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The All New 20/21 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
This is rather fine on the subject of winter solstice...

“...The sun is spent, and now his flasks
 Send forth light squibs, no constant rays;
  The world's whole sap is sunk;”

- John Donne

Smashing winter light photo in the original tweet too.

https://twitter.com/patchlimb/status/1338026325056040961?s=21

Arlberg

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=47.2&lon=10.2



Chamonix

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=45.9&lon=6.9



GFS out in FI going for some mid Atlantic blocking and subsequent cold air for... Christmas! Will the 06z back it up?



Bit far out obviously. But would mark a change from the mild spell over the next 10 days.




http://youtube.com/v/xi49yirJiEA
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@clarky999, a picture confirming the snow conditions is fine....we've seen plenty of such video's uploaded, and this thread always delivers on austrian travel chaos as a bonus. I'm not really bothered at all about what people want to post, I'm having enough fun outdoors. If you want photo's and videos I'm sure there are quite a few people on here who could share stuff almost every day, certainly every week, even with half of the skiiing world in lockdown Very Happy

Those pics on previous page were from Mont Chery in Les Gets.

Todays pics are from Hirmentaz, a small 'very' french resort near Lac Leman, only 1200-1600m.....we turned up at 9am and there were already 25 cars there, I've seen it quieter in mid season with the lifts running.

Don't worry I've no intention of uploading pics and videos here everytime I get on the hill.....or everytime that 'conditions need confirming'....but I will today, my mate Jon has been thru a very tough year (divorce, company failing etc) and it was his first ski outing, so was nice to hear him whooping and hollering all the way down




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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@polo

Awesome pics! Looks like the Alps, Dolomites, and everywhere in between are getting the goods!

USA was getting mostly high pressure and sun the past two weeks, while Europe and Canada were raging. Worm is turning for South of the Canadian border with the Cascades, Northern Rockies, the Tetons, and Wasstach, Colorado Rockies starting to see some storm activity this up coming week.

Tahoe and lots of Northern Calif. are going to a shelter in place. No hotel or VRBO, Air BnB rentals allowed for the next two weeks. Should be good for the locals as they too should be seeing some snow.
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Much warmer today around Grenoble than it has been and we're expecting rain to 2000 meters in the mountains tomorrow so the snowpack will be very heavy Wednesday - possibility of wet snow slides at lower altitudes which will make accessing the fresh higher up problematic. Obviously you can knock a few hundred meters off that figure for the Haute-Savoie.

Hope the rain doesn't do too much damage.
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The new AO forecast that was just released, shows again that the present AO - will most likely persist towards New Year. Ec operational today following up. THe jet stream is at the moment curving down towards Iberia and bending right back north. Giving mild conditions for Europe this week (particulary a mild weekend in store for Scandinavia with all that mild air being pushed up from the large low pressure system over UK). However, this is not a typical westernly flow and next week seems to spice things up. Christmas week, according to EC, will see an end to the bending of the jet stream. Would bring colder air to Northern Europe and also potentially, the Alps (northern more likely than the southern Alps). Might also see some good snowfall for western and northern Alps in general. The GFSs are swinging in all directions and no clear answer yet for the christmas week. Anyhow, the set up for snow and colder christmas for the Alps compared to last year seems to be good. Scandinavia might dry up and get more normal temperatures.
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Nudging 10c in Chamonix this week.

In December peak-winter.

Global boiling is back.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
A relatively warm period in the run up to Christmas is pretty common despite what you might expect.

From 17/18 thread.

nozawaonsen wrote:
So is mild, wet and stormy weather at Christmas an oddity? Not really. Indeed so common is it that it has its own singularity. Weihnachtstauwetter. 70% of the time Christmas is accompanied by this weather pattern.


From the 12/13 thread.

nozawaonsen wrote:
xander89, just to clarify things for you. The current weather in the Alps is not freak weather. It's mild weather. And a period of mild weather is relatively common in the Alps. Indeed mild weather at Christmas actually has it's own singularity named for the period, Weihnachtstauwetter.

This current weather doesn't have any real impact on how the weather will be in January and certainly not beyond. It will have an impact on the snowpack (all weather does), but I doubt that will be an issue for you.

I'd stop worrying if I were you.


That’s not suggesting climate change isn’t real, important or something we should focus on. It is once again a note of caution about certain people’s tendency to post deliberately alarmist comments.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
GFS 12z continues to show cold air pushing in from Christmas as it has got a number of recent runs. ECM should start to offer collateral, or not, from tomorrow.
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EC monthly has a wet and relativly mild signal for the Alps in the christmas week. Week 53 has a wet signal for southern Alps and cold signal for the Alps. First week in 2021 has a signal for a dry and cold start to the new year all over the Alps. Pretty solid AO - development the next 4 weeks.
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Colder than average temperatures arriving across the Alps fir Christmas on 00z ECM.



And also in the 00z GFS.



Time will tell of course.
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Blimey, how to make sense of that Xmas week forecast?!?!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@BobinCH, looks like New Year week might be fabulous - cold, sunny and fresh snow?
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
In easy terms please we have @Woosh, saying Xmas will be relatively mild then @nozawaonsen, and @BobinCH, mentioning a cold and snowy Christmas week!

Why the big difference?

Who to believe!?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Alpinebear, mon-weds mild with warm(ish) air flowing from the south west. From Wednesday night/thursday morning, cold air descends. Christmas Eve is snowy and cold. Maybe some snow showers on Christmas Day
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Week 1 = hot.
Week 2 = cold.

Typical pattern of recent seasons.

Wild swings between hot and cold.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Alpinebear, I was refering to the last EC monthly prognosis. In that prognosis, you sum up the general pattern week by week. But you might have huge differences inside a week. It is just a general pattern overview or big picture. I believe that you will see a change to colder weather towards next weekend. Warmer than normal from now until around Christmas Eve. From then and onwards, I think you will have cold weather beeing pushed down from the north. Might very well see this pattern last well into January. Will most likely see some good snow episodes as well.
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Looks dry and mild until Xmas eve now. Good for Piste bashing in the sunshine. Not so good for the off piste which needs more snow in the West. Hopefully NY’s week delivers on the cold and snowy signals...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I wouldn't worry about anything beyond 10 days at this stage, and even that timeframe has a lot of moving parts to sort out first.

GEM this morning not showing the northerly blast on 24th (can compare to GFS chart at top of the page, albeit 4 days closer now).



So the signal has weakened somewhat, it's still there on ECM 00z (25th-26th), but not as good on latest GFS Op.

The mean charts in the 8-10 day range show an atlantic ridge up to greenland, and eastern europe block also stretching a long way north.....western europe is in the middle with a pretty slack W - NW flow and slight low pressure anomaly. So likely colder in the west with snow showers.

In the 8-14 day range (23rd-29th), NOAA produce a chart that is derived from combined GFS and ECM data (the weightings of which I believe are manually assessed each day by an actual human forecaster).
So again we see the big atlantic ridge into greenland / arctic, and western europe under slack NW flow (green lines). But the low pressure anomaly is quite far south, too close to iberia again.....so could easily see some mild air mixed in.



No clear answer then, chance of cooler weather is there for the last week of Dec, but depending on where the troughs roll in it's hard to say which part of the alps will do best at this range.

@BobinCH yep we always need more snow, but some of us have been off piste since September wink in the west.....1200-1700m meadows have been as good as any recent early season
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@polo, fair enough but skiing meadows between 1200-1700m doesn’t really get me that excited unfortunately. We need a good 50-100cm dump to pack in the rocks on the main off piste routes round here. Please summon the snow Gods to the West for NY week!
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06z GFS continues to suggest a colder spell with snow for Christmas.



@Alpinebear, it’s not really a question of who to believe as at present it’s too early to tell (see post one, page one). But there is a signal out there. If it grows in strength you can increase confidence. If it doesn’t you can’t. So far it’s looking relatively consistent (ie not every model, every run, but it does crop up a fair amount). We’ll see.
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^also some posts refer to different time frames, ie one day graphs vs 6 day graph / weekly anomalies...both can be right
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
What the 06z ensembles show is pretty clear support for at least a period of cooler temperatures from around Christmas for maybe five days (though the back end of that is a long way out indeed). Though again the obvious caveat that this is one run/one model.



Signal for snow less clear at this stage, but you’d anticipate that this far out.
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Thanks everyone for the explanation.
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12z GFS pushes cold air across the Alps from Christmas Eve.

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Winter Storm Warning for Mid-Atlantic - New England States - Too bad a lot of that potential 3" per hour snow fall is going to be wasted on some flat land....And don't be thrown off by Wyoming County, that's in Pennsylvania.

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
630 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

PAZ043-044-047-048-072-171500-
/O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-201217T1500Z/
Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton,
Wilkes-Barre, Milford, and Honesdale
630 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 18 to 24 inches.
Localized amounts over 24 inches from Wyoming county northeastward.


* WHERE...Southern Wayne, Pike, Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming
counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening and
Thursday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour
are possible through the overnight. East to northeast winds at
10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, especially at higher
elevations, may cause some blowing snow and isolated power
outages.
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Heavy snow strands 1,100 cars on highway, causes blackouts in Japan

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/12/f6772cab8ad3-hundreds-of-vehicles-stranded-northwest-of-tokyo-after-heavy-snowfall.html

“Some areas in the country have seen record levels of snow. Minakami in Gunma Prefecture had 217 centimeters over a 72-hour period to Thursday morning, while Yuzawa in Niigata Prefecture saw over 180 cm as of 8 a.m.”
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Cold spell from around Christmas Eve starting to build cross model support.

Out in FI GFS12z brings in some more guns.




http://youtube.com/v/Y70vcs3oV14
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nozawaonsen,

Hi, someone (maybe yourself) gave me a link toy one of those graphs for my home location. I had it for years but it stopped working in September. Could you give me a new link? North Coast of Northern Ireland.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@johnboy, do you know your long lat?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Just googled

55 13 N

-6 67 W
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@johnboy, on this link you should be able to search by towns near you, using the top left search bar: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=201&bw=1&geoid=3163
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@clarky999,

Cheers, that's great.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@johnboy, or here in a slightly different format.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=55.13&lon=-6.67

If you look at the address you can see how you can alter it.
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How GFS currently sees it out to The end of Christmas Day.

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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Here's some numbers for the NW alps

20th Dec, might get 10cm at 1600m
Then it warms up into the 23rd with some rain to 2200m
Christmas snow starts arriving quite high initially, but FL set to quickly drop from 2400m to 400m

Latest strat wind forecast shows a collapse into the last week of Dec....interesting to note all the periods that the blue line has been below the black line (avg).....coincided with most of the snowfalls so far (eg late Sep-mid Oct, Nov was a write off, then early Dec and now possibly late Dec).



More Op runs showing some incredible charts around the 28th

GEM shows an almost perfect Dec 2017 la Nina re-run


GFS more positivley tilted with lows towards Biscay / Spain (so milder, but still cold, on this time frame)


GFS has been very good on this pattern call, from an impressive way out, but it's still on average the 4th best model at day 5 (behind ECM, UKMO, GEM)....ICON not included in these stats, so we don't know how that does but I think it's up there too.
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@nozawaonsen, can't see anything
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Alpinebear, have you taken the lens cap off?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
This is how above post looks to me



This is how I suspect it should look

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@polo, @Alpinebear, this is what it looks like to me... so a mystery.

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Meanwhile ECM for 28/12.



So some work to do (as you’d expect that far out) in terms of what develops.
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