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Is the 2020/2021 a non starter?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
yorkshirelad wrote:

the infections rate is 100,000 per day according to a study by ICL... and doubling every 9 days...so herd immunity is already happening without having to announce it...all be done by xmas if you add all those with it from january onwards..so skiing might still happen Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


You just made my day Sir! - And my winter! I never thought of it that way, but there is some truth to your statement... I will do another booking in April, just to be safe Madeye-Smiley Very Happy Toofy Grin
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
DanishRider wrote:
yorkshirelad wrote:

the infections rate is 100,000 per day according to a study by ICL... and doubling every 9 days...so herd immunity is already happening without having to announce it...all be done by xmas if you add all those with it from january onwards..so skiing might still happen Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


You just made my day Sir! - And my winter! I never thought of it that way, but there is some truth to your statement... I will do another booking in April, just to be safe Madeye-Smiley Very Happy Toofy Grin


Unfortunately there's no reason to assume that having the virus will result in herd immunity - we dont have a good track record with the other corona viruses - either with immunisation or immunity - or so there's no reason to assume that this one will be any different.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
ropetow wrote:
DanishRider wrote:
yorkshirelad wrote:

the infections rate is 100,000 per day according to a study by ICL... and doubling every 9 days...so herd immunity is already happening without having to announce it...all be done by xmas if you add all those with it from january onwards..so skiing might still happen Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


You just made my day Sir! - And my winter! I never thought of it that way, but there is some truth to your statement... I will do another booking in April, just to be safe Madeye-Smiley Very Happy Toofy Grin


Unfortunately there's no reason to assume that having the virus will result in herd immunity - we dont have a good track record with the other corona viruses - either with immunisation or immunity - or so there's no reason to assume that this one will be any different.


Maybe not - But I like a bit of optimism in dark times like these - Hell i might even book for February too!


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Thu 29-10-20 12:58; edited 1 time in total
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Next thing due out is masks being of no use when wet.. Which will lead to the question of masks getting wet when breathing through them after 20 minutes.. This info comes from the same group who said masks work.. Watch the news!!!
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yorkshirelad wrote:
Next thing due out is masks being of no use when wet.. Which will lead to the question of masks getting wet when breathing through them after 20 minutes.. This info comes from the same group who said masks work.. Watch the news!!!


I don't think that will be a problem - I ordered a waterproof maske/facecover, so can't wait to see if it fits. This model: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Black-with-Back-Zipper-Latex-Mask-Rubber-Hood-Catsuit-Party-Wear-Costumes-0-4mm-/163936794320
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@DanishRider, room for plenty of snowheads stickers on that ! snowHead
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nickH wrote:
@DanishRider, room for plenty of snowheads stickers on that ! snowHead


I won't be hard to spot Toofy Grin Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@yorkshirelad, they used to have 'fever hospitals' which apparently had a special design to avoid bugs moving about the place. Maybe these will return: who knows?

@andy from embsay, as far as I know the vaccines for whooping cough (pertussis) are just to get the baby over the hill until it is old enough to maintain its own immune system. For the first few months of life the child has the mother's immunity to a degree which gradually wears off. Mothers receive a whooping cough vaccine in the later stages of pregnancy which keeps the baby going until they are given DTaP. Interestingly, the reason chickenpox is mild in children is that the immune system is juvenile and when it comes into contact with a pathogen goes bananas. This is why children can laugh off fevers of 39-40 that would lay out a grown man. This nukes chickenpox very nicely but in the adult the response is more muted on first contact which is why it can be nasty. Not a very specific comment but might be of interest.
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@boobleblooble, can’t remember which vax it was, but this was a (non-Imperial) chap basically saying journalists shouldn’t be screeching “there’s no immunity!!!!!” as immunity is more complex than simply antibodies (eg t-cells etc). My wife and I got an antibody test recently - both negative, but our youngest is at Manchester Uni and all her mates have tested +ve for covid and she was negative - seems unlikely that she wouldn’t have been exposed as they live and hang out together, so maybe we’re resistant in some way. I was in France in late Jan and late Feb when there were no precautions and my wife had symptoms that now would see you straight to a test centre (temp of 39.5º etc) after I’d come back. Similarly our eldest’s flatmates had loss of taste and fatigue in March but that was again before testing was available.
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yorkshirelad wrote:


the infections rate is 100,000 per day according to a study by ICL... and doubling every 9 days...so herd immunity is already happening without having to announce it...all be done by xmas if you add all those with it from january onwards..so skiing might still happen Skullie Skullie Skullie Skullie



FIFY
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andy from embsay wrote:
denfinella wrote:
@yorkshirelad, I like your optimism, and I'm sure your comment wasn't a serious one, but:

i) it's now thought that antibodies don't last more than ~6 months, so people who caught the virus in the first half of the year may not "count" towards the herd immunity threshold
ii) even if the above isn't correct, then the doubling rate will likely slow down over the coming weeks as the more recent suppression measures begin to have an effect


I think that Imperial have done it (“it” being headline-grabbing press release with little explanation) again with this. What they’ve shown is that antibodies decline after infection, but not that immunity does - if immunity was as short-lived as they seem to be suggesting, then surely there’d be significant evidence of reinfection, given that tens (hundreds?) of millions of people have been infetcted worldwide. In fact there’s (I think) six proven cases of reinfection. Even if only 1% of those infected had caught it again then surely there’d be thousands and thousands? A boffin on the TV yesterday said that some vaccines (Whooping Cough, I think?) rarely produces detectable antibodies but does provide immunity.


Fair point.
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Here's the actual paper in case anyone wants to read the source document rather than person-on-the-internet's reinterpretation of press headlines.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/MEDRXIV-2020-219725v1-Elliott.pdf

Specifically, the paper talks about the complexity of immunity, the multitude of responses, various reference disease antibody and reinfection profiles (including seasonal coronaviruses). All those things that random-people-on-the-internet are saying have been overlooked...
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@snowdave, but the Imperial press release doesn’t mention any of that. So journalists (not “random-people-on-the-internet”) have interpreted it as “immunity is short-lived” and reported it as such.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I'd keep in mind that journalists are after a headline, not reporting every pertinent detail. Mainly whatever grabs eyeballs.
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andy from embsay wrote:

In fact there’s (I think) six proven cases of reinfection.
A boffin on the TV yesterday said that some vaccines (Whooping Cough, I think?) rarely produces detectable antibodies but does provide immunity.


That’s good enough for me. No need to fact check, I’m taking it. I had it back in July, mild headache for a day, positive PCR and antibody test, and I’m working on the assumption I’m immune.

Early December trip to France cancelled. Skiing in Sweden it is then.
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Pastorius wrote:
I'd keep in mind that journalists are after a headline, not reporting every pertinent detail. Mainly whatever grabs eyeballs.


Yep - I have noticed the BBC are perhaps trying to be a bit less hysterical recently - their report on ICU this week seemed to be saying “it’s tough, but they’re coping” - I wonder if they’re concerned that continued scare stories will stop people going to get stuff checked out, as the meeja generally must have some responsibility for the drop in screenings for cancer etc.
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@andy from embsay, I hope so: the reporting has been abysmal across the board. I thought the BBC's article on Victoria was astonishing: all sorts of ra-ra nonsense about beating the virus and virtually nothing on the appallingly oppressive manner in which it was done.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
andy from embsay wrote:
@snowdave, but the Imperial press release doesn’t mention any of that. So journalists (not “random-people-on-the-internet”) have interpreted it as “immunity is short-lived” and reported it as such.


The press release literally says they don't know what this means ???

"Our study shows that over time there is a reduction in the proportion of people testing positive for antibodies. It remains unclear what level of immunity antibodies provide, or for how long this immunity lasts.
Prof Paul Elliott study author, Imperial College London"

"This very large study has shown that the proportion of people with detectable antibodies is falling over time. But we don’t yet know whether this will leave these people at risk of reinfection with the virus that causes COVID-19. Prof Helen Ward study author, Imperial College London"
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@Pejoli, I know, I’ve read it. What that doesn’t say (to me, at least) is that there may be other factors that drive immunity other than antibodies - so journalists have interpreted it as “immunity (if there is any) is short lived” - which from what @snowdave points out, is not what the actual paper says.
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I saw an interview with one of the authors on tele on the day of the release, she came across as alarmist and did not discuss the wider details of immunity, it felt like she was wanting to be alarmist just to get on the TV.

Anyway I wished the interviewer had asked her why there were so few cases of reinfection world wide? Seems like that would be worthwhile reporting on.

It is also old news, I got an antibody level test back in June so I could donate plasma to help the inflicted and was told back then that the blood donation service were surprised at the low level of antibodies in those who had recovered. Most had levels too low to harvest.
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Do we carry antibodies for measles, flu etc for long after having the vaccines.
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Quote:

so few cases of reinfection world wide?

I guess we don't really know. Because the vast majority of people who "got it" in the first wave even in western Europe, let alone the less developed countries, were never tested. There are anecdotal cases - e.g a doctor colleague of my niece, a GP in a north London "hot spot". He, and his professional colleagues, are pretty convinced he had it twice. Loads of them were ill with classic Covid symptoms but none was tested. Given that the vast majority of cases are unsymptomatic it seems rash to come to conclusions too soon.
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robs1 wrote:
Do we carry antibodies for measles, flu etc for long after having the vaccines.


We prob carry antibody to all sort of ailments that are no longer prevalent
We can drink beer flavoured with plant based hops, but its poison to dogs
Dogs can eat raw chicken, but its poison to humans.
One is really carnivore, the other is really herbivore, however both these are omnivore. Yet each have an immunity to different food groups
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@pam w, as you say, we don't know, however it is worthy of discussion since proven cases are close to zero worldwide, seems like the press prefer a scare story.
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@Mr.Egg, digestive capability is not really analogous to immune response ...

The last paper I read that referenced it suggested 6 "genuine" reinfections globally so far.
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I feel that the gov would prefer to play that down rather than discuss it, as implementing even more rules for those with and without immunity just creates more problems for them, easier just to infer everyone is still at risk.

I do remember at one stage the gov saying that antibody tests would be a game changer to get the economy working again. That seems to have been swept under the carpet as the realisation dawned that people can't/won't follow simple rules.
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@JimboS, I think I saw the same interview. It does seem like some (not all) of these scientists are rather enjoying their moment in the spotlight. I’m not cynical enough to believe it’s all about future funding, but as was mentioned upthread it seems the actual paper was far less alarmist than has been reported (doesn’t help that many journalists don’t seem to understand data).
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pam w wrote:
Quote:

so few cases of reinfection world wide?

I guess we don't really know. Because the vast majority of people who "got it" in the first wave even in western Europe, let alone the less developed countries, were never tested. There are anecdotal cases - e.g a doctor colleague of my niece, a GP in a north London "hot spot". He, and his professional colleagues, are pretty convinced he had it twice. Loads of them were ill with classic Covid symptoms but none was tested. Given that the vast majority of cases are unsymptomatic it seems rash to come to conclusions too soon.


No, but I think there are c40 million positive tests worldwide - you would have thought there’d be more than half a dozen proven reinfections if even a small % could be reinfected.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
with a false psitive rate of the PCR test of 1-2% , those few cases of reinfection do not evn hold statistically... So for the time being we can safely assume you dont get reinfected, at least for half a year
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boyanr wrote:
with a false psitive rate of the PCR test of 1-2% , those few cases of reinfection do not evn hold statistically... So for the time being we can safely assume you dont get reinfected, at least for half a year

There is no evidence of the case positive rate being 1-2% and the cases that have been described have been carefully investigated.
None of which is to say that there is evidence of a significant problem at the moment.
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@T Bar, +1.

There’s a whole section on the ONS website about this. Specifically it observes that in a 6 week period July-September, 159 of 208k samples tested positive. Even if every one of these was a false positive rate of well under 0.1%.
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Bringing it back on topic, I vote for restriction free travel to ski destinations for those who have had a positive covid test in the name of science to show whether or not we can be reinfected by locals.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@JimboS, I'm up for it. What do I need to do to get a positive test? My mum's had it so maybe she'll lend me hers.....
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Mr.Egg wrote:
robs1 wrote:
Do we carry antibodies for measles, flu etc for long after having the vaccines.


We prob carry antibody to all sort of ailments that are no longer prevalent
We can drink beer flavoured with plant based hops, but its poison to dogs
Dogs can eat raw chicken, but its poison to humans.
One is really carnivore, the other is really herbivore, however both these are omnivore. Yet each have an immunity to different food groups
nothing to do with antibodies though!
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JimboS wrote:
Bringing it back on topic, I vote for restriction free travel to ski destinations for those who have had a positive covid test in the name of science to show whether or not we can be reinfected by locals.
but what with?
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boyanr wrote:
with a false psitive rate of the PCR test of 1-2% , those few cases of reinfection do not evn hold statistically... So for the time being we can safely assume you dont get reinfected, at least for half a year


well that isn't how reinfections are determined. THey are determined by sequencing the actual virus at two different points and finding different viruses. Not just a PCR (which isn't the whole viral genome). and it wouldn't be by PCR either.

Isn't it great how so many people know so much about molecular biology.
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andy from embsay wrote:
pam w wrote:
Quote:

so few cases of reinfection world wide?

I guess we don't really know. Because the vast majority of people who "got it" in the first wave even in western Europe, let alone the less developed countries, were never tested. There are anecdotal cases - e.g a doctor colleague of my niece, a GP in a north London "hot spot". He, and his professional colleagues, are pretty convinced he had it twice. Loads of them were ill with classic Covid symptoms but none was tested. Given that the vast majority of cases are unsymptomatic it seems rash to come to conclusions too soon.


No, but I think there are c40 million positive tests worldwide - you would have thought there’d be more than half a dozen proven reinfections if even a small % could be reinfected.


Reinfections will only be found through very intense lab examination using non-routine tests.

What would be needed to know the answer to this question is lots of repeat viral genome sequencing- which doesn't happen.
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Mr.Egg wrote:
robs1 wrote:
Do we carry antibodies for measles, flu etc for long after having the vaccines.


We prob carry antibody to all sort of ailments that are no longer prevalent


What you have after exposure to an infection to which you had an antibody response is a set of what are called B memory cells. These are what make up your personal library of antibody producing cells to different things to which you have previously been exposed. It is all a bit amazing. Chromosomes rearrange themselves so that on re exposure different types of antibody are produced.

Antibodies to literally billions of things are already there, again generated by extremely cunning genetic rearrangements of a relatively small number of genes (although it is in the genetics of immunity that humans show by far the biggest variation).

So you can have antibodies to things to which you may never be exposed, from chromium leather tanning chemicals to measles and COVID.

But what happens after exposure is rearrangement of the genes of the initial antibody producing cells (B cells) to become memory B cells which can then be activated on reinfection.
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it is just great how complete ignorance about something in no way ever gets in the way of authoritative opinions.
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I'm trying to remain hopeful for early Jan and late March but it's looking increasingly doubtful Crying or Very sad
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