 Poster: A snowHead
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| thefatcontroller wrote: |
| Alastair Pink wrote: |
| susieski wrote: |
| Being denied skiing is disappointing BUT the damage being done to the ski industry right down to the shops, cleaners , all suppliers etc should be our main concern |
Of course it's not only the ski related businesses in the resorts that are affected, UK based ski related businesses such as bootfitters have also been hit very hard by the two lockdowns.  |
People do have sympathy with headline industries but they often forget about the supply chain that sits behind the industry. Travel, skiing, servies, the supply chains are devastated and many will never recover. |
indeed, and it's the second, third, fourth order consequences. I'm sure a clever economist can give us the appropriate terminology, but when eg, a cafe/restaurant is closed down its obviously not just the owner, waiting staff etc that are affected, but the suppliers, the drivers of the supplier, the people that work to support the suppliers, growers, farmers etc. This is why lockdowns are so economically devastating. the financial repercussions of covid 19 will dwarf the 2007 economic crash which largely only directly affected those in the financial services industry.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Dravot wrote: |
| thefatcontroller wrote: |
| Alastair Pink wrote: |
| susieski wrote: |
| Being denied skiing is disappointing BUT the damage being done to the ski industry right down to the shops, cleaners , all suppliers etc should be our main concern |
Of course it's not only the ski related businesses in the resorts that are affected, UK based ski related businesses such as bootfitters have also been hit very hard by the two lockdowns. |
People do have sympathy with headline industries but they often forget about the supply chain that sits behind the industry. Travel, skiing, servies, the supply chains are devastated and many will never recover. |
indeed, and it's the second, third, fourth order consequences. I'm sure a clever economist can give us the appropriate terminology, but when eg, a cafe/restaurant is closed down its obviously not just the owner, waiting staff etc that are affected, but the suppliers, the drivers of the supplier, the people that work to support the suppliers, growers, farmers etc. This is why lockdowns are so economically devastating. the financial repercussions of covid 19 will dwarf the 2007 economic crash which largely only directly affected those in the financial services industry. |
100% agree and some sense at last. The economic tsunami on its way it going to make COVID look pleasant. The optimist in me though says that once the vaccine is rolled out then the bounce back should be quicker than the 2007 crash as the main issue is we can't spend money or do normal things but yes the supply chain effects are truly terrifying. Lock downs don't work...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Dravot wrote: |
| .... I'm sure a clever economist can give us the appropriate terminology, but when eg, a cafe/restaurant is closed down its obviously not just the owner, waiting staff etc that are affected, but the suppliers, the drivers of the supplier, the people that work to support the suppliers, growers, farmers etc. This is why lockdowns are so economically devastating. ... |
Not sure that's a particularly good example. Not eating in a café/restaurant, probably does primarily impact just the owner, waiting staff etc. Most people will eat elsewhere, even if at home, so the reduction in deliveries to the restaurant is offset by an increase in deliveries elsewhere, and the same in aggregate for suppliers, growers, farmers etc. The overall impact on the economy is more limited.
Deciding to holiday in the UK instead of abroad, or replacing a ski holiday with a summer holiday in 2021, if spending a similar amount, also has a more limited worldwide impact, and can even be beneficial for the UK alone. But deciding to stay at home doing very little instead of taking a holiday clearly has a much bigger impact.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| ecureuil wrote: |
| Dravot wrote: |
| .... I'm sure a clever economist can give us the appropriate terminology, but when eg, a cafe/restaurant is closed down its obviously not just the owner, waiting staff etc that are affected, but the suppliers, the drivers of the supplier, the people that work to support the suppliers, growers, farmers etc. This is why lockdowns are so economically devastating. ... |
Not sure that's a particularly good example. Not eating in a café/restaurant, probably does primarily impact just the owner, waiting staff etc. Most people will eat elsewhere, even if at home, so the reduction in deliveries to the restaurant is offset by an increase in deliveries elsewhere, and the same in aggregate for suppliers, growers, farmers etc. The overall impact on the economy is more limited.
Deciding to holiday in the UK instead of abroad, or replacing a ski holiday with a summer holiday in 2021, if spending a similar amount, also has a more limited worldwide impact, and can even be beneficial for the UK alone. But deciding to stay at home doing very little instead of taking a holiday clearly has a much bigger impact. |
I used a restaurant as a simple example as I'm not an economist and it is one that I can easily relate to to demonstrate the downstream economic impact (I would also argue home eating habits are not the same as eating out). Your example of not booking a ski holiday has a direct impact on ppl in the UK involved in the ski industry, whether that be boot fitters, travel companies or airline staff (everything from aircrew, to ground staff, to airport operations)...their money dries up and so the reverberation is felt 3rd/4th order. There may be micro-examples of winners in a recession, but there are far more losers.
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@thefatcontroller, and affecting people generally who are years or decades younger than your average Covid victim.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Unfortunately I’ve already seen the effects first hand on people who haven’t contracted Covid but are suffering in other ways
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I've just had notification from Inghams that they are confident that my planned holiday in Austria in February is still going to take place so fingers crossed there is a way through this as it will give me something to look forward to during the long winter months.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| thefatcontroller wrote: |
| Bergmeister wrote: |
"The economic tsunami on its way is going to make COVID look pleasant."
Are you seriously suggesting that any detriment to the economy will be worse than the deaths from Covid   ? |
Yes. Mental health issues, delays to other forms of care, people too scared to go to hospital for check ups & cancers etc not being caught in time etc..I could go on but it is already in the public domain, do some reading. |
You're absolutely right to say that these effects matter, but I hope you're not suggesting that there is expert consensus on how significant they are relative to Covid-related morbidity and mortality. I'm a physician and I can tell you for certain that true experts are being cautious with their claims. It's not "in the public domain," unless you mean that various people have published conflicting opinions about it, and "doing some reading" will just expose you to amateur theories with no evidence base.
If we're being honest here, we can say that (1) we don't know that much about the long term consequences of Covid exposure because they haven't happened yet, and (2) therefore balancing the risks of viral transmission against the economic and mental health effects of a lockdown is a pure judgement call.
I'm not saying that you're wrong here. I'm just saying that you are far more confident than an expert would be, and far more confident than the evidence would support.
(For example, it's clear that Covid affects the central nervous system and it's clear that it causes vasculitic change. Twenty years from now, will we see an increase in the numbers of strokes and heart attacks in young, asymptomatic people who had Covid in 2020? It's a real possibility and we just won't know until we know. This is a new disease that is behaving in some unusual ways, it's not simple.)
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| NickyJ wrote: |
| There was an article a bit ago which was on the BBC where medical professionals were calling for a different route in release from lockdown. Calling for the rule of 6 to be ditched (I was arguing when it was announced that would lead to increase in cases) to be replaced by a max or 2 households. That appears to have been completely ignored but one which I would have stood behind... |
The trouble with a rule of 2 households is that it's hard to judge from looking at a group how many households they come from. This means bars and restaurants can't enforce it even if they try (and many would rather not try, if they can get away with it), and everyone's looking at big groups thinking "they can't be from two households" and adding to tensions. The rule of 6 is simple to understand, easy to enforce and limits the mixing of households, although admittedly not as much as a 2-household rule would.
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You know it makes sense.
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Restriction in Hong Kong restaurants is maximum 4 to a table.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| ski3 wrote: |
| Skimum1 wrote: |
| @jabuzzard, no need for misogynist language like that thanks about a child. No matter how reprehensible her conduct. |
Agree.
If you feel other's are on the same wavelength here jabuzzard, then you're mistaken. |
The girl in question was in the upper sixth. My niece turned 18 earlier this month, some school pupils are legally adults...
Frankly if I was the head teacher I would have permanently excluded her. Oh and what the bejesus where her parents doing allowing their tested positive daughter in October six months into a global pandemic that is causing huge economic harm to go to into school "because she wanted to see her friends". Had it happened on the Monday instead of the Friday the monumentally irresponsible moron could have been fined £10k which would have been appropriate along with expulsion. If you where to do full forward contract tracing statistically there is a very high likelihood that her actions have lead to someone dying.
I am quite happy using such just about any derogatory language to describe a monumentally reckless selfish twit who has quite likely killed someone through their thoughtless actions.
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Tue 1-12-20 1:11; edited 1 time in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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It's you that would need to proof read your own copy to understand why other's opinions are offered against you 
| jabuzzard wrote: |
| The critical difference being no après-ski. There was a binary choice of schools/universities go back and closing the pubs. Instead both where done and it went pear shaped. Then of course there are far to many people are not following the rules in particular like the stupid bitch at my nieces school in Liverpool who decided to despite having a positive test she wanted to see her friends so went in anyway with predictable results. The rot set in when the idiot Johnson didn't sack Cumming in April. Then again it appears if you are connected the rules don't apply, see lack of planning permission and no council tax paid on the property he stayed in with no enforcement or fines. |
Why should any apology be expected given those words?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I came to this thread for a bit.... Big mistake. Byyyye
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Politicians love the False Alternative, as it diverts attention away from their incompetence in handling the complexities of real life, and it usually sets off the extreme ends of two groups into an argument that serves as useful cover, so they can slip away amidst the noise.
So you get "It's either further education places, or elderly care beds." or "It's either investing in British jobs, or providing affordable homes." and so on. The media support this by inviting someone from each lobby to beat each other up e.g. in the former case, a University Vice-chancellor and a Housing Association director. Trouble is, while the issues discussed will often be important and relevant, the underlying False Alternative is just that, false.
So it is with the economy and jobs versus 'a few premature elderly deaths' - a common Covid False Alternative touted by politicians. Because this isn't the choice on the table at all. The fallout from a global pandemic is always going to be dire economic impact and a big hit on jobs. Along with that, there will be huge pressure on health services. And consequential deaths from a diversity of causes. What's key is how well governments handle the complex logistics of dealing with the pandemic.
There is also no 'cure worse than the disease' situation. The cure is a vaccine and mass immunisation. Everything else is countermeasures to minimise deaths, NHS pressure, unemployment and bankruptcy. Which is a very complex equation and not amenable to being characterised in a simplistic soundbite.
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I have been thinking on this and it is unfair of me to say that they haven’t learned and made adjustments in strategies (even if I think there should have been more and different ones...).
One is that this time they have allowed exercise with one other - one of my work colleagues neighbours died out running during lockdown, still isn’t 100% clear what exactly happened but as far as I can gather they had medical difficulties but being alone obviously no assistance was got to them in time and due to them not having their mobile phone in them in that occasion it was weeks before his body was found
Also this time they have allowed children to stay in school. So adjustments are there and I need to acknowledge they are trying to adapt.
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| LaForet wrote: |
| Politicians love the False Alternative... |
Perhaps better described as "false dilemma", as the fallacy is to suggest that there is a dilemma, where as few things are ever quite that simple.
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Mark Warners earliest departure moved to St Valentine's day (or half term madness!)
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@diaphon, @jabuzzard, some good points above
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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You know it makes sense.
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Our Italy trip on 29th January looking doubtfully now..After our 9th January qas cancelled..  Italy has terrible figures and it appears not to be improving.. Can't see them letting us in within the next 6 weeks. So resided to not skiing in 2021 apart from indoor thingy..
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I'm still hopeful for our 9th January trip to Austria! Push it back a day until the 10th so try to miss the quarantine requirements, fingers crossed. But realistically, can't see it happening
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Poster: A snowHead
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I have trips to France booked for late Jan, Feb half term, early March and Easter.
The only one I think I have any chance of taking is Easter. Even that I'd say is 75:25 against; for it to happen I think we need vaccination to go exactly to plan in the UK, and that's not been the recent track record of anything much.
I have 3 gating factors: 1) whether it's permitted to go, 2) whether it's practical to go (isolation etc. for the kids) and 3) whether it's safe to go.
On current case counts, both in the UK and in France, any trip I take has a material impact on the chance that I spread the virus, so the last point is actually the biggest gating factor or I'd be going at Xmas. To paraphrase - if I'm not part of the solution [i.e. keeping contact levels to the absolute minimum] then I'm part of the problem (crikey I sound like an Arlberg-o-phile alleged Dutch taxi driver!). My current non-household contact levels are zero at <2m, I couldn't reliably sustain that skiing.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@yorkshirelad,
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Italy has terrible figures and it appears not to be improving
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Their 7 day moving average has gone from 34500 to 16400 cases in the last month And still dropping, so they are currently very much going in the right direction (unlike the UK where it went from 24000 down to 14000, then back up to 18000 on a rising trajectory)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Just to confirm , we're not skiing in London so that can't be the cause 
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| ski3 wrote: |
| Just to confirm , we're not skiing in London so that can't be the cause |
Hang on, you say you're NOT skiing in London, and the cases are rising without any end in sight...ergo not skiing must be the cause of the problem. The only cure to this must be state subsidised ski trips.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Ah, good point well made @Pastorius, in that case better get cracking to help bring the number of infections down. Everyone has a duty to do their bit 
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So France is looking less likely now. We've just had our hold on a chalet for 7th March cancelled, we were about to pay deposits, but they called to say they aren't taking any bookings now.
They've said the recent opening date for lofts is a placatting move until the new year as the french government have said the opening is dependent on decreasing Covid cases and they are rising again in France. The same applies to getting a travel corridor sorted and London going into tier 3, which will resume after the Christmas Covidfest, was the last straw.
Personally I think they'll open for half term but at short notice so will allow self catering side but will not leave enough time for chalets and even some hotels.
Anyway fingers crossed there isnt too much of a ballooning of cases
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| Quote: |
Is This Season Going To Happen for The British ???
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Sadly I just don't see it happening - situation is worsening all over Europe, we are just about the only country relaxing things for the festive period vs Holland, Italy, Germany etc who are tightening via lockdowns, it can only end in trouble for January/ February. I had hoped for a March trip but aren't booking anything.....the Alps will still be there 21/22 but not looking good imv for 20/21.
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@Markymark29, My sentiments exactly. In the back of my mind there is an if... A but... And a maybe but realistically it isn't going to happen. If (see I said there was one) there are last minute holidays which are safe then maybe (see, there's another) we'll go.
BUT... I'm not sure.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
we are just about the only country relaxing things for the festive period vs Holland, Italy, Germany etc who are tightening via lockdowns,
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As far as I can see, they are still having limited loosening for a few days over Xmas?
The season as we know it won't happen - I'm still optimistic that there will be skiing mid-March through Easter. All being well large
numbers of vaccine will have been rolled out by then, plus you're coming out of cold/flu season (and hopefully Covid will start declining then as well)
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@Boris, That's what we're hoping for. Our Jan trip has gone west, might try to reschedule the accommodation to next year but not sure if we can get the flight moved. We have a late March trip booked so fingers crossed it'll happen.
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FAQ
