are vaccinated we get a snowball effect on what is rated. Hence the 75% number for effective herd immunity and why a 75% reduction now is actually higher in 3 months.
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@jabuzzard, utter fantasy. They've not even managed to eliminate C19 in NZ and have just put the population of Auckland under house arrest for one case. One! It's about time that we grew up and realised that you can't control a virus in the same way you can't control the weather or an erupting volcano. You either live with the risk or never leave the house.
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@boobleblooble, certainly not a virus which is mainly asymptotic, very transmissible, respiratory and which has an animal reservoir to hide in.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
ecureuil wrote:
Agree that transmission is reduced, even by a single dose. But a reduction of 75% is nowhere near enough to control virus spread. The R number for the original virus is thought to be around 3-4, so that would reduce to around 1.


No
Because it would have to find that 1 person to infect.
5 of you sat at the table. You pass the virus to one person.
a week later, the same 5 are sat at the same table. The newly infected person passes it on to 0 people.

Post people keep the same company where they spend a significant amount of time. Home, work, etc.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@boobleblooble, The reason for the lockdown is because they cannot trace a source for that particular infection. Movement has been unrestricted in that Country in recent months, so it is possible that they passed the virus on before developing symptoms.

The daughter of the family attended a school with 1500 Pupils the week before the outbreak. Mass testing is currently taking place.

Far better to lock down a small area for a week than to let it get out in the general population in large numbers.

This action does have the support of the residents of NZ.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@brianatab, but it is as @boobleblooble says a clear illustration that zero Covid is not something practical to aim for by the UK. New Zealand never had more than 75 new tested cases a day (7-day average, and obviously in reality more in total) and that has proved too many for elimination to be possible - nearly a year later and they still have to have lockdowns and still quite have draconian restrictions on travel. With this virus, it seems that chains of undetected asymptomatic infections will always happen.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I reckon only 26 deaths and a fully functional health system is a pretty good reason to have travel restrictions, regional lockdowns, and a goal of elimination. Clearly has worked.

A reasonably normal ski season will also be nice.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@hang11, They mostly had a normal ski season, but only NZ residents could attend. Expecting another good year.
The summer tourism industry did quite well, as they all holidayed at home. They will miss the income from cruise ships, but worth the sacrifice for normality.

They have delayed vaccination as others have greater need. They have just taken their first delivery, which is to be allocated to all the staff working in the quarantine sector, and those working in the Ports, as those are most likely to come into contact with potential infection.

The next cohort will be the Island Nations, as these are very susceptible to most viruses. They expect to vaccinate the remainder in (their) late winter.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Yes, for sure. If you are vaccinated.

Canada is committed to vaccinating everyone who wants it by September. After that they're going to want as many tourists as they can get!

The passing on the virus if vaccinated question is still largely up in the air I think, but I suspect the risk will be massively reduced. If you have Covid and have been vaccinated on entry you won't end up in ICU so it won't be worth keeping you out.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:

Canada is committed to vaccinating everyone who wants it by September. After that they're going to want as many tourists as they can get!


I don't think that is true for the whole of Canada. BC seems to be aiming for everyone by September, Alberta doesn't plan to even start vaccinating those under 50 till the end of September. Also there are political reasons Canada might not open for international tourism before they can open the us border - which of course is dependent on the situation in USA. Canada has already banned cruise ships for the whole of 2021. I'd say it's still to early to say for sure what will happen. I'm more confident in Europe ski season happening than Canada though.
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https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/covid-19-vaccine-treatment/vaccine-rollout.html

It's a long way down but the feds say September, and round here they are calling the shots as I understand. Besides who skis in Alberta (this a joke). They all come here. I don't know, clearly, but fingers crossed.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Conflicting info coming from Alberta https://www.alberta.ca/covid19-vaccine.aspx

I am also hopeful, we will just have to wait and see.

Quote:

Besides who skis in Alberta (this a joke)


Some people even ski out east snowHead
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Based on this CBC article
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5925705
discussing Ontario’s vaccination schedule, and guessing about timing for 55’s and 50’s (which have not been released), I could hope to get my first shot in September, perhaps even before my 51st b-day. Still early enough that I could book a trip but the plan is for my 22 yo son to come along and who knows when he will be eligible? It would really be awful to miss two seasons in a row; one has been more than enough.
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xtr wrote:
It would really be awful to miss two seasons in a row; one has been more than enough.


If you've only missed one year of skiing then you're in a better position than many. This will be the second year many people won't have been able to ski.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I’ve always wanted to go to Canada. What’s the skiing like at Easter?
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The math around herd immunity is simple.
(NOTE: I have more explicit about the brackets so on one has to think about precedence rules.)

Code:
1 - ((1/R0) * Vaccine transmission prevention)


So given...
R0 = 4
Vaccine transmission prevention = Preventing 75% of transmission

Code:
1 - ((1/4) * .75) = 81.25%

So you need to vaccinate 81.25% to gain herd immunity

Now, given the Kent variant is estimated at
R0 = 5.5
Vaccine transmission prevention = Preventing 75% of transmission

Code:
1 - ((1/5.5) * .75) = 86.36%

So you need to vaccinate 86.36% to gain herd immunity

And that is higher than most vaccination campaigns achieve.
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@ringingmaster, there is thinking now (and I actually read something on it about 6 months ago) that with Covid the R0 is less important than the the distribution (k) as some people are super spreaders whilst others won’t infect many/any. So a combination of 75% vaccinated plus an improved and continued track and trace is what is needed.
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