 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Scarlet, I’ve struggled to understand the requirements in France and Austria for masks, as any benefit would seem to be negligible and risks diverting stocks from where they are really needed and useful. The reusable ones seem to be a feel good measure rather than anything actually useful. In terms of measures that reduce / control the rate of infection it seems very low down and therefore right to focus on measures with a bigger impact.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Gämsbock, Yes, a feel good measure for those in positions of power 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Gämsbock, Well said!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Scarlet, @Gämsbock, It's called Contagion Theatre. Analogous to Security Theatre in airports. In all regards equivalent.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Re masks for the public, I think the main point is to reduce the likelihood of the wearer infecting anyone else - i.e. to catch droplets from outgoing coughs / sneezes, not incoming - rather than the protect the wearer. For this, I think any sort of covering could be beneficial
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@viv, wouldn’t it just be more effective if those coughing/sneezing stayed home? Those actively spreading are still going to do so (e.g. by touching stuff) and it’s a pointless exercise for those who aren’t coughing / sneezing? The “protection” afforded by homemade masks seems to offer a false sense of security and encourage people who shouldn’t be going out to think it’s ok to do so.
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@Scarlet, @Gämsbock, "Something must be done." "This is something." "Perfect, we'll do that then." The Politician's syllogism.
When the Germans and Swiss start wearing masks is the time to consider it. Until then... I went to the vet a fortnight ago (I had to wait in the street whilst I passed the cat (in a cardboard box) through the door to him). He had a mask on. That mask kept slipping down below his nose, so he kept on pushing it back up with his hands. If a medically-trained person is so capable of completely negating the point of wearing on (indeed, making it worse than not wearing one) what hope.
Again, @Scarlet, gloves in supermarkets. What protection do they offer? The virus is not excreted by the skin of the worker. I see people driving in their own cars, with masks and gloves on and wonder 'why?'
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@viv, surely far better is to develop a reliable immunological test and have "passports"?
Surely someone has thought of that? Oh, wait...
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@James the Last, Gloves, well I guess they cover the snotty hands of the worker who sneezed into them immediately before putting their mask on.
Outside of government, I don't think there's a huge level of support. Many people like delivery drivers who seem to have to wear them in certain situations, can be found with a mask dangling around their neck 
@under a new name, I'm not sure immunity passports are a great idea either – corona party anyone?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Scarlet, I don't think they are either, although they had been talked about.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Gämsbock wrote: |
| @viv, wouldn’t it just be more effective if those coughing/sneezing stayed home? Those actively spreading are still going to do so (e.g. by touching stuff) and it’s a pointless exercise for those who aren’t coughing / sneezing? The “protection” afforded by homemade masks seems to offer a false sense of security and encourage people who shouldn’t be going out to think it’s ok to do so. |
QED. It seems completely insane, but I don't suppose that will stop anyone. I think it means we all have to wear masks all the time for the rest of our lives because someone didn't really understand anything.
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| Gämsbock wrote: |
| @viv, wouldn’t it just be more effective if those coughing/sneezing stayed home? Those actively spreading are still going to do so (e.g. by touching stuff) and it’s a pointless exercise for those who aren’t coughing / sneezing? |
Have you been living under a rock this whole time?
Patients become infectious 2-3 days BEFORE they show symptoms!!!
When you ignore science, everything becomes a conspiracy.
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You know it makes sense.
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| abc wrote: |
| Gämsbock wrote: |
| @viv, wouldn’t it just be more effective if those coughing/sneezing stayed home? Those actively spreading are still going to do so (e.g. by touching stuff) and it’s a pointless exercise for those who aren’t coughing / sneezing? |
Have you been living under a rock this whole time?
Patients become infectious 2-3 days BEFORE they show symptoms!!!
When you ignore science, everything becomes a conspiracy. |
Did you actually read my posts? I never said there was a conspiracy. I am not ignoring “the science”. Nor did I say there was no benefit if everyone wore them correctly. I did say there weren’t enough masks for everyone to wear them correctly all the time, and that the benefit appeared to be negligible even if there were. Meanwhile everyone trying to wear them all the time runs down the stocks and means there aren’t enough available for the people and situations that most warrant them.
Sure, people are infectious before they show symptoms, but by the time they are coughing and sneezing they are by definition not asymptotic.
Just a note - This isn’t a general COVID thread. It’s specifically about Switzerland, where I live. Here the government have explicitly said it’s not mandated for the general population as a default position. The government here actually appears to be sensible and science led, and I’m therefore more than happy to follow their requirements and recommendations.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I take back the conspiracy comment. I was lumping you in with others who suggest conspiracy theory. My apologise.
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but by the time they are coughing and sneezing they are by definition not asymptotic
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There's quite a bit of evidence suggesting they spray virus WITHOUT sneezing/coughing. Even normal conversation, in close proximity, were strongly suspected to be responsible for transmission according to some of the early contact tracing results.
I do agree with your point proper mask will be more useful. But I'm not aware of any study to the "complete ineffectiveness" of home made mask either.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| James the Last wrote: |
| . I see people driving in their own cars, with masks and gloves on and wonder 'why?' |
Maybe it goes to the point of Brits being stupid relative to the Swiss so I'll continue the digression. I was highly amused by the first person I saw driving a car in marigolds and a sanding mask which was the Saturday before lockdown. Unless his passenger was active with symptoms or possibly he was an Uber/black mkt minicab, I could only see that he had fundmentally misunderstood the purpose of wearing gloves in external environments and not cross contaminating.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
The government here actually appears to be sensible and science led
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@Gämsbock, and they tend to think before acting and usually need a pretty compelling reason to act before doing (or saying) anything at all (all of which IMHO are excellent attributes).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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A friend of mine here in ZH said it was nice to be able to trust the government. She’s American (recently got a CH passport). I had to agree with her.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Nadenoodlee wrote: |
| .... it was nice to be able to trust the government. |
I'm on the swiss healthcare system....but haven't drunk that much koolaid.
Just one example that I am familiar with but did you trust the government for example when they said they would peg the EUR/CHF at 1.20?
Dec 14 “The SNB will continue to enforce the minimum exchange rate of 1.20 with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities to this end.”. They repeated this propaganda non stop for 3 years, wasting 50-100 billion francs in the process.
Currently 1.05. They talk a good game, like all governments
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Sometimes, @polo, reality...
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@polo, exchange rate doesn’t keep me awake at night like potentially losing loved ones to Covid 19
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| Nadenoodlee wrote: |
| @polo, exchange rate doesn’t keep me awake at night like potentially losing loved ones to Covid 19 |
Ditto. It's just money.
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Some people trust government more than others, that's fine. And Swiss is one of the most trusted gov's in the world, something like 75% of their people vs only 20% in USA.
I'm not in the high trust camp...I try do my own research, whether it's monetary policy or health policy.
Here's a site I use to balance out all the hysteria in the media, the Swiss Propaganda Research group covers all sorts of fake news, but link below is just their data on the 'Rona. All referenced and linked work for those curious.
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
Intersting graph that hasn't been quoted in the general media shows little difference between pre and post lockdown.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@polo, thanks the info in that link (3,4,5) is pretty reassuring
3) 50% to 80% of test-positive individuals remain symptom-free. Even among the 70 to 79 year old persons about 60% remain symptom-free, many more show only mild symptoms.
4) The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years and only about 1% of the deceased had no serious previous illnesses. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality.
5) Many media reports of young and healthy people dying from Covid19 have proven to be false upon closer inspection. Many of these people either did not die from Covid19 or they in fact had serious preconditions (such as undiagnosed leukaemia).
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“ Propaganda Research group ”
What exactly is that?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@abc, you care to share a reference to "evidence suggesting they spray virus WITHOUT sneezing/coughing"?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Engelberg, how else do asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic patients transmit it to others? Kissing?
Or are you questioning pre-symptomatic patients can/do transmit?
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| BobinCH wrote: |
@polo, thanks the info in that link (3,4,5) is pretty reassuring
3) 50% to 80% of test-positive individuals remain symptom-free. Even among the 70 to 79 year old persons about 60% remain symptom-free, many more show only mild symptoms.
4) The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years and only about 1% of the deceased had no serious previous illnesses. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality.
5) Many media reports of young and healthy people dying from Covid19 have proven to be false upon closer inspection. Many of these people either did not die from Covid19 or they in fact had serious preconditions (such as undiagnosed leukaemia). |
I think a lot of that information is cherry picked to paint a picture, rather than taking an objective look at the science.
For instance the age range and lack of disease quoted in dead patients both reflect information very early in the outbreak as younger people and people without other diseases take longer to die. There are many other points that are taken out of context or are a single Mavericks opinion.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@T Bar, those points at the top (original article) are clearly dated March 14th, so you are correct. If you scroll down though you get tons of information with each update posted every few days.
Way too much to process or discuss on a ski forum for me. It's just an alternative collection of data compared to what we're fed on the main news all day....who knows which scientists / mavericks / groups are more right.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@polo,
Personally I find the main stream scientists usually have sensible views if you can access them and their papers directly rather than through the media. A lot of them are emphasising that we still don't know a lot about the virus and what will happen in the future rather than trying to either give false reassurance or false gloom mongering.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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There is certainly a problem in the UK news media that I heard being raised on a podcast. The majority of journos come from an arts or social sciences background rather than hard science or maths. This may make them better communicators or able to simplify ideas or facts into chunks they and hence the audience might understand but it comes at the price of losing important detail, caveats and nuance. Add that to that the media drive to reach conclusions where most experienced scientists recognise that understanding ebbs and flows and a complete picture is only built on substantial body of evidence in repeatable/ repeated cirumstances and you end up with a confusing flip flop of news presented on a daily basis.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Engelberg, sorry, I’m too lazy to bother.
As you said, this is an internet forum, not a scientific meeting. No one is under any obligation to do anything. Only those those find any value in it do so, either for entertainment or for understanding & knowledge. As I do not foresee much useful information coming from you, I find little motivation to entertain your question.
It’s not my job to substantiate any claims, even those I’ve seen evidence in the past.
If I find it entertains me, I would be more motivated to do the lookup. But in this case, it doesn’t interest me.
So, you can go digging for evidence to disprove it, in which case you may even find evidence to support it.
Besides, you didn’t answer whether your question was about how it’s transmitted, or you’re questioning asymptomatic patients can transmit the virus at all?
So I’m even less motivated to spend time finding evidence for the wrong question. 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| T Bar wrote: |
I think a lot of that information is cherry picked to paint a picture, rather than taking an objective look at the science. |
I’m just curious what this “propaganda research group” is that could explain the “cherry-picking”.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| abc wrote: |
Patients become infectious 2-3 days BEFORE they show symptoms!!!
When you ignore science, everything becomes a conspiracy. |
I think if you have such an important point to make that you feel you have to shout it in red at the entire internet then it might be courteous to tell us where you got the information from. I have read articles suggesting that you don’t become infectious until you are symptomatic, and if you’re not coughing even then you’re probably not spreading the virus. But as probably nobody is deliberately going to infect somebody with a disease as allegedly potentially nasty as this, it seems doubtful it would be ethical to do the research.
Anyway, I doubt the science can tell us much equivocally at this stage, so I’m not going to shout back at you!
Anybody looked at the Covid-19 tracker app results? https://covid.joinzoe.com/data If you assume that people are symptomatic for five days (any more than that and they’re heading to hospital, and the hospitalised cases are not enough to be material), and add up the number of cases on
29 March (1.6m) 3/4 (1.6m) 8/4 (1.1m) 13/4 (0.8m) plus extrapolate back for 24 March (1.2m) total 6.3m, and then assume 50% are asymptomatic, then that suggests 20% of the population have had it so we are possibly a third of the way to herd immunity. If 70% are asymptomatic then we’re possibly about half way there.
As it probably has hit the poor (living in large households and not having escaped to their second homes in the country) harder than the rich (hence IMO the apparent susceptibility of ethnic minorities to the disease) the average SnowHead is presumably less likely than average to have had it.
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Assume when the kids go back to school in May it will spread pretty quickly amongst families and then through offices. This must be expected with the phasing designed to manage the resulting medical burden. It seems wherever restrictions are relaxed increased infection rates are the predictable result
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| BobinCH wrote: |
| Assume when the kids go back to school in May it will spread pretty quickly amongst families and then through offices. This must be expected with the phasing designed to manage the resulting medical burden. It seems wherever restrictions are relaxed increased infection rates are the predictable result |
@BobinCH, from what I’ve understood that’s exactly the plan. They know they aren’t going to eliminate it (particularly with the number of cross-border workers) and can’t keep the lockdown till a vaccine is available. I listened to a podcast on NZZ last week with an epidemiologist from Uni Bern that pretty much summed it up as: reduce R to (ideally well) below 1 so that the burden on health services is managable and everyone can access the care they need, and crucially that normal medical services can resume. He said (a week ago now) that R was at 0.5 with a confidence interval 0.3-0.7 - but that they wanted it lower before relaxing so that they could feel really confident that it wouldn’t go above 1 when they relaxed the measures. Ideally get back to a point where contract tracing is possible. Relax the measures gradually and check that R is still below 1 and tighten again if necessary.
The distribution is pretty encouraging:
https://covid-19-schweiz.bagapps.ch/fr-1.html
I think there’s still a strong encouragement for those who can work from home to do so. I’ve been at home for the last 5 weeks and officially until the end of April but I’m fully expecting that to extended at least another month. Even if they let us go back I think at least 50% in my building are cross-border so aren’t likely to get in any time soon.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Has anything been said about offices? I have an office job where I can reasonably work from home, so am wondering if I’m going to be encouraged to do so effectively indefinitely.
Or if they’re planning to open museums in June, is it a fair assumption they’ll say office workers can go back at that point too?
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@Steve77, our office says a WFH for another two months at least and then phasing. I doubt will we ever go back to the previous model, which suits me just fine as I hated having to find a bloomin desk
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FAQ
You wrote "there's quite a bit of evidence suggesting they ("asymptomatic people") spray virus WITHOUT sneezing/coughing", so I asked if you could share a reference (supporting evidence) behind what you write... If you do not have it, it is OK, it is just an internet forum 
