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Swiss Covid-19 exit strategy

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@skimastaaah, what I have to say would only make sense to audience outside of the US.

You can't count on the US to be the "leader" on everything!

In the past, the US had seen to it that "rising water floats all boats". And generosity would be repaid in increased demand for American made goods and services over a long term. That cause-consequence equation had been broken. And broken for quite some time now.

So it's no surprise the US had shied away from some of its "leadership" role. Even before Trump. It's just now he made it his administration's priority.

Even if there's a change of president come November, that trend of the US government gradually abdicating its leadership role will only slow down but not necessarily reverse. Reality being, the US may still be the largest economy of the world, it's not as dominant as what it once was.

Private wealth such as Gate's foundation may pick up some of the slack. But can't possibly replace the government effort. So the world has to find its way to help each other without expecting the US always be the leader in such effort. Unless you want the Chinese or Russian to be the next "world leader".

Your rich uncle is getting old and sickly. If you still want prosperity of the family business, you need to pick up some of the slack. Or there might not be much left when it's all over.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
abc wrote:
Quote:
what you want to be seeing is a very low positive rate on tests, because its indicative of very widespread testing.

It’s so blindingly obvious.

I’m shocked nobody is paying much attention on the ratio of positive/all tests.

A high positive ratio is indicative of one of the two:

1) Not testing enough
2) High infection in the population.

Neither are good numbers.


Before the UK came up with their strategy of not testing, there was actually a lot of negative tests.
Testing criteria & strategy changed. However, early on when they was testing anyone with symptoms, there was around a 90% negative tests.
This was used with a tracking method, however, once the tracking method failed because so many people had the virus could not be tracked from where they became infected, the whole strategy changed.

I think the strategy now will be for large scale testing to see who has had the virus. Testing still costs money. lot of wasted money if 90% of tests negative because someone with a hangover headache thinks they may have the nasty virus.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
skimastaaah wrote:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

shows NY deaths at 20 000 out of total US cases of 50 000

Sadly @abc, please tell Mr Trump that your degree in Science has currency to impact on his lack of vision …..

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/sadness-and-disbelief-from-a-world-missing-american-leadership/ar-BB135rGh?ocid=spartandhp


Yet a random antibody test is showing as many 20% is NY City have the antibodies. NY City population is around the same as Switzerland of 8.5m
NYC population density is 26,000 per Sqm
Switzerland is less than 600 per Sqm

Trying to compare testing episodes to deaths is not an accurate reflection.
a Family of 4 all living in a single household are showing symptoms. Do you test all 4 or just 1? You only have a limited amount of testing kit, chemicals, testing capacity, etc. Not enough to test everyone who may need testing that day.

Trying to compare countries to each other will also give an inaccurate picture, since every country is different.
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Switzerland's data trends certainly suggest Covid-19 is on the decline ….. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/

A cautionary and phased easing of lockdown looks to be a reasonable start. A lot of other countries will just be watching how they fare.
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Quote:

Before the UK came up with their strategy of not testing, there was actually a lot of negative tests.
Testing criteria & strategy changed. However, early on when they was testing anyone with symptoms, there was around a 90% negative tests.

"Early on", is it possible there really wasn't that many cases?

Look at several states in the US, California and Washington, which have quite many cases. They all have 90% negative rate. How come? But look closely, many of their infected are from nursing homes. Once taken those out, infection number were less alarming. Antibody "sampling" in Santa Clara county (the county south of San Francisco, where a lot of Chinese immigrants live) showed only 5% of population may already had it. Not a lot for a "hot zone".

But look at NY city. Its positive rate at the peak of the outbreak was 50% Shocked Meaning if you have symptom enough to want to go to a hospital, you're 50/50 infected!

Now the antibody sampling is showing 21% of people already had it! Shocked

Now, there's a lot of doubt in the accuracy of the antibody test. So may be reality is very different. But IF the antibody test are accurate, it confirms a high positive rate is a good indication of high infection rate, independent of the shear number of cases!

Anyway, that was my hunch. I'll wait to see if more antibody test confirms the findings (and my hunch). snowHead
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Today's the day for the first stage of the exit strategy. Hairdressers can open, along with DIY stores, and hospitals can perform non-urgent procedures. Our stats (Canton Berne, pop 1m) for the last 24 hours are 8 new cases, and no deaths.

We don’t have any DIY shops in Wengen, but Mrs t_m had a 9am appointment with her hairdresser.

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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@telford_mike, she doesn't look as though she needs a haircut at all...brave?. I''m cutting my own and have no intention of going to the hairdresser any time soon even if we can.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@holidayloverxx, that was the 'before' photo. 150chf later, she felt she looked a lot better. Who am I to argue?
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@telford_mike, indeed Laughing
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I have a couple of observations:

I don’t understand why mass testing is a good use of resources. My understanding is that there isn’t yet a reliable specific antibody test. If someone is ill, they will get treatment when they may be tested if appropriate.

Nobody in this thread seems to be considering deaths resulting from the lockdown. It is generally understood that there is a positive correlation between health and wealth. Extending the lockdown is likely to exacerbate the resultant recession and its concurrent decrease in overall population health. I think it reasonable to surmise a reduction in the health of the population will lead to an increase in premature deaths.
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@Gordyjh,
Quote:
there isn’t yet a reliable specific antibody test

AIUI, I think there are lab based ones, just not yet home based DIY ones. Also AIUI, large scale antibody testing is really only actively useful if you are going to try "immunity passports", but will be very useful to determine overall infection and hence any acquired immunity.

I think "Mass" infection testing becomes part of controlled, specific quarantine.

Re your third paragraph, that has been much discussed on the "health and welfare" threads (Or maybe the UK govt one (or both (I think (it's hard to keep up)))).

@telford_mike, good lord, I had forgotten what Mrs U paid for a haircut (not that teh Ladies ever just have "haircuts"). There has to be a FR:CH hairdressing arb opportunity in there somehow (other than French stylists working cross-border).
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
telford_mike wrote:
@holidayloverxx, that was the 'before' photo. 150chf later, she felt she looked a lot better. Who am I to argue?


£124 for a haircut? Wow.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Doesn't sound too bad, it is Switzerland. Mine costs €120. It would be similar in Leeds city centre, or considerably more in London.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
^^^ one of the benefits of the lockdown!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
achilles wrote:
£124 for a haircut?
Shocked
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Sounds cheap for Switzerland!

Doesn’t seem to be any reluctance to go back to hairdressers and beauty salons here. Most of them seem to be working overtime and fully booked for weeks.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
BobinCH wrote:
^^^ one of the benefits of the lockdown!


More like one of the benefits of being bald! (like me) Very Happy
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I would have thought hairdressers would be on a par with cruse ships in their petri dish nature. Very hard to maintain distancing.
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Assume hairdressers wearing masks and gloves?

We’ve got pretty good with the clippers so not sure we’ll be going back (boys) but the girls will be lined up after 6 weeks of split ends!
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@ringingmaster, both hairdresser and client have to wear a mask at the moment. Apparently key is that they only see one person at at time and have a record of everyone they have seen so contact tracing is relatively easier compared to random contacts.

Running at less than 5 cases a day for the last 2 weeks in a city of 200k, with most days 1-2 and several zeros and contact tracing back in place... it hardly feels like running the gauntlet to go to the hairdresser. Clearly most of the local population are if a similar mind.
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@BobinCH, 6 weeks is nothing! I hadn’t been for 3.5 months!
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@Gämsbock, Yep, something similar is going on here, along with mandatory face shields for “beauty” procedures (eyebrows etc.). If I go to mine midweek like I'm doing next week, there's usually only the two of us there anyway. It hardly feels like a big risk. I'll be most bothered about the lack of complimentary coffee Confused
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Gämsbock, If 5 cases a day are being recorded, there will still be hundreds of asymptomatic people who are spreading.

@Scarlet, The risk is not that there are only two of you in the room. The risk is that one of those two will have had close contact with many random (if recorded) people a day.
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I guess I am skeptical because my partner works with COVID patients, and the hospital she works at has just had the first patient (out of 100's) who survived from ICU. And there is a strong representation of under 40's healthy people in there.


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Wed 29-04-20 9:44; edited 1 time in total
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@ringingmaster, Not sure about hundreds given the amount of testing they are doing here. R is well below 1 which is the bench mark for getting the economy running again. There’s no attempt or pretence that it’s going to be eliminated here. The key is is to avoid exponential growth so that the healthcare system can be sure to cope.
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@ringingmaster, also note that here at least, many industries have continued exactly as before (all maintenance, construction, public services, movers for example) with way less stress on social distancing than I read is expected in the UK and case numbers have continued to drop.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@ringingmaster, Local infection rate is tiny, procedures will be followed to minimise risk, I'm in the lowest adult risk group and I'm not prepared to wait 18 months for a haircut. I'm probably more likely to be hit by a bus on my way there anyway.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
What scarlet said.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Scarlet, @Gämsbock, Good luck. Stay Safe. Very Happy
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Did the app idea move ahead? It sounded like a plan but obviously relies on people being traceable.

Also 150chf is a bargain
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Gämsbock wrote:
@mountainaddict, I'd disagree with "rather a lot" - and I don't believe there have been *any* here in CH - but anyway, there are risks everywhere in life. People also die cycling on the roads (I cycle everywhere around town), in avalanches (I ski off piste, and without a guide...) to name just two. If you want to cocoon yourself in a bubble until there's a vaccine that's up to you, but we cannot keep the whole population in lockdown until then. These measures are about managing the rate of infections, not about preventing everyone getting it. I evaluate the risk of me dying or even becoming seriously ill from COVID-19 as tiny - and smaller than other risks I've happily taken and will continue to take in life. I'd argue that it's the responsibility of the young and healthy to keep the economy turning, which means buying stuff, and doing stuff, as normal as well as going to work and earning money. I've followed all the Swiss government's advice and will continue to do so as I believe that it is sensible and scientifically led. So when they say it's ok for me to visit the hairdresser, I will do so.


Spot on - the most sensible thing I've read in some time - this is all about 'perspective' IMHO . . .
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Belch wrote:
Gämsbock wrote:
I evaluate the risk of me dying or even becoming seriously ill from COVID-19 as tiny - and smaller than other risks I've happily taken and will continue to take in life.


Spot on - the most sensible thing I've read in some time - this is all about 'perspective' IMHO . . .



Apart from the fact that your decision does not just affect you. Your risk may be tiny, but you then may become the means of transmission to other who do not have a tiny risk. If you are happy to dismiss the transitive risk to others then, I guess that is your choice, but it is like deliberately skiing above another group on an avalanche prone slope.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Nadenoodlee wrote:
Also 150chf is a bargain


Shocked compared to what I pay (where it's not especially cheap) I would have to earn £180K to pay the same pro rata for a cut and blow Shocked are swiss salaries really in keeping with that sort of cost?
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Quote:
Apart from the fact that your decision does not just affect you. Your risk may be tiny, but you then may become the means of transmission to other who do not have a tiny risk. If you are happy to dismiss the transitive risk to others then, I guess that is your choice, but it is like deliberately skiing above another group on an avalanche prone slope.


@ringingmaster, so would my decision to isolate in my home for the next 18 months affect others. If everyone like me did then untold numbers of businesses would go bust and the economy wouldn’t recover for decades. As Gordy said above, that also has an impact on the health of the population in the years that follow. We cannot concentrate on COVID-19 deaths now and completely ignore the deaths from all other causes that are indirectly caused.

The comparison with off piste skiing is unjust because there is no downside to either me or the economy if I choose not to ski in a dangerous manner. As a relatively young, healthy, economically active person if I choose to lock myself away for 18 months there are direct disadvantages to both me and to the economy, and indirectly many others. I’ve continued to pay for services I have not been receiving the last weeks (as have many here) on the basis that I should if I can afford to and if I want them to still be around after lockdown. I see me, and others like me, going back to normal activities when the Swiss government decides it’s appropriate to do so as my responsibility.

I stress again that I’m living in Switzerland and following the Swiss government’s advice. That focuses on protecting the vulnerable whilst keeping as much as possible running by those not vulnerable.

Currently I work entirely from home, go by bike or walk everywhere and have no direct contact with vulnerable people. They are requested to stay home, signed off sick from work if necessary and paid sick pay, and have services at their disposal to do their shopping etc for them. If the vulnerable isolate as instructed then there are no vulnerable out and about for me to give it to.
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@ringingmaster

Apart from the fact that your decision does not just affect you. Your risk may be tiny, but you then may become the means of transmission to other who do not have a tiny risk. If you are happy to dismiss the transitive risk to others then, I guess that is your choice, but it is like deliberately skiing above another group on an avalanche prone slope

Not sure your avalanche analogy (whilst apt for this site) is comparative really is it . . . . . . .as I've already stated 'perspective' here is key. If you're happy living the rest of your life in FEAR because a small minority are affected and its being reported upon daily then so be it . . .

On the same basis I'd suggest you take up another sport. . .let alone drive a car, drink alcohol, eat fatty foods, get on a bus, cross the road . . .etc


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Wed 29-04-20 14:11; edited 2 times in total
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Oops DP


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Wed 29-04-20 14:10; edited 1 time in total
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@holidayloverxx, the economy is structured differently so I’m not sure you can compare a single item point to point and benchmark against salary. But anything service based is particularly expensive here.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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Belch wrote:
@ringingmaster

On the same basis I'd suggest you take up another sport. . .let alone drive a car, drink alcohol, eat fatty foods, get on a bus, cross the road . . .etc


Apart from driving a car, none of those have a significant risks to others.
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@Gämsbock, and if you use the "old" exchange rate, that's a paltry £60. I used to pay £30 for a bloke's cut in 2005 ... (albeit quite a posh shop). The exchange rate shifts are more that £ has weakened...

When we move to CH in 2006 it was ~CHF 32-35 for steak and chips in most reasonable establishments, when we left in 2019 is was CHF 34-38 ... very little inflation - but everyone from the UK complained about how expensive it was.
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Update from media conference today

The Federal Council have today announced a further relaxation of the lockdown from 11th May. This is more relaxed than the initial plan outlined last week and a number of the below have been brought forward from Phase 3 on 8th June.
- Shops, restaurants, markets, museums and libraries are allowed to open again.
- Restaurants with max. 4 adults at a table, more kids allowed though.
- Primary AND secondary schools, to re-open.
- Mass and professional sport training for non-contact sports allowed again. For mass sport, small groups of maximum 5 people.
- Large events of more than 1000 people banned until at least the end of August.
- Contract tracing will be back in operation in all Swiss cantons by 11th May.
- Contract tracing app to come.
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