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Is the 2021/2022 in doubt ?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
snowhound wrote:
@caughtanedge, @Handy Turnip, My testing numbers were to try and give context to comparisons between numbers testing positive.
Re. deaths...waning immunity? When it comes to deaths, it is all about when the elderly were vaccinated not how many of the population have been vaccinated overall, given the very low chance of death (if healthy) below 60. And we started vaccinating our elderly a couple of months before the EU. So our 6 month window is coming now, theirs in Dec/Jan-and their death rates might well start increasing at that time unless they crack on with boosters-unlike the UK who seem to have faffed around.


Yes, agreed - to be clear, my post was to agree with the point you were making.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
snowhound wrote:
@Jonny996, Masks are more about sending social signals rather than having any significant impact on transmission-at least the way most people wear scruffy bits of cloth. Might as well wear a cap which says 'BEWARE OF COVID'. No correlation between how well countries are doing, and mask wearing. For every France, there is a Denmark.
But that risks thread drift so will shut up now.


+1 - The main reason that we are doing good here currently (without any restrictions) is, that people have changed the way they interact, high hygiene and respect the space of other people. These meassures is absolutely vital for keeping control, and since we have removed the masks, numbers of infected have kept declining. Respect for others have worked here.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@caughtanedge, the numbers do seem to be strange, I don't know how reliable the data is on the "worldometer" covid website, as it currently says that there are approx 850 serious/critical cases in the UK, 1050 in France and 1300 in Germany.

looking up various websites there are currently approx 8000 patients in hospitals in the UK, compared to 6500 in France, though again on the worldometer site there is only 85,000 active case in France compared to 1.5 million in the UK. Puzzled

as @snowhound, mentioned I wonder what the true figures would be if more testing in other countries was taking place?

obviously, like others i am hoping that the rates start dropping

with regards to vaccine rates, I still just hope that everyone in this country who is entitled to be vaccinated, takes this up.
I know of people in their 20's who have not taken up a vaccination, saying they are not keen on it, even though some of them were quite happy to be vaccinated for travelling to other countries, yellow fever etc, pre pandemic Puzzled Puzzled

am sure it will soon change if and when they want to travel abroad, or go to glastonbury etc!!!!!

whereas, my 17yr old has had her first jab and was due the 2nd the other week but was unwell (non covid), so is having it in a week or so, and my 14yr old is due her first in a couple of weeks time at school, and both are happy to have them.
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@Klammertime, couldn’t agree more, complete non event.
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Think if UK hits 100k cases/day, other countries will follow Morocco's lead
Totally inept of both UK Govt and population.
One thing indoor mask wearing achieves is firmly reinforcing the message that this pandemic is nowhere near over.
Standby for quarantine again traveling abroad.
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OMG.. I just took a first look at the "Scotland Snow Report" thread Shocked
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BoardieK wrote:
OMG.. I just took a first look at the "Scotland Snow Report" thread Shocked


What is causing your shock, out of interest? Puzzled
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Jonny996 wrote:
Controversial point but if France does make it difficult to enter then we can blame the English (as far as Covid restrictions are concerned) government for their lackadaisical approach to their pandemic response. Having traveled from Edinburgh to the alps last week it was blatantly obvious that the seriousness of Covid is list on most of the population in England, we went from an environment where masks are still worn routinely even without requirement to the same in France via England where masks are very very rarely seen even in busy indoor situations.
And before anyone points out Scottish numbers, that due to a incompetent government not social obedience

FIFY
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colinstone wrote:
Think if UK hits 100k cases/day, other countries will follow Morocco's lead
Totally inept of both UK Govt and population.
One thing indoor mask wearing achieves is firmly reinforcing the message that this pandemic is nowhere near over.
Standby for quarantine again traveling abroad.


I don’t think cases will get anywhere near 100k per day in UK. I actually think Javid’s played quite a clever game today. He got to say “get your booster or else” which will increase uptake but also puts pressure on GPs etc to make jabs available. If he’d reintroduced mask mandates and cases fell, Diet Sage and the BMA etc would be able to go “See!! We were right!! Now close pubs and all will be well!!”. He’s now introduced the 100k into our thinking and when cases start to fall well before that then he can congratulate us all on getting boosters and behaving.

The reason I think we could well see a fall is half of current cases are in unvaxxed under 16s. They’re getting infected at a rate of knots (c20k a day?). At some point that has to peak (as it did in Scotland schools a few weeks ago). When that falls then the overall number will fall too. Should stress this isn’t my thinking, just some borrowing from various covid twitter accounts who model this stuff, but it does seem to make sense.
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Quote:

half of current cases are in unvaxxed under 16s. They’re getting infected at a rate of knots (c20k a day?)


Good point. But when will they climax?
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andy from embsay wrote:
I actually think Javid’s played quite a clever game today. He got to say “get your booster or else”


This would hold true, if only we didn’t have to wait 6 months before getting our boosters. I'd love one, but I can't get one in the U.K. No doubt I’ll get one here in CH, but that just exposes Javid's position. He offers, and entreats us to have third jab, but he can’t deliver. Go figure.
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colinstone wrote:
Think if UK hits 100k cases/day, other countries will follow Morocco's lead
Totally inept of both UK Govt and population.
One thing indoor mask wearing achieves is firmly reinforcing the message that this pandemic is nowhere near over.
Standby for quarantine again traveling abroad.


You have hit something here - there is in my mind a feeling/perception amongst the general public that we got jabs, cases are down we are done. The general attitude is pretty much I’ve been irritated enough by measures I’m living my life at 100% now. I find it selfish and can’t understand why mask usage is so low, It feels pointless to wear a mask on the tube when no one else does.

Colleagues are coming into the office with family at home positive but they are testing negative only to test positive days later putting colleagues at risk/passengers on the tube and spreading the virus faster. This type of behaviour of putting our own interests and comfort first rather than the collective is where I feel we are failing. Frankly IMO if we all were a bit less selfish we would likely be in a much better position now.
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telford_mike wrote:
andy from embsay wrote:
I actually think Javid’s played quite a clever game today. He got to say “get your booster or else”


This would hold true, if only we didn’t have to wait 6 months before getting our boosters. I'd love one, but I can't get one in the U.K. No doubt I’ll get one here in CH, but that just exposes Javid's position. He offers, and entreats us to have third jab, but he can’t deliver. Go figure.


But you don’t need one before 6 months as there’s no meaningful waning effect, particularly against severe disease? The risk at the moment is older and more vulnerable people who had second jabs in Feb/March getting seriously ill and going into hospital.

I don’t know if any work’s been done on whether doing boosters earlier than 6 months is more or less effective, but there’s certainly loads of evidence that they provide good protection v serious disease up to 6 months.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Belgium are doing boosters at 5 months.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
colinstone wrote:
Belgium are doing boosters at 5 months.


Ok, but protection doesn’t just fall off a cliff on day 151 or whatever. Protection v serious disease is still significant well beyond 6 months and for many people boosters are possibly unnecessary.

I’m due mine now but have to wait 28 days cos of a positive PCR test - it’s arguably unnecessary for me as my mild covid cold will give me stonking protection anyway - however I expect that my jabs back in Feb-April have done the business in meaning this episode is inconvenient rather than unpleasant.
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@andy from embsay, I know, research shows drop off 5-6 months after J2.
Perhaps other countries are being a little more proactive to get ahead, allowing for a slower J3 take up.
Unlike our lot who only react when cornered and backs against the wall.
This will be just like the India Red list decision in the Spring due to the trade visit. Now we'll get the decision after COP26, a good few weeks too late.
And I don't want to catch it all. If I was a shiny arsed desk pusher, then a few days off work would be fine.
But I'm retired and busy, busy. Still on boat in France, start first day of winter ski season 1 Dec. No time for something completely avoidable, especially with an MPN.


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Thu 21-10-21 7:09; edited 1 time in total
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@colinstone, Why would the UK govt base any Covid decisions on the timing of COP26?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@colinstone, being fair to Javid (not something I’m inclined to be) I think he’s doing this to drive up demand and put pressure on jab providers - Hancock was “supply side” driven (“we’re going to do twenty gazillion tests by Tuesday!”) - he seems to be getting us all to demand our boosters so then maybe GPs and NHS trusts will open up appointments. They seem to have been what’s been in short supply.

Whatever - I’m glad he’s resisted Plan B for now as I find the “quasi HIT in kids” argument quite persuasive. Certainly James Ward, one of the best Twitter covid modellers, thinks that 100k cases a day is very unlikely unless vax waning is significantly worse than we think.
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@colinstone, Most epidemiologists seem agreed that catching covid isn’t avoidable in the long term. We’ll all get it, probably several times.
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andy from embsay wrote:
@colinstone, being fair to Javid (not something I’m inclined to be) I think he’s doing this to drive up demand and put pressure on jab providers...
Isn't he in charge of the jab providers? If he wants to open up another 600 mass vaccination centres what's stopping him from doing it?
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rob@rar wrote:
andy from embsay wrote:
@colinstone, being fair to Javid (not something I’m inclined to be) I think he’s doing this to drive up demand and put pressure on jab providers...
Isn't he in charge of the jab providers? If he wants to open up another 600 mass vaccination centres what's stopping him from doing it?


I don’t think he is, technically, is he? Certainly not at an operational level. I read that many GPs have “withdrawn” from doing vaccinations and a lot of large jab centres have scaled back.

Obviously he holds the purse strings but I think nhs trusts and GP practices have a fair degree of autonomy- hence you saw different approaches back in the spring.

Not my field, but certainly my kids went on a bit of a “2nd jab road trip” in the summer as they found it easy to get jabbed in Bolton but couldn’t at home.
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andy from embsay wrote:
I don’t think he is, technically, is he? Certainly not at an operational level. I read that many GPs have “withdrawn” from doing vaccinations and a lot of large jab centres have scaled back.

Obviously he holds the purse strings but I think nhs trusts and GP practices have a fair degree of autonomy- hence you saw different approaches back in the spring.
Yes, GP surgeries operate with a degree of independence, which is why I said he could establish another 600 mass vaccination centres if he wanted. AIUI, policy for these is managed centrally, ultimately falling to the Secretary of State for Health to determine that programme. If he wanted more of them to boost the booster programme I think he can make it happen. If I heard correctly, Susan Hopkins CEO of the UK Health Security Agency (or whatever Public Health England is called these days) said earlier this week that the speed of the booster vaccine roll-out was almost entirely determined by the requirement to wait six months after the second booster jab. Vaccine supplies are in place, the infrastructure is in place to deliver the shots, but the timetable is constrained by the date of when the second jab was administered.
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@rob@rar, that was Jenny Harries, I think. But someone’s fibbing to them - both me and my brother are over the 6 months and haven’t been contacted.

I agree with you btw - nationally they could do the old “bring the army in” etc and mobilse large scale booster (and teenager) jabbing operations.
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@andy from embsay, have you tried going to the nhs vaccine booking website and entering your details?

I’m not a 6 months yet (about a month short) and it took my details but computer said no.

For first jab I booked it before I was notified so worth a try.
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DJL wrote:
@andy from embsay, have you tried going to the nhs vaccine booking website and entering your details?

I’m not a 6 months yet (about a month short) and it took my details but computer said no.

For first jab I booked it before I was notified so worth a try.


Yep, both me and my brother have. Mine could be blocked out because of my +ve PCR to be fair.

Could be updated overnight - I’ll be there when I can!!
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andy from embsay wrote:
DJL wrote:
@andy from embsay, have you tried going to the nhs vaccine booking website and entering your details?

I’m not a 6 months yet (about a month short) and it took my details but computer said no.

For first jab I booked it before I was notified so worth a try.


Yep, both me and my brother have. Mine could be blocked out because of my +ve PCR to be fair.

Could be updated overnight - I’ll be there when I can!!
Exactly six months after my second jab my GP sent me an invite by text message for a booster at the local centre they run alongside the other four GP surgeries in their primary care trust. Two days later I got a text message from the NHS inviting me for a booster, with a link to the central booking service for the mass vaccination centres. I don't have a +ve PCR test result, if that's what's causing a delay in your invite.
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@rob@rar, i didnt have a pos PCR when I went past 6 months, and my brother is well past and has no PCR result.

I just think it varies by GP (as it did in the spring).

It doesn’t help that their records are all to pot - I discovered they thought I was still having chemotherapy more than two years after I finished.

Which was nice.
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@GreenDay, Pure Bozo politics and showmanship. As with India. Just before a major event he wants to be seen in complete control as Rome burns around him.
Our NHS is a great deal smaller than other countries and more Covid = less resources and care for other things.
Comment from a GP skiing friend "My country/nhs has taken too much and broken me. But I'll bounce back." Just remember NHS and Care staff have lost more to Covid than UK military lost in 20 years of Afghanistan and Iraq.

@andy from embsay, Possibly. But that doesn't mean I'll be happy getting it. And if that means spending my money in Europe, where it is safer and hospitals emptier if needed, then I'll happily do that.

At the end of the day, mask wearing indoors doesn't really affect any personal liberty. Even social distancing in most places eg supermarkets is not an issue.
And if social distancing is an issue, then vaccine passport as in Europe.
Why is UK just about the only nation that stands out for its lack of simple precautions??
15min/1.5m/24 hours still applies!!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
andy from embsay wrote:
@rob@rar, i didnt have a pos PCR when I went past 6 months, and my brother is well past and has no PCR result.

I just think it varies by GP (as it did in the spring).

It doesn’t help that their records are all to pot - I discovered they thought I was still having chemotherapy more than two years after I finished.

Which was nice.
Yes, I agree that it will vary, perhaps significantly, by GP. I think my surgery has been extremely good through the pandemic, and I was surprised by how early I was called for my first jab and then the second nine weeks later. But I assume the text invite from the NHS I got a couple of days after the invite from my GP was unrelated to how good my local surgery is? Aren't those invites to a mass vaccination centre all generated centrally? I'm not saying that there won't be problems and no doubt some individuals are going to fall through the cracks, but from what I can see of my experience and that of family members the national part of the vaccine programme has operated pretty much as expected.
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I might be being dumb here, but isnt giving everyone boosters at six months going to require vaccinations at exactly the same rate as the second jabs were administered - just six months down the line.

So if we were doing 500k second doses a day in April/May then they need to be doing 500k boosters in Oct/November.

Back in April we had mass vaccination hubs, and they were busy - but these all seem to be closed now. So where is the capacity for 500K doses a day going to come from?
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telford_mike wrote:
andy from embsay wrote:
I actually think Javid’s played quite a clever game today. He got to say “get your booster or else”


This would hold true, if only we didn’t have to wait 6 months before getting our boosters. I'd love one, but I can't get one in the U.K. No doubt I’ll get one here in CH, but that just exposes Javid's position. He offers, and entreats us to have third jab, but he can’t deliver. Go figure.


Quite - a threat to blame Joe Public when his own rules prohibit greater uptake. They really are twisting snakes. rolling eyes
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kerb wrote:
I might be being dumb here, but isnt giving everyone boosters at six months going to require vaccinations at exactly the same rate as the second jabs were administered - just six months down the line.

So if we were doing 500k second doses a day in April/May then they need to be doing 500k boosters in Oct/November.

Back in April we had mass vaccination hubs, and they were busy - but these all seem to be closed now. So where is the capacity for 500K doses a day going to come from?


Exactly. Which is why there’s lots of analysis that shows there are c5m 6 months past jab 2 who’ve not been boosted yet. And that number’s growing as 6 months ago we were at pretty much full speed with mass centres etc, which just aren’t there now.
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Dave of the Marmottes wrote:
telford_mike wrote:
andy from embsay wrote:
I actually think Javid’s played quite a clever game today. He got to say “get your booster or else”


This would hold true, if only we didn’t have to wait 6 months before getting our boosters. I'd love one, but I can't get one in the U.K. No doubt I’ll get one here in CH, but that just exposes Javid's position. He offers, and entreats us to have third jab, but he can’t deliver. Go figure.


Quite - a threat to blame Joe Public when his own rules prohibit greater uptake. They really are twisting snakes. rolling eyes


Sorry but the six month thing isn’t an issue. The boffins all agree that around 6 months (ok, it might be 5 months) is the optimum time for a booster. The problem they’re trying to solve is getting all those who had their jab 2 six months ago to come forward - though whether the issue is supply or demand is moot!

They want people to come forward when it’s their time, not before.
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No doubt JVCI have said 6 months is optimum. This has been incorporated into the booking system. There are mass vax centres operating, when my parents ticked over tbe date tbete were slots available the next day. Looks like demand needs to be stimulated rather than supply.

There was a gap of about 3 months between first and 2nd jabs, there is a 6 month gap between 2nd and third. So many folks were onto the second as folks were getting their first. So the capacity doesn't need to be as great, unless they stop vaxxing in schools.
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@andy from embsay, >The problem they’re trying to solve is getting all those who had their jab 2 six months ago to come forward - though whether the issue is supply or demand is moot!

Exactly. And "Freedom Day" in July gave the firm message "Nothing to see here any more, move along, get the economy back".
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colinstone wrote:
@andy from embsay, >The problem they’re trying to solve is getting all those who had their jab 2 six months ago to come forward - though whether the issue is supply or demand is moot!

Exactly. And "Freedom Day" in July gave the firm message "Nothing to see here any more, move along, get the economy back".


To be fair nobody had any idea what vaccine waning would mean, so the whole world is learning as they go.

Given there are still only 6k people in hospital with covid in England I think we’re in a significantly better place than we were told we’d be (wasn’t it 7k admissions every day!).
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andy from embsay wrote:
@colinstone, Most epidemiologists seem agreed that catching covid isn’t avoidable in the long term. We’ll all get it, probably several times.

Have you got a link for that?

Not saying you are wrong, just don't recall reading/hearing it anywhere.
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@Layne, Francois Balloux from UCL is one. Interesting thread here where he calculates everyone will get Covid every 9 years or so!

https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1450758279093751814?s=21

To be honest, unless you believe zero covid is a thing (and even the Kiwis have given up on that now) you have to believe that at some point you’re going to come across a viable dose of virus. The likelihood is you won’t be very ill (or even notice), but viruses gonna virus, as they say.
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My 84 year old father in law arrived 10 minutes before his appointment time for his boaster at a mass jab centre to be to join queue A, 2 hours later he got his booster. That’s a whole load of 80+ year olds waiting in line for 2 hours plus.
Utter farce, the demand is definitely there as usual wrong people organising logistics.
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Hey Folks

Special attention to you folks who reside outside the EU/EEC Common Travel Area. (3rd Country Status) ..

IMO.. The Drawbridge will come up & the EU will reimpose Travel Restrictions probably as early as November...

Travel within the internal EU border will be not be affected

If you want to be 100% sure of getting to the slopes this Winter I would set off soon and get inside the EU Borders ..

We have National lockdowns returning already within EU (Baltics) ...

For our British (Europeans) Friends

What's going on in the UK is not going unnoticed .....and I expect a Brussels Travel Ban decree pretty soon .....

Safety/Health First ..... Wintersports """Holidays""" think about it ..Really ..Think about it Shocked Shocked !!!
_______________________________________________________________________________________________


Thought I heard "a small passenger plane is crashing in the UK every day killing everyone on board, but we the government are telling you it's still safe to fly"... or was that just me?
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