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The All New 20/21 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@polo, his weather and climate posts are more or less on topic and, even if they are half-trolling and deliberately negative. I am not suggesting they should be removed.
What I don't want here is another you-know-what discussion.

And no I don't regard this thread as @nozawaonsen's personal channel. Your, and several others forecasters', posts are every bit as interesting as his and I am sure are highly appreciated by all regular readers. So please do keep posting.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
It's always nice to have feedback, and I have to point out how encouraging Noz has been to me over the years (despite my occasional outbursts). But there's definitely a history of shooting down the new comers....some harsh words were directed at Jellybeans for example when he first joined and many other knowledgeable posters have left in a hurry. A guess there's a natural resistance to change, and it's not an easy balance to be confident enough (or bothered) to take the group criticism and remain polite etc.

So if enough people want a second weather thread send me a pm. I mean we have 20+ threads covering the-thing-that-cannot-be-named, and several hundred more threads that have nothing to do with snow......so there might be scope for 2 weather threads? If I did one, it would not be to rival this one, more of a compliment.....maybe a deeper look at the model output, or I'd focus on the NW alps for example to include more short term charting (0-3 days) than here. Sometimes I want to post 3-4 times a day but often hold back so as not to completely take over.

Nothing in it for me except sharing my obsessive weather watching hobby.....it's mostly just copy and paste anyway, with a little bit of knowledge on the side.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I agree with some of your criticisms of this thread. Nevertheless, I'd prefer that everyone posts here, and that people are encouraged to post regardless of their level of expertise.

Though I suppose if you occasionally wanted to post something really long you could create another topic with your name in the title and maybe post a shortened version here along with a link.

Generally though, multiple threads about the same thing will just take longer to read and will create duplicate content.

(Perhaps this entire discussion belongs in another thread though because it's not really about weather wink )


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Tue 7-07-20 9:22; edited 2 times in total
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Incidentally @polo, the quote you posted from Whitegold was definitely not what he posted?
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
i don't think we need another weather thread, IMHO. Having this all in one place is useful, you just have to learn to ignore the trolls, or use the forum feature to auto hide them!
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I agree - no need for another thread. @polo, please do post as often as you feel like, short term or not. The more explanations on what all wiggly lines can potentially mean the better!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Temperatures starting to feel more summer like across the Alps. But certainly nothing like the heatwave we had at the start of last summer.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Eastern Alps in particular could see some heavy rain heading into the weekend.

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
polo wrote:


Here's another recent one from end of last thread
8611 wrote:
A good one to see the back of I think, for a lot of reasons


What reasons? Apart from the season ending early.....if you're going to bother to post something, is it not better to be specific.



Bit surprised to see that thrown up here, but...

Communication does not always have to be specific, it can be done in many ways and in fact the best communicators will use subtlety to get their message across rather than shouting it from the rooftops (I'm not saying I'm a good communicator, far from it)

I suppose I had in mind the following, and was reflecting the somewhat sombre mood at the time:-

1. The fact the season ended really early
2. Covid
3. The pall cast over skiing in general by the virus, which came to reality this season and will define it
4. The fact that it was not a particularly good season in conditions terms, pre lockdown anyway (open to correction on that, I have a very poor memory and the seasons blend into one)
5. The fact that I only got three days of personal skiing in
6. The very bitchy and snipey atmosphere in this thread (again, I'm open to correction, I think that was last season)
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Actually, wtf has this got to do with the weather thread, and 6. is worth bearing in mind and being avoided this year
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Incidentally @polo, the quote you posted from Whitegold was definitely not what he posted?


I'm confused, this was the quote I posted....that has now been removed.....was there more to it? Not a big deal either way, I was just surprised that this particular post was removed.

"Winter is already here for the Southern Hemisphere, and coming for the North. Be mindful of a 2nd or 3rd future virus wave."


@8611.....erm, you posted it in the weather thread ("good to see the back of" etc), so I asked you to expand, in the weather thread.
My response is 1, 2 and 3 are all the same reason, not really 3 different reasons.
4. It was a pretty normal season in my view, had a good early start, and then 3-4 great powder days at low altitude, many more higher up.
5. Not a relevant measure of a bad season / thread
6. If you delve into the history of the thread I think you can find much more angst / aggro further back.....didn't think this year was noteworthy at all, just standard....there were a few 'collisions' along the way

Brief comment on the weather.....absolulety no consistency showing up in models beyond the reliable timeframe. Been messy for a few weeks, swinging between more westerly driven Atlantic weather vs settled high pressure.....again today was expecting to see high pressure set up over the UK, but it's all change again, the Atlantic influence is actually getting more pronounced on GFS (8-10 days).

So in the absence of consistent patterns across models and consecutive runs, confidence in any mid July forecast is very low right now.

Lots of other interesting long term developments to discuss....solar min still going on (-AO), QBO is acting weird (flipping E to W to E), ENSO has dropped sharply towards La Nina but signs of reversing back to neutral, arctic sea ice melting at record pace, and the equatorial atlantic is very warm....so conditions are building for a big hurricane season
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As an observer of this thread, this continued dialogue about last years bad behaviour just looks like a little boys pissing contest (again). Suggest it moves on to discussing weather only. If people post then then they shouldn’t expect to be crushed or crucified for posting. Polite corrections or reasoned arguments are welcome and beneficial to the casual observer of this thread.

I am generally loving the thread and it’s contents so it would be amazing if the excellent content can continue with weather discussion and technical input from a broad range of people without fear.

Thanks!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@polo, the original quote was more unpleasant (not in any shocking way, just unnecessary) and really just underlined that he or she is really only here to troll and provoke people.

[now see that the post I thought you were referring to is still up, no idea what happened to the previous one, but moving on].

BOM assessment of ENSO suggests “the chance of a La Niña forming in the coming months has increased to around 50% - twice the normal likelihood.”

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

There’s a good blog from back in May on the topic here.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2020-enso-update-road-trip

Last August ENSO neutral conditions looked likely and that proved to be the case, borderline El Niño, but it didn’t really get going.

Still far to early to tell this year, but even if it’s still edging that way not so far a signal for a strong La Niña (El Niño not currently on the cards). At least not yet.


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Wed 8-07-20 23:22; edited 2 times in total
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Bennyboy1, ironically another non weather comment.....if I was a mod, I would delete every post that didn't discuss the weather Cool .....only kidding, banter is good, but random comments should be called out, and you can't stop them anyway

@nozawaonsen, yep, it's very cold in the east pacific and warm in the west...should lead to -IOD (Indian ocean dipole), which would be much better for Australia in terms of bush fires
Just saw some graphs indicating a burst of easterly trade winds is coming, so that would reduce the cold anomaly in the eastern end. But way too early for such analysis, and more importantly what would it all mean for the alps? I've read repeatedly that neither strong Nina nor strong Nino are good for cold and snowy Europe. The best winters tend to come with weak to moderate ENSO readings
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Severe weather.EU website posted an article on a very cold Mesosphere. Does this feed through to colder temps at lower altitudes?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Yep I think direct correlations as in La Niña/El Niño means snow/not snowy in the Alps are weak. Less so perhaps in parts of the US and Japan, even there its really just one of many elements which start to build up the seasonal pattern.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Bennyboy1, skiing on the mesosphere would be kind of wild, but you’d need a scarf.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Bennyboy1 wrote:
As an observer of this thread, this continued dialogue about last years bad behaviour just looks like a little boys pissing contest (again). Suggest it moves on to discussing weather only. If people post then then they shouldn’t expect to be crushed or crucified for posting. Polite corrections or reasoned arguments are welcome and beneficial to the casual observer of this thread.

I am generally loving the thread and it’s contents so it would be amazing if the excellent content can continue with weather discussion and technical input from a broad range of people without fear.

Thanks!


Yes agree with this - although they'll always be a bit of natural deviation as would happen in a normal conversation, which will generally be about snow/skiing (which on a skiing/snowboarding forum is to be expected), and as long as it's brief and doesn't take over, I think that everyone is generally is fine with that. We don't want to get to a point where we almost have a forum police picking up on any non-weather related comment.

Hopefully we can take others comments in the vein they were intended, which is generally without malice.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
polo wrote:


@8611.....erm, you posted it in the weather thread ("good to see the back of" etc), so I asked you to expand, in the weather thread.


I posted it at the very end of last years weather thread, and you decided to drag it up here for comment. Which I find bizarre, and if you don't see why may I suggest you drag your head up from the weather books and brush up on your interpersonal skills. It is totally and unnecessarily provocative.

This thread gets very busy in Winter, in off season there's only a handful of people left, generally the more passionate ski addicts who still read about skiing in the height of Summer. My comment simply marked closure of a season which I suspect will be the most memorable, in terms of the seismic effect on the industry, in all our years.

As regards everything else, thank you for your tremendously informed analysis. You will forgive me if I continue to form my own views on why things matter to me. Continue on with your twaddle but please don't involve me in it.
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Its frigging cold for July in UK........................... period
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Looking at NAO and AO both currently just negative.

Through last season:

NAO overall positive up till April

December 1.20
January 1.34
February 1.26
March 1.01


AO was clearly in positive territory most of winter and up till May.

December 0.412
January 2.419
February 3.417
March 2.641

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html



That likelihood of + NAO conditions was being picked up quite strongly in long term model output by late October last year, though clearly rather like ENSO it doesn’t automatically equate to a certain type of weather outlook (though there are some trends it often supports). Moreover +NAO winters are more frequent than not (and clearly not all those winters were the same in terms of weather).
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As the guys in the NZ snow conditions threads are mentioning there’s been fresh snowfall with the likelihood of more on Sunday.

https://www.mountainwatch.com/grasshopper/#new-zealand
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
The chilly theme continues for the UK and much of Europe. FL down to 1600m tomorrow in Scotland, warming up early next week, followed by another Atlantic low coming in via Iceland further out.




The models differ on the track of next weeks low....it could drift harmlessly NE, but several runs now show it disrupting SE towards the mainland by next weekend, with GFS in particular blowing it up into a stormy spell for northern parts.
Too far for consensus, but other model output isn't far off.



Speaking of summer ski addicts....a mate of mine is booked for Cervinia 16-18th July, so am keeping an eye on the ensembles for him....can see the unsettled spell coming mid month and the mean FL (red) dropping to 3200m.



The AAM (angular momentum) is a teleconnection that I'm keen to learn more about as a leading indicator. When it's positive you can loosely expect to see high pressure take hold over Europe in summer, while -AAM is associated with troughs digging further south and ridges amplifying poleward, ie more unsettled. Happy to be corrected if anyone knows better. But latest CFS projections show a rising AAM into month end, which is at least a thin straw to clutch for now in terms of UK summer.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Well the Southern Hemisphere ski season in the state of Victoria is pretty much done - https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/starved-of-melburnians-and-snow-victorian-ski-season-facing-bitter-end-20200709-p55af5.html - C-19 bringing to an end what warmer than average weather had started.
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Thanks@FrediKanoute, but to be honest there are plenty of other threads for posting news about the virus. I’m keen to avoid clogging this thread with that discussion. No offence meant.
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CPC has now issued a La Niña watch.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance).
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Highs in the low 30s in many parts of Austria and up to 35C in Vienna yesterday. But as expected it’s broken now with much stormier weather in prospect.

“A level 1 and level 2 are issued for SE France, Switzerland, SE Germany, the Czech Republic, Austria and N Italy mainly for excessive convective precipitation, large hail and to a lesser degree for severe convective wind gusts.”

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2020071106_202007100004_2_stormforecast.xml

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Doesn't bode well for Scotland either with a series of lows rolling in next week. I am often more interested in watching the patterns evolve as it all comes down to how the models phase groups of low pressure, which in turn decides how much energy gets over a ridge etc. I'll go thru a couple of examples in detail some time, but here's a quick look at how next weeks Icelandic low is being modeled at t+144

First UKMO which has been it's usual reliable self, often sticking to it's guns when other models flip and flop


Next GEM, which has also been rock solid in not showing any troughing digging SE towards london....but all of a sudden it has amplified the azores ridge and split the low energy between 2 areas...south of Greenland and Scandi.


ECM now coming more in line with UKMO, albeit further NE on this run. It's entire ensemble suite has been calling for a deep low anomaly somewhere between Iceland and UK, while the Op flops around....not it's best few weeks.


And the GFS hasn't had a great grasp on things either, but it too has clearly moved towards UKMO



No idea what happens next. I'll be amazed if GEM is right, think it will flatten out the ridge like the others. Then the low may well get stuck where it is for a while as high pressure continues to build from the south.

Time for some fresh mountain air for me....been perfect conditions here for a while now in my view......no heatwaves, but still hitting 30c with a little rain every 2 weeks to keep the plants alive. More of this please.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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GWV mentioned that La Niña SST’s have actually deepened and the SOI is also stronger so you have sea and atmospheric conditions aligned at the moment (for weak La Niña).

I think the downstream effect is to see the azores shift west into the mid Atlantic. Loosely speaking you’d expect to see -NAO, which we have, whereas El Niño is more likely to produce +NAO? Will try to find some links. As ever happy to be corrected / educated.

So quite a battle going on with the azores ridge getting pulled left (Niña) and forced right (rising AAM). Also the ongoing -AO signal means pressure is unusually high further north too.

If the models weren’t struggling enough already, they also have some early tropical storms to contend with.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@polo, All of those runs looking good for kayak sales in Cornwall Very Happy
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@BoardieK, yep fairly pronounced NE / SW split...should be very pleasant down south

Meanwhile across the Atlantic, some places might hit 120F....which would be 49C.....Saudi Arabia style

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@polo, this is quite interesting on the La Niña NAO relationship.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Now my head hurts....pretty hard to read all of it, but just focusing on the first page....

Eastern pacific based La Nina, which is what we currently have, suggests -NAO winter.
The more newly observed central based La Nina leads to +NAO.
Opposite for El Nino.

The bit I don't get is it then says

"A canonical El Niño response in late winter is suggested to be accompanied by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern with a colder and drier than normal weather, and the La Niña has a largely opposing impact"

Further research suggests canonical is actually east based (as the deep pool fans out to the west). So sentence above suggests Eastern El Nino leads to -NAO?

I must be missing something, and that's just the page 1 introduction
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
polo wrote:
Further research suggests canonical is actually east based (as the deep pool fans out to the west). So sentence above suggests Eastern El Nino leads to -NAO


I think specifically that you might expect -NAO to become prevalent in late winter.

Whereas EP La Niña has more prevalence for -NAO over winter as a whole.

But I think the signal is relatively weak in Europe.
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Scotland.

A few days ago.

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Could be more summer skiing in the near future, am getting tempted....and the 12z are hinting low pressure to head SE, but in FI, not to be trusted. Check out GFS for some turbulent UK prospects.

Re ENSO discussion, am pretty sure -NAO and -AO are the default state in late winter every year as the polar vortex fades out.

Nevertheless, I think the whole ENSO teleconnection goes something like this

Cyclical sea surface conditions in the pacific ocean can have an impact on western European weather depending on whether

- it's warm (el nino) or cold (la Nina)
- if it's an east based anomaly, or a central one, or god forbid a mixture of the two
- if the anomaly develops in early winter, or late winter
- if the anomaly persists for a short period or a protracted one
- if the overall ENSO signal gets established over 5 consecutive months or not
- and if it's a weak-moderate signal or strong one

then....and only then....can you loosely imagine that it would lead to either +NAO, or -NAO
and then, and only then, might it lead to weather associated with the aforementioned osciliation states,
and finally, that weather may or may not hit a particular part of western europe
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polo wrote:
Re ENSO discussion, am pretty sure -NAO and -AO are the default state in late winter every year as the polar vortex fades out.


Not so sure about that? Looking back over last decade:

2010 negative NAO all year (!)
2011 started negative, but positive on February, March, April.
2012 positive till May
2013 started positive, negative February and March.
2014 positive till May
2015 positive till June
2016 positive till May
2017 positive till May
2018 negative in March positive otherwise
2019 positive till May
2020 positive till April

So there’s often a switch to negative in mid to late Spring, but months with overall negative NAO in winter early or late are rare.

With AO over the last decade:

2010 negative all year bar July (!)
2011 started negative switched positive in February
2012 started negative switched positive in March before going back negative
2013 started negative switched positive in April
2014 started negative switched positive in February
2015 positive all way till July
2016 started negative switched positive in March
2017 positive till April
2018 started negative positive in February
2019 started negative switched positive in February
2020 started positive switched negative in May

So AO more likely to be negative in winter before switching positive.

That said it may be the case that short sharp periods of -NAO or -AO may crop up more late winter (haven’t tracked through that data! Nor haveI cross referenced last decade with ENSO which might be interesting - though obviously a pretty weak sample size).
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Yeah I should have said spring instead of late winter....more Apr / May than March. Similar in late autumn.
Am also dealing with small sample sizes, and thinking of the likelihood of weather patterns over a few days / weeks instead of overall monthly or seasonal NAO/AO anomaly.

Black line below is the average zonal wind speed, which dips below zero from about mid April thru to September.



No guarantee the easterly winds will propagate down to the troposphere, but my understanding is the correlation is high, particularly with -AO.

re ENSO, am gonna stick with the loose relationship that Nina leads to an Atlantic ridge (-NAO sig). This seems widely accepted on netweather, but there are many if's and but's of course, so going further down the rabbit hole only throws up more variables.

Then of course there's good -NAO and bad -NAO depending on what part of the alps one requires snow.

Meanwhile Scotland scores again next weekend with the 1600m FL

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@polo, for sure then you add in the difference between strong or weak episodes of La Niña/El Nino and it’s pretty much nailed on... wink Be interesting to see how it plays out.
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I've just dumped the NOAA data for AO into a spreadsheet

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/ao/

71 years of data, produces an average monthly anomaly of

March -0.072
April +0.11
May -0.025

While I'm at it

Nov -0.11
Dec -0.12
Jan -0.35
Feb -0.33

Didn't expect to see that. Almost the complete opposite of what I said above re. correlation Blush

Here's another site showing the same relationship.....looks like AO was mostly negative from 1950-1990, and then more positive in the last 30 years



Can also see the overall tendency to be negative Dec-Feb

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Another set of runs that show the jet stream digging SE end of next week. Pretty well supported by ECM and GFS 8-10day mean anomaly, so westerly driven weather with below avg temps for time of year and potentially quite wet.



Although the AAM is rising slowly into month end, it's still in the negative phase in the reliable time frame (as it has been since early June). If the CFS is right with the forecast of +AAM (big ask) then high pressure should re-assert itself in early August.

Chart below shows a strong trade wind (easterly) burst across the equatorial pacific over the coming week or so (purple area bottom of chart). This will likely continue to fuel la Nina conditions in the short term, and also energise westerly winds further north in the mid lattitudes (eg. western europe). At least that's some of the teleconnection theory I'm reading about on other sites.....there's no way to tell if a certain factor was responsible for a certain weather outcome, it's just looking at some background signals that may increase likelihood of x y z.



Right I need to cut the grass and wax my board. Cervinia tomorrow.
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