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The All New 20/21 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Toadman wrote:
Yikes!!! Er, I mean, OH BOY!!! Toofy Grin

This bad boy is on his way to the West Coast. Open up the hatches and let it snow!!!



Nice!

Forecast has changed for the better here too snowHead
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Toadman wrote:
Open up the hatches
Very Happy

Lot's of snow for the northern alps coming, but temps rise as this one comes in, so the mean FL is creeping up to 1500-1600m now in the NW next Thurs, latest Op run has it at almost 1800m briefly.
There's only been one wet day below 1800m so far this season, with 20+ snowy days, and this next one looks short lived.......snow - rain - snow for the valleys.

Avoriaz


Verbier - Zermatt - Arlberg hotspots?


Can see the first SSW around Jan 6th, impact expected mid Jan, and now a second deeper SSW developing on the 15th.....mean strat winds staying easterly (below zero) almost to the end of the run.....leading to prolonged -AO state (already at a whopping -4 index)


ECM mean for next wed, long awaited northerly


and a reload 19-20th, leaning NE
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Snow in Spain
https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/09/spain-sees-worst-snowfall-in-50-years-as-skiers-hit-madrid-streets-13878166/
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This goes out to the 18th Jan, slight shift west in the epic-centre on GFS 06z


Further out, more epicness
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Big snow in Texas.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/snow-slams-the-south-texas-city-sees-biggest-snowstorm-in-39-years/ar-BB1cEzHI?ocid=uxbndlbing

Big pineapple scented river coming to the PNW with lots and lots of moisture and warm air.
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A northern Stau bringing Some big numbers around here for the next 6 days. Hopefully we can ditch the touring gear for a while!
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Back end of 06z GFS showing cold weather building across Europe towards end of month. Models still going back and forth on this for the moment.

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Pretty cold end to January for the UK playing out in 18z.

Also the Alps, but particularly Scandinavia.



ECM similar though not as extreme.
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Looking good
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Looks like it passes the light and fluffy test!
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As often happens we're right on the edge of a classic weather split here, looking up the valley in the howling wind towards the Col du Lautaret there's a storm going on whilst looking in front of me and down the valley, we're just getting the occasional flurry blown along by the wind.



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@Weathercam, yes we had the storm on the other side. Around 25cm in Bourg. I'll be up in resort later with kids ski club so hopefully a bit more up there.
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Best enjoy the snow this week as next week not looking so good



UKMO and others show the Atlantic is too active and drawing the northerly into a SW flow over western alps.

Will need big improvements to avoid a washout.
GFS 00z run isn’t bad though.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The recent cold and snowfall may be weakening in terms of future prospects as we move into February for the Alps. Likely that the focus shifts away from South to North later this month and into Feb:

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2021/01/14/europe-on-the-long-term-14th-jan/
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Any warm up looks relatively short lived on tonight’s 12z GFS.

Arlberg

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=47.2&lon=10.2



Chamonix

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=45.9&lon=6.9



Meanwhile not just Schneechaos, but... Totales Schneechaos!

https://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/lawinen-und-dauerfrost-totales-schneechaos-in-oesterreich/461114222
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@nozawaonsen, that GFS mean is encouraging, but it seems out on it's own a little bit at the moment. Often leads at that timeframe though, so not saying it's wrong.

What is wrong (hopefully) is this ECM run at day 10.....clean greenland high, yet a SW flow into france. Temps aren't disastrous, but also far from ideal.



Maybe south UK in with a better chance though if any 'channel runners' pop up
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PNW got hammered with over 10cm-15cm of rain and high winds. Basically lost 20cm of base at the resorts. Most were shut down with 100 mph winds that hit on Tuesday. Freezing level was above 2200 meters. Lots of power outages in the Seattle area, with mudslides and downed trees.

Jackson Hole got some left overs of the storm with high winds and the Tram closed down in the early afternoon on Wednesday. Parts of Colorado also got hit with 100 mph winds on Wednesday too.

Looks like warm weather for the next few days, and possibly next week colder weather coming but mainly dry. SW Colorado and New Mexico could possibly see a storm come through on Monday/Tuesday.

Out into FI, maybe something stirring for the end of the 3rd week of January. But next week, at least for the West Coast looks to be uneventful.
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Big...

https://mobil.krone.at/2318659
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The rest of Jan looking bumpy, disrupted, some amazing pressure charts across all the models



Bit more snow tomorrow, then a few days calm before the vortex
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Massive amounts of snow here, even down in the city we got 30+cm. Also an INCREDIBLY touchy snowpack - I've never seen it like this before. Big settling sounds, shooting cracks and natural releases even low down in tight trees.

A weekend to either stay on piste or stay super mellow and micro-manage the terrain on every turn...



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Saw this from Lech Shocked


Another big, cold dump here overnight and without the wind should make for some great tree skiing today
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@BobinCH, that’s the base sorted now it looks like to going be a good season . you’ve just got to be patient . @ @polo,
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Rob Mackley wrote:
@BobinCH, that’s the base sorted now it looks like to going be a good season . you’ve just got to be patient . @ @polo,


Very happy to be proved drastically wrong on that one snowHead
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@BobinCH, Very Happy Very Happy
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I don't want to get too far ahead of things, but the last week of Jan has flipped to washout mode....GFS mean temp at 1500m in the NW has gone from showing -5c to +3c around the 27-28th.



Rain up to 2200m would be a first this season.....but it's the amount of precipitation that's worrying at the moment. That red line at the bottom of the graph (average precip forecast)...it's unusual to see it so elevated for such a long stretch of time, and it has been repeated on many of these GFS runs recently.

The good news is the reliable timeframe looks quite snowy to low levels again next weekend (22-24 jan), but FI is looking decidedly wet. Active atlantic pulling the whole pattern into a very flat and stormy westerly flow, under all that northern blocking. Similar pressure pattern to what the upper layers are showing in terms of vortex displacement.

Still a little time for another adjustment, so the season remains pretty good for another week at least Smile
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The nature of the mean is that it averages out all the ensemble runs. That does not mean that the outcome will be the average of all the runs. It’s more likely that it will start to cluster around distinct events as the individual runs start to once they come into a more reliable time frame. That said it does look like quite an unsettled spell out in FI and likely mild at times. But then again it’s FI. So.
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@nozawaonsen, yep to clarify I’m not suggesting that the FL will be 2200m (mean) in the NW on 27 Jan. I’m more interested in movements in the mean in FI, in this case unfortunately warmer.

Other models have been hinting at this evolution so it’s noteworthy of course when they all become more closely aligned. Even if it’s 10 days away, it’s as valid a signal as a similar cold one would be
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polo wrote:

Rain up to 2200m would be a first this season.....


Next you’ll be saying it’s a low tide season NehNeh

http://youtube.com/v/iFzvXITgeME
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@BobinCH, great vids.....how would you like another 4m?

Notwithstanding any brief (hopefully) spikes in FL.....still showing near 2000m on the 27th, there is no shortage of precipitation coming. Typical westerly flow, fast moving troughs and ridges will be the theme in the west at least.

Checked the last 4 GFS runs and they range from peaks of 300mm to over 400mm out to month end

Here's the latest, GFS 06z


And the 8-14 day NOAA mean pressure anomalies....green lines show the direction of flow, blue dashed lines are low pressure centered over UK.....and a suppressed azores ridge trying to get a foothold over Iberia
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Some promising signals for the West Coast and Intermountain West for later this week. Has been a case of high pressure and Jet stream continuing to stay up North of the USA/Canada border the past week.

There is some fresh snow that fell in the interior BC and Northern Montana on Sunday evening.

Some fresh snow for Northern New Mexico (Taos) and into SW CO will fall Monday/Tuesday. Not a huge event but a refresh of the sloped.

The runnels up to 9,000 feet were disheartening to see this weekend at my home mountain of Bachelor. Some natural slide activity at a few Cascade ski areas due to inversion and warm air has left the snow pack in a sketchy situation.

Late week snow for Tahoe and into Utah and CO is showing up on the ECM

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Dry January he said... best stick to ski porn snowHead
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Ensembles still looking very “frothy” as in @BobinCH’s chart above. As systems cross over the temperatures look like fluctuating considerably though still early to be able to pick out with much confidence how that will translate to the snow line coinciding with the heaviest precipitation. Going to be quite windy at times too. In general the milder and more violent (and also heavier precipitation) weather looks like being to the west.
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Hopefully, some good accumulations for us down Sarf from Thursday onwards and temps remaining cold, and then differing forecasts for the isotherm by the middle of next week, but don't think that coincides with precipitation, but could well negate the impact of the fresh snow Sad



And just goes to show that the really cold temps we've had since the last substantial snow-fall over New Year has kept the snow in good condition in the forest on N facing slopes, but the wind's of the past week has annihilated anything above the tree-line.

This was yesterday and shows what can still be found, but getting harder hence the new snow is welcome!


http://youtube.com/v/dPJFpTe4vhs
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955 mb vortex blob over UK tomorrow.....must be stormy there? Getting close to Cat 4 hurricane levels (<945 mb)



Mean charts still point to strong westerly flow into Feb, switching from SW - W -NW and so on. Some minor signs of heights trying to build more vertically / northwards such as this from GEM (which would slow down the atlantic onslaught and turn the flow colder on the eastern flank)



Don't think it makes much difference right now, plenty of widespread snow coming

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Fœhn blowing like crazy outside right now at lake level (wrecking all that great snow Evil or Very Mad). Let’s hope that forecast for fresh holds!
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BobinCH wrote:
Fœhn blowing like crazy outside right now at lake level (wrecking all that great snow Evil or Very Mad). Let’s hope that forecast for fresh holds!


Trust me when I say this, but I know the feeling. We might see some snow here in Central Oregon down to about 300 meters. Forecast could call for snow in Seattle on Sunday with freezing level right about Sea Level or maybe a few hundred meters above.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out as the Cascades had rain up to 2,300+ meters. So, the slopes are covered in a sheen of thin ice on top of the snow. Lots of natural slides on East and South facing slopes from a bit of a warming trend that came through.

Temps have been falling, and there's a trough of low pressure coming in to the Sierras and Tahoe on Thursday/Friday. Some of that weather will just scrape Central Oregon. We might get lucky on Sunday with a bit more snow, and then Monday/Tuesday should see storms coming back in with the HP being pushed Eastward and out of the West Coast to allow low pressure troughs to come back in.

Those storms will work there way through to Utah and Colorado as well. They might break up a bit as they head East. Still watching the GFS and ECM runs to get a better sense of direction and strength. The good news is there's cold air in place, so that should help.
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Temperatures look like dipping quite steeply early next week. Before rising towards month end, though fortunately that doesn’t look like lasting too long.

Chamonix 06z



Arlberg 06z

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Meanwhile if you are watching rivers rise in parts of the British Isles, this is likely precipitation in next three days...

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A massive no-show of the snow that was forecast for here so far, clutching at straws is that there's still 20cm on the forecast for later today.

Last evening I encountered black-ice the likes of which I've never experienced, I had my .98km to walk the dogs back from friends and I opted for the road as I was legal with my attestation rather than walk down the piste, and it was around +1.5 and light rain rather than snow which you could get at those temps, and the road was just sheet ice and a gradient of circa 5% so I had to walk in the snow at the side of the road, and even on the flat it was treacherous!
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Quote:

it was around +1.5 and light rain rather than snow


Here, at 1344 mts; It was raining all night, quite heavily at some point. From what I see from my window atm, snow line is at 2000 mts. Mad
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