 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I haven’t been following it all meticulously but isn’t that what countries in East Asia did? Tested everyone then isolated the ones that had it until they had passed the period of being contagious?
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pretty much, but you can't just "isolate" slavic people like you can asians  they do not follow orders the same way
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@VolklAttivaS5, this issue seems to be, much like Boris' "Project Moonshot", is that the quick tests are not particularly reliable, especially when administered by those with little or no medical training. Not a big issue if you are doing twenty tests, but when you are doing millions, as is proposed in Austria, there will be significant numbers of both false positives and negatives. This makes the whole approach of somewhat questionable value, maybe it is helpful but equally possible it is a waste of valuable resources. The theory sounds good but implementing it properly on such a large scale in a very short time is quite possibly not practical.
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@munich_irish, There are still no details at all about who will be the target group/s or how it will be implemented. However, medical advisors seem to be more concerned about false positives than false negatives, which surprised me as in the UK it was the reverse.
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| Scarlet wrote: |
| @munich_irish, There are still no details at all about who will be the target group/s or how it will be implemented. However, medical advisors seem to be more concerned about false positives than false negatives, which surprised me as in the UK it was the reverse. |
The problem is all about false positives than negatives and if the UK havn't been focusing on it then it shows what fools we have calling the shots. I think we've run the maths before - you don't want to lock up false positives but re-test to ensure they remain positive and also repeated testing will flush out the true positives (unless the test is only picking up a limited number of elements which not all positives have)
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@Dave of the Marmottes, Yep, repeat testing is key, I think, but as I said no details yet as to what the procedure will be here.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| munich_irish wrote: |
| @VolklAttivaS5, this issue seems to be, much like Boris' "Project Moonshot", is that the quick tests are not particularly reliable, especially when administered by those with little or no medical training. Not a big issue if you are doing twenty tests, but when you are doing millions, as is proposed in Austria, there will be significant numbers of both false positives and negatives. This makes the whole approach of somewhat questionable value, maybe it is helpful but equally possible it is a waste of valuable resources. The theory sounds good but implementing it properly on such a large scale in a very short time is quite possibly not practical. |
I see what you mean
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| blind_raven wrote: |
| Quote: |
Last semi-official word I had on that (a couple of weeks ago) is that resorts are continuing with plans and preparations (snow making is not on the agenda currently given the weather, but for example helicoptering cannons into place and so on) for mid December. Re. rumours and public sentiment, most people seem to think they can't not open resorts for Christmas/NYE - Austria is a much smaller country than France and the economy is too dependent on winter tourism - but also wouldn't be surprised if there is then another lockdown in January before the more important holiday dates in Feb.
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I'm curious about this one: it looks like Arlberg and Ischgl have made it plenty clear that nothing will happen before the 17th. Initially I expected that more resorts would indicate the same, but it looks it's only those two (fair, I don't follow ALL of them but the majority of the known ones). Wouldn't it be safer for everyone (both from health and money perspective) to make it clear that it's gonna start later, or are they playing it a bit by ear? |
Solden is declaring 3rd December at the moment but we'll see if that actually happens...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Thought Austria was lockdown until 6th.... how can they declare for before that date?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Saalbach Ski Circus opening 7 December and they have extended the deadline for buying the discounted season ski pass, Solden probably haven't got round to updating their website , maybe they are waiting to see what happens closer to the end of lockdown.
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@radar, I suspect they are being a touch on the optimistic side. Even ignoring the obvious, besides a dusting on Friday the forecast is for mild dry weather until the end of the month. The weather and conditions underfoot are more likely to be suitable for walking up mountains rather than sliding down them. We need a more winterlike turn in the weather before there could be any significant amount of skiing possible whatever else is going on in the world.
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You know it makes sense.
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| munich_irish wrote: |
| @radar, I suspect they are being a touch on the optimistic side. Even ignoring the obvious, besides a dusting on Friday the forecast is for mild dry weather until the end of the month. The weather and conditions underfoot are more likely to be suitable for walking up mountains rather than sliding down them. We need a more winterlike turn in the weather before there could be any significant amount of skiing possible whatever else is going on in the world. |
Yep, absolutely GLORIOUS hiking and biking weather atm, and perfectly happy for that to continue for another couple of weeks tbh!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Yes, no point to snow at the moment if we cannot use it! Forecast here says a little snow on Friday, plus it is cold enough to run the cannons in the evenings/early mornings, so things could be up and running in a matter of days when there's a clear announcement about ending the lockdown.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| NickyJ wrote: |
| Thought Austria was lockdown until 6th.... how can they declare for before that date? |
My mistake - it's declaring a vague 'December' for opening, and the date where restrictions came in was NOVEMBER 3rd. Confusion reigns!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Useful charts in this german link, most regions in Austria look to have a decreasing number of infections but Salzburg and especially Kärnten don't look to have peaked. Over 100 COVID deaths reported today in Austria for the first time since COVID began but also the most number of recovered COVID patients reported too.
https://orf.at/stories/3190311/
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@DB, nice data, thanks. Interesting to see how all the states except Kärnten and Salzburg follow very similar infection curves (as was Salzburg up to last week), but Kärnten is off on its own line, having had comparatively few cases earlier in the year. I wonder what the difference is there? Also interesting that they’ve marked where the regs changed, so you can see how much difference wearing masks in bars and then shutting them early made 
Hopefully the downward trend will continue. Innsbruck Stadt has dropped off significantly in the last few days, which is good to see.
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| Scarlet wrote: |
| @DB, nice data, thanks. Interesting to see how all the states except Kärnten and Salzburg follow very similar infection curves (as was Salzburg up to last week), but Kärnten is off on its own line, having had comparatively few cases earlier in the year. I wonder what the difference is there? |
Suspect it's tourism, both to and from Austria. The first wave happened in winter so the likes of Ischgl etc were hit hard. Although COVID in Austria was really only confirmed in early March 2020, reports of much earlier cases dating back to the turn of the year were susequently reported. For the first wave it appeared to take around 12 to 14 weeks or so from the very first cases (Dez 19/ Jan 20) to the peak at the very start of April.
https://orf.at/corona/daten/oesterreich
Salzburg has much more summer tourism than say Tirol or the Arlberg, plus a lot more visitors pass through (e.g. Germans travelling to Italy and stopping by in Salzburg on the way).
Kärnten borders the Balkans and I suspect people from Vienna went down to places such as Croatia to at least get some sort of a beach holiday. At the same time so did many other residents from other Balkan countries (e.g. Serbia) so there was a lot of international mixing going on. If this stopped in early to mid Sept then Kärnten & Salzburg should peak between end of Nov and Christmas. Hope I'm wrong and it occurs sooner.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I suspect you are overthinking this. Covid like many other viruses has a significant seasonal variation (not all are "winter" viruses, polio was a "summer" virus), almost certainly no coincidence that the amount of virus declined in the spring and has increased come the autumn. If you look around Europe most countries are seeing a very similar pattern of rapidly rising numbers a few weeks ago with numbers now declining. All the various restrictions do have an effect but very difficult to define exactly what, places with very different approaches have similar outcomes. No doubt travelling helps spread the virus but the connections may not be as obvious as we think. One of the conclusions from the Ischgl inquiry was that the strain of virus there was the same one that the British people in the Savoie had after visiting Singapore rather than the common assumption that it was from Italy. Most UK cases in the spring seem to have been connected to Spain.
There was a report earlier that the virus was circulating in Italy as far back as last September https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing/coronavirus-emerged-in-italy-earlier-than-thought-italian-study-shows-idUSKBN27V0KF which if correct means that the virus can hang around in the background and for reasons that are not clear increase dramatically.
Hopefully we can go back to discussing skiing rather than virology in the not too distant future 
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Yes maybe I am overthinking it but it is strange how different regions in Austria have developed differently. Before the first wave there was a lot more international travel esp. plane travel. Between the first and second wave this was reduced which should in theory reduce the chance of long distance infection (e.g. Singapore to Austria)
The light lockdown at the start of Nov only seems to have affected the Vienna curve (Red). One explanation could also be that it's much easier to control a lockdown with the police in a large city than in the rural regions. Kärten started off very low and then exploded (green)
... but yes let's hope the figures move in the right direction soon and we can start talking skiing again.
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@DB, maybe there is not a direct cause & effect between the various actions taken and the amount of virus? No one really knows, though it is clear the virus spreads in busy enclosed areas like the Kitzloch in Ischgl or parties in Vienna. Why has the north German Länder Mecklenburg - Vorpommern have had a very low level of virus from the start but Bavaria especially Oberbayern (next to Austria) has had high levels? Various theories put forward (perhaps die Preussen have acquired some sort of natural immunity after spending their formative years in the DDR but the pampered rich catholic peasants in the south were never exposed to the same hardships  ) but again no one really knows.
Hopefully the levels of virus will decline whether naturally or with the vaccine to allow us to get back skiing.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
maybe there is not a direct cause & effect between the various actions taken and the amount of virus?
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There is. But measures do take time, and Austria acted a bit late. That and the reports still ignoring mask use will not help.
A fatigued population is very likely a direct cause of why measures aren't working that well
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One thing is for sure, the effect/spread is not immediate it takes weeks.
Now I'm really overthinking this - wondering if the reverse effect is true i.e. people suspected there would be another lockdown coming and started getting out visiting family & friends. It looks like maybe Salzburg & Tirol started to rise then there was talk of a lockdown then the other areas followed suit.
There were crazy scenes at the weekend when a well known footwear chain offered it's products at a 50% discount, the police were called out in the end. It was hard to workout who was more stupid, the footwear chain or the customers.
Must admit I too did think about going down to the DIY place at the weekend and buying decorating materials but a friend said don't go out it's chaos out there in all the shops.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@DB, yes I do think you get sudden spikes in activity/socialising when people know a lockdown is coming
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Booked for st anton in Jan. would pay for a test if needed before travelling and can isolate after. Is this looking likely?
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@mk28, no-one knows what is realistic before Christmas never mind January. cancel or sit tight and wait and see
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@mk28, If you want ridiculously long lift ques, no après, inflated flight prices, heaps of Covid hassle and assume that you are not made to isolate in St Anton…then yes you may get to ski but St Anton will not be anything like you have known it before!
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Poster: A snowHead
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@mk28, In short.....no (well not imv anyway).
2021 will be the first time in 20 years we've not been to Arlberg in January, we've actually got 2 weeks booked mid/ end January and I'm 99% sure we'll not be going. Sad that it is there's too many risks, and obstacles (rising by the day imv, not least that if our stupid government decide to let the country go crazy for 5 days over Christmas as appears to be increasingly likely we'll be back in lockdown January and February and travel will be off the table in any event).
There'd be huge queues at lift stations, CV risks in gondolas, lunch stops chaos (book only) and all the nonsense that's likely imminent via Brexit and no EHIC etc.......I can't think that it'll be happening, and then again only if you can run the risk of a quarantine at both ends.
We've also got a week in March, that'd be great but again not getting excited......sadly.
PS: I'm fed up of hearing about Christmas already, as if it'd be a disaster if it has to happen without big family gatherings.....personally I'll live with it, it's just another day after all. It's been a lousy year we may as well see it out and move into 2021 in decent shape economically and health wise imv.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Markymark29, totally agree re Christmas
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| mk28 wrote: |
| Booked for st anton in Jan. would pay for a test if needed before travelling and can isolate after. Is this looking likely? |
Germans & Dutch have been told not to travel on Holidays to .Austria or Anywhere until at least Mid Jan/Feb
Only Essential Travel is the advice by nearly every Country in the World
Wintersports are NOT Essential
The Ski Season may is seriously in danger of being cancelled for Foreigners.
Get over here for Specific St Anton
https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=152232&start=200
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The figures for all regions look to be going in the right direction now …. (both Kärnten and Salzburg saw a slight drop in the 7 day infection rate)
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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And the snow cannons are running! 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Freeski World Cup competition in Stubai at the moment
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| DB wrote: |
One thing is for sure, the effect/spread is not immediate it takes weeks.
Now I'm really overthinking this - wondering if the reverse effect is true i.e. people suspected there would be another lockdown coming and started getting out visiting family & friends. It looks like maybe Salzburg & Tirol started to rise then there was talk of a lockdown then the other areas followed suit.
There were crazy scenes at the weekend when a well known footwear chain offered it's products at a 50% discount, the police were called out in the end. It was hard to workout who was more stupid, the footwear chain or the customers.
Must admit I too did think about going down to the DIY place at the weekend and buying decorating materials but a friend said don't go out it's chaos out there in all the shops. |
Yes this is happened in London towards t to he end of summer and the last couple of weeks pre lockdown v2. It’s not very helpful but probably normal human nature. Last hurrah and all that.
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| stanton wrote: |
| mk28 wrote: |
| Booked for st anton in Jan. would pay for a test if needed before travelling and can isolate after. Is this looking likely? |
Germans & Dutch have been told not to travel on Holidays to .Austria or Anywhere until at least Mid Jan/Feb
Only Essential Travel is the advice by nearly every Country in the World
Wintersports are NOT Essential
The Ski Season may is seriously in danger of being cancelled for Foreigners.
Get over here for Specific St Anton
https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=152232&start=200 |
well, Germans are not told not to travel until Jan oder Feb
that is only for the Dutch
In Germany are all the travels (in high risk areas and also in GER) not allowed until 30 Nov.
Probably we will have to go further in Dez with all these thins and prohibitions but officially is only until 30 Nov.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Just received this from Snowbombing:
We’d like to give you an update on Snowbombing 2021 and the impact of the ongoing global pandemic on our big plans for next year's festival.
It’s fair to say that it’s been an extraordinarily challenging year for everyone. As we know, SB21 is now 5 months away and, with recent news of successful vaccines and rapid testing, our hopes remain positive that we will be able to deliver Snowbombing in some capacity in April. We are in close contact with the Mayrhofen Tourist Board, who will continue to provide us with updates on the latest developments in the resort. For the moment, the Tourist Board has advised us to wait until January before making any decisions, so they can assess how the first month of the ski season goes.
Given the current situation, and uncertainties around when international travel and mass gatherings will be able to return, we feel it would be irresponsible to release the lineup at this moment, whilst there is a chance we may not be able to deliver it.
We'd really appreciate all existing bookers to hold onto your bookings until we have greater clarity on what is possible, and therefore, we won't be asking you to pay anything further towards your balance until 31st January 2021, when we've provided an update.
We are still busy taking bookings and it's clear that many of you are keen to make it to Snowbombing 2021. We do not know if the festival will be delivered to the same scale as previous years, and in all likelihood, it will be a smaller and more intimate event, focused around outdoor locations and making the very most of the stunning Mayrhofen mountains and glorious springtime sunshine. More than ever, we will tap into the location, the community and the spirit that makes Snowbombing so unique and special.
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Really find it low probability there will be any festivals this coming winter.
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