 Poster: A snowHead
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@polo, his weather and climate posts are more or less on topic and, even if they are half-trolling and deliberately negative. I am not suggesting they should be removed.
What I don't want here is another you-know-what discussion.
And no I don't regard this thread as @nozawaonsen's personal channel. Your, and several others forecasters', posts are every bit as interesting as his and I am sure are highly appreciated by all regular readers. So please do keep posting.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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It's always nice to have feedback, and I have to point out how encouraging Noz has been to me over the years (despite my occasional outbursts). But there's definitely a history of shooting down the new comers....some harsh words were directed at Jellybeans for example when he first joined and many other knowledgeable posters have left in a hurry. A guess there's a natural resistance to change, and it's not an easy balance to be confident enough (or bothered) to take the group criticism and remain polite etc.
So if enough people want a second weather thread send me a pm. I mean we have 20+ threads covering the-thing-that-cannot-be-named, and several hundred more threads that have nothing to do with snow......so there might be scope for 2 weather threads? If I did one, it would not be to rival this one, more of a compliment.....maybe a deeper look at the model output, or I'd focus on the NW alps for example to include more short term charting (0-3 days) than here. Sometimes I want to post 3-4 times a day but often hold back so as not to completely take over.
Nothing in it for me except sharing my obsessive weather watching hobby.....it's mostly just copy and paste anyway, with a little bit of knowledge on the side.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I agree with some of your criticisms of this thread. Nevertheless, I'd prefer that everyone posts here, and that people are encouraged to post regardless of their level of expertise.
Though I suppose if you occasionally wanted to post something really long you could create another topic with your name in the title and maybe post a shortened version here along with a link.
Generally though, multiple threads about the same thing will just take longer to read and will create duplicate content.
(Perhaps this entire discussion belongs in another thread though because it's not really about weather  )
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Tue 7-07-20 9:22; edited 2 times in total
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Incidentally @polo, the quote you posted from Whitegold was definitely not what he posted?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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i don't think we need another weather thread, IMHO. Having this all in one place is useful, you just have to learn to ignore the trolls, or use the forum feature to auto hide them!
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I agree - no need for another thread. @polo, please do post as often as you feel like, short term or not. The more explanations on what all wiggly lines can potentially mean the better!
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Temperatures starting to feel more summer like across the Alps. But certainly nothing like the heatwave we had at the start of last summer.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4
Eastern Alps in particular could see some heavy rain heading into the weekend.
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| polo wrote: |
Here's another recent one from end of last thread
| 8611 wrote: |
| A good one to see the back of I think, for a lot of reasons |
What reasons? Apart from the season ending early.....if you're going to bother to post something, is it not better to be specific.
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Bit surprised to see that thrown up here, but...
Communication does not always have to be specific, it can be done in many ways and in fact the best communicators will use subtlety to get their message across rather than shouting it from the rooftops (I'm not saying I'm a good communicator, far from it)
I suppose I had in mind the following, and was reflecting the somewhat sombre mood at the time:-
1. The fact the season ended really early
2. Covid
3. The pall cast over skiing in general by the virus, which came to reality this season and will define it
4. The fact that it was not a particularly good season in conditions terms, pre lockdown anyway (open to correction on that, I have a very poor memory and the seasons blend into one)
5. The fact that I only got three days of personal skiing in
6. The very bitchy and snipey atmosphere in this thread (again, I'm open to correction, I think that was last season)
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Actually, wtf has this got to do with the weather thread, and 6. is worth bearing in mind and being avoided this year
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Incidentally @polo, the quote you posted from Whitegold was definitely not what he posted? |
I'm confused, this was the quote I posted....that has now been removed.....was there more to it? Not a big deal either way, I was just surprised that this particular post was removed.
"Winter is already here for the Southern Hemisphere, and coming for the North. Be mindful of a 2nd or 3rd future virus wave."
@8611.....erm, you posted it in the weather thread ("good to see the back of" etc), so I asked you to expand, in the weather thread.
My response is 1, 2 and 3 are all the same reason, not really 3 different reasons.
4. It was a pretty normal season in my view, had a good early start, and then 3-4 great powder days at low altitude, many more higher up.
5. Not a relevant measure of a bad season / thread
6. If you delve into the history of the thread I think you can find much more angst / aggro further back.....didn't think this year was noteworthy at all, just standard....there were a few 'collisions' along the way
Brief comment on the weather.....absolulety no consistency showing up in models beyond the reliable timeframe. Been messy for a few weeks, swinging between more westerly driven Atlantic weather vs settled high pressure.....again today was expecting to see high pressure set up over the UK, but it's all change again, the Atlantic influence is actually getting more pronounced on GFS (8-10 days).
So in the absence of consistent patterns across models and consecutive runs, confidence in any mid July forecast is very low right now.
Lots of other interesting long term developments to discuss....solar min still going on (-AO), QBO is acting weird (flipping E to W to E), ENSO has dropped sharply towards La Nina but signs of reversing back to neutral, arctic sea ice melting at record pace, and the equatorial atlantic is very warm....so conditions are building for a big hurricane season
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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As an observer of this thread, this continued dialogue about last years bad behaviour just looks like a little boys pissing contest (again). Suggest it moves on to discussing weather only. If people post then then they shouldn’t expect to be crushed or crucified for posting. Polite corrections or reasoned arguments are welcome and beneficial to the casual observer of this thread.
I am generally loving the thread and it’s contents so it would be amazing if the excellent content can continue with weather discussion and technical input from a broad range of people without fear.
Thanks!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@polo, the original quote was more unpleasant (not in any shocking way, just unnecessary) and really just underlined that he or she is really only here to troll and provoke people.
[now see that the post I thought you were referring to is still up, no idea what happened to the previous one, but moving on].
BOM assessment of ENSO suggests “the chance of a La Niña forming in the coming months has increased to around 50% - twice the normal likelihood.”
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
There’s a good blog from back in May on the topic here.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2020-enso-update-road-trip
Last August ENSO neutral conditions looked likely and that proved to be the case, borderline El Niño, but it didn’t really get going.
Still far to early to tell this year, but even if it’s still edging that way not so far a signal for a strong La Niña (El Niño not currently on the cards). At least not yet.
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Wed 8-07-20 23:22; edited 2 times in total
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@Bennyboy1, ironically another non weather comment.....if I was a mod, I would delete every post that didn't discuss the weather  .....only kidding, banter is good, but random comments should be called out, and you can't stop them anyway
@nozawaonsen, yep, it's very cold in the east pacific and warm in the west...should lead to -IOD (Indian ocean dipole), which would be much better for Australia in terms of bush fires
Just saw some graphs indicating a burst of easterly trade winds is coming, so that would reduce the cold anomaly in the eastern end. But way too early for such analysis, and more importantly what would it all mean for the alps? I've read repeatedly that neither strong Nina nor strong Nino are good for cold and snowy Europe. The best winters tend to come with weak to moderate ENSO readings
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You know it makes sense.
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Severe weather.EU website posted an article on a very cold Mesosphere. Does this feed through to colder temps at lower altitudes?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Yep I think direct correlations as in La Niña/El Niño means snow/not snowy in the Alps are weak. Less so perhaps in parts of the US and Japan, even there its really just one of many elements which start to build up the seasonal pattern.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Bennyboy1, skiing on the mesosphere would be kind of wild, but you’d need a scarf.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Bennyboy1 wrote: |
As an observer of this thread, this continued dialogue about last years bad behaviour just looks like a little boys pissing contest (again). Suggest it moves on to discussing weather only. If people post then then they shouldn’t expect to be crushed or crucified for posting. Polite corrections or reasoned arguments are welcome and beneficial to the casual observer of this thread.
I am generally loving the thread and it’s contents so it would be amazing if the excellent content can continue with weather discussion and technical input from a broad range of people without fear.
Thanks! |
Yes agree with this - although they'll always be a bit of natural deviation as would happen in a normal conversation, which will generally be about snow/skiing (which on a skiing/snowboarding forum is to be expected), and as long as it's brief and doesn't take over, I think that everyone is generally is fine with that. We don't want to get to a point where we almost have a forum police picking up on any non-weather related comment.
Hopefully we can take others comments in the vein they were intended, which is generally without malice.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| polo wrote: |
@8611.....erm, you posted it in the weather thread ("good to see the back of" etc), so I asked you to expand, in the weather thread. |
I posted it at the very end of last years weather thread, and you decided to drag it up here for comment. Which I find bizarre, and if you don't see why may I suggest you drag your head up from the weather books and brush up on your interpersonal skills. It is totally and unnecessarily provocative.
This thread gets very busy in Winter, in off season there's only a handful of people left, generally the more passionate ski addicts who still read about skiing in the height of Summer. My comment simply marked closure of a season which I suspect will be the most memorable, in terms of the seismic effect on the industry, in all our years.
As regards everything else, thank you for your tremendously informed analysis. You will forgive me if I continue to form my own views on why things matter to me. Continue on with your twaddle but please don't involve me in it.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Its frigging cold for July in UK........................... period
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Thanks@FrediKanoute, but to be honest there are plenty of other threads for posting news about the virus. I’m keen to avoid clogging this thread with that discussion. No offence meant.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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GWV mentioned that La Niña SST’s have actually deepened and the SOI is also stronger so you have sea and atmospheric conditions aligned at the moment (for weak La Niña).
I think the downstream effect is to see the azores shift west into the mid Atlantic. Loosely speaking you’d expect to see -NAO, which we have, whereas El Niño is more likely to produce +NAO? Will try to find some links. As ever happy to be corrected / educated.
So quite a battle going on with the azores ridge getting pulled left (Niña) and forced right (rising AAM). Also the ongoing -AO signal means pressure is unusually high further north too.
If the models weren’t struggling enough already, they also have some early tropical storms to contend with.
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You know it makes sense.
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@polo, All of those runs looking good for kayak sales in Cornwall 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@BoardieK, yep fairly pronounced NE / SW split...should be very pleasant down south
Meanwhile across the Atlantic, some places might hit 120F....which would be 49C.....Saudi Arabia style
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Now my head hurts....pretty hard to read all of it, but just focusing on the first page....
Eastern pacific based La Nina, which is what we currently have, suggests -NAO winter.
The more newly observed central based La Nina leads to +NAO.
Opposite for El Nino.
The bit I don't get is it then says
"A canonical El Niño response in late winter is suggested to be accompanied by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern with a colder and drier than normal weather, and the La Niña has a largely opposing impact"
Further research suggests canonical is actually east based (as the deep pool fans out to the west). So sentence above suggests Eastern El Nino leads to -NAO?
I must be missing something, and that's just the page 1 introduction
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| polo wrote: |
| Further research suggests canonical is actually east based (as the deep pool fans out to the west). So sentence above suggests Eastern El Nino leads to -NAO |
I think specifically that you might expect -NAO to become prevalent in late winter.
Whereas EP La Niña has more prevalence for -NAO over winter as a whole.
But I think the signal is relatively weak in Europe.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Scotland.
A few days ago.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Could be more summer skiing in the near future, am getting tempted....and the 12z are hinting low pressure to head SE, but in FI, not to be trusted. Check out GFS for some turbulent UK prospects.
Re ENSO discussion, am pretty sure -NAO and -AO are the default state in late winter every year as the polar vortex fades out.
Nevertheless, I think the whole ENSO teleconnection goes something like this
Cyclical sea surface conditions in the pacific ocean can have an impact on western European weather depending on whether
- it's warm (el nino) or cold (la Nina)
- if it's an east based anomaly, or a central one, or god forbid a mixture of the two
- if the anomaly develops in early winter, or late winter
- if the anomaly persists for a short period or a protracted one
- if the overall ENSO signal gets established over 5 consecutive months or not
- and if it's a weak-moderate signal or strong one
then....and only then....can you loosely imagine that it would lead to either +NAO, or -NAO
and then, and only then, might it lead to weather associated with the aforementioned osciliation states,
and finally, that weather may or may not hit a particular part of western europe
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| polo wrote: |
| Re ENSO discussion, am pretty sure -NAO and -AO are the default state in late winter every year as the polar vortex fades out. |
Not so sure about that? Looking back over last decade:
2010 negative NAO all year (!)
2011 started negative, but positive on February, March, April.
2012 positive till May
2013 started positive, negative February and March.
2014 positive till May
2015 positive till June
2016 positive till May
2017 positive till May
2018 negative in March positive otherwise
2019 positive till May
2020 positive till April
So there’s often a switch to negative in mid to late Spring, but months with overall negative NAO in winter early or late are rare.
With AO over the last decade:
2010 negative all year bar July (!)
2011 started negative switched positive in February
2012 started negative switched positive in March before going back negative
2013 started negative switched positive in April
2014 started negative switched positive in February
2015 positive all way till July
2016 started negative switched positive in March
2017 positive till April
2018 started negative positive in February
2019 started negative switched positive in February
2020 started positive switched negative in May
So AO more likely to be negative in winter before switching positive.
That said it may be the case that short sharp periods of -NAO or -AO may crop up more late winter (haven’t tracked through that data! Nor haveI cross referenced last decade with ENSO which might be interesting - though obviously a pretty weak sample size).
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@polo, for sure then you add in the difference between strong or weak episodes of La Niña/El Nino and it’s pretty much nailed on... Be interesting to see how it plays out.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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FAQ
