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So what happens if skiers contract CV19 on holiday?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The game is of course choosing the correct risk to mitigate against. If e.g. tour operators and airlines insist on testing before travel, then the risk of contagion is reduced/low during travel. Perhaps not quite as low as self-drive, but possibly negligibly low. I have the feeling that people anyway overjudge the risk of infection during flight on modern aircraft with massive air circulation and HEPA filters.

The risks of border closures, long-ish term confinement of residences or resorts, quarantine etc are much more difficult to mitigate against as an individual. It is possible that these circumstances might be better dealt with by a TO. In addition, I don't fancy being a foreigner abroad with no language skills, and having to deal with gendarmes, medical services etc alone...

YMMV!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
JamesHJ wrote:
... who ever leaves resort during a 1-2 week holiday? ...

A surprising number of people. Maybe not a large proportion of those who arrive for a week's holiday. But plenty of day/weekend skiers, and often a very high proportion of resort workers - who typically live in cheaper areas/towns nearby. More than enough to bring the virus into a resort from anywhere in around a 100 mile radius.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Dave of the Marmottes wrote:
we aren't seeing beach resorts being shut down yet in Europe, if that continues for the summer why beyond colder temps and less al fresco dining should that make ski resorts objectively that much more of a risk?

That goes the opposite direction of "reduce the chance of infection". So yes, "much more of a risk"!
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JamesHJ wrote:
The game is of course choosing the correct risk to mitigate against. If e.g. tour operators and airlines insist on testing before travel, then the risk of contagion is reduced/low during travel. Perhaps not quite as low as self-drive, but possibly negligibly low. I have the feeling that people anyway overjudge the risk of infection during flight on modern aircraft with massive air circulation and HEPA filters.

Fair point about people over judging the risk of infection DURING flight.

However, the transfer bus is likely under judged by many? You're just as close to your seatmate, yet without the HEPA filter planes have. And the bus transfer time may be longer than the flight time in some cases.
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pam w wrote:

This is a challenging situation for those who are chronic bookers-ahead and can't cope with uncertainty!

Shocked Sad

I can see that. Toofy Grin
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abc wrote:
Dave of the Marmottes wrote:
we aren't seeing beach resorts being shut down yet in Europe, if that continues for the summer why beyond colder temps and less al fresco dining should that make ski resorts objectively that much more of a risk?

That goes the opposite direction of "reduce the chance of infection". So yes, "much more of a risk"!


But the temperature thing is just a hypothesis and not really corrolating why you are having such an increase across the US south in summer (unless the answer is aircon) and why Euro infections really took hold in March- May rather than Dec-Feb. So your opinion is that it is much more of a risk but I'm not sure the science is in yet.
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abc wrote:
JamesHJ wrote:
The game is of course choosing the correct risk to mitigate against. If e.g. tour operators and airlines insist on testing before travel, then the risk of contagion is reduced/low during travel. Perhaps not quite as low as self-drive, but possibly negligibly low. I have the feeling that people anyway overjudge the risk of infection during flight on modern aircraft with massive air circulation and HEPA filters.

Fair point about people over judging the risk of infection DURING flight.

However, the transfer bus is likely under judged by many? You're just as close to your seatmate, yet without the HEPA filter planes have. And the bus transfer time may be longer than the flight time in some cases.


Hence why I think that only (obligatory) testing before travel can help. One can try to insist on PPE as well for e.g. bus rides and lifts, but this is likely to be poorly observed and perhaps of debatable effectiveness.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
ecureuil wrote:
JamesHJ wrote:
... who ever leaves resort during a 1-2 week holiday? ...

A surprising number of people. Maybe not a large proportion of those who arrive for a week's holiday. But plenty of day/weekend skiers, and often a very high proportion of resort workers - who typically live in cheaper areas/towns nearby. More than enough to bring the virus into a resort from anywhere in around a 100 mile radius.


True, but locals and workers are a different (epidemiological) kettle of fish to tourists. The resorts need to reduce uncertainty to operate, and they have a much better idea of the situation in the local country. As hinted at in accounts of the Austrian outbreaks, there is also the question of politics. The local population will expect tougher rules for tourists.
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Dave of the Marmottes wrote:
abc wrote:
Dave of the Marmottes wrote:
we aren't seeing beach resorts being shut down yet in Europe, if that continues for the summer why beyond colder temps and less al fresco dining should that make ski resorts objectively that much more of a risk?

That goes the opposite direction of "reduce the chance of infection". So yes, "much more of a risk"!


But the temperature thing is just a hypothesis and not really corrolating why you are having such an increase across the US south in summer (unless the answer is aircon) and why Euro infections really took hold in March- May rather than Dec-Feb. So your opinion is that it is much more of a risk but I'm not sure the science is in yet.

Air condition is the first thing that jump to mind. As the south did NOT have a big increase in March and April when aircon was not needed.

As for the Euro NOT having a big spread in Dec-Jan is probably because it's only "just started to spread" in Wuhan, not even rest of China/Asia. February? Many indication is it WAS spreading widely in the alpine tourist towns, just that without testing we didn't know it's already there. It took another month for the sick showing up in hospitals to confirm what's already happening.

The science is slow to come in. So far it continues to confirm rather than contradict many of those "best guess" by the epidemiologists on the behavior of the virus.
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As if by order, there is an article on the BBC about testing at airports. Food for thought. They claim £150/traveller costs.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53578102
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Boris wrote:

With a potential 5 drivers in the family, I would be tempted to make a dash for home.

And risk infecting the other 4 during the many hours in a poorly ventilated tiny space?

If it's my family, I'd rather be left behind while they drive home as quickly as they can manage.

Quote:
Interesting question - if there is to be any sort of a ski season then there would need to be quarantine hotels set-aside in resorts for those with mild symptoms.

It would surely be a huge confidence builder having such arrangements in place. But I remain skeptical that it would be set up. People are still rather wishful in their thinking when it comes to planning for next winter. There's so much talk of "getting back" to normal, rather than evolving to a (potentially better) "new normal".
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Hmm - human nature - £600 for a a family of 4 or "I'll just say I'm quarantining and not expect anyone to actually check on that"?
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
German airports reputedly starting free and compulsory testing for all next week. Why can't the UK?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I guarantee some utter goon has already signed an exclusive contract with a commercial provider at Heathrow!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:

And risk infecting the other 4 during the many hours in a poorly ventilated tiny space?

If it's my family, I'd rather be left behind while they drive home as quickly as they can manage.

If the family have been living, eating, chatting, laughing and sleeping together anyway, it'd scarcely make any difference. The cat would be out of the bag. Dress warmly, have windows open a lot. Most people who get Covid will have a mild disease or be asymptomatic. It's a risk we're all going to have to get used to living with, and mitigating in our own way. Nobody who is ultra-careful, or very vulnerable, would be going on a ski holiday (or any other kind of foreign holiday), would they?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
pam w wrote:
Quote:

And risk infecting the other 4 during the many hours in a poorly ventilated tiny space?

If it's my family, I'd rather be left behind while they drive home as quickly as they can manage.

If the family have been living, eating, chatting, laughing and sleeping together anyway, it'd scarcely make any difference. The cat would be out of the bag.

But many contact tracing cases revealed even a family living eating chatting together daily, not all members got the virus. (science has yet to provide definitive answer as to why)

Quote:
Nobody who is ultra-careful, or very vulnerable, would be going on a ski holiday (or any other kind of foreign holiday), would they?

Are you suggesting anyone who go on a holiday are risk takers? Doesn't appear to be the case, or they wouldn't be asking all these questions.
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JamesHJ wrote:
German airports reputedly starting free and compulsory testing for all next week. Why can't the UK?


Because British Business is second only to the Swiss in extracting money from punters
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
[quote="pam w"]
Quote:

Nobody who is ultra-careful, or very vulnerable, would be going on a ski holiday (or any other kind of foreign holiday), would they?



Maybe they would? The very elderly are very aware they don`t have much time left on this planet, at least one I know never wants to inconvenience any one else, but kinda wants to party out!
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@pam w, could get cold driving back from the Alps in winter with the windows open! wink
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There are some folk who (reasonably) say that their response to an outbreak/diagnosis in resort would be to high tail it to the UK. One interesting point is the potential legal ramification. I guess C19 is a declarable disease in FR and elsewhere. Surely you would be breaking local law by making a run for it? Would you get away with it nowadays?
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abc wrote:

Are you suggesting anyone who go on a holiday are risk takers? Doesn't appear to be the case, or they wouldn't be asking all these questions.


Everyone's a risk taker to a lesser or greater degree. Take exercise risk a heart attack or muscle sprain. Don't take exercise risk a heart attack or muscle wastage....

The ultimate COVID safe response is to cocoon in your bio-secure home bubble as much as possible, but we know that isn't good for mental health. But going to another country in a world in which border controls and national laws are going up and down like a tart's/gigolo's knickers is a risk exercise few of us have much prior experience in.
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johnE wrote:
Quote:

Hmm. So do a runner if you have it. I bet that is against government policy - and if travelling solo, it begs the question if one is fit to drive.

You have to drive to Barnard Castle to test if you are fit to drive. At which point it is not against UK government policy


Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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“ But I also think some of this is unduly pessimistic at the moment - we aren't seeing beach resorts being shut down yet in Europe, if that continues for the summer why beyond colder temps and less al fresco dining should that make ski resorts objectively that much more of a risk?”

As I understand it, it hits the respiratory system hard and winter/cold conditions effect peoples breathing more. It’s the same thing with seasonal flu, gets worse in winter.
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Bergmeister wrote:
johnE wrote:
Quote:

Hmm. So do a runner if you have it. I bet that is against government policy - and if travelling solo, it begs the question if one is fit to drive.

You have to drive to Barnard Castle to test if you are fit to drive. At which point it is not against UK government policy


Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


That's OK then. I'll be nearly home by then Laughing Laughing
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harrim51 wrote:


As I understand it, it hits the respiratory system hard and winter/cold conditions effect peoples breathing more. It’s the same thing with seasonal flu, gets worse in winter.


That would explain symptom severity but not transmission risk. We know its not like a typical seasonal virus because it hasn't disappeared in summer (maybe not a good characterisation because maybe even a virus that goes "dormant" needs some hosts to carry it around). Maybe it's because we are specifically tracking it more. I could see plausibly there might be some physics on droplets hanging around longer in colder air or maybe what we think we know about cold and flu being seasonal is really only symptoms being reduced to point of irrelevancy in summer?
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Dave of the Marmottes wrote:
harrim51 wrote:


As I understand it, it hits the respiratory system hard and winter/cold conditions effect peoples breathing more. It’s the same thing with seasonal flu, gets worse in winter.


That would explain symptom severity but not transmission risk. We know its not like a typical seasonal virus because it hasn't disappeared in summer (maybe not a good characterisation because maybe even a virus that goes "dormant" needs some hosts to carry it around). Maybe it's because we are specifically tracking it more. I could see plausibly there might be some physics on droplets hanging around longer in colder air or maybe what we think we know about cold and flu being seasonal is really only symptoms being reduced to point of irrelevancy in summer?

My understanding (which may be wrong) is that in colder weather people are more likely to spend time in poorly ventilated indoor spaces.
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I'll let you all know the policy that I'm following as doctor.

When restrictions are increasing, I'm trying to be a week or two ahead of the government, because they're slow to react because it goes against their ideology.

When restrictions are decreasing, I'm trying to be a week or two behind the government, because they're over eager to see good news because of confirmation bias and their ideology.

What we see with Coronavirus, that we don't see with other respiratory viruses, is these superspreader events, when one person can infect ~50 other people at one event. The common factor for these events are that they're crowded, closed spaces with close contact. Summer beach resorts aren't in closed spaces. Winter ski resorts tend to be, unless you're Scandinavian, hardy as Be Nice please!, and prepared to drink your apres beer through the ice that forms on top of it.

I also firmly believe that you really cannot trust the authorities in the mountain resorts to be transparent about the risks. Their survival depends on tourism, and they have every incentive to play down an outbreak. Due to exponential growth and the lag time in cases becoming apparent, by the time that it becomes obvious that there is a problem, it's already out of control.
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I suspect that catching it at altitude could make the symptoms worse.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Kramer, good to have your view as a doctor. Maybe the authorities are a little flexible with the truth, same as snow depths reported used to be a bit iffy before we could have a look on webcams.
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Pamski wrote:
@Kramer, good to have your view as a doctor. Maybe the authorities are a little flexible with the truth, same as snow depths reported used to be a bit iffy before we could have a look on webcams.


Everything goes through the Mayor. Their incentive is to keep their local electorate happy, which means not putting off the tourists. I'm not saying it's corrupt, just that the benefit of the doubt is always going to err on the side of under/not reporting something. By the time it gets to irrefutable evidence (hospitalizations and deaths) already many people will have been infected. As we saw at half term this year.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Kramer wrote:
I'll let you all know the policy that I'm following as doctor.

When restrictions are increasing, I'm trying to be a week or two ahead of the government, because they're slow to react because it goes against their ideology.

When restrictions are decreasing, I'm trying to be a week or two behind the government, because they're over eager to see good news because of confirmation bias and their ideology.

What we see with Coronavirus, that we don't see with other respiratory viruses, is these superspreader events, when one person can infect ~50 other people at one event. The common factor for these events are that they're crowded, closed spaces with close contact. Summer beach resorts aren't in closed spaces. Winter ski resorts tend to be, unless you're Scandinavian, hardy as , and prepared to drink your apres beer through the ice that forms on top of it.

I also firmly believe that you really cannot trust the authorities in the mountain resorts to be transparent about the risks. Their survival depends on tourism, and they have every incentive to play down an outbreak. Due to exponential growth and the lag time in cases becoming apparent, by the time that it becomes obvious that there is a problem, it's already out of control.


Just to be clear, the situation may well have changed very much by the time we get to winter. But medically speaking, making any firm plans at the moment, would be foolish.
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@Kramer, nice to see you back - and thanks for your input.
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JamesHJ wrote:
There are some folk who (reasonably) say that their response to an outbreak/diagnosis in resort would be to high tail it to the UK. One interesting point is the potential legal ramification. I guess C19 is a declarable disease in FR and elsewhere. Surely you would be breaking local law by making a run for it? Would you get away with it nowadays?


No idea about what a declarable disease means but it would be impossible to prove anything - you can catch it from anywhere at any time
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Themasterpiece wrote:
JamesHJ wrote:
There are some folk who (reasonably) say that their response to an outbreak/diagnosis in resort would be to high tail it to the UK. One interesting point is the potential legal ramification. I guess C19 is a declarable disease in FR and elsewhere. Surely you would be breaking local law by making a run for it? Would you get away with it nowadays?


No idea about what a declarable disease means but it would be impossible to prove anything - you can catch it from anywhere at any time


Most countries have a list of diseases which need to be reported upon diagnosis, the French one is here (I guess they didn't add C19 to the list yet):

https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-a-declaration-obligatoire/liste-des-maladies-a-declaration-obligatoire

This prevents e.g. individuals, doctors, local authorities from hiding potential clusters. Something similar (notifiable diseases) is also law in the UK for humans and livestock. Just going out on a limb here, but I reckon all hell would break loose with the Gendarmes if people are found to be fleeing ski resorts with a positive diagnosis or reasonable suspicion of one.
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Note that the French already ask for a "déclaration sur l’honneur" that you don't have symptoms before flying. I speculate that similar declarations will be required for ski holidays/resorts.

http://leparticulier.lefigaro.fr/article/declaration-sur-l-honneur-et-masque-obligatoires-pour-prendre-l-avion/

I've always wondered what happens in France if you break your word on one of these things. They seem to ask for them for all sorts of stuff. As alluded to above, I speculate that the response would be pretty aggressive.

Edit: Can be charged as a fraud, with up to 5 years in prison and e375,000 fine Shocked
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Themasterpiece wrote:
JamesHJ wrote:
There are some folk who (reasonably) say that their response to an outbreak/diagnosis in resort would be to high tail it to the UK. One interesting point is the potential legal ramification. I guess C19 is a declarable disease in FR and elsewhere. Surely you would be breaking local law by making a run for it? Would you get away with it nowadays?


No idea about what a declarable disease means but it would be impossible to prove anything - you can catch it from anywhere at any time

Doesn't the virus mutate very slowly, almost with each transmission? So if epidemiologists really want to, and if they have enough samples, they can identify almost exactly the chain of transmission from person to person?
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One survey¹ of UK skiers age groupings returned that around 18% were 60+ and 30% were 50-59. So extrapolating, for one in 5 British skiers, contracting Covid19 is potentially fatal. And for close to three in 5, it would be serious and with potentially deleterious, long-term effects.

So the primary concern for 4 out of 5 UK skiers would (should?) be death/illness, rather than logistics or insurance cover. For them it's not a matter of how quickly they can escape being noticed; how soon to spoil everyone's holiday and put their immediate group into self-isolation; whether they can get back home before becoming fully incapacitated etc. For the 1 in 5 it's acting ASAP to avoid dying. And for the 3 in 5 it's, well, also acting quickly to get through a nasty illness with minimal long-term health effects.

What I'm saying is that for the majority of British skiers, once they think they've got Covid19, their thought is not going to be how to get around local regulations and get home, but how rapidly they can get the best treatment then and there.

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/527230/age-snowsport-vacationers-united-kingdom-uk/
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JamesHJ wrote:
Note that the French already ask for a "déclaration sur l’honneur" that you don't have symptoms before flying. I speculate that similar declarations will be required for ski holidays/resorts.

http://leparticulier.lefigaro.fr/article/declaration-sur-l-honneur-et-masque-obligatoires-pour-prendre-l-avion/

I've always wondered what happens in France if you break your word on one of these things. They seem to ask for them for all sorts of stuff. As alluded to above, I speculate that the response would be pretty aggressive.

Edit: Can be charged as a fraud, with up to 5 years in prison and e375,000 fine Shocked


Had to fill out some form at Amsterdam before boarding the flight to Italy, and again on departure today. I should contact them if I get symptoms within 8 days or something. But ultimately it’s all honesty based.
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Kramer wrote:


What we see with Coronavirus, that we don't see with other respiratory viruses, is these superspreader events, when one person can infect ~50 other people at one event. The common factor for these events are that they're crowded, closed spaces with close contact.

Just to be clear, the situation may well have changed very much by the time we get to winter. But medically speaking, making any firm plans at the moment, would be foolish.


Interesting to have your view - so the full social bash is potentially out regardless but what about the strictly small number trip? Too many risks with enclosed spaces like in particular gondolas?

I'm trying to get my head round whether there is a mitigated way of doing thing with self drive. Try to avoid bubbles. Eat only on outside decks. Small pensions to stay in. Evening meal probably most problematic aspect.
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@Dave of the Marmottes, Pick your dates/times carefully. I was on the train at Axamer Lizum earlier today. Had to wear masks, but it was pointless as there were only about 7 passengers in the whole train, and all in separate sectors. Thinking about it, that's not so unusual in winter either – I often get a bubble to myself/with buddy.

LaForet wrote:
So the primary concern for 4 out of 5 UK skiers would (should?) be death/illness, rather than logistics or insurance cover. For them it's not a matter of how quickly they can escape being noticed; how soon to spoil everyone's holiday and put their immediate group into self-isolation; whether they can get back home before becoming fully incapacitated etc. For the 1 in 5 it's acting ASAP to avoid dying. And for the 3 in 5 it's, well, also acting quickly to get through a nasty illness with minimal long-term health effects.

I think your numbers may be a little pessimistic there. No demographic has a 20% fatality rate Shocked
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