 Poster: A snowHead
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Don't know whether its been mentioned somewhere else but we've had the news that Skitotal have cancelled the whole season for their chalets and hotels in France.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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There might be some isolated areas where 30-50% have had the virus, but in total across Europe it doesn't seem to anywhere near that number. UK 1.4million to date, from a population of 67million. So even if the actual number of cases was 10 times higher we'd still only be at 20% of the population.
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I like the idea of the 8 month cadence..... but you're basically talking about the so-called herd immunity....
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Is it? ("basically talking about the so-called herd immunity")
I can't quite see the connection.
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The original suggestion up the thread, was that the apparent 8 month 'cycle' of peaks might be explained by antibodies in those infected during the first wave waning after about 6 months, which then allows the 2nd wave to take off. This implies that the number of people with antibodies is significant enough to have an impact on the overall infection rate (i.e. during the summer respite we were benefiting from the so-called herd immunity effect). As per the above figures, I don't think enough people have been infected for this to be the case. I'd like to be wrong about that though !
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Tue 17-11-20 19:15; edited 2 times in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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as in ski total ?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| robs1 wrote: |
| as in ski total ? |
Was that meant for me ? `if so yes, we had le Savoie booked in Val D'isere booked for March and they've cancelled so we're booking for 2022.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| gad wrote: |
| robs1 wrote: |
| as in ski total ? |
Was that meant for me ? `if so yes, we had le Savoie booked in Val D'isere booked for March and they've cancelled so we're booking for 2022. |
Their web site is still saying they are taking bookings
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| robs1 wrote: |
| gad wrote: |
| robs1 wrote: |
| as in ski total ? |
Was that meant for me ? `if so yes, we had le Savoie booked in Val D'isere booked for March and they've cancelled so we're booking for 2022. |
Their web site is still saying they are taking bookings |
I tried to go through to booking on one esprit holiday and got an error message.
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Just tried Inghams and Total and both appear to be taking bookings from 2 Jan 21. It has been widely reported their parent company, Hotelplan, cancelled all hols until that date.
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| gad wrote: |
| Don't know whether its been mentioned somewhere else but we've had the news that Skitotal have cancelled the whole season for their chalets and hotels in France. |
The reports I've seen are that they've cancelled everything for the remainder of this "year", rather than "season", so at least until 31 December.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| gad wrote: |
| robs1 wrote: |
| as in ski total ? |
Was that meant for me ? `if so yes, we had le Savoie booked in Val D'isere booked for March and they've cancelled so we're booking for 2022. |
That stinks. Hopefully you still get an opportunity this season. Fingers crossed.
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| Littbobellski wrote: |
| gad wrote: |
| robs1 wrote: |
| as in ski total ? |
Was that meant for me ? `if so yes, we had le Savoie booked in Val D'isere booked for March and they've cancelled so we're booking for 2022. |
That stinks. Hopefully you still get an opportunity this season. Fingers crossed. |
it's customary on here to say , Welcome to Snow-heads. 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Cheers!!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| ski3 wrote: |
| thelem wrote: |
| but that we should expect them to go up again when flu season hits, which is exactly what has happened. |
Covid isn't flu though!
The concern is coping with covid numbers AND flu numbers concurrently, isn't it? Flu doesn't cause it. |
I wasn't trying to suggest that covid was the same as flu in terms of treatment or symptoms, but it is a respiratory disease that spreads in the same way as flu. Therefore the same effects that cause a regular wave of flu cases in a normal autumn were predicted to cause a wave of covid cases this autumn.
A big part of that is being indoors more, which seems to be particularly important for covid.
| snowdave wrote: |
| The whole indoors/outdoors thing isn't that material unless you have a job that can move from inside to outside (maybe for painters). My own indoors/outdoors patterns, as a reasonably typical office worker, are that in winter I spend over 110 hours (our of 120 possible) indoors on weekdays and in summer that drops to about 105hrs as I'm more likely to walk between meetings or eat lunch outside. That <5% variance. |
Even if you didn't spend more time outdoors, you're likely to have windows open which makes a big difference. And hospitality is a big place where things get spread, and there's a lot of outdoor hospitality in the summer.
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You know it makes sense.
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| thelem wrote: |
| Even if you didn't spend more time outdoors, you're likely to have windows open which makes a big difference. And hospitality is a big place where things get spread, and there's a lot of outdoor hospitality in the summer. |
Most offices I know of are air conditioned, closed environments.
For most people, where they spend their day is not flexible - their place of work is inside or outside - posties can't decided to do a desk job because it's raining, and (until WFH kicked in and I wasn't in the office anyway) I can't take my desk outside when it's sunny. Their commute is the same summer vs winter - the trains don't empty out in summer.
In my pre-COVID life, if I were to catch a respiratory virus, it would have been either at home from family, in the office, on the train/tube, or on a plane.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Alastair Pink wrote: |
| https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/ski/news/hotelplan-scraps-all-ski-chalets-family-esprit-holidays/?fbclid=IwAR2BIuEEztRUeXfnfC0Vl4RTV5dnr8dX7ZhOS4vYGmXIgStaNDK0bWhn_tE |
Seems to be chalet holidays taking the biggest hit at the moment - ski operators pinning their hopes on self catering by the sounds of it
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Poster: A snowHead
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| thelem wrote: |
| ... And hospitality is a big place where things get spread, and there's a lot of outdoor hospitality in the summer. |
As far as seasonality is concerned, I think our knowledge of transmission is still evolving - I read multiple abstracts the other day which suggested that the immune system performance may vary with a circadian rhythm,
and there is also evidence of seasonal variation which may explain why some things get worse in summer, others in winter.
Anecdotally my local university had a large spike associated with the start of the current lockdown, which
some believe was related to the price of beer in Wetherspoons. Inebriated people shouting at each
other in poorly ventilated spaces... what could possibly go wrong?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Alastair Pink wrote: |
| https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/ski/news/hotelplan-scraps-all-ski-chalets-family-esprit-holidays/?fbclid=IwAR2BIuEEztRUeXfnfC0Vl4RTV5dnr8dX7ZhOS4vYGmXIgStaNDK0bWhn_tE |
Any glimmer of hope I had of getting away this winter is disappearing fast.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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posties can't decided to do a desk job because it's raining,
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Although WFH since March I have noticed an amazing correlation between days it rains and days I get no post
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| queenie pretty please wrote: |
| @boyanr, where do you get 30-50% from? In Austria, since the beginning of the pandemic a total of 208,000 people have been infected. From a population of just under 9 million. And of course some of those infected are tourists who do not live in Austria. So a conservative estimate would suggest that less than 2% of the population has been infected so far. Which country has had infection rates of between 30 and 50%? |
I am taking for 30-50% rates by the end of the current wave in december.
The estimate is based on flu waves – they are known to go through 30-50% of populations before they die out.
Official PCR testing only catches a small fraction of cases. Might be 1 in 10 for some countries, and 1 in 20 for others. But in all cases - it's just a fraction.
And finally, the regions that got a real big wave in spring actually did get 30-50% already (and have very few cases currently). Bergamo has like 60%, Stockholm has 30+, London as well I believe. The places hit hard now are the ones that had very cases in spring.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Hotelplan retrenching to fill other people's hotels. Esprit only marked 1 chalet hotel outside France.
AIUI tour ops pay French chalet rental in 5 instalments starting 1 Oct. I'm guessing they can delay no longer and with so much uncertainty have pulled the plug. Not sure what the break clauses in the leases look like and whether owners will revert to the law. But they won't be in a strong position as no one is going to be looking for unlet chalets to rent.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| boyanr wrote: |
| queenie pretty please wrote: |
| @boyanr, where do you get 30-50% from? In Austria, since the beginning of the pandemic a total of 208,000 people have been infected. From a population of just under 9 million. And of course some of those infected are tourists who do not live in Austria. So a conservative estimate would suggest that less than 2% of the population has been infected so far. Which country has had infection rates of between 30 and 50%? |
I am taking for 30-50% rates by the end of the current wave in december.
The estimate is based on flu waves – they are known to go through 30-50% of populations before they die out.
Official PCR testing only catches a small fraction of cases. Might be 1 in 10 for some countries, and 1 in 20 for others. But in all cases - it's just a fraction.
And finally, the regions that got a real big wave in spring actually did get 30-50% already (and have very few cases currently). Bergamo has like 60%, Stockholm has 30+, London as well I believe. The places hit hard now are the ones that had very cases in spring. |
I don't know if you can really go by flu waves because we don't lock down the country for flu waves, so it's apples and oranges really.
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| snowdave wrote: |
| Their commute is the same summer vs winter |
I think that's quite a UK-centric view.
Many seasonal jobs in France are done by people who travel from region to region from Winter to Summer, or by people who do 2 different jobs (like Mrs WoC, ESF and language teaching) so the commute is very different.
Even for boring types like me who do the same job year round, in the Winter I take the ferry whereas Spring & Summer I go by motorbike.
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| snowdave wrote: |
Their commute is the same summer vs winter - the trains don't empty out in summer.
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Really? I guess it depends on which city, which country etc...
I live in a city. In the summer, the subway ("tube" for you) do get a fair bit emptier. A lot of people walk or cycle to work when the day is warm and sunny. In the winter, very few people walk or cycle. And on days that are abnormally cold, the trains got pretty jammed up. For even people who live relatively close by and usually walk to work decided they don't want to walk THAT DAY.
So, seasonal variation is quite a possibility. At least in some locale.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@WindOfChange, fair point, it's probably more of a "permanent employment"-centric view. Those with temporary/seasonal employment might see more variety, and in some countries the commute may vary more (tho NJ Transit/Port Authority data suggests NYC isn't one of those!).
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| boyanr wrote: |
| queenie pretty please wrote: |
| @boyanr, where do you get 30-50% from? In Austria, since the beginning of the pandemic a total of 208,000 people have been infected. From a population of just under 9 million. And of course some of those infected are tourists who do not live in Austria. So a conservative estimate would suggest that less than 2% of the population has been infected so far. Which country has had infection rates of between 30 and 50%? |
I am taking for 30-50% rates by the end of the current wave in december.
The estimate is based on flu waves – they are known to go through 30-50% of populations before they die out.
Official PCR testing only catches a small fraction of cases. Might be 1 in 10 for some countries, and 1 in 20 for others. But in all cases - it's just a fraction.
And finally, the regions that got a real big wave in spring actually did get 30-50% already (and have very few cases currently). Bergamo has like 60%, Stockholm has 30+, London as well I believe. The places hit hard now are the ones that had very cases in spring. |
I think there is still a lot we don't know, there are problems with testing, and estimates of how many people who have been infected even by experts is conjecture. No expert would hazard a guess as to what proportion are immune. Unfortunately last few weeks have demonstrated that places who suffered a devastating first wave can still experience massive second wave problems. Northern Italy case in point, likely had as high a rate of infection as anywhere and yet their hospitals overrun again
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@gad, They cancelled all ski holidays booked for December last week - no season opener in St Anton for me 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I'm with Crystal in mid January and inghams 1st week Feb.. All still on at the moment.. Fingers crossed
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You know it makes sense.
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Re herd immunity.. They were telling us a few weeks ago that 90000 per day were catching covid... Add that figure to April and May.. Oh and a bit of June and you will find more than 1.5 million have had covid... Also the figures as of 1st October include all Flu deaths.. So but unclear on deaths at the moment..
All this info is availble from the ONS and SAGE.. Just saying
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| paulo wrote: |
| The original suggestion up the thread, was that the apparent 8 month 'cycle' of peaks might be explained by antibodies in those infected during the first wave waning after about 6 months, which then allows the 2nd wave to take off. This implies that the number of people with antibodies is significant enough to have an impact on the overall infection rate (i.e. during the summer respite we were benefiting from the so-called herd immunity effect). As per the above figures, I don't think enough people have been infected for this to be the case. I'd like to be wrong about that though ! |
This is at odds with the curves that were observed in the USA, for instance specifically california (to adjust the comparison to a smaller
area).
I think our european summer was mild mostly because we got numbers down after the lockdowns and then started living outside and practise safety measures.
Now we're living inside and some but not all are practising safety measures, and that seems to be insufficient.
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Poster: A snowHead
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In a word : no.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| peanuthead wrote: |
| Northern Italy case in point, likely had as high a rate of infection as anywhere and yet their hospitals overrun again |
You may be ignoring the structural (fragmented hospital organisation?) and sociological situation (close, multi-generational families) underlying?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@under a new name, you would know these dynamics much better than me, but point being made is there doesn't appear to be any measurable herd immunity in arguably one of places worst hit by first wave in the world, unfortunately
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| yorkshirelad wrote: |
Re herd immunity.. They were telling us a few weeks ago that 90000 per day were catching covid... Add that figure to April and May.. Oh and a bit of June and you will find more than 1.5 million have had covid... Also the figures as of 1st October include all Flu deaths.. So but unclear on deaths at the moment..
All this info is availble from the ONS and SAGE.. Just saying |
Flu and Covid deaths are stated separately. https://fullfact.org/health/flu-covid-phe-not-combined
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
Re herd immunity.. They were telling us a few weeks ago that 90000 per day were catching covid... Add that figure to April and May.. Oh and a bit of June and you will find more than 1.5 million have had covid... Also the figures as of 1st October include all Flu deaths.. So but unclear on deaths at the moment..
All this info is availble from the ONS and SAGE.. Just saying
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So, what are you "just saying"? That the figures are wrong, or made up, or misleading, or what?
The fact that you are ‘just saying’ something ignorant and offensive doesn’t make it less offensive. Just responding...
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Bergamo infection rate is around 35%, so still a way from herd immunity.
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Herd Immunity is a pretty meaningless short/medium-term concept unless you have a vaccine and an associated general immunisation programme. Because it's the point at which the % of those un-immunised is small enough to contain future outbreaks locally, as opposed to them spreading. It can be reached naturally, but this can take years: as shown in the H1N1 Spanish 'Flu epidemic, which took about 3-4 years of repeated cycles of suppression then epidemic, involving substantial levels of excess deaths, to reach HI. The HI % for different diseases varies a lot, from around 60% up to 98%. On that basis, we'll be lucky if we get to it with an immunisation programme by autumn 2021 (just in terms of the limitations of supplies and logistics). And that also assumes people will sign-up in enough numbers to reach the % needed. Because if we don't get enough people immunised, then the whole exercise is pointless - outbreaks just keep on cycling through the community i.e. you're constantly chasing your tail, so to speak.
This is why an education programme needs to start now. It's not enough just to dismiss people's concerns because, unfortunately, there is a history of real vaccine mistakes and the existence of real side-effect examples means you can't simply deny that there are problems. You have to admit issues can arise and then convince people that the miniscule chances of any significant downsides are outweighed by the enormous upsides. This doesn't lend itself to a tabloid headline approach, or to the usual party-political propaganda strategy that polarises opinion into binary opposites.
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Thu 19-11-20 12:26; edited 1 time in total
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Bergamo has very few cases at the moment - the hospitals are taking patients from other cities. Milan has a lot of cases, but it had few in the spring.
HI % depends on how infectious the disease is. Measles is very infectious so you need over 90% to reach herd immunity. A sick person in a building can even infect people in different rooms. For flu it is estimated at 50-60% as one person typically does not infect more than 2 others. We still don't know as precise for covid but it seems to be similar to flu. So 60% must be enough... And while it will take 2-3 years for the whole planet to reach this, a lot of regions in Europe will be there by spring.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@boyanr That may be so, and I hope that it is, but it involves quite a lot of 'if's happening. What concerns me is that the UK media and politicians aren't very good at getting over the subtleties of epidemiology. There's a huge amount of coverage of vaccines at the moment, and I can see a lot of people immediately signing-up for one when it becomes available. But I can also see a lot of people hanging back as well, ranging from the (understandable) 'I'm never the first to try anything new.' through to the 'It's a Bill Gates Big Pharma Leftie Remainer immigrant Deep State SNP 5G paedophile alien Obamacare anti-gun urban elite Wuhan conspiracy'. I'd like our authorities to start the education work now, so at least the undecided might be won over by the arguments for immunisation.
For example, some people are going to get vaccinated and then die unexpectedly. It won't be anything to do with the vaccine, just the usual post hoc ergo propter hoc coincidence. This will be fodder for the anti-vax propagandists. Cue BBC interviewing an 'expert' pro and an anti-vaxxer, for 'balance' - the pro expert representing a couple of thousand, well, experts who've spent their lives qualifying as doctors and postgraduate researchers, and who have worked on containing epidemics of SARS, Ebola and the rest / the anti-vaxxer a rogue medical sociopath with conspiracy delusions. But it'll be 'balanced' and persuade another 250,000 people not to get vaccinated just yet.
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@LaForet, so true.
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FAQ
