 Poster: A snowHead
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| Kenzie wrote: |
| Mr.Egg wrote: |
Care home residents and staff, healthcare workers – from the beginning of December;
Ages 80 plus – from mid-December;
Everyone aged 70-80 – from late December;
Everyone aged 65-70 – from early January;
All high and moderate risk under 65s – from early January;
Everyone aged 50-65 – from mid-January; and
Everyone aged 18-50 – from late January; but with the bulk of this group vaccinated during March.
Under the plan, every English over-18 who wants a vaccine will be vaccinated by April.
Move all palns to easter! |
Where are all the vaccine doses going to come from? |
Astra Zeneca have hundreds of millions already manufactured.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Raptor23,
Yes, but we wait and pray its a magic bullet
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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First, we have to determine safety. A morally difficult concept when so many people are dying of covid and a if a vaccine is reasonably effective. If safety is satisfactory then the medical bureaucracy can have a wet dream establishing efficacy down to the nearest percentage point when frankly anything marginally effective is better than nothing at all. Personally, my arm is waiting and I would have signed up to a clinical trial of AZ vaccine had there been one in my area.
All to say is, don't hold your breath once the mdical bureaucrats start fiddling around. Could be over a month at best.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Not like the guardian to have a bad news story
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| robs1 wrote: |
| Not like the guardian to have a bad news story |
There is a worse one in the Mail...
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| Quote: |
| Not like the guardian to have a bad news story |
Bad news?!
Haven't you heard? This is the what the majority voted for!
The loss of 25,000 snowsports-industry jobs is a small price to pay for stopping Johnny Foreigner coming over here and taking up all our fruit picking and hospitality industry jobs on the minimum wage 
Thank God we've taken back control!
Rule Britannia!!
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Yeah it's just awful. I mean, the referendum was stolen, it really was.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| mountainaddict wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Not like the guardian to have a bad news story |
Bad news?!
Haven't you heard? This is the what the majority voted for!
The loss of 25,000 snowsports-industry jobs is a small price to pay for stopping Johnny Foreigner coming over here and taking up all our fruit picking and hospitality industry jobs on the minimum wage
Thank God we've taken back control!
Rule Britannia!! |
Fortunately there is a Brexit rant thread or two in Aprés. If you use that, you can still let off steam, and leave this thread uncluttered for those who want to keep up to date with facts on what is affecting in the coming season.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| mitcva wrote: |
| Yeah it's just awful. I mean, the referendum was stolen, it really was. |
Well it wouldn't have been legal if it had been a binding referendum so in a way yes. Hijacked by cheats, liars and dreamers.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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All those dreadful little people without holiday homes in the Alps being allowed to vote...
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In England 313 people have died from Covid in hospital with no pre-existing health conditions under 60. Data correct to Oct 15th 2020- I can't seem to find an updated file. I'd dare say majority on this site fit that demographic. Even if you add the rest of the age groups the total figure is 1439. This data is available on the NHS website.
I acknowledge thousands of people have tragically died with (not from) Covid and other diseases; but they are overwhelmingly older people who are vulnerable as they already have poor health. And who is to say whether Covid killed them or their underlying illness did. We are told that thousands are asymptomatic carriers- so I could take a test today because my workplace asks me to and test positive to Covid despite feeling fine. Then the next day I could be run over by a bus and Id go onto the Covid death statistics.
Also consider all the sick people who died at home because they were too scared to go to hospital or their treatments were cancelled.
For me the reaction (lockdown/ economic ruin) does not match the problem. This isn't even mentioning the awfully inaccurate testing methods used to justify the narrative of the second wave throughout the world. A case is not a death but yet we are taught to fear the case numbers and close the world as if it were.
As for the proposed solution (vaccine) I ask myself why our UK government health agency has paid a private company £1.5 million to develop an artificial intelligence tool to log the predicted high volume of adverse reactions to the vaccine. This has been reported but not in mainstream like the BBC.
https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/emea/uk-use-ai-covid-19-vaccine-side-effects
Back to the topic - Ill be checking the BBC News site to find out the governments decision on ending lockdown 2 a few days before 02/12/20. So far the indications are we will be going back to a tiered local system which is good news for us skiers as I don't believe they had travel restrictions.
Protect the vulnerable..open the world...let it snow
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You know it makes sense.
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See below. The final chart - ‘Winter scenarios’ for Covid deaths in England vs actual deaths - is particularly interesting
https://data.spectator.co.uk/
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The organiser of our trip to VT on Jan 2nd still thinks we'll be going as does one of the chaps who is going (this trip should have gone ahead in March 2020). I'm hoping it will but there are a lot of factors to consider for our group even if the resort is open and we are allowed to travel:
Group of 12 comprising 5 "households" (1 x family of 4, 1 x family of 5, 3 x single individuals) spread across 2 apartments. Minibus transfer for all 12 from GVA to VT and back.
Are each of those households comfortable with being in close proximity to the others when at least 2 of those households have never met?
Will there need to be quarantine either in France or back in England at the start and/or end of the trip?
Vaccine evidences or -ve CV test prior to travel/arrival at GVA/France?
Will there be bars/restaurants open in resort or on mountain (we are S/C so not really a biggie provided supermarkets are open)
Personally I don't think it will happen but at what point do I pull out of the trip?
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Poster: A snowHead
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@astribo, All very well but the hospitals in Switzerland and the 2 Savoies are full. Having hospital capacity is going to be a major factor before allowing piles of non native skiers to break themselves. Interesting fact I learnt yesterday, about 40 skiers/boarders a day are ambulanced out of Val Thorens alone.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@chocksaway, and that's just from the Folie Douce 
@halfhand, presumably you have insurance sorted?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Yoda, Yes. Insurance is sorted.
I guess it's the uncertainty surrounding everything plus for my own situation I'm still weighing up the effects on my family (who are staying in UK).
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@astribo, that contract has been entered into by the MHRA which should be independent of government management. As well as responsibility for evaluating and if appropriate approving new drugs it has the responsibility of monitoring side-effects from any new medicines it approves. It sounds like a good move on their part to recognise in advance that their existing capability can't be scaled to the millions of people who will be receiving newly approved Covid vaccines over a short period, and that they need external help to ensure they won't be overwhelmed.
Whether £1.5M is the right sort of price for this, I have no idea but there are some IT folk on this forum who can surely comment.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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This is a good thing.
All drugs are followed-up by the regulatory agencies long-term once they have been approved. This is done to ensure that there are no rare serious side-effects that were not apparent during the testing process (which involve tens of thousands, but not millions of participants). Or, if there are, what they are, how common they are, and who they are most likely to affect. It looks like we‘re about to embark on the biggest mass vaccination programmes the world has ever seen. Every vaccine has side-effects. Maybe I‘m unlucky but I‘ve never had a vaccine (at least as an adult) that hasn‘t at the very least resulted in a sore arm for a few days. That‘s an „adverse reaction“. So are headaches, fatigue, aches and pains etc. Someone (or something) has to sift though all the reported side effects and work out which are mild and expected (e.g. sore arm), which are serious but completely unrelated (e.g. death in avalanche after receiving vaccine), and which are serious and could be related. When dealing with millions of data points, a couple of statisticians and a spreadsheet aren‘t going to cut it. That‘s why they need a suitable tool to efficiently search the data.
Or would you prefer they just don‘t check? 
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| halfhand wrote: |
I guess it's the uncertainty surrounding everything plus for my own situation I'm still weighing up the effects on my family (who are staying in UK). |
| halfhand wrote: |
| Personally I don't think it will happen but at what point do I pull out of the trip? |
Now?
If you "don't think it'll happen", what are you waiting for?
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@j_b Thanks that is a reasonable theory.
@Gamsbock - Of course its good that the agency is preparing and that's the right thing to do- I was worried by the emphasis on not being able to cope with the volume of adverse reactions - only time will tell.
I'd be interested to hear what you think of the Human Medicines Regulations 2020. My reading of this is that the U.K. government has amended the law to 1) allow unlicensed products to be produced and administered and 2) include the pharmaceutical companies manufacturing the vaccines as partially immune from civil liability.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1125/pdfs/uksiem_20201125_en.pdf
I could understand the need for such legislation if the doomsday predictions of Ferguson, Whittey and Valance had materialised and the Nightingale Hospitals were full to the brim but the situation is far from that.
Thanks to @mitcva post for some good data / perspective: https://data.spectator.co.uk/
Can't wait to hit the slopes with my Snood
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@astribo, you don't need ai to log stuff. It could be useful in interpreting the data, but I'm not sure if there would be sufficient data per person to need ai, I.e. any pattern could be spotted by traditional methods.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| philwig wrote: |
| Pastorius wrote: |
| It amuses me that a bunch of people who willingly throw themselves down mountains on bits of wood are discussing risk profile |
It amuses me that you don't understand that the ability to understand risk is precisely what enables people to "throw themselves down mountains" safely. It's the least dangerous sport I'm involved in.
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Corr crikey you lot are a laugh
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Tunnel, overnight hotel and apartment all booked for Easter
Cancellation insurance (with Covid cover) in place
Can't lose and gives us something to look forward to 
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You know it makes sense.
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@Boris, where have
You got that insurance from?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Big question for a lot of us now is when will it all be allowed again? Seeming more and more likely that at SOME point in the season we'll be permitted to get a trip in, but at what stage do they call it? I think the government is dead scared of looking like they're loosening up until the vaccine is in full flow.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@astribo Aren't you just fitting the data to your own individual world-view?
'I'd dare say majority on this site fit that demographic.'
- You can't possibly know that. I don't think even admin knows it, as the data is voluntary.
'they are overwhelmingly older people who are vulnerable as they already have poor health'
- Isn't this conflating poor health with 'pre-existing conditions'? Most people over 45 have some sort of pre-existing condition. 35% of guys over 50 have high blood pressure. 1 in 3 guys over 50 have BHP. And so on. You're characterising those seriously affected as almost all elderly and seriously ill. Which is not the case.
'For me the reaction (lockdown/ economic ruin) does not match the problem.'
- For me, this is the politicians' False Alternative: it isn't a case of a few slightly early elderly deaths vs dire economic impact. Whatever we did, the outcome was going to be dire economic impact. It was a matter of minimising this along with minimising the health impact too. There was never a way to 'buy' jobs with corresponding deaths.
' log the predicted high volume of adverse reactions'
- No one is predicting any particular level. But there will be some, it's inevitable. So we need a good mechanism for tracking them. This is standard procedure.
'Protect the vulnerable..open the world'
- Protect the Vulnerable is a useful slogan, but it's too often taken to mean 'isolate the vulnerable'. Which is impossible if you think about it. There is no way protecting the vulnerable allows 'everyone else' to get 'back to normal'. It's a nice soundbite for Ministers and yes, reminds people to think more carefully about their contacts, but it's no sort of solution - the only 'solution' is a comprehensive immunisation programme.
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Mon 23-11-20 15:00; edited 2 times in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@NickyJ, The cancellation insurance is from CIS Immobilier who we have rented the apartment from.
The overnight hotel is usual can cancel any time up to day before and Eurotunnel now do a refundable ticket (but also offer Insurance)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@astribo, sorry I didn't respond last night.
That legislation link is written in officialese which doesn't easily make it fully interpretable. But it looks as if it is part of contingency planning.
One thing is around personnel. Normally vaccination is done entirely by healthcare-registered NHS staff (or privately employed contractors like pharmacists). They are covering the potential (and theoretical) liability if non-NHS staff were used to help with fast mass roll-out; for example I could imagine they might want to give a specific vaccination training to experienced St John volunteers (no evidence that particular scenario is part of plans by the way).
Another is around variations of the medicine licence. Most news items have concentrated on the job of the regulatory agencies such as the MHRA in the UK in assessing the evidence for efficacy and safety. But actually a lot of regulatory approval is around quality control, with the submitted dossier having to define in some details the manufacturing process, sources of raw materials, techniques and criteria for batch testing, packaging and storage. It is all about ensuring the medicine the patient receives is exactly equivalent in safety terms to the one used in the trial for which detailed evidence has been scrutinised. Normally if a company wants to open another factory making the same drug, or even just use a different supplier for a raw material, it needs submitting an extensive application to vary the existing licence. It sounds as if they have created the legal framework to fast-track such an application.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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good news about the quarntine being reduced to 5 days, ...but then i looked at the webcam for monterosa...(i know i should not have ) and there's hardly any snow !!!, its normally open this time of year...seems like just as they change the rules to allow us to go only to find no snow and all the cafes shut...oh hum..best laid plans of mice and men eh ?? Man plans and god laughs..!! bought new skis as well
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| yorkshirelad wrote: |
| good news about the quarntine being reduced to 5 days, ...but then i looked at the webcam for monterosa...(i know i should not have ) and there's hardly any snow !!!, its normally open this time of year...seems like just as they change the rules to allow us to go only to find no snow and all the cafes shut...oh hum..best laid plans of mice and men eh ?? Man plans and god laughs..!! bought new skis as well |
Where've you got the 5 days quarantine from?
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@Boris, Where are you getting your Covid medical insurance if travelling against FCDO advice?
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| Pastorius wrote: |
| yorkshirelad wrote: |
| good news about the quarntine being reduced to 5 days, ...but then i looked at the webcam for monterosa...(i know i should not have ) and there's hardly any snow !!!, its normally open this time of year...seems like just as they change the rules to allow us to go only to find no snow and all the cafes shut...oh hum..best laid plans of mice and men eh ?? Man plans and god laughs..!! bought new skis as well |
Where've you got the 5 days quarantine from? |
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8971963/Foreign-travel-quarantine-slashed-14-days-five.html
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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FAQ
I was trying to avoid the daily mail 