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Is the 2021/2022 in doubt ?

 Poster: A snowHead
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Quote:
Such is life...people die
Agreed. But 95,000 or so have died in the UK who wouldn't necessarily have done so had an Australia or NZ-type response been implemented.

It's shocking that there are those who seemingly regard the death toll as inevitable - or acceptable as most had 'underlying health conditions.' As if they were just expendable, or collateral damage...

Even now, we have the equivalent of four or five plane crashes daily and most people just shrug...Imagine if the plane crash situation was actually happening.

Quote:
Mitigate risk....you cannot eliminate it.
Also agreed. But the opposite appears to have happened here (Delayed lockdowns; pubs reopened; eat out to help out; universities left open; Christmas knees up...etc) Confused
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
re the original question of is 2021/22 in doubt. Actually I'm very optimistic that most northern hemisphere resorts will be open next year but expect there to be some restrictions and social distancing in place. Covid will still be around but I think the balance of risk will have shifted so economies will re-open.

why ?
vaccine availability - there are currently three vaccines available with another only a matter of weeks away from approval (and no doubt others to come which will be even more effective). We'll be over the initial hump of must-have vaccinations, production issues will have been largely smoothed out so if you're in EU/UK/US/Canada etc the vaccine programme should be running quite smoothly.

Impact on number of people requiring hospitalisation. If almost everyone is vaccinated and the data is correct then we will see a massive decrease in the number of infections, the number of people requiring hospitalisation and the death rate. It sounds horrible but even if there are e.g. a STEADY 5,000 people in hospital in the UK and the death rate is at 100 people a day that level will likely be considered an acceptable loss to keep open the economies.

Economic drivers - governments will be wanting to get their economies back up and running, debt will only stay cheap for so long.

Political - There is a French presidential election in Apr 2022, an Italian election before May 2023, a Swiss election also in 2023 (the main ski destinations). Macron won't want to go into an election off the back of a winter with a closed economy, mass unemployment and massive debt. The others will want as much distance as possible between the election and the combination of deaths and economic damage.

At the moment it's easy to think this will never end. This is the worst time of year for the disease, the evenings are dark, we're all stuck at home and we see data about new milestones of deaths being exceeded every day but a year is a long time (just look back a year) and a lot can change. I honestly think Jan/Feb/March will be our 'darkest hour' re Covid.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
[quote="mountainaddict"]
Quote:
But the opposite appears to have happened here (Delayed lockdowns; pubs reopened; eat out to help out; universities left open; Christmas knees up...etc) Confused


It's ok looking back with criticism, but the reality was that, even if he Boris had wanted to lockdown a couple of weeks earlier, there was not the support for it, either in Parliament or the general population. Just remember all those who objected to it when it happened.

Same with closing the borders. Just remember the hassle with closing travel corridors for a couple of Countries (mainly from people who should never have been on holiday during a worldwide pandemic anyway.)

Immediately we went into lockdown, the media started a clamour of when we would get back to "normal". The pubs, and everywhere were probably opened too early, but the Govt was pressurised into letting it happen.

Lockdown should have been harder the first time around. Some Countries had Curfews. If our Govt had tried to introduce them, we would probably have had riots (much worse than Holland this week), as anybody and everybody who had an axe to grind would have jumped on the bandwagon.

If the Prime Minister (regardless of which party) had announced in January that he was putting aside £1Bn to purchase PPE in the event of a pandemic, he would have been accused of wasting money and panicking. Chances are he would not have lasted 'till the end of the month. But then a couple of months later, he is castigated for not making such a provision.


Yes, mistakes were made. They were made all over the World. Many mistakes were actually just decisions at the wrong time, or more often, not making the correct decision because they were politically not acceptable. Every Govt was reacting to situations that they could not control because they had no previous experience.
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richb67 wrote:
re the original question of is 2021/22 in doubt. Actually I'm very optimistic that most northern hemisphere resorts will be open next year but expect there to be some restrictions and social distancing in place. Covid will still be around but I think the balance of risk will have shifted so economies will re-open.

why ?
vaccine availability - there are currently three vaccines available with another only a matter of weeks away from approval (and no doubt others to come which will be even more effective). We'll be over the initial hump of must-have vaccinations, production issues will have been largely smoothed out so if you're in EU/UK/US/Canada etc the vaccine programme should be running quite smoothly.



A majority of French adults don’t want the vaccine.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/18/why-do-so-few-people-in-france-want-to-take-the-covid-19-vaccine

Not at all sure how the French are going to deal with this.
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@telford_mike, it's moot point at the moment as they haven't got any to give out anyway
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Quote:

Not at all sure how the French are going to deal with this

By claiming it's all AZ's fault....
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Well, the good news from today's decision to not implement a blanket hotel quarantine policy is it is, to my mind at least, a big middle finger from Boris to the zero Covid lunatics.

Hope remains for 2022, for the moment.
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Quote:

Well, the good news from today's decision to not implement a blanket hotel quarantine policy is it is, to my mind at least, a big middle finger from Boris to the zero Covid lunatics


Why is it good news? There is a risk of someone bringing back new strains into UK. I don't really see why suggesting someone should quarantine following being abroad is a lunatic idea. Telling people to home quarantine doesn't seem to work, as plenty of people seem to ignore it.

If there is no enforced hotel quarantine I will be looking to travel abroad as soon as possible (sticking to rules) for holidays. Is that a good thing? Absolutely not, really I should limit travel to zero if possible as there is a much higher risk of me not only catching but also spreading covid during international travel than at home. Also should that happen it's likely to be spread much more widely.

Imo enforced hotel quarantine is much better for public health. No enforced quarantine good for those financially well off that can afford to travel. I really think the government should be prioritising the former.
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boarder2020 wrote:


Why is it good news? There is a risk of someone bringing back new strains into UK. I don't really see why suggesting someone should quarantine following being abroad is a lunatic idea. Telling people to home quarantine doesn't seem to work, as plenty of people seem to ignore it.

Imo enforced hotel quarantine is much better for public health. No enforced quarantine good for those financially well off that can afford to travel. I really think the government should be prioritising the former.


Because 'zero covid' is a utopic policy with no end game. If such a policy was enacted, it would have to remain in place until the whole world is vaccinated (think 5 years+). It is entirely unfeasible given Britain's global connectedness and reliance on trade. It would moreover engender huge economic damage; public health and the economy are intertwined, and public health involves much more than a monolithic focus on Covid. At some point we will have to realise that the 'cure' is worse than the virus; we certainly reach that stage once the vulnerable have been vaccinated, and have arguably reached it already.


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Wed 27-01-21 23:26; edited 3 times in total
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@boarder2020, you might try and travel but Priti’s goons will stop you at the border and ask why you’re leaving the country with your ski jacket on....Right now, holidays are illegal.
Zero COvid in a country with our global connections and economic structure, with thousands of lorries going in and out of the country for example, is an economically ruinous target until the whole planet is clear of COvid. Just because we are surrounded by water does not make us an island like NZ.
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Quote:

Because 'zero covid' is a utopic policy with no end game.

You are quite right, @JackSkier, but as I've pointed out before, nobody is suggesting that we should be following a "zero covid" policy - I don't know why you keep going on about it.
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pam w wrote:
Quote:

Because 'zero covid' is a utopic policy with no end game.

You are quite right, @JackSkier, but as I've pointed out before, nobody is suggesting that we should be following a "zero covid" policy - I don't know why you keep going on about it.


I'm not sure where you are looking, but it is a huge part of media and political discourse at the moment. Both Kier Starmer and Nicola Sturgeon called for a blanket hotel quarantine policy today. Hancock and Priti Patel were both in favour of such a policy. Many are comparing Britain to Australia and New Zealand and suggesting we emulate their policies. I don't think I am being mad...
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How many countries can uk residents currently travel to easily ?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@hang11, I don't think there are any easy to travel to countries are the moment.

Search country and travel restrictions and the first thing you see is the government's website saying don't travel unless you have a legally permitted reason to do so... Virtually all will require a PCR test within 72 hrs if you have a legal reason to travel.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Not much point getting too worried about quarantine requirements then
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Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

Because 'zero covid' is a utopic policy with no end game.


Mandatory hotel quarantine for those coming in from abroad is not the same as pursuing zero covid. Mandatory quarantine is to stop new variants coming in and try to limit spread.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
telford_mike wrote:
richb67 wrote:




A majority of French adults don’t want the vaccine.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/18/why-do-so-few-people-in-france-want-to-take-the-covid-19-vaccine

Not at all sure how the French are going to deal with this.


yes, vaccine scepticism is a problem but they'll have to open up at some point so will be interesting to see how it's handled. Unlike most countries many vaccines are currently mandatory for children in France so maybe they will do something for adults and Covid. They could require adults in certain roles to have been vaccinated.

source
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29717696/
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
JackSkier wrote:
pam w wrote:
Quote:

Because 'zero covid' is a utopic policy with no end game.

You are quite right, @JackSkier, but as I've pointed out before, nobody is suggesting that we should be following a "zero covid" policy - I don't know why you keep going on about it.


I'm not sure where you are looking, but it is a huge part of media and political discourse at the moment. Both Kier Starmer and Nicola Sturgeon called for a blanket hotel quarantine policy today. Hancock and Priti Patel were both in favour of such a policy. Many are comparing Britain to Australia and New Zealand and suggesting we emulate their policies. I don't think I am being mad...


The Scottish Government was pursuing a zero covid policy last summer when it was derailed by HMG, the wider Tory party and various unionist groups unleashing the dogs of hell at the mere suggestion of restricting travel around the UK after Boris gave his "there's no border" bullshite rant in the House of Commons. The whole of mainland GB is in lockdown just now, a zero covid strategy would have meant we almost certainly could not have travelled abroad (or out of Scotland if only Scotland was pursuing the policy) but would have been able to travel freely in Scotland (or the whole UK), tourism would be open for people that live here, hospitality would have been open more or less continuously since late summer and above all else we'd still be skiing here instead of the season having crashed to a halt on 4th January!

New Zealand had a more or less normal ski season and while overseas visitors couldn't come, NZ residents couldn't travel elsewhere either and it was a very decent season commercially for the snowsports areas. Even under level 4 restrictions with skiers limited to the immediate local authority the Scottish areas would have traded viably this season, instead they are staring down the barrel of impending disaster.
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India appears to have reached, or be reaching, herd immunity status. Therefore they are unlikely to have any issues with foreign tourists visiting Gulmarg, in fact they appear to be dropping most restrictions on the 1st of Feb (don't know about travel) so may be possible to visit this year if you can find a flight
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>Impact on number of people requiring hospitalisation. If almost everyone is vaccinated and the data is correct then we will see a massive decrease in the number of infections, the number of people requiring hospitalisation and the death rate.

Not sure reduction of infectious cases or infections has been fully proven yet. But infections are less severe, so home treatment rather than hospitals.
Hence the advice remains to keep to the basics and not mix with others outside bubble.
Continue to assume everyone else is, and I am, infectious.
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The SNP has made a cock-up of its virus response, and no diversionary blaming of the English (who subsidise the Scots to the tune of nearly £2k per annum per every man, woman and child) will get away from that. Saint Nicola has done nothing substantially different to the UK government - but the Scottish meeja seldom put her on the spot. Scotland has the worst rate of care home deaths in the UK, and one of the worst overall rates of covid death in Europe, despite having a population density only one sixth that of England. Scotland is currently falling behind the other home countries in rolling out the vaccine, which is made in England and Wales (having been invented by an English university and part-funded by the UK government).

The new vaccine factory in Livingstone was funded by the UK government (89% of UK taxes are contributed by the English), as is the furlough scheme - but the supine Scottish mejeea gloss over that. My family, who are 100% Scottish and still live north of the border, unlike me, say nobody dares speak up in case the cybernats target them. Scotland is a great country, let down by a culture of victimhood which is milked by some hate-mongering nationalists.

Oh, and trying to compare a densely populated country like the UK, a great trading nation at the crossroads of the world, with isolated places such as OZ or NZ is ludicrous.
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@haggishunter, Forget your independence propaganda that the SNP tried to do everything right and the rest of the world got it wrong, and trying to blame Boris for everything.

You cannot compare any small part of the UK with NZ. They only had a handful of cases, all returning Nationals, all traceable to specific flights.
With the exception of Australians, 99% of NZ tourism is via Cruise ships, which were quickly and easily banned from docking.

Even Iceland, who identified 3 cases very early on, (all from Ischgl) struggled to control the virus, locked down and still had a second wave in late summer.

The idea that Scotland could close it's borders and operate a zero Covid policy is dreamland.
For zero Covid in Scotland, if would have effectively had to isolate itself from the outside World. It would still have to be isolated, and probably for at least the next year. (as still the case in NZ).
How would it have coped?
Would they, realistically, have been able to go about their lives as normal?
Is Scotland self sufficient in food and all other essentials?
Would it's residents have accepted isolation?
Would they have accepted periodic regional lockdowns for every single case that cropped up in the Community?

What would have been the overall economic cost? (and more importantly, who would have paid for it?)

Sturgen was able to make her own decisions to a large extent.
Scotland (particularly the Central belt) actually had stricter lockdown than most of the UK.
Did it stop the spread?

When Scotland closed the pubs, did it stop them from traveling south for a drink? I think not! (Clusters in Carlisle linked to Scots traveling for a night out?)

I never heard any suggestion from Sturgen to close the the airports!
More international passengers land in Glasgow alone on a daily basis than NZ has in a month. How much Scotland/England cross border traffic is there for international flights?

By the time the virus was identified in the UK, there were already hundreds, if not thousands of cases very widely dispersed.

Scotland had no more success at track and trace than anybody else. It failed, mostly because people did not give full details, and because many of those that were traced ignored the instruction to isolate, even if they had symptoms. Scots were no exception to this.

Welcome to the real world.
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boarder2020 wrote:
Quote:

Well, the good news from today's decision to not implement a blanket hotel quarantine policy is it is, to my mind at least, a big middle finger from Boris to the zero Covid lunatics


Why is it good news? There is a risk of someone bringing back new strains into UK. I don't really see why suggesting someone should quarantine following being abroad is a lunatic idea. Telling people to home quarantine doesn't seem to work, as plenty of people seem to ignore it.

If there is no enforced hotel quarantine I will be looking to travel abroad as soon as possible (sticking to rules) for holidays. Is that a good thing? Absolutely not, really I should limit travel to zero if possible as there is a much higher risk of me not only catching but also spreading covid during international travel than at home. Also should that happen it's likely to be spread much more widely.

Imo enforced hotel quarantine is much better for public health. No enforced quarantine good for those financially well off that can afford to travel. I really think the government should be prioritising the former.


There is also a risk of an Alien invasion........I am all for protecting about things we know and can take appropriate steps to prevent against, but shutting down everything and closing the country off for a threat that may or may not exist and that may or may not reduce the efficacy of existing vaccines is taking paranoia to new levels. People have by and large responded well to quarantine measures (across Europe and the UK generally). Asking them to go further for hypothetical threats is taking things a little beyond the reasonable.
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@FrediKanoute, +1.
Taking the precautionary route just in case of a hypothetical threat is a cul de sac and following the logic, makes it impossible to re-open borders because there is always the threat that another variant might appear somewhere tomorrow.
I can see the point of doing it on a strictly temporary basis until there is more data on just how hypothetical that risk might be-E.g. testing vaccines on new variants-and I suppose the risk of new variants becomes less with higher levels of vaccination.
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@brianatab

Would you be able to provide a link to something that supports these assertions, please?

Tried to do a quick search with little success and am genuinely interested to see the figures.

brianatab wrote:
With the exception of Australians, 99% of NZ tourism is via Cruise ships, which were quickly and easily banned.

{...}

More international passengers land in Glasgow alone on a daily basis than NZ has in a month
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mountainaddict wrote:
Quote:
Such is life...people die
Agreed. But 95,000 or so have died in the UK who wouldn't necessarily have done so had an Australia or NZ-type response been implemented.


Really? It was all over the place by early March. The UK as an international hub received too many visitors ever to have adopted an Antipodean approach.
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@jebroni3_16, To be fair, I was quoting figures from memory, and chats with relatives over there, using a bit of licence to make the point that it is much easier to close a couple of Airports, and multiple ports to cruise ships in NZ than shut down a country with many more ports, airports,and a land border.
The vast majority of air visitors arrive via Auckland.
I accept I may have incorrectly quoted % by cruise ship

Did manage to pick up these stats:
Glasgow handled 8.84m passengers 2019 (25,000/day ave) - wikipedia
(Edinburgh 14.7 m)

NZ approx 3.9m visitors, (1.4m Australian). (very seasonal)
NZ nationals 3m https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/international-travel-january-2019 (look for single line relating to annual.)

Strangely, they provide a monthly breakdown, but not annual, but January is the busiest month.
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It's highly amusing being told with such certainty about events in Scotland from people who do not live here, seen through the eyes of England's media (and in particular newspaper coverage). rolling eyes
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mitcva wrote:
unlike me, say nobody dares speak up in case the cybernats target them. Scotland is a great country, let down by a culture of victimhood which is milked by some hate-mongering nationalists.


Lol really, I've experienced first hand the abuse from self declared 'staunch' types, friends and family doxed by Rangers supporters on social medial and dubious Rangers fan forums where the intimidation is clear, that people will know that information is being put into places idiots who don't know where to draw the line might just make use of it. I know of businesses threatened for urging caution in the summer reopening, accusations that Scotland's more graduated release of the spring lockdown and anyone who supported it was anglophobic! The abuse of public health advisors and academics by unionists over the summer was (and continues to be an ongoing) disgrace.

Genetic analysis shows the first wave strains were eliminated in Scotland, local sharp lockdowns to keep it that way can work as was the case in Aberdeen in the summer, but not when there is more widespread multiple occurrences of reseeding of community transmision by large scale inbound & outbound travel from a low prevalence area to much higher prevalence area. It is just not credible to deny that England opened up nationally too soon, because HMG went on the basis of the epidemic in London and the SE when further out into provincial England was well behind on the epidemic curve timeline.

That doesn't need hindsight, because the Scottish Government did not open up at the speed HMG did in England nor at the same time. As for economic consequences, well around the globe those who have contained the virus more successfully have suffered significantly less economic damage. Indeed that prevalence was driven lower in Scotland by the staged reopening reflects that the unemployment rate is lower in Scotland than rest of the UK (ONS reports unemployment fell in the last quarter in Scotland to 4.4% and rose to 5% across the UK as a whole) and the decline in GDP is less in Scotland than the UK as a whole.

Of course there is much that was not done differently in Scotland because for one thing, the UK border is a wholly reserved matter, zero covid would ideally have been pursued at a British Isles level, not just a UK level. Brexiteers including the current UK Government have banged on about little else other than controlling our borders, yet when we most needed actual controls as a public health necessity, they did nothing.

Population density is a bit of a misnomer on this one too, much of Scotland is empty compared to England that is true, but that has an implication on lived density. Scotland is actually more urban than England, something like 50% higher proportion of people living rurally in England than in Scotland.
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Worth noting that the UK govt effectively saved Scotland from the EU's catastrophic vaccine purchase programme.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/29/we-had-to-go-it-alone-how-the-uk-got-ahead-in-the-covid-vaccine-race
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Quote:
Worth noting that the UK govt effectively saved Scotland from the EU's catastrophic vaccine purchase programme


Eh? Saved Scotland from what ?
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@paulo, Scotland would have had zero vax at this time, as they would have been unable to agree any unilateral vax deals. They would have had to wait for the EU vax approval and purchase programme to kick in.

EU is 3 months behind the curve.
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@NickYoung, Scotland would have had zero vax if what?
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If they had been in the EUs vax programme.@paulo,
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@NickYoung, I see, so you think Scotland has avoided brexit and is still in the EU?
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@Grandma Sunshine, Eh??

What on Earth are you on about?
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Quote:

If they had been in the EUs vax programme.@paulo,


But they're not. Scot indyref was over 6 years ago! You might as well say that the Brexit-voting majority across much of England 'saved' London from the EU vax programme too. Complete nonsense.
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Not only would Scotland have no vaccine if we were all still in the EU, most of the vaccine now being distributed in the UK would not even have been produced.

Not being in the EU allowed the UK to unilaterally decide to pump money into the research that led to the Oxford/AZ vaccine success.
If we had waited for the EU, we would probably all be dependent on either the USA, Russia or China for supplies, however long that took , and the Poitical consequences.
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@paulo, Wee Jimmy Sturgeon (and I think Little Lord Starmer also), pushed for the UK to join the EU VPP.

The UK govt resisted and provided funding and contracts to a variety of vax researchers/pharma. They hedged their bets.

It's entirely correct therefore, to say the UK govt saved Scotland from itself (though it wasn't me that said it).
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Quote:
"The contract stipulated that the Government would invest large sums in the creation of two UK production plants for the drug. In return, a clause stated that those plants could not supply outside the UK until the initial 100 million order had been fulfilled.

Having already signed this deal, the Government then came under severe pressure from opposition parties to drop it and join the EU vaccine scheme. Although the decision to decline was ultimately a political one, it was supported by Ms Bingham’s taskforce.

‘The conditions that the EU set to allow us to participate were conditions we felt were not attractive,’ she later told Parliament.

‘We were not able to join any decision-making on which vaccines; we had to abandon the negotiations we either had underway or had concluded with AstraZeneca; and we also were not able to talk to future potential vaccine companies that they may not be talking to currently, but would do in the future. We felt the conditions were too tight, and that we would be able to act more quickly if we did it independently.’"


"Germany, the Netherlands, France and Italy had negotiated their own contracts with AstraZeneca in June. But they were forced to wait until the end of August for a deal to be signed off, after Brussels determined that negotiations could take place only if they involved the entire block."

Just about sums it up Source:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9203435/GUY-ADAMS-UK-built-vaccine-triumph-Tory-haters-called-anti-EU-plot.html

Credit @Mr egg, Novel covid thread.
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