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Is the 2021/2022 in doubt ?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
What we're waiting for is a variant that's even more transmissable but is generally benign. That will kill covid.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@James the Last, that is statistically more likely too. How long it will take to get there though, is anyone’s guess
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The quote from Yvette Cooper illustrates that while politicians accept it's impossible to ban all flights, many of them still want to ban or severely restrict holidays abroad, semi-permanently. (That's what they mean by 'border measures'.)
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snowhound wrote:
@JackSkier, exactly. Closing borders in case of another strain appearing is following a precautionary policy which makes it almost impossible to re open them.
You basically have to prove the negative that another strain will not appear.


yes a bit like lockdowns, 'easy' to go into but not so easy to come out of!

I think only the most stubborn of lockdown sceptics would say we were right not to go hard & fast last spring but that said I have yet to read anything that suggests 'zero covid' is plausible for europe. the press need to find something else to report on so the public isn't constantly fed fear-porn and begins to accept risk as part of life again. There are people who think we should double-mask outside ffs!!
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Let's get all the same threads out in the open and hopefully that will stop us creating new ones! snowHead
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Everyone savaged me for my Correct prediction of the current likelihood of Tourism this Ski Season 2020/2021..

Turns out I was Correct with thanks to some very informed sources in Vienna..

https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=152450

___________________________________________________________________________________

For the coming season (This thread ) 2021/2022 ..

I would not start making any plans unless you can afford to lose money or guaranteed 100% cash back..

This goes out for Non Schengen Tourists (exceptions safe OZ, NZ & few others)

We are already seeing that this years European Summer Holidays will be Off Limits to countries like the UK.
If not directly the cost of testing, quarantines & movement restrictions , etc will make it financially prohibitive for the vast majority.

A new Autumn 4th wave of mutated variants likely

Next season is not a given by any means for Tourists mixing from multiple nations.

When the Tourism does resume there fewer airlines with increased Prices everywhere , raised Tourist Taxes..

IMO Tourism will not be back to anywhere near normal until Season 2023/2024 if we are lucky.

Folks employed in the Ski Hospitality Industry should look for a change of career ....
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@stanton, I've had a quick read and can't see you being savaged in that thread.

How's the tourist taxi business going for you? Very Happy
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
2023/24 before a normal season is an extremely pessimistic view IMO. If we’re in that territory then when we emerge there will be no airlines, no tour operators, no hotels and lift companies.

I’m confused by the “ European Summer Holidays will be Off Limits to countries like the UK” comment too. Lots of European countries have already started saying they’ll accept UK tourists.

I’m not saying Covid will be gone by then. It won’t. But views around acceptable contagion and mortality rates will change. Treatment will also improve.
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peerless ploughman wrote:
The quote from Yvette Cooper illustrates that while politicians accept it's impossible to ban all flights, many of them still want to ban or severely restrict holidays abroad, semi-permanently. (That's what they mean by 'border measures'.)
The full text from her was "The government should be honest with us about how long these measures may need to last if new variants are spreading around the world. All of us are desperate for some holidays and some sunshine but the government should not be making false promises again.”

Trouble is that with the tabloids getting into a Tiggerish and toddler-like frenzy about how we'll all on the way to normality, no sane politician is going to incur their wrath by telling it how it really is. All the upbeat Ministerial stuff I've read is carefully crafted to apply in retrospect to staycations i.e. the "Well, when I said that, I was referring to holidays in the UK. Which is a great place ....." etc. Any sensible MP is going to let the I-think-the-British-People-have-had-enough-of' experts take the flak. As today, with 'Covid: Summer holidays abroad 'unlikely', warns government advisor' (Dr. Tildsley of the SPIG Modelling Group on Radio 4).

My guess is that when the Task Force reports on Vaccine Passports (sorry, 'Travel Certificates') on April 12th. we may see a follow-up about gradually allowing Corridors with selected countries, such as Greece and Portugal- using various schemes in development from IATA, governments, B.A., the EU etc. And a tabloid campaign blaming the French et al for us not being able to go abroad anywhere else. Which is politically much safer than telling us how things really stand now.


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Sat 20-03-21 16:03; edited 2 times in total
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Timmycb5 wrote:
2023/24 before a normal season is an extremely pessimistic view IMO. If we’re in that territory then when we emerge there will be no airlines, no tour operators, no hotels and lift companies.

I’m confused by the “ European Summer Holidays will be Off Limits to countries like the UK” comment too. Lots of European countries have already started saying they’ll accept UK tourists.

I’m not saying Covid will be gone by then. It won’t. But views around acceptable contagion and mortality rates will change. Treatment will also improve.


The ability to travel this summer will also depend on our government permitting us to do so, though, no matter what other countries say about whether they would accept us. I still think there’s a fair bit to play out on that front yet.
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@LaForet, that would be crap for me, as we’ve visited France at least twice a year for over a decade (including twice in 2020!). 2021 will be the first time we haven’t been since 2009 if we can’t get there this summer.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Scientist on government advisory board says summer holidays abroad unlikely https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56467813

I'm struggling to see an end to this now. Until there is covid zero (if this is even possible), there is always going to be the risk of a tourist bringing back a vaccine resistant strain. If that potential risk is enough to keep the government not allowing people to go on holiday we could be waiting a long time!
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Looking at the chaotic situation across Europe this week then put simply season 21/22 has to have questionable status. I really hope I am WRONG!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@boarder2020, covid zero isn't doable now. It’s here to stay. It will have to be managed with booster jabs and presumably society will just accept a level of mortality like with pneumonia and flu. The hope, of course, being that it mutates to a far less virulent form or less severe infection.

@Rogerdodger, I suspect we will see cases plummet across Europe in the summer. If that happens and they can roll out the vaccine, we could be ok
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Vaccines show how quickly numbers can be squished.
European countries are only a few weeks behind the UK, the figures do not show a problem of putting the vaccine in the arms, the political side leaves a lot to be desired though. Ultimately they have to answer to their citizens. Lots of elections this year when covid will still be fresh in the memory.
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Poster: A snowHead
@boarder2020, would be questionable why we should be wait ad infinitum because of a risk of COvid variants when we don’t do the same for god knows how many other viruses which mutate all the time as well.
We’re not talking about vaccines not working for different variants, just they are a few % lower in effectiveness. They still give full prot3ction against serious illness. You might get a bit more sniffy with the SA version. A year ago we’d have jumped at a 60% vaccine, they are currently working at 75-90%. Despite most of the media, it is not a binary vaccines work/useless decision.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@snowhound I don't disagree! I would be happy with us taking calculated risks in exchange for a return to travel and normal life. I suspect not everyone will though.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Given all that has happened in the past 12 months, I have total sympathy with politicians being careful to make no promises over international travel - which will inevitably involve at least one other country over which a UK politician has even less inflluence. Which will be why the BBC had to work down the membership lists of advisory committees to find anyone who would give any opinion whatsoever.

My feeling, admittedly on a glass-half-full basis, is that travel will probably become possible as it was last summer - but since we have no idea of dates it is inadvisable to book anything. (Wheras I suspect they will try hard to keep to the dates given in relation to UK self-catering and catered accommodation).
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Should be a bumper year for the domestic holiday market and the uk trade deficit in holiday spending snowHead
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Peter S wrote:
Should be a bumper year for the domestic holiday market and the uk trade deficit in holiday spending snowHead


I wonder if the economic case will have a bearing on relaxation of overseas travel. Following the (economic) data.
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Peter S wrote:
Should be a bumper year for the domestic holiday market and the uk trade deficit in holiday spending snowHead


Sister and family in Bath - we were looking to get something big in the Lakes, take my mum down and we all meet up.

Almost nothing left, and what there is left is crud.

Day trips and long lunches beckon..........

I cant see anyone going abroad in the summer (if the continental europe wave continues in the same way ours did), esp after Hancocks comments yesterday.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
The low point between peaks 2 (10 Nov) and 3 (1 Jan) was 1 Dec. 4 months on from that U.K. will have vaccinated enough to prevent 99.9% of mortality. Vaccination commenced mid Dec.

Couldn’t the same happen in 3 months in European countries?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I had a week in the Lakes mid-June two years ago, when schools were still working and all flights to sunny climes were going. I thought it was a bit crowded then. Can you imagine what it would be like when half the UK decides to go there??
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Back on topic; UK has reached a high level of vaccination by the end of March. EU is slower but should manage by end of summer. So let’s hope by December travel will be back to normal. Question perhaps is how cheap will flights be and how many hotels etc haven’t gone bankrupt (raising prices for those still open).
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GreenDay wrote:
Peter S wrote:
Should be a bumper year for the domestic holiday market and the uk trade deficit in holiday spending snowHead


Sister and family in Bath - we were looking to get something big in the Lakes, take my mum down and we all meet up.

Almost nothing left, and what there is left is crud.

Day trips and long lunches beckon..........

I cant see anyone going abroad in the summer (if the continental europe wave continues in the same way ours did), esp after Hancocks comments yesterday.


Listening to the Public Health expert on Andrew Marr this morning, I think that 2021 summer holidays in Europe will be off the menu. I am looking at making a trip to New Zealand and America sometime. I have no idea when, and even if that will be feasible before personal circumstance rule it out anyway.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@achilles, I hope you get to make your trip.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Orange200 wrote:
I had a week in the Lakes mid-June two years ago, when schools were still working and all flights to sunny climes were going. I thought it was a bit crowded then. Can you imagine what it would be like when half the UK decides to go there??


My family live in the lakes and in normal circumstances we don't go in the school holidays unless absolutely necessary.

Family tell me that the last 12 months have been a nightmare. Even during lockdown it's been packed, my elderly parents went for a walk in Bowness a couple of weeks ago and said it was incredibly busy even though nothing was open and people shouldn't be travelling distances. Last summer was a nightmare, everywhere was full so people slept in cars or camped where they felt like and evidently left litter everywhere. It sounds like in some cases people turned up on spec, couldn't get accommodation so went to Argos/Aldi/Tesco etc bought a cheap tent, camped near a car park and then just walked away leaving everything behind.

I love the lakes but wouldn't recommend the main areas this year, there are other places nearby that are still really nice (e.g. Eden valley, SW Scotland) or go for either Western or Northern lakes. Keep clear of Keswick / Ambleside / Windermere / Grasmere etc unless you are happy to walk from the door most days. If you do go then the key thing is to get up and out early, after 9:00/9:30 the main arteries get jam packed and gridlocked as people in the 1,000s of B&Bs all leave after their breakfast.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@richb67, Agreed, we avoid the Lakes and stick to less busy areas, ie home (in theory)..... there's regularly a one mile tailback on the M6 for the northern off-ramp for the Kendal turning, folks from Lancs going for a quiet local walk in the Lakes. There's a big issue there atm with illegal camping and motorhomes, apparently they are bracing themselves and the national park authorities are going to be stricter this summer. MH people emptying effluent in ditches etc last summer, and illegal camping.

Noticeable this last weekend that thankfully it was much quieter in the area I live (Yorkshire Dales) the verges are now mostly messed up, rubbish widespread, around us - and it now looks like folks have gone further afield, ie the coast and northern Dales now that the pandemic restrictions are starting to be relaxed. Once the shops and pubs are open they'll spread out further, and back to normal hopefully, it's been 5x busier where I live over the pandemic, folks not staying local at home and driving for their exercise.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Northumberland and the North Yorkshire Moors are a good shout if you want remote, beautiful and quiet.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Frosty the Snowman, shhhh.... wink

Looking forward to mtbing in Swaledale again I must admit.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Frosty the Snowman wrote:
Northumberland and the North Yorkshire Moors are a good shout if you want remote, beautiful and quiet.


we have a wedding in early July so have to travel north, we'll have to spend a few days seeing the folks in the lakes as we won't have seen them for 6 months but we're thinking of Northumberland for a few days afterwards.

Back OT, I'm still confident for next season. The Janssen vaccine will hit the EU before long (once they've supplied US), supply chains for the others will improve so the EU vaccination programme will get rolling and a lot of the noise will start to die down. I expect masks etc to be still required and some kind of social distancing in bars and restaurants but I'm too old for dancing on tales so that doesn't bother me.

We have planned a trip but thought it best to manage risk so it's a bit more convoluted that 'normal'. First week is an extended family affair booked via Crystal so covered by ABTA. We have flights back in the package but don't plan to use them as we have a self catering booked for two weeks (will likely use Crystal to transfer to airport and pick-up hire car there for next 2 weeks), no up front payment required until November, one way flights back with BA so can cancel for voucher/refund. Will book hire car closer the time. So 3 weeks booked with under £200pp committed.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

Last summer was a nightmare, everywhere was full so people slept in cars or camped where they felt like and evidently left litter everywhere.


We forget how busy the coast and countryside were 50 years ago before affordable overseas travel. I remember one holiday it taking 14 hours to get from north Manchester to the Lleyn peninsular in July.

This year govt. is extending the 28day rule to 56 days as part of the covid economic recovery. That will mean deemed consent for lots of popup campsites (and probably informal car parks) throughout the coast and countryside this Spring and summer. No doubt there will be some issues but we’ve been here before and it’s time again for a new generation to relearn the countryside code and to take their litter home with them.

It’s taken a global pandemic to get young people out into the deeper countryside (without the attraction of a festival) but hopefully for some it might just spark a lasting interest in the outdoor life.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
richb67 wrote:
Orange200 wrote:
I had a week in the Lakes mid-June two years ago, when schools were still working and all flights to sunny climes were going. I thought it was a bit crowded then. Can you imagine what it would be like when half the UK decides to go there??


My family live in the lakes and in normal circumstances we don't go in the school holidays unless absolutely necessary.

Family tell me that the last 12 months have been a nightmare. Even during lockdown it's been packed, my elderly parents went for a walk in Bowness a couple of weeks ago and said it was incredibly busy even though nothing was open and people shouldn't be travelling distances. Last summer was a nightmare, everywhere was full so people slept in cars or camped where they felt like and evidently left litter everywhere. It sounds like in some cases people turned up on spec, couldn't get accommodation so went to Argos/Aldi/Tesco etc bought a cheap tent, camped near a car park and then just walked away leaving everything behind.

I love the lakes but wouldn't recommend the main areas this year, there are other places nearby that are still really nice (e.g. Eden valley, SW Scotland) or go for either Western or Northern lakes. Keep clear of Keswick / Ambleside / Windermere / Grasmere etc unless you are happy to walk from the door most days. If you do go then the key thing is to get up and out early, after 9:00/9:30 the main arteries get jam packed and gridlocked as people in the 1,000s of B&Bs all leave after their breakfast.


Hmmm, this is making me nervous - a couple of friends and I have booked a campsite for a long weekend in late July beside Coniston... I hadn't thought about bad behaviour, or people wild camping and abandoning rubbish etc, as we'd never consider doing that. We were hoping for a chilled few days in a quiet campsite - sounds like that's a longshot! Shocked
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There will be no quiet campsites this summer.
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fixx wrote:


Hmmm, this is making me nervous - a couple of friends and I have booked a campsite for a long weekend in late July beside Coniston... I hadn't thought about bad behaviour, or people wild camping and abandoning rubbish etc, as we'd never consider doing that. We were hoping for a chilled few days in a quiet campsite - sounds like that's a longshot! Shocked


well who knows but this was one campsite last year https://www.lancs.live/news/local-news/lake-district-campsite-voluntarily-closes-18782646

On the plus side Coniston is getting towards the quieter side of the lakes, on the down side it's in the school holidays... if it's booked then I'd wait and see closer the time as I can't see there being last minute availability. I obviously don't know how well you know the lakes but if you drive to Coniston from the M6 follow the A590 to Greenodd (or Newby Bridge depending on where the campsite is). Don't try to go through Windermere to Coniston in the school holidays and avoid Hawkshead unless it's essential.

Coniston is a lovely spot in a quieter part of the lakes, I spent a lot of time there when i was younger. It'll still be busy in summer holidays but not as manic as the honey-pots.
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Also booked a few nights near Coniston on Caravan & Motorhome Club site (they're usually pretty quiet @pam w, - it's the demographic of customers). Went to Cornwall last year - was busy but survived

Still hope to be able to go to France late August - sure they're in a bad place now but 5-months time could be completely different. Look at where we were late Jan
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
We holidayed staying just south of Coniston Water in early August 2020.

It was certainly busy but we got by and it was an enjoyable week.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Frosty the Snowman,
Quote:

Northumberland and the North Yorkshire Moors are a good shout if you want remote, beautiful and quiet.

I hope so - we are running a campsite in Northumberland, near Hadrian's Wall for this coming summer. I hope it will be a bit more peaceful than Cornwall was last summer, where we were completely full every night from opening through to mid-September. I do hope foreign travel opens up for the autumn though, so we can go to Spain again in October/November.
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Could everyone please stop mentioning Northumberland!
We don't want to become jam packed like the lakes, it was great when we were the forgotton county.
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Charliegolf wrote:
The future for travel and tourism IS NOT uncertain at all. The timeline is.


Holiday businesses are uncertain as to when, in the future, they will be able/allowed to operate as normal. They are unable to plan with any certainty; and may not have a viable future, or any future at all.

Surely, you can't get more uncertain than that Sad .
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