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The All New 20/21 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Return of winter in sight! Put away the touring gear and dust off the powder skis snowHead


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Sun 28-02-21 19:09; edited 1 time in total
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
BobinCH wrote:
....Return of winter in sight! Put away the touring gear and dust of the powder skis snowHead


Good spot and a similar diagram for our part of the world, except we'll still be on touring gear either way Laughing

Anyway long way off so fingers massively crossed.

And this morning spoke to my guide mate and he's had enough and has left La Grave heading to the Atlantic ocean for some surfing with the family.

And March can certainly deliver I was going back through some blogs and 2016 was a cracker!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Weathercam wrote:
BobinCH wrote:
....Return of winter in sight! Put away the touring gear and dust of the powder skis snowHead


Good spot and a similar diagram for our part of the world, except we'll still be on touring gear either way Laughing

Anyway long way off so fingers massively crossed.

And this morning spoke to my guide mate and he's had enough and has left La Grave heading to the Atlantic ocean for some surfing with the family.

And March can certainly deliver I was going back through some blogs and 2016 was a cracker!


Do you think I got ahead of myself buying the missus new powder skis based on a 2 week forecast?
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A bit more clarity on the direction of travel, cold air arrives from the NE on Friday with high pressure over UK - Iceland. But these residual heights get swept away by the change to atlantic flow, so the models are converging nicely.

Big picture mean anomalies at day 9 show atlantic blocking and low's over Uk / Scandi


By mid next week, the 00z runs are in line with mean NW flow, switching to W deeper into the second week

Mildest solution is GFS 00z, but the ensemble mean FL is closer to 1500-1600m in the NW alps from 5th onwards



GEM middle ground



ECM bettter



And GFS (P) looks heavy



There will be bumps along the way of course, I'd expect snow - rain - snow issues below 1500m as things stand
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Snowy weekend coming up in the alps, pretty stormy atlantic lows hitting western regions from wednesday on

ECM total precip to next sunday (orange = 50-60mm)


GFS 06z could see 50+cm in many places


In the NW alps the mean FL spikes up to 2000m on thursday, so a lot rain low down to start with, then it drops to 1200-1600m from fri-tues.

Signs of high pressure returning mid month

Update - 12z are mixed bag, some models keep the flow more W than NW, so there's a risk of quite a high snowline still
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About 5-10cm fell to 1400m last night in the NW, trees are nice and white again.

Weekend looks like 40cm in many places, especially above 1800m, but overall the FL is still forecast to be in line with what the mean levels indicated a week ago, ie Fri-Sun the range is 1200-1600m.

Some stark differences in the models for next Mon-Tues though. ECM and UKMO are leaning towards northerly flow, especially over the eastern half, but pretty widespread.
High is building over France / east Atlantic from mid-month, so it's a fine line at the moment whether the snow will continue in the west into next week.

GFS shows the high pressure moving in quickly on Sunday, with a milder and drier flow



ECM and UKMO keep the budding high further west, allowing a heavy and cold northerly flow mon-tues
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
GFS backtracking west, more snow for everyone

06z out to Wednesday



And here are the day 10 Op's....I'll have the ECM please









While I'm at it, the AO index has undergone a remarkable rebalance from -6 to +6, peaking thursday and then another sharp drop as high pressure amplifies near Greenland

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
polo wrote:
GFS backtracking west, more snow for everyone

06z out to Wednesday



And here are the day 10 Op's....I'll have the ECM please









While I'm at it, the AO index has undergone a remarkable rebalance from -6 to +6, peaking thursday and then another sharp drop as high pressure amplifies near Greenland



Nice! Do you have a link to that first chart with the 7 day snowfall estimate?
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Just change the "192" in the link below for the number of hours (days) you want, eg 10 days would be "240".
Also change the run number to the latest, eg "06" "12" "00"

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC_05Grad/192_24.gif

Comes with massive caveats.....it's the GFS Op (same as snowforecast.com), it's only one run and will change every 6 hours, sometimes dramatically Very Happy
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polo wrote:
Just change the "192" in the link below for the number of hours (days) you want, eg 10 days would be "240".
Also change the run number to the latest, eg "06" "12" "00"

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC_05Grad/192_24.gif

Comes with massive caveats.....it's the GFS Op (same as snowforecast.com), it's only one run and will change every 6 hours, sometimes dramatically Very Happy


Thanks!

What time CET are the 06, 12, 00 runs released?
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Is it cool to know this stuff? Central European time

06z 1030
12z 1630
18z 2230
00z 0430

That's the start of the release, you have to wait another 1h30 for the full Op run to update. And then another 1hr30 for all the ensembles. Apparently.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@polo, still not brilliant for down Sarf though Confused
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Weathercam wrote:
@polo, still not brilliant for down Sarf though Confused


75cm!!! Beggars can’t be choosers...
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I take it lots of the weather sites use the OVH cloud that went up in flames , I can’t access Meteociel.fr , Cham meteo didn’t issue a forecast till very late on yesterday and it’s rather quiet on here .
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Rob Mackley, yep they are saying 15th March earliest to get some data back....oddly enough the GFS Para link is still running

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=6&runpara=1

And many other sites are working such as YR.NO, snow-forecast, wetter3.de and so on

NOAA 6-14 day and the ECM / GFS 8-10 day means all point to cold NE flow back under the high cell near Uk / Iceland.....similar to ECM Op posted above.
So lots of cold snow sun-wednesday, then getting properly cold and drier in the NW thurs-friday....with added sunshine Cool

Too far out for an Op run, but 06z suggesting -12c at 1500m sunday week



Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Thu 11-03-21 13:45; edited 1 time in total
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@polo, Very Happy Very Happy
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Rob Mackley, quite amazing how MeteoCiel didn't even have an explanation up for a couple of days.

I feel quite lost without them as although I look at others they were my benchmark as it were.

As for Sat week, 20th, that is currently looking bonkers, I can't quite believe it, as my OH hopefully flies into Nice this coming Saturday, and will isolate for a week, what a pressie for her having not skied all season Toofy Grin

When we completed on our apartment back in March 2013 around a similar date it dumped for two days!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Weathercam, yes I’m a bit obsessed with the GFS precipitation map checking three times a day , I actually only realised about the fire when my local weather ‘Essex Weather Centre’ issued an apology this morning . And yes Winter still has a bite left in it .
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The kachelmann is great, you also get accumulated precipitation for the ECMWF model, often much better than GFS:

https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/schweiz/akkumulierter-niederschlag/20210321-1200z.html
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I havent had time to read the detail here and the conclusions are hardly surprising ie shorter snow seasons and less snow in most places but it does have a lot of detail. The medium term prognosis for many Italian ski resorts is not good.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1343/2021/
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See Meteociel is back.

We've had a strong cold NW'ly wind blowing for well over a week, and hopefully the final day of it today, at least it's kept the snow cold though yesterday we hiked up on S facing side to find Spring snow and failed.

Down our way it really has been quite a bad season for snow, not only limited accumulations, there was the early season high avalanche risk, then the Saharan sand which wreaked havoc to the snow-pack, and now the wind, along with so many more people touring, so we've had to work hard to earn our turns, though we are very fussy Laughing
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Little top up at the weekend and then a powder tastic April???
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Looks more like damp squib fastic to me Eh oh!
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zzz wrote:
Looks more like damp squib fastic to me Eh oh!


Will be damp in Morzine. Not here. April powder guaranteed wink
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Woah looks those projected temps for Easter!
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Well we were supposed to be out in Tignes this coming weekend. Looking at the ensembles I am a little relieved we aren't going to be there......nah....still wish I was going
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
We were due to be in Tignes this week. Classic week of sunny spring skiing missed, after the last couple of years of cold windy Easter weeks... Eh oh!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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It's going to be a shock to the system....been enjoying the 20c+ weather with hardly a ripple on Lac Leman all week. I've been busy gardening and plan to become more of a farmer, tripling the surface area to grow food, so in one way I hope next week isn't too severe. Hope that freeze level doesn't drop too far below 1000m.
GFS Op and control have been so consistent with this forecast....very impressive from the new para version rolled out. All other models are slowly aligning with the northerly scenario.....here's UKMO for next tuesday (ECM similar)



And GFS continues the theme into friday, with potential for the heaviest snowfall switching to the southern alps....but it's too far to say where the sweet spots will be



GFS 12z freeze levels paint an interesting picture (NW).....the mean is about 850m, with just a handful of members pointing much higher. Most ensemble members are at or below the mean, so there is potential for snow down to 400-500m (not my preferred scenario).



Overall a fairly slack flow so wouldn't expect huge numbers....enough to ride powder across most of the alps...Slovenia / Croatia area looking best on the latest lotto spin

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
GFS 00z to next Saturday.....

Increases for Tyrol, Scotland, Switzerland, Northern French alps...with maybe only the Southern French alps missing out on a decent dump.
Northern Italian alps also to do well.



Temps dropping 15-20 degrees from Sat - Wed, roughly +10 to -10c at 1500m.
NW snowline to bounce between 0m and 700m...but there is no terrain below 400m anyway, so there will be snow on the beaches.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Could be the last cold dump of the 20/21 season. Let’s hope it’s a good fill up....
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Cheeky 20cm. Happy days
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
polo wrote:
.....with maybe only the Southern French alps missing out on a decent dump.....


@polo, BobinCH well we too are back on for some as of this morning, but that has so often been the scenario these past couple of months, two days to go and it will fizzle out.

I'm not too sure I can be arsed to climb to get to 5cm of fresh over a questionable base?

But should this deliver, I'd even sell my Granny to get half of it Laughing

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
^am thinking the same, not worth ripping the base on frozen crud, need another 5-10cm tonight to be tempted.

Imagine it’s deep enough further east.

As for 10-13th, not as clean a set up, looks wetter and milder, maybe useful above 2000m, but a long shot looking at current charts.
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Not too shabby the dust on crust snowHead

http://youtube.com/v/nDTzFF8Q3Xs
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@BobinCH, whatever.... Toofy Grin you must have caught the edge of the heavy falls, nothing like that 50km west.

Amazing change in the weather out the window just now. Went from clear skies and sunset to cloud and snowing in about 15mins.

Edit didn’t last long
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South and West in focus for next week....good agreement now across UKMO, ECM, GFS for Tuesday 13th for some shape of Genoa-Geneva low



France and Swiss hold best hope for the low in a sea of high pressure




Keeping those winter tyres on a little longer.

While French farmers light candles across vineyards to stop any frost

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Cold blower pow in mid-April snowHead

http://youtube.com/v/HVGzUzcQlUU
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@polo, @BobinCH, think it's only us that are still interested Laughing

But just maybe we might finally end the drought and somewhat ironic for those in France now !
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@Weathercam, not out there but still very interested . Just as obsessed with the snowfall in the western alps as I am at home . Whilst unable to participate myself I’m still happy to watch yourselves enjoying . I find it quite funny that my sister in law living in Lausanne asks me what the weather is going to be for their weekend trips skiing .
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This must be the shortest ever annual weather thread Crying or Very sad rolling eyes
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