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Is the 2021/2022 in doubt ?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

.I am all for protecting about things we know and can take appropriate steps to prevent against, but shutting down everything and closing the country off for a threat that may or may not exist and that may or may not reduce the efficacy of existing vaccines is taking paranoia to new levels.


Again your arguing a point no one is making. Mandatory hotel quarantine is the opposite of closing borders. It's actually a smart way to keep borders open while lowering risk.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
brianatab wrote:
Not only would Scotland have no vaccine if we were all still in the EU, most of the vaccine now being distributed in the UK would not even have been produced.

Not being in the EU allowed the UK to unilaterally decide to pump money into the research that led to the Oxford/AZ vaccine success.
If we had waited for the EU, we would probably all be dependent on either the USA, Russia or China for supplies, however long that took , and the Poitical consequences.


What absolute cow manure. You really have zero idea what your talking about on pretty much anything you’ve talked about in this thread.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
All of the below are true, and not mutually exclusive:

Sturgeon has handled (by some margin) the pandemic better than any other UK leader.

Boris Johnson has been the worst

The UK government have played a blinder with the vaccine

The EU have had a stinker re: the vaccine

Trying to claim that England “saved” Scotland re: the vaccine is utter balls. Indyref1 and the Brexit referendum are completely divorced from the pandemic and trying to link one with the other is disingenuous in the extreme.
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@Timmycb5, Not Scottish are you? Laughing
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
MorningGory wrote:
@Timmycb5, Not Scottish are you? Laughing
You wouldn’t think I was if you spoke to me. But I was born there, lived there until I was 4, then moved to Wales where I was brought up. Moved to Oxford when I was 19 and have lived here for 25 years now. I like to think I have a much more rounded “British” view as a result.
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The UK was in the EEA single market when these deals were signed operating under the same rules and regulations as the EU27 - so even had the UK still been a full member state it could still have invested in the AZ Oxford vaccine development.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
haggishunter wrote:
The UK was in the EEA single market when these deals were signed operating under the same rules and regulations as the EU27 - so even had the UK still been a full member state it could still have invested in the AZ Oxford vaccine development.


Correct. And given the UKs past record for being different from the block, I dare say they may would have.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Perhaps, out of solidarity with the European Commission, Sturgeon should halt the Scottish vaccination roll-out until the EU catches up?
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mitcva wrote:
Perhaps, out of solidarity with the European Commission, Sturgeon should halt the Scottish vaccination roll-out until the EU catches up?
You want to see people die? Wow.
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richb67 wrote:
re the original question of is 2021/22 in doubt. Actually I'm very optimistic that most northern hemisphere resorts will be open next year but expect there to be some restrictions and social distancing in place. Covid will still be around but I think the balance of risk will have shifted so economies will re-open.

why ?
vaccine availability - there are currently three vaccines available with another only a matter of weeks away from approval (and no doubt others to come which will be even more effective). We'll be over the initial hump of must-have vaccinations, production issues will have been largely smoothed out so if you're in EU/UK/US/Canada etc the vaccine programme should be running quite smoothly.

Impact on number of people requiring hospitalisation. If almost everyone is vaccinated and the data is correct then we will see a massive decrease in the number of infections, the number of people requiring hospitalisation and the death rate. It sounds horrible but even if there are e.g. a STEADY 5,000 people in hospital in the UK and the death rate is at 100 people a day that level will likely be considered an acceptable loss to keep open the economies.

Economic drivers - governments will be wanting to get their economies back up and running, debt will only stay cheap for so long....

I'd like to be as optimistic, but think there are still too many unknowns. In particular, we don't yet know how long vaccine protection will last, and vaccinating everyone again next year would be a major logistical challenge. Add to that the possibility of variants emerging for which current vaccines are less effective.

Even a steady 5000 in hospital with Covid would have a significant impact on the NHS each winter - it might still require some form of lockdown, perhaps say for those 60+, to keep the level of flu infections, falls etc to a minimum.

Agree that governments will want economies to recover, but most can get at least 90% of the way there without international tourism - and for the EU as a whole probably 95% even closing its external borders to tourists
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mitcva wrote:
Perhaps, out of solidarity with the European Commission, Sturgeon should halt the Scottish vaccination roll-out until the EU catches up?

What an extremely mature addition to the debate rolling eyes rolling eyes
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
If scotland had become fully independent after the 2014 referendum, it would later have had 3 options when the pandemic arrived.
1. Ask (and pay) to join the rest of the old UK's vaccine procurement and approval process. End result vaccine-wise: as now.
2. Wait for the EU's shared procurement and approval process. End result, Scotland in the same vaccine situation as the smaller EU nations are now, like Slovakia or Portugal for example.
3. Go it alone and negotiate directly with pharmaceutical suppliers, in competition with the EU, r-UK and other large customers.

I gather that options (1) and (3) would still have been legally possible, even if Scotland had by then become a member nation of the EU. However in practice none of the 27 EU nations seem to have seriously considered either of those options, presumably because it would have been regarded as impermissibly nationalistic and/or grossly disrespectful to the EU.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
mitcva wrote:
Perhaps, out of solidarity with the European Commission, Sturgeon should halt the Scottish vaccination roll-out until the EU catches up?

Fan-dabi-dozi
But im sure weeee cranky sturgeon will run with the wolves on securing vaccines for her snp voters so they are immuniinised for her the scottish elections


http://youtube.com/v/RyCSGWVpOuE
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
peerless ploughman wrote:
If scotland had become fully independent after the 2014 referendum, it would later have had 3 options when the pandemic arrived.
1. Ask (and pay) to join the rest of the old UK's vaccine procurement and approval process. End result vaccine-wise: as now.
2. Wait for the EU's shared procurement and approval process. End result, Scotland in the same vaccine situation as the smaller EU nations are now, like Slovakia or Portugal for example.
3. Go it alone and negotiate directly with pharmaceutical suppliers, in competition with the EU, r-UK and other large customers.

I gather that options (1) and (3) would still have been legally possible, even if Scotland had by then become a member nation of the EU. However in practice none of the 27 EU nations seem to have seriously considered either of those options, presumably because it would have been regarded as impermissibly nationalistic and/or grossly disrespectful to the EU.


No, your in the uk or not.
EU blocked the german franco dutch etc effort to act as EU Federal states.

So the correct answer is 2 if scotland managed to join the eu within 5 years of voting to be independent.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Mr.Egg, Correct.

Also worth emphasising that iScot do not meet the EUs criteria for membership (e.g. independent currency and tax raising powers) and even if they did Spain would veto their application to avoid having to consider Basque and Catalonian independence claims.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
NickYoung wrote:
@Mr.Egg, Correct.

Also worth emphasising that iScot do not meet the EUs criteria for membership (e.g. independent currency and tax raising powers) and even if they did Spain would veto their application to avoid having to consider Basque and Catalonian independence claims.

Spain have already said that they would not block Scotland’s application to the EU. The game has changed now. They didn’t want Scotland to be allowed straight from the UK as an EU member to indy EU membership. Now that the UK is a 3rd country that precedent doesn’t exist.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Have I stumbled into an apres thread? Seriously scope creep!


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sun 31-01-21 9:29; edited 1 time in total
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Handy Turnip, 'fraid so. Pity.
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Well this is another thread that’s slipped into a Brexit/Scotland Independence discussion. Let it go guys, let it go. rolling eyes rolling eyes
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@Ricklovesthepowder, yes I was looking at this thread to see if any decent insurance options for 21/22 rolling eyes Am now regretting logging on!
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OK trying to stay on topic but noting the likelihood of quarantine & other ongoing obstacles in the way of brits wanting to get to the Alps next winter.
Can anyone, especially Scots, please advise on whether they expect Scotland and its ski resorts to be open to visitors from outside Scotland?

Background: recent experience has shown that existing powers relating to health can be used to ban non-essential travel into Scotland from England. What I don't know, but scottish snowheads might know, is how keen the scots population would be on the use of those powers next winter. Likely situation during winter 2021/22: much less covid than at present, but not zero; perceived risk of imported covid variants; usual winter flu etc and pressures on the NHS; politics north and south of the border much the same as now.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Well it’s really only going to be speculation, we’ve seen how quick things can change. Locally in Highland catapulted from Level 1 straight to Level 4 lockdown on Boxing Day and then 10 days later into a enhanced stay at home lockdown, a variant SARS-CoV-2 that escapes the current vaccines could drastically alter things almost overnight!

As far as this winter season goes Glenshee, Glencoe and the Lecht have only been open under Level 4 restrictions so far this season, that is likely how they will reopen if they do this season - that means much of Scotland’s population can’t travel to the ski areas (similar travel rules under Level 3 - but less restrictive in terms of operations, cafes can be open for sit in etc).

For access from England firstly the ski areas themselves need to drop below Level 3 (travel is unrestricted between Level 0,1 & 2 local authorities). I’d suspect that initially any allowance of travel to/from rest of GB for non essential purposes will be from tier 1 and 2 areas of England and any L1/2 areas in Wales. But when that comes about may depend on the geographic spread of virus prevalence, if it is low in Southern England, but still higher further North that’s probably not conducive to lifting travel restrictions !

Then of course there’s the weather factor. Last season was a back loaded winter, February and early March was ferociously stormy though the snow that was lacking in January accumulated rapidly. By mid March finally the weather eased up, we finally had the snow and the weather, and bang lockdown! We then preceded to record the sunniest spring in Highland Scotland on record! rolling eyes

Looking at current conditions and the fact we’ve just had an extraordinarily benign January in terms of wind one can’t help but worry we’re going to have a mirror image of last year! Skullie
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
brianatab wrote:
@jebroni3_16, To be fair, I was quoting figures from memory, and chats with relatives over there, using a bit of licence to make the point that it is much easier to close a couple of Airports, and multiple ports to cruise ships in NZ than shut down a country with many more ports, airports,and a land border.
The vast majority of air visitors arrive via Auckland.
I accept I may have incorrectly quoted % by cruise ship

Did manage to pick up these stats:
Glasgow handled 8.84m passengers 2019 (25,000/day ave) - wikipedia
(Edinburgh 14.7 m)

NZ approx 3.9m visitors, (1.4m Australian). (very seasonal)
NZ nationals 3m https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/international-travel-january-2019 (look for single line relating to annual.)

Strangely, they provide a monthly breakdown, but not annual, but January is the busiest month.

Hi Brian

Thanks for that and apologies in the delay responding. Been a lazy few days!

Part of the reason I asked about your numbers was because I was intrigued as to whether they'd be counting those tourists as arriving every time they docked, or only on first arrival. And whilst I saw a couple of huge cruise ships in Auckland when we were there in November 2019, I didn't think that would still necessarily match up to the numbers flying in.

I'll go have a proper perusal of the figures though Smile
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@hang11 Try telling that to the 40,000 Aussies who have been trying to get back for the past year (17,000 of which are now destitute)
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Re potential scotland skiing next winter, thank you haggishunter for the info. I'll keep an eye open for developments on tier rules etc, although I fear that people who want travel restrictions won't make much distinction on that basis. Even after most people have been vaccinated, hardliners can always say that an incoming visitor might be bringing a (known or unknown) new variant.
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They could say that aliens might invade. In the long run, this is a not very dangerous disease in the first place, the worst effects of which seem to be pretty much mitigated by vaccination.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Very good interview on Times Radio from a virologist this morning.
1. Vaccines are not binary work/don't work. New variants may lower effectiveness by a few % or you might get more people with minor symptoms.
2. So far, all the vaccines prevent hospitalisation for all the known variants. So they still give 100% protection against being properly ill, which is the key point when looking at the pressure of health services.
3. Expecting an annual booster-with high levels of previous immunisation, allied with Points 1 and 2, means a new variant is not going to rip through the population in the meantime.
4. Any variant which had changed its spike protein sufficiently enough to evade a vaccine completely, almost certainly won't be able to use its new spike to infect people-the shape of the spike 'key' has changed so much, it doesn't fit the cell's surface lock any more and can't enter the cell.

So all in all, positive and encouraging for next season, I would say. Particularly with recent studies showing how vaccination significantly reduce transmission.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@snowhound, very interesting and encouraging - thanks for posting
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I read a Guardian article which quoted former Labour minister, Chris Bryant, who said;

“Everyone is talking about whether they will be going on holiday to Spain or lying on a beach in Croatia once they have been vaccinated – the reality is that may not happen until they have been vaccinated [...],”

What are people's thoughts on this? It sounds like there is at least some suggestion that international travel might at some point become restricted to only those who have received a vaccine. As someone who is way down the priority list (fair enough I might add), this does concern me, although I understand it as a strategy.

Does anyone else know if this has legs?

Link to source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/03/be-honest-about-summer-holidays-abroad-mps-warn-no-10
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Ryunis,

"...once they have been vaccinated"
"...may not happen until they have been vaccinated"

He's saying the same thing twice. I suspect he meant something else.
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Poster: A snowHead
holidayloverxx wrote:
@Ryunis,

"...once they have been vaccinated"
"...may not happen until they have been vaccinated"

He's saying the same thing twice. I suspect he meant something else.


You know what, I missed out the words " as well" from the end, because I thought it was insignificant, but actually he's referring to the people in the host country so his suggestion is even stricter than I thought. Hi suggestion is that everyone would need to be vaccinated-both travellers and locals in the hosting destination, which sets things back even further.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Ryunis wrote:
holidayloverxx wrote:
@Ryunis,

"...once they have been vaccinated"
"...may not happen until they have been vaccinated"

He's saying the same thing twice. I suspect he meant something else.


You know what, I missed out the words " as well" from the end, because I thought it was insignificant, but actually he's referring to the people in the host country so his suggestion is even stricter than I thought. Hi suggestion is that everyone would need to be vaccinated-both travellers and locals in the hosting destination, which sets things back even further.


I think it’s far too early to tell. Early data from the AstraZeneca vaccine is that it can significantly reduce transmission. If the others are similar then it could well be that countries may decide to allow vaccinated people in even if the host country isn’t as far along on its vaccination programme. If any country is likely to do this I’d guess France would be near the top given how much tourism their economy relies on.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Ryunis, yep, that's why I am still doubtful about summer holidays overseas-because they also depend on the vaccination rate in the country you are visiting. For them....they still have people who could be infected (1). For us...those countries could have variants which holiday makers could bring back. (2)
That said, given vaccination seems to significantly reduce transmission which would reduce the risk of (1). And they also significantly reduce your chance of infection at all which would reduce the risk of (2). It seems that it is not the case that vaccination stops you from getting ill-they also stop most people from getting infected at all.
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snowhound wrote:
4. Any variant which had changed its spike protein sufficiently enough to evade a vaccine completely, almost certainly won't be able to use its new spike to infect people-the shape of the spike 'key' has changed so much, it doesn't fit the cell's surface lock any more and can't enter the cell.

I think that isn't emphasised enough. It looks as if there is quite a small number of viable amino acid changes in the variant strains that are emerging, presumably other mutations prove unable to reproduce.

There are reports today of companies working on "second generation" vaccines which would work against variants (AstraZeneca, GSK/Curevac). If they can create one of these against all viable variants then problem sorted. Even if not, an annual jab for the vulnerable in parallel with the flu jab is a totally viable option.
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@j b, It seems there is one particular mutation which keeps popping up all over the world in the new variants-can't remember which random series of numbers and letters it was. The virologist said that was a good thing because if the virus anywhere was using the same trick to evade the immune system, they only needed to produce one new iteration of vaccine to target them all.
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Quote:

presumably other mutations prove unable to reproduce.

Useful to be reminded that this virus is not a sentient entity resolved to conquer the world. As with other organisms mutations are random and some (most?) are a dead end. As Richard Dawkins demonstrated, if there is a "watchmaker" s/he is blind!
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@snowhound, the one they worry most about is E484K. For those who don't happen to know the one-letter amino acid code (honestly, there are a few of us oddballs on the forum) it means that an element of the protein which normally carries a negative charge changes to one with a positive charge. That upsets recognition by antibodies, so people's immunity offers reduced protection.

However the response to vaccination results in the body making a lot of antibodies binding different bits of the virus spike protein, so there will be some unaffected antibodies that still give partial immunity. But two or three such changes in different places would be more of a problem.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Quote:

@j b, It seems there is one particular mutation which keeps popping up all over the world in the new variants-can't remember which random series of numbers and letters it was. The virologist said that was a good thing because if the virus anywhere was using the same trick to evade the immune system, they only needed to produce one new iteration of vaccine to target them all.


This is my feeling too - I'm actually a bit encouraged that the same mutation keeps appearing - suggests there aren't many structural changes that will still allow the virus to work. We might need a booster jab against the N501Y+E484K spike, but once that's done the virus may be largely cornered. Would be way more worrying if there were ten different mutations that all increased infectiousness!
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Quote:
In the long run, this is a not very dangerous disease in the first place
Phew! Glad to hear that! I just woke up from a nightmare where a dangerous virus caused over 100,000 deaths... rolling eyes
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Much excitement about the Brazilian Variant this morning, which as I understand it is more transmissible but slightly less hairy then the Kent...

Yvette Copper:

Asked if there should be a complete ban on flights going forward, she said “there will always be international travel”, for example of people returning home after the expiration of a visa. But she cautioned: “The government is raising expectations about summer holidays that they may not be able to meet.” She said border measures would only become more important as society opens up and domestic cases fall.
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