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The All New 20/21 Weather Outlook Thread

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@nozawaonsen, woot woot snowHead
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Some early indications that the upcoming winter season is maybe going to be rather different weatherwise than last https://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/10-15-day-forecast-europe-united-states-fa/
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Austrian weather forecast to become colder later this week with snow expected higher up.
https://www.bergfex.at/kitzsteinhorn-kaprun/wetter/berg/
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50cm to 1500m on Saturday. Lifts still open for the Summer season. Wonder if they’ll let us on with skis!
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@munich_irish, am not sure about the link to the upcoming winter? The article focuses on the next 2 weeks, and even there the second week looks very uncertain to me. Think the October chart looks similar to last year, with high pressure over most of europe.
The CFS 3-4 week charts are interesting to keep an eye for a trend and agreement with other mid range models, like EC 46 day, JMA weekly. Likewise the monthly CFS charts, which can be viewed here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php

.....but it's hard to draw solid conclusions from them as they move around a lot. Here's today's look at December for example, cold in the east under some northern blocking. The CFS monthly trends have been showing a lot of high pressure for this winter, sometimes to the far north over Greenland and Norway, but often sinking into mainland europe as well......so I like some of them and just ignore the rubbish runs Smile



Back in the now, ECM started easing off on the depth of the weekend trough a few days ago and most other models have followed. Still locked into a sharp and narrow plunge on the weekend with those vertical running isobars.



Temp anomalies of -8c for the alps and +12c up in Finland due to the very strong blocking high over NW Russia.

Snowfall numbers have reduced (per GFS especially), I'd be happy with 20cm at 1500m, maybe 40cm above 2200m in the NW.
But the snowfall variance is still considerable across the models. You can easily flick thru 6 model views of snowfall to sunday on this link

https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/gbr/switzerland/snow-depth/20200927-0000z.html

UKMO for example

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@polo, there are hints of -NAO and a LaNina which (assuming it turns out that sort of way) would be very different to last year. Also the conditions above the arctic appear to be different too. None of this necessarily equals cold & snowy but more hopeful than what we saw 9 months ago. Agree that late September snow is not unusual and has no impact on what will come later.
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Sub zero at times and snow showers on the Ben over the next 5 days. Cool
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This looks like bad news for the Pyrenees at least. No idea if this forecast is ever accurate though ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-22/europe-s-weather-is-forecast-to-buck-the-recent-warming-trend?sref=kKj7hWAI
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Still looking good for a September ski tour. Would be a first for me...
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@BobinCH, yep looking pretty good. Details vary from model to model of course, but shaping up for a decent early fall! Always nice to get some cheeky skiing in in September.



And of course this locks in a decent season... Wink
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@nozawaonsen,
Quote:

And of course this locks in a decent season...

Thanks for sorting the snow out for the season, that just leaves that other issue (the we don't talk about on this thread) to sort out - any volunteers for fixing that one? Smile
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@BobinCH, yep looking pretty good. Details vary from model to model of course, but shaping up for a decent early fall! Always nice to get some cheeky skiing in in September.

And of course this locks in a decent season... Wink


every year I think I must note down the "first decent non glacial snowfall", the date when it all melts, and when the first snow that hangs around falls!


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Wed 23-09-20 13:25; edited 1 time in total
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@kitenski, pretty common to get a brief cold blast in second half of September by my reckon-o-meter. Could probably look back at Septembers in this thread over last few years if you were really scratching around for something to do!
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@kitenski, pretty common to get a brief cold blast in second half of September by my reckon-o-meter. Could probably look back at Septembers in this thread over last few years if you were really scratching around for something to do!


Snow in October is relatively common but I don’t recall a decent dump in September? I’ve only skied once at end October, and that was on the Saas Fee glacier so up at 3000m.
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Hut guardian from Tierberglihütte posted her local forecast on fb, they are heading down to the valley.
IF all the forecast snow arrives they will receive......228cm.
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Last year Titlis was open on Oct 12th weekend. Hopefully manage the same this year.
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@BobinCH, I think a “brief cold blast” is pretty common, whether that’s the same as a “decent dump” may depend on how you are counting! Smile

Looking at last September there were a couple of snowfalls in September on the glaciers, then a larger one in early October. Though I was otherwise occupied in Japan at the time! I can certainly remember September hiking being complicated by brief snowy spells as well as cheeky trips to Hintertux over the last few years. But no dispute that heavier snowfall is more often in October.
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Snow-forecast has historical data back to 2007, I imagine other resorts are better but there is nothing showing for Les Gets in Septembers for the last 12 years at 1600m

https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Les-Gets/history

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@polo, well 1600m would be pretty low for September, though that said I can certainly remember waking up in Lech in September surrounded by snow at 1500m. More likely to have short periods of coverage above 2000m at this time of year.

For example see this from 06 September last year.

nozawaonsen wrote:



Palinkopf

First properly cold weather of autumn making itself felt over the next few days.

Snowline briefly down to 1800m on Swiss Austrian border overnight.

clarky999 Has some nice shots of Stubai glacier here.

https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=148503&highlight=

Hintertux should see the snowline below 2000m at times from tomorrow through Monday with 30-40cm of snowfall at the top.

And some reports suggesting a the snowline could drop to 1500m.

https://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Temperatursturz-Jetzt-kommt-Schnee/396030133

Still early autumn mind you so more warm weather to come, but enough to start to make me think about the glaciers anyway.


Subsequent forecasts at the time suggested the snowline might fall to 1000m. Though as I said I was in Tokyo at the time.

I have a feeling (?) that it may be more common at the eastern end of the Alps.
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@nozawaonsen, yep azores is more likely to influence western end I guess in autumn, and anywhere further in towards the main ridge line no doubt helps as well. Wouldn't be surprised if some local records are broken around here though for September if the forecasts come good.

Looking further out, anomaly charts are consistently showing a deep trough over western europe into early Oct.....might be a good call by the severe weather guys and others




But there is a bump of high pressure drifting in next week as well.....so the atlantic is going to have to steam roll over that first to continue the unsettled theme. Even if it does, it may come in too far west with a warmer W/SW flow....so still unclear as expected at that range. AAM has belately turned down into early Oct as well.



And if you like squiggly lines, well GFS has gotten a whole lot more colourful with 10 new ensemble members bringing the total line-fest to 32 (plus the mean).

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Champery snow warning on meteo suisse
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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La Rosière at 1850m.



Not surprisingly temperatures look like rising at least 10C by start of October so this is clearly just an amuse bouche rather than anything more substantial!
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https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html#avalanchedanger

Weather outlook through Saturday, 26 September
Skies will be heavily overcast for the most part. On Thursday afternoon, precipitation is expected to set in over widespread areas. The precipitation will be intensive on Thursday night, particularly in the southern and eastern regions, and the snowfall level will lie at approximately 3000 m. Starting at Friday midday, the precipitation will shift to the typical northern barrier cloud regions. The snowfall level will descend from 2500 m down to 1500 m on Friday morning; subsequently on Saturday, down to nearly 1000 m. Winds on Friday morning will be southwesterly, subsequently shifting to northwesterly. At 2000 m, winds will be blowing at strong velocity, in high alpine regions at storm strength. In the central sector of the southern flank of the Alps, a strong-velocity northerly wind will be blowing starting on Friday. On Saturday, bright intervals are anticipated there. Between Thursday evening and Saturday evening above approximately 2500 m, the following amounts of fresh snow are expected:
furthermost western part of Lower Valais, northern flank of the Alps from the eastern Bernese Oberland as far as the Glarus Alps: 70 to 100 cm;
remaining parts of Valais not including valleys of Visp, remaining sectors of the northern flank of the Alps, Gotthard region, Grisons not including southern valleys: 40 to 70 cm;
valleys of Visp, northern Ticino not including Gotthard region, southern valleys of Grisons: 20 to 40 cm;
central Ticino and Sotto Ceneri: only a few centimetres;
Jura: 5 to 15 cm above 1000 m.
At 2000 m, approximately two thirds, at 1500 m approximately one third of the predicted amounts of snow can be expected to remain on the ground
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@BobinCH, nice!
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My Instagram feed this morning had a couple of very winters looking vistas in T3V. Only another 3 months to go... sigh.
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28 Sep 2007, 1400 meters, Chartreuse, first skiable snow that season



22 Sep 2015, Belledonne

https://photos.app.goo.gl/LUqMeZavUnCJhnNZ7

August 31 2012

https://photos.app.goo.gl/3kqCLSFJpMzLggZGA
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Some snowy images from around the alps plus a video report from a snowy St Christoph https://www.wetteronline.de/fotostrecken/2020-09-25-aj?galleryIndex=4
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Cam on the link below showing snow in the Valley in Serre Chevalier!

Locals on WhatsApp can't recall ever seeing a snow-fall like that in September.

Last year our Ski Touring season started Nov 7th and just carried on, till lockdown that is / was

We're not planning on being back out till November or thereabouts as obviously this snow will not last, famous last words
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Just looking back over last few years at brief cold blasts (the BCB index to the cognoscenti).

As well as 06 September 2019, there was (short lived) snowfall on 26 August 2018 down to 800-900m in Austria.

https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=138072&start=160

Whilst in 2017 on 01 September down to 1600-1800m in Austria and Switzerland.

https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=132215&start=160
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Just looking back over last few years at brief cold blasts (the BCB index to the cognoscenti).

As well as 06 September 2019


9th September 2019



Tignes, 14 September 2017



la plagne 31 August 2012 (see my photo above as well)

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I think we saw some new snow drifts on the southern Cairngorms as we pedalled Past yesterday.
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I found the same article as davidof.....edit note how similar the metrociel chart from 1998 is to the current synoptic chart below

https://www.meteo-villes.com/actualites/neige-en-montagne-en-septembre-un-phenomene-peu-commun-25-septembre-2020.html

While all this nostalgia is interesting, am not sure what the angle is.....occasional snow at altitude in august happens...and it snows low down somewhere in the east quite early at times.

But this particular cold blast has been record breaking in some places too. Certainly in PdS none of the 20+year locals can recall snow settling at 1100m in September. The article above does mention Sep snowfall somewhere in the french alps at 800m in 1998, and 600m in 1931. Global temperatures have increased a lot since then, so makes it all the more remarkable in my view.

Weather-to-ski reckon nearby Crans Montana has just set a September record of 25cm at 1500m.
https://www.weathertoski.co.uk/weather-snow/

And another expert says more snow fell this time in France than in 2007.
https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Remarkable-early-snowfall-in-French-mountain-ranges-closes-some-roads

Regarding the outlook, maybe the warm up this week should be called a 'brief warm blast' Madeye-Smiley before the next depression rolls into NW europe over the weekend.



It doesn't look as cold as the one just gone, with flow more SW than NW, I expect the snowline will be a good bit higher. But we are still looking at below average temperatures, over at least a 2 week period. Here's GFS view to Oct 5th



Even further out, AAM is set to rise again into mid Oct (from a low around Oct 1-3), so I'd expect high pressure to become more dominant over the western end.
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@polo, why do you assume there is an “angle?” It was simply chatting about early snow.
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@nozawaonsen, maybe I missed the context of some comments / photo's.....I just read it like some people were getting excited about record breaking or decent levels of snow, while other posts pointed towards different areas that also had snow, in previous years and at different altitudes.

So if this was just a brief/regular cold blast, I'd be surprised to see so many 'outlook' posts referring to exceptional weather in the past. But now that we know that this was an extremely rare snowy blast, it does make sense to look back and compare. I would say this event is also noteworthy for how widespread the coverage was across pretty much the whole of the alps.
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Any ideas why my link isn’t updating any more since last week?

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@BobinCH, same here, love the wiggles.
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polo wrote:
Certainly in PdS none of the 20+year locals can recall snow settling at 1100m in September. .


then again, most of the PdS locals can't remember where they parked their car before they went into the bar a few hours ago
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GFS quite keen on another week of colder temperatures and snow (perhaps not to 1100m) from this weekend, particularly for the western Alps. (I'm not sure how to embed a chart in this post!)


Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Tue 29-09-20 16:37; edited 2 times in total
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Blimey, looks like another Saturday morning breaking trail...
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denfinella wrote:
GFS quite keen on another week of colder temperatures and snow (perhaps not to 1100m) from this weekend, particularly for the western Alps. (I'm not sure how to embed a chart in this post!)


If it’s an image file - .png/.jpg etc just use the [img][/img] tags around it to embed the image
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