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The All New 20/21 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@BobinCH, will do Very Happy
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
WePowder getting very excited. Toofy Grin Toofy Grin
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Epic webcams from Northern Italy this morning. Would have given a finger for skiing there today.
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Some lucky people
https://www.cairngormmountain.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/webcams/PtarmiganStation-full.jpg
There were two people in the frame when I shared the link
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EC 06z looking like maximum of about 2.5m of snowfall for Southern Austria and Northern Italy over the next 3-4 days.

It was going over 3 metres of snowfall on the 00z run.

That solid Southern Alps/UK snowfall favouring pattern coming into play!
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The heavy snowfall in East Tirol & Kärnten has closed roads, took down trees and caused power outages.

https://orf.at/stories/3192527/
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Deep-snow vid from northern Italy.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1335211668616437760
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
temps rising from the west end of next week, UKMO friday at 1500m



Pretty poor GFS 12z run today, but other models keep the low pressure a bit longer, maybe until the 12th-13th
8-10 day mean charts show flatter westerly zonal flow than recently....so rising FL's, unsettled. But high pressure likely becoming more influential, next weekend and into mid month
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4 homes have been hit by an avalanche in East Tirol, 29 people have been evacuated from their homes. Approx. 500 homes have lost their electricy supply.

https://kurier.at/amp/chronik/oesterreich/wetter-im-westen-hohe-lawinengefahr-und-hunderte-menschen-ohne-strom/401120646
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Parts of East Tirol are now under the highest avalanche level (Level 5)

https://tirol.orf.at/stories/3079334/
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Lots of nice images showing the situation in northern Italy / Southern Austria https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/winter-snowstorm-forecast-alps-europe-mk/ also clearly illustrates the stark west / east divide with cold air extending down to Morocco and warm air from the Black sea north to the Baltic.

Also a rather unusual pattern of a line of thunderstorms extending north from Malta to Slovenia https://www.blitzortung.org/en/live_lightning_maps.php?map=13 (there is a facility to look back at maps for a particular time frame). Sort of thing usually only seen in the summer half of the year.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
A look back at November anomalies, cleary high pressure dominated


Sep-Oct saw low pressure centred over France so combined with above the final Autumn chart looks like this....slightly above average pressure, largely +NAO


Beyond this weeks snowfall the next interesting timeframe for me is Fri night.....worst of the bunch is GFS with a few runs now showing a milder and probably drier SW flow.


The best case is UKMO, getting enough energy over the ridge on NW-SE track, quite similar to ICON and GEM.


ECM 00z somewhere in the middle.
Could be the last skirmish for this early Dec low pressure cycle, as beyond next weekend (FI) high pressure builds in. Might not happen, or might even end up in favourable places further north.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Spare a thought for Ust-Nera, in Siberia, Eastern Russia.

It hit -50c overnight.

Forecast for next week is around -66c.

Very close to the all-time world record (outside Antarctica) of -69c.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The changing weather does all kinds of cool things. Here is a nice picture of Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds I took yesterday in Eastern France.

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
JamesHJ wrote:
The changing weather does all kinds of cool things. Here is a nice picture of Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds I took yesterday in Eastern France.



Cool picture!!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Wow, thats amazing!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Heard that they were using a black hawk helicopter again to downwash the trees and free them from snow.
https://tirol.orf.at/stories/3079334/

The snow figures are starting to come in after the weekend storms. (click twice on "Berg")
https://www.bergfex.at/oesterreich/schneewerte/

Strange that Sölden has a base of 243cm whereas Obergurgl only has 85cm. Puzzled
On the webcams quite a few resorts have a lot more snow but others look to be wind swept and bare at the peak - maybe this accounts for the difference.
One resort in East Tirol is showing 100cm new snow (180cm total).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
LWD Tirol suggesting 120-180cm of fresh snow widespread across Tirol (both sides of border)

https://avalanche.report/bulletin/latest?region=b06849a3-0734-4177-9048-fa7d18efdafb

More to come to lower levels over next two days again focussed on Austrian Italian border.
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Really should be a thread somewhere for clouds / pic's of the sky

Here's one completely unrelated to the weather outlook, taken in Italy over 28days



Decent looking ensembles for NW alps on the weekend, FL averaging 1500m but will no doubt move around a bit more


8-10 day charts show the change coming into mid Dec, low pressure east atlantic, euro high
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http://youtube.com/v/Y9eWldaBP2s


http://youtube.com/v/lsYeZbWDf2g&list=RDCMUCEHSAhzItg3sMONXAewVRpg&index=5


http://youtube.com/v/6yBvz4QFzos&list=RDCMUCEHSAhzItg3sMONXAewVRpg&index=6
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https://www.bergfex.at/soelden/webcams/c3014/
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Obergurgl also up to 250 cm now so 170 cm new snow in the last few days (90cm new since yesterday).
https://www.bergfex.at/obergurgl-hochgurgl/schneebericht/
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Attention winter sports enthusiasts: old-snow problem in regions with comparativfely little snow

“Right off the bat: an appeal to all winter sports enthusiasts

Quite deliberately we want the focus at the beginning of this blog to be on the regions of North Tirol where there is little snow. That is where winter sports enthusiasts need to be aware of a potential, difficult-to-assess old-snow problem. The old-snow problem is a threat everywhere where prior to the recent snowfall there was already snow on the ground.”

https://lawinen.report/blog/avalanche-warning-service-tirol.blogspot.com/8916753080217360883

“A wealth of snow in the south
Extremely unusual days lie behind us. There has never, ever been so much precipitation in such a short period of time in some towns of Tirol, not in all the history of taking measurements. Moreover, on 8-9 December, more snowfall will be added to it in southern regions. According to ZAMG Weather Service, generally between 40 and 80 cm, with decreasing amounts the further north you go.”
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Southern Austria, near the Italy and Slovenia borders, seeing once-in-a-century snowfall.
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Hintertux reporting a base of 335 cm. Shocked
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East Tirol again


http://youtube.com/v/FQ54vQHuA4k


http://youtube.com/v/AW-dQMZ97Cg


http://youtube.com/v/i4KxbJk9pZ4
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Pretty solid devleopment in the AO prognosis into deep negative terrain today. Would not be a big surprise to see the snowmaggedon for the southern Alps continue towards New Year. Scandi high in the second half of desember also looking more and more likely. Far out though.

Also interesting to see the development in Siberia. So different compared to last year with cold weather covering Siberia. Increasing the likelyhood for cold Europe as well.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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This week's historic snowfall in parts of the Alps is captured beautifully in this timelapse from Campigliodolomiti


https://www.facebook.com/campigliodolomiti/videos/1772500806235446
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You know it makes sense.
Where in Switzerland has had the most snowfall?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Rom77, southeastern Switzerland. Ticino, Southern Graubünden, Uri, Nidwalden, Eastern Bern and very Eastern Valais. Looking at resorts; Andermatt might be the best place at the moment. Topping my own list as the best off piste destination in the world. St Moritz is doing great as well and so is Engelberg. Arosa/Lenzerheide should not be bad as well. If you feel really adventurous, Bosco Gurin or Airolo in Ticino might be great places. Dont know if they are even open, but they sure should have received a lot of snow lately. Bosco Gurin is your fairy-tale swiss mountain village and a lot of fun terrain.
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Can confirm there’s (more than) enough snow to ski tree runs to the valley in Pitztal now. Presumably the same for all the Tyrolean valleys running south into the main alpine ridge, like Ötztal, Stubaital, Kaunertal, etc. The other (south) side of the ridge must be nuts...

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clarky999 wrote:
Can confirm there’s (more than) enough snow to ski tree runs to the valley in Pitztal now. Presumably the same for all the Tyrolean valleys running south into the main alpine ridge, like Ötztal, Stubaital, Kaunertal, etc. The other (south) side of the ridge must be nuts...



That is a great picture!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@BobinCH, +1
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yeah the snow looks good, but personally I try to avoid direct shots of the sun.

As usual there seems to be more feedback on a good photo than a good weather forecast on this thread. No angles here, just wondering where you draw the line.....up to 6 photos per page seems an acceptable level so far (per poster?).

So for a more balanced post, some shots from yesterday





And a look at the weather...
Big storm about to roll into the NW alps, it's going to be pretty windy with up to 40cm above 1500m.
GFS and WRF have consistently called for lower FL's, down to 1100-1200m, but I think Arome is more likely to be nearer with it's 1400m-1600m level

edit - it's just started snowing at 400m....but expected to warm up a little later

Further out, strat winds are reversing from very strong levels, back to average, and maybe below into Jan.
As @Woosh mentioned AO heading into very negative territory, so should keep a lid on temperatures in the mid lattitudes.



Still a disconnect between strat and trop vortex winds. Quite a complicated chart this, but elevation is effectively on the left axis, and lattitude below.
You can see the blue negative wind anomalies (-10 meters per second) in the bottom right-hand corner, meaning we have net easterly winds in the northern hemisphere, stretching from ground level up to about 15km into the sky (100hpa).
Above that you can see the very strong westerly strat winds of +40 m/s, which are weakening.



So all it means is the most favourable conditions for snow and cold are already with us in the troposphere (we don't need an SSW to filter down). And looking further into Jan, strat winds are forecast to weaken, so that can only help with long term cold prospects I'd imagine.
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polo wrote:

As usual there seems to be more feedback on a good photo than a good weather forecast on this thread. No angles here, just wondering where you draw the line.


I think we've been over this (at your instigation) at least once a season over the past few years. My take has always been, this isn't the place for detailed trip reports, but verification of forecasts is important, and makes it easier to build up a picture of how the snow is in various places. Forecasting metres of snow is great, but as they say, the proof is in the pudding - and on a ski forum the pudding is ski conditions. In this case in an area that hasn't been the main focus of the forecasts lately, yet is likely to be the next place to open up for ski holidays after Switzerland.

Personally I'd absolutely be interested to see more of your photos. Looks like you have good powder conditions and snow to the valley. Including location would make that information more useful though!

----

Strong föhn today, and a lot of snow moving around the Brenner Pass. Watch out for windslabs...
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@polo, speaking for myself (but hasten a guess not unique) my main interest in this thread is when (and where) is it going to snow and how much. All the technical details go over my head. So seeing the results in the Tirol that we have heard so much about recently (in @Clarky999’s photo) is of interest, and of course the fact that it is a cracking photo, more so.
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@clarky999, couldn't agree more. However, might I be so bold as to point out that the proof isn't actually in the pudding; rather the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Nice picture.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Some aerial shots that I snapped this afternoon passing over the Austrian Alps


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clarky999 wrote:
polo wrote:

As usual there seems to be more feedback on a good photo than a good weather forecast on this thread. No angles here, just wondering where you draw the line.


I think we've been over this (at your instigation) at least once a season over the past few years. My take has always been, this isn't the place for detailed trip reports, but verification of forecasts is important, and makes it easier to build up a picture of how the snow is in various places. Forecasting metres of snow is great, but as they say, the proof is in the pudding - and on a ski forum the pudding is ski conditions. In this case in an area that hasn't been the main focus of the forecasts lately, yet is likely to be the next place to open up for ski holidays after Switzerland.

Personally I'd absolutely be interested to see more of your photos. Looks like you have good powder conditions and snow to the valley. Including location would make that information more useful though!

----



A picture paints a 1000 words.

Both are good.

* Photo = today's weather
* Forecast = tomorrow's weather
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South Austria got puke.

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