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France returns to lockdown

 Poster: A snowHead
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@Claude B, but I think as a Nurse witnessing first hand she has a right to criticise this time around?

She certainly would not have been campaigning for the Valley to open up, and like she said she's only had two weeks holiday in the past year as she's been working flat out in the hospital, and she said things were getting back to a more manageable level and now she fears it will be a repeat again after these past four weeks etc
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Weathercam, I guess I was generalising and Briancon is far more diverse than here which is really just a ski town.

I have a friend who is a nurse south of Vienne and she's been run ragged. Caught covid too right at the start due to inadequate PPE. Not helpful that she is also a part time pompier so barely gets a day off.


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Fri 26-02-21 17:38; edited 1 time in total
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
While idly contemplating the inevitable rollover of the EOSB for the second time I checked the Val Thorens website. You really wouldn't know there wasn't skiing except for small print about lifts opening when allowed such was the positivity about all the activities possible, the big festival at the Knife n Fork in March etc (though that seems to be a year out of date!). And that's a place that really is pretty isolated without a permanent population.

https://www.valthorens.com/en/
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Interesting development


https://www.bfmtv.com/international/covid-19-angela-merkel-annonce-l-arrivee-d-un-passeport-vaccinal-avant-l-ete_AN-202102260310.html



According to the German Chancellor, a vaccine passport-type document allowing EU residents to move from one country to another should see the light of day shortly before the summer.

A digital vaccination certification allowing individuals to move between EU countries is likely to see the light of day shortly before the start of summer, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said following a European summit which was held by videoconference.
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That will make more people have the vaccination I’m sure
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Shortly before the start of summer? Exactly 3 months? Puzzled Unless she can produce a miracle, the vast majority of the population won't qualify. rolling eyes

UK planned well in advance, got a good start. Still expect estimate 7 months for all 18+ for 1st jab, + another 3 months for remaining 2nd.
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brianatab wrote:
Still expect estimate 7 months for all 18+ for 1st jab, + another 3 months for remaining 2nd.


Everyone 18+ is expected to get jab by 31st July.

Did you mean 7 months from start to finish, or 7 more months from now?
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@NickYoung, the former i think.....
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The former. Still about 30 million to go, so I think the end of July is the target for the first jab. Add 3 months to complete second. Might be a bit less as full resources would be available.
Possibility of decision on under 18's by then?

On current form, EU might have managed about 20% by then. There will be a lot of discontent if the other 80% won't be able to do "normal" things.
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Claude B wrote:
@Weathercam, I guess I was generalising and Briancon is far more diverse than here which is really just a ski town..


Yes, think you've hit nail on the head there.

The vast majority of people I know prefer the quiet of the interseason etc and relish when the holidays are over and things return back to normal, many do not even ski!

So combine their annual hatred of the visiting hordes with the current Covid situation and hence they're spitting Laughing

Like I've always said, I'd welcome a 3hr 20km lockdown Toofy Grin
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Quote:

The problem with the UK is a lot more people are overweight to obese compared to France

I think the obesity thing is fairly recent in the uk.
Look back at video of the summer of 1976 or skiing in Scotland in the 70s and people are noticeably slimmer and more active. The 1970s weren’t all bad snowHead
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
According to the radio this morning Isere has 192/100000 so pretty safe atm. I left about 8.30 this morning, enough traffic but I only lost 10 to 15 minutes.

Apparently we had a strike yesterday Laughing The french. The guys running the temporary ice rink so it was closed. Not sure why they have a temporary one when the permanent one is outdoors anyway.
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Just back from some friends who have been "marooned" here since Dec 14th and are going back tomorrow with their kids in time for their return to school

They had their tests here yesterday (£1,250 inc all the UK tests!! ) and were told that there's been a major increase in positive cases here.

Prime Minister Jean Castex identified departments in the North, Ile-de-France, East and South-east as areas where the epidemic situation is worrying. A decision is due next week and any new measures would begin March 6...........

Should also add that now I'm not going to be socialising as before inside with a couple of good friends that are meeting and greeting clients in their Gite and apartments for a couple of weeks.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Claude B wrote:
According to the radio this morning Isere has 192/100000 so pretty safe atm. I left about 8.30 this morning, enough traffic but I only lost 10 to 15 minutes.

Apparently we had a strike yesterday Laughing The french. The guys running the temporary ice rink so it was closed. Not sure why they have a temporary one when the permanent one is outdoors anyway.


192 doesn't seem that safe. U.K. is down to 114 and I think the scientists are right about wishing to see it lower, coupled with more being vaccinated.
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@Claude B,
Quote:

According to the radio this morning Isere has 192/100000 so pretty safe atm.

Don't forget that last summer through to September that rate was considered extremely high! The UKs safe travel corridors that only lasted 5 minutes were based 20/100000, you are looking at ten times that "safe" level that soon escalated dramatically.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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If you want to see latest positive numbers / nombre de personnes positives déclarées en 24h à J-3 think this link should work

https://geodes.santepubliquefrance.fr/#bbox=-3326,5931774,1065464,633755&c=indicator&f=0&i=sp_pos_quot.p&s=2021-02-23&t=a01&view=map2

Hautes Alpes 74
Drome 190
Isere 501
Savoie 155
Haute Savoie 261
Rhone/Lyon 751
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Heaving in Lyon. In expectation of being locked down next weekend perhaps.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
As I mentioned take a look at my webcam overlooking Worthing Promenade on a beautiful Spring day and people are following the rules currently, though I'd guess by tomorrow afternoon maybe more from outside the area will travel down and you might see larger groups but on the whole, it's just couples and families.

https://anotherharddayattheoffice.co.uk/worthing-seafront-webcam.html

Further Edit
And like I mentioned about how you can make things look far worse than it actually is by taking a photo and changing the depth of field, I've just seen that the local rag were out yesterday afternoon taking photos saying how busy it was!

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Weathercam wrote:
As I mentioned take a look at my webcam overlooking Worthing Promenade on a beautiful Spring day and people are following the rules currently, though I'd guess by tomorrow afternoon maybe more from outside the area will travel down and you might see larger groups but on the whole, it's just couples and families.

https://anotherharddayattheoffice.co.uk/worthing-seafront-webcam.html

Further Edit
And like I mentioned about how you can make things look far worse than it actually is by taking a photo and changing the depth of field, I've just seen that the local rag were out yesterday afternoon taking photos saying how busy it was!



Which was exactly what happened last summer in Bournemouth , pics taken were very misleading, one wasnt even from.2020 as there had been a fire on the cliff earlier and it wasnt in the picture showing how crowded the beach and prom was,
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Announced yesterday evening that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is now going to be used for over 65s in France too.
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All over 65s will remember is Macron's stupid fit of rage " quasi ineffective" comment.
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Sarkozy has been convicted of corruption. His sentence is three years but it looks like two years on probabtion and maybe one year with house arrest / electronic tagging. I'm struggling to see the major difference between house arrest and being under a COVID lockdown.

https://www.politico.eu/article/nicolas-sarkozy-jail-sentence-corruption/
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DB wrote:
Sarkozy has been convicted of corruption. His sentence is three years but it looks like two years on probabtion and maybe one year with house arrest / electronic tagging. I'm struggling to see the major difference between house arrest and being under a COVID lockdown.

https://www.politico.eu/article/nicolas-sarkozy-jail-sentence-corruption/

You get a free trendy ankle bracelet with house arrest, what's not to like
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Shirley a few baby gates would have been enough to stop him getting out.
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I AM serious.........and don’t call me Shirley! Very Happy
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Might prefer to do jail time rather than listen to his missus warbling on. Cool
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Interesting, and very depressing, thread on Twitter from the Financial Times reporter John Burn-Murdoch on the vaccine effect in France:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1367154751201308672


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Wed 3-03-21 17:45; edited 1 time in total
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Anyone know when the next French gov update re covid restriction is?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Philip1972, Castex tomorrow at 6
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rob@rar wrote:
Interesting thread on Twitter from the Financial Times reporter John Burn-Murdoch on the vaccine effect in France:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1367154751201308672


What's really interesting (to me) in that data is that the effect is visible so much earlier in France than it was in the UK. This seems to be because the underlying lockdown conditions in the UK were so much stricter/more effective, that it was very hard to distinguish signal from noise.

In contrast in France, because the lockdown is having so little effect amongst the younger population, the vaccine effect is much more stark.

It appears that, absent a much stricter lockdown in France, it's going to take much longer than the UK to get things under control - we're starting our vaccination program from a better place. Which is all rather depressing, as I was hoping to be able to visit France in July...
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@Claude B, Thank you!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@snowdave, yes, I agree with that. I think from the beginning of 2021 the best policy for a return to normality has been to have a strong enough lock down to keep a firm lid on the spread of infection, to allow time for a very effective roll-out of vaccines as they become available. I don't think France is doing an especially good job on either of these points. This will mean more deaths than might otherwise have been the case and a longer delay before a return to normality, including opening up the country to international travel.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
But the UK had no choice, there was a massive spike. France's cases have remained relatively flat since Christmas. The holidays which have nearly finished have led to some increases and will probably continue to do so.

I expect Castex will announce further weekend lockdowns. Wandering around Lyon, which is on the watchlist this weekend shopping areas were heaving on Saturday and on Sunday open spaces, parks, the Riverside were. I think if anything really big were to be announced Macron would be rolled out.
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Claude B wrote:
But the UK had no choice, there was a massive spike. France's cases have remained relatively flat since Christmas. The holidays which have nearly finished have led to some increases and will probably continue to do so.

I expect Castex will announce further weekend lockdowns. Wandering around Lyon, which is on the watchlist this weekend shopping areas were heaving on Saturday and on Sunday open spaces, parks, the Riverside were. I think if anything really big were to be announced Macron would be rolled out.


Agreed - the "more transmissible" variants (of whatever nationality) seem to have impacted the UK earlier. However, France seems to have spent a month somewhat in denial (a bit like the UK has done on many occasions so far - when we were all watching images of Italy a year ago, or in October, or in December or even Jan when BoJo announced the return of schoolkids!) - the shift in nature of cases (and impact on R) means it's almost inevitable that without further action, France will see a big spike.

What has been unusual in France is that cases have remained elevated but flat - that's not usually how diseases progress; normally you're either winning or losing. Looking at the mix shift of variants that make up the cases, it appears that France has actually been losing the battle, but the politicians have been ignoring that because the fall in "legacy variant" cases has kept the overall numbers looking flat.
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@rob@rar, the John B-M twitter link shows that if you split that line for France into "legacy" and "new" variants, it would trend down from Jan to March for the legacy, and show a sharp rise (like the UK in December) for "new".

Once the "legacy" variant has become the majority (very shortly), absent any additional lockdown, the overall line will accelerate its rise.

In the immortal words of (I think IIRC!) the Washington Post in March 2020: "This isn't prophecy, it's just math"
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snowdave wrote:
In the immortal words of (I think IIRC!) the Washington Post in March 2020: "This isn't prophecy, it's just math"
Yes, there does seem to be a certain inevitability. It seems to be a race between the new variants with greater transmissibility and the deployment of the vaccine. In the UK we didn't have the vaccines in time to avoid the terrible case numbers and fatality numbers we saw in January. I think France does have an opportunity to do better in that race, if it pulls its finger out and increases their vaccination rate. I very much hope they do, as I'd like to get out to the Alps in the summer rather than waiting until next winter.
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@snowdave, I am not convinced that the enormous peak in the UK was just due to the new variant. Surely a significant contributor (I would guess of 75% of it) was Johnson's decision to open up hospitality in December in places like London where there were very high prevalence areas. Those parts of the UK which had an early surge in October and therefore were not opened up in December saw no such third peak.

France kept hospitality closed throughout and saw no third peak. However with workplaces and schools open (and a less worried public come January) there was no decline in cases. I don't think movement around the country over half term has helped though.
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I'm a bit dubious about the French case numbers. According to Worldometers France has carried out 267,000 tests over the last 2 days, UK 1,514,000.
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A bit like the astonishing genome sequencing data I saw a few weeks ago.
In one week Wales (remember how small Wales is) did more sequencing tests than France had done, in total, since the beginning of the whole pandemic
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