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Is the 2020/2021 a non starter?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
But anybody from a "third country" can get into the EU for a one or two week holiday (ie in normal times, absent lockdowns). And in many ski resorts, Brits contribute hugely to the local economy.

Re the context of the "no U in the EU" comment, the other poster may have been referring, in part, to the problems of the EU structure as exposed by a remainer journalist writing in a staunchly pro-EU newspaper :

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/10/coronavirus-crisis-truth-eu-union-financial-rescue

Key excerpts:

"In other words, the EU is not a true political union, like the United States or Russia or even the United Kingdom. When one EU country hits trouble, as Greece and Italy have done over Mediterranean migrants since 2015, the EU itself is silent. It turns its back and hopes trouble will go away."

And: "Over the next fortnight, any hope of a truly concerted European response to coronavirus is implausible. The EU has so far been inert. Nation states have been forced back on their own science, and their own health resources. Borders have closed and suppressions varied, from total lockdown to none at all. An exasperated EU research council voted no confidence in its chief scientist, Mauro Ferrari, who resigned in a huff."


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Mon 13-04-20 18:04; edited 8 times in total
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Forst wrote:
@LaForet,
I work for a major supermarket group only part time,and make no excuses for them. it beggars belief about the situation. as you say 80% of a food sales is dominated by five corporations.the general public has only themselves to blame. not so long ago every high street would have 3/4 independant grocers, greengrocers and butchers sourcing their products locally.The supermarkets came along cheap and cheerful,shopping all in one convenient place, nice in the short term.
The public buying cheap the end result we end up with no choice.destroying the high street. the supermarkets have the nerve to critise Amazon.The long supply chain does not help, originally brought in looks good on paper.until things go wrong The supermarkets source from wholesalers who buy in massive economies scale. The milk distribution network dominated by a few companies , now leading to milk shortages is prime example.
We have similar situations in our ski equipment sales resulting in many shops closing and this was before COVID 19


Um, milk shortages? UK currently has a vast over supply, milk is regularly being poured away with the slump in demand from Costa et al.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Haggis_Trap wrote:
mitcva wrote:
Given that most skiiers are younger and fitter than the population as a whole, might they be among the first to be let loose?


An alternate view is that ski towns are virus hot-spots : people flying in weekly from all over world to shared accommodation.
The European corona black-spots seem to have been Ischgl, St Anton, Verbier and Chamonix...

FWIW : I agree that no one knows what the release from lock-down will look like.
China seems to be managing to avoid a second-wave thus far.


And Saalbach, ask JimboS
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Quote:

But anybody from a "third country" can get into the EU for a one or two week holiday (ie in normal times, absent lockdowns)


Not sure what that sentence actually means? Many countries require visas to enter the Schengen area for holidays, including important/big spenders like Russians.

But whatever - at the moment, and likely until a vaccine is found and distributed sufficiently for mass innoculation (probably 18 months minimum) , the EU external borders are closed for "non essential" travel. Skiing holidays are non essential. Therefore if the UK becomes a 3rd country on Jan 1, 2020, then no skiing for British citizens next winter.
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@Android2000, is that for “British citizens” or “people coming from UK”?
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Quote:

is that for “British citizens” or “people coming from UK”?



People coming from UK (which will be mostly British citizens of course).
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I meant that you don't need to be part of the EU to travel to the EU for a holiday (in normal times). People of all nationality travel to the EU for short periods. Some need visas (so what?) many (like Americans) do not.

Are you really suggesting that the EU will be closed to the entire non-EU world for holidays for the next 18 months?

I do hope not, because if that is the case, then many EU ski resorts (or holiday resorts full stop) are going to go bust, while the rest of us go skiing in Switzerland, Canada, the US, Japan or wherever (unless there is still a global lockdown).
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Most countries have closed their external borders, including all those you list (by the way, Switzerland is in Schengen, as is Norway). Sorry to break it to you, but they won't be opening anytime soon.

You can't fly to US from UK for a holiday now, so why will that change next winter unless a CV19 vaccine is invented?

I can't see any borders opening until there is either a vaccine, or a reliable antibody test that shows a person is immune (having already had CV19). This is not going away until one or both of those things happen. Governments will have to borrow billions and mothball theiir tourism industries. Some of this can be mitigated within economic zones, like the EU or North America, with internal travel and checks and tracing; so the EU may well open internal borders before it opens the external border. Which for the UK is a critical difference - we might be internal (as now), but if TP ends in Dec we will be external.
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mitcva wrote:

Are you really suggesting that the EU will be closed to the entire non-EU world for holidays for the next 18 months?


They might. Until there is vaccine what is to stop a second wave of Corona virus?

Quote:
... while the rest of us go skiing in Switzerland, Canada, the US, Japan or wherever (unless there is still a global lockdown).


What makes you think those nations want virus infected tourists from all over globe triggering another lockdown?
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I know they won't be opening anytime soon, but if the UK is then treated as the rest of the world, we should be able to travel for holiday purposes, even if that means having an immunity certificate or whatever.

And even then, I cannot see any EU country waiving such a certificate - if it is needed - for EU members only. Doesn't make sense.

As matters stand, Schengen is dead. I am not sure it will ever revive.

As for simply mothballing holiday industries, the EU cannot afford that for long - certainly not the med countries, which are both (relatively) poor and highly dependent on tourism. The EU couldn't even agree on Coronabonds, so it won't agree to something that big. The Guardian piece explains why. Here's another snippet from that Guardian piece:

"As other Europeans see Germans and Scandinavians working, shopping and enjoying spring, the pressure on their governments to end the lockdown will be intense. Pressure will devolve on to health services, while wider economies will struggle to recover."
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Quote:


I know they won't be opening anytime soon, but if the UK is then treated as the rest of the world, we should be able to travel for holiday purposes, even if that means having an immunity certificate or whatever.

And even then, I cannot see any EU country waiving such a certificate - if it is needed - for EU members only. Doesn't make sense.


The reality is the UK will be treated as a 3rd country by the EU, so no travel. And also as an external country by the US, Canada etc. So no travel.

Macron just confirmed the French exit strategy - external EU borders will remain closed, but internal EU borders will open earlier. Risk of infection will be managed by use of smartphones and contact tracing. This is data-dependent and a pan-EU model is probably what will happen. EU law means that 3rd countries cannot participate in such a scheme, personal data cannot go outside remit of ECJ etc. That's just one example of how UK will automatically be excluded from the scaling down of measures if it does not extend TP.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
"The reality is the UK will be treated as a 3rd country by the EU, so no travel. And also as an external country by the US, Canada etc. So no travel. "

Er, are you saying nobody from outside the EU will be able to travel to the EU?
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(Somebody has eaten a bat infected with remainer virus...)
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

Er, are you saying nobody from outside the EU will be able to travel to the EU?


That's already the situation. I didn't know what you were getting at with your earlier point about holidays - now I get it. You were unaware that the EU border is closed now. You can't come for a holiday from outside EU. Sorry that you didn't realise.

Here's Macron saying it will be closed until at least September:

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/macron-warns-eu-external-borders-may-remain-closed-until-september-due-to-covid-19/

The EU external border is closed for all non-essential travel. This in practice means only travellers allowed to enter are for repatriation purposes (people coming home), diplomats and some cross border workers in essential industries, and those connected to freight transportation.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I know the EU border is closed. But if and when it eventually opens for non-essential travel in the skiing season I honestly don't think UK citizens will face any particular barriers for holiday travel simply on account of us no longer being part of the EU. We would simply be treated like visitors from other non-EU countries, that's all. No big problem.

Personally, I am willing to bet that there will be a skiing season by Spring 2021. I do hope so, anyway.

Best wishes to all skiers, everywhere.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
There's a long time to go between now and next ski season and a lot can change. Hard to see how we will be able to have free travel by then though. Probably only way skiing will happen is by testing and technology assisted tracking as mentioned in earlier posts. It's possible that could allow travel. Honestly I don't see why UK would be excluded from that in or out of EU (unless they deliberately didn't engage with it, which would be in keeping with Boris)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@mitcva, it might still be so that all third countries remain locked out, simply because they are third countries...nobody knows, but we do know that UK wants to be a third country...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Ah, but you do know Boris is an occasional skier, don't you? (Strange but true).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/jan/23/boris-johnson-ski-collision-italians


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Mon 13-04-20 19:52; edited 1 time in total
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mitcva wrote:
I know the EU border is closed. But if and when it eventually opens for non-essential travel in the skiing season I honestly don't think UK citizens will face any particular barriers for holiday travel simply on account of us no longer being part of the EU. We would simply be treated like visitors from other non-EU countries, that's all. No big problem..


Formal plan is that Schengen area will, unsurprisingly, open up to EU members first before 3rd parties
Therefore there will be likely be period of time when UK citizens can not visit Europe 'as normal'.
But hey - that is what Brexiters voted for Very Happy

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/covid-19-eu-commission-suggests-gradual-return-to-normalcy/


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Mon 13-04-20 19:52; edited 1 time in total
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Quote:

There's a long time to go between now and next ski season and a lot can change. Hard to see how we will be able to have free travel by then though. Probably only way skiing will happen is by testing and technology assisted tracking as mentioned in earlier posts. It's possible that could allow travel. Honestly I don't see why UK would be excluded from that in or out of EU (unless they deliberately didn't engage with it, which would be in keeping with Boris)


Uk would be excluded from EU equivalency recognised smartphone tracking program unless it accepts ECJ jurisprudence on data. IE - UK in Transition Period - included. Out of TP - excluded. It's a matter of law.

Most sensible thing for all is to extend TP now by 2 years.
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Android2000 wrote:
Most sensible thing for all is to extend TP now by 2 years.
Which would require a change of UK law before agreeing an extension with the EU.
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Come to think of it, in the coming “1,5 meter social distancing economy” it is gonna be quite practical that UK chose to become a third country.
Hotels, restaurants, lifts etc etc will all have greatly reduced capacity, no room for the Brits! Hurray for Brexit!


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Mon 13-04-20 20:12; edited 2 times in total
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
It's been changed before, (remember Mar 29 and Oct 31?) .. and it can be changed again.
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Android2000 wrote:
It's been changed before, (remember Mar 29 and Oct 31?) .. and it can be changed again.
Of course, although it seemed dumb to me at the time to box yourself in to a corner, which might well prove to be correct even if few people could have foreseen the exact circumstances.
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French borders open for EU members only which UK currently is. Current plan, which may change, is uk will cease to participate post transition period 31/12.

Depending on how it plays out we may not be able to travel to France for holidays of any sort.

Many variables, what are people's thoughts?
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What about EU passport holders who live in the UK? (I know it’s all speculation but we’ve nothing better to do for now)
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@DJL, speculation of course, but travel restrictions at the moment on e.g. the Austrian border are dependent on where you are travelling from and your reason for travel, rather than your nationality, which makes sense really. Countries are generally inclined (obliged?) to accept their own citizens, although they can still apply quarantine restrictions etc. to them.

Edit: at the moment should probably read a couple of weeks ago, as I think all borders are pretty much closed now apart from a few exceptions.


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Mon 13-04-20 21:04; edited 1 time in total
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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Average annual EU students that study in the UK I understand to be 145,000.

Also a reciprocal of that too.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Android2000 wrote:
Most sensible thing ...

So what's the chance of that happening?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Hey Folks

I encourage you to Read this and Follow developments

https://www.alpinforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=37&t=63758

Really interesting new discussion started up today on the German Forum, with some sobering thoughts about next season...

I think it was probably ignited by the cancellation of Oktoberfest and the very real possibility of limited or no ski season 20/21

Some posts already pointing to focussed on Austria

Seasons Passes.. worthwhile
Skiing but with No Restuarants or Mountain huts (Apres ski)
Border Controls (limits)
Austria will not want a repeat of last season
Hotels not offering 100% Cancellations

Plus more......

The General feeling amongst the posts so far is not looking good Shocked Shocked

https://www.alpinforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=37&t=63758


Shocked Shocked Shocked
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
We have no plans to ski until mid January, and probably only 2 weeks next season. It’ll be the first time in many years we won’t be needing a season pass.

I personally believe that the winter sports industry may change massively, as will charter flights/ U.K. tour operators. I’d not be surprised to see a major drop off in tour operators packages, and an upturn in self drive and independent arrangements. It’s been coming for a while but I think the current situation will be a turning point and many chalets that rely on U.K. groups travel may struggle.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
stanton wrote:


https://www.alpinforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=37&t=63758




I think the idea that if capacity is reduced priority would be given to people coming in for a week's skiing and staying in resort is interesting. Limited day passes and season pass holders restricted to off peak skiing. Maybe people needing a health passport before being allowed entry.

They also make the point in the forum that T.Os may have difficulty getting insurance cover to operate in the new environment.

They've just released the Covid contamination rates for France.
6% overall for the country. So a long long way from herd immunity.
Close to zero for the Alps and Pyrenees. With a RO of maybe 5 to 6 just one contaminated person could kick start the whole thing in those areas so I'm more pessimistic than I was for next winter and foresee new restrictions coming in as needed.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
We always do a mates week in January. This year we went on our first bash to Alleghe and next year considering options to maybe to the BB or do a DIY week as usual the previous week.

Because I can't help myself I've been looking at options this morning and could put a very keenly priced week together back to Mayrhofen (which we loved in 2017) for our favoured 3rd week of Jan. Flights are cheap, good priced apartment near the main lift, good deal on a transfer - right up my street!!

But I just don't know what to do - I think we will wait until the Autumn and see what transpires, but then we'll probably kick ourselves for not booking the flights at least (LGW to Inn with luggage for <£100).

First world problems though, I know!
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I booked an Airbnb apt in Meribel for week of 27 Mar, but no flights or anything else yet. Free cancellation until 13 Mar. Sort of expecting it not to happen, but just wanted to get that warm fuzzy feeling that a just-booked holiday gives you!
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Hopefully countries will look at Sweden and take the same approach. We are seeing the effect of herd immunity and new cases have plateaued. New hospital and intensive care cases have plateaued quite well below capacity. Deaths have slowed and will start to fall. Still some way to go, but Sweden is working on the principal there is no point in shutting borders when the virus is in society. Fingers crossed others follow suit.
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@Themasterpiece, I am looking at the numbers and hoping Sweden will provide a model for other countries. As far as I can see the prevalance is neither increasing or declining significantly. As you say, it will be impossible to eliminate the virus entirely so holding the situation at a level the health service can cope with allows as much as possible of normal life to continue.

How does it work out on the ground? From what I read there is mild social distancing (restaurants open for reasonably spaced tables), no big gatherings but some schools operating. Does it seem sustainable, at least until there is a vaccine or similar?

Admittedly Sweden is helped by its low population density, but presumably things are working in cities and towns too.

Other models will come from the Netherlands, and the relaxation steps being taken cautiously in Denmark, Germany, Austria, Italy etc.
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Themasterpiece wrote:
Hopefully countries will look at Sweden and take the same approach. ...

Sweden has one of the lowest population densities in Europe, at something like 20-25 people per square kilometre, with the rest of Scandinavia not much different. In contrast France, Spain, Austria are all around 100; Germany, Italy, Switzerland around 200; and UK around 300 - with England alone over 400.

Taking the same approach doesn't necessarily lead to the same outcome.
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For sure it’s helped by low population density and major cities that are far apart. But the new cases have plateaued in all regions now.

And for anyone looking at worldometer or whatever for deaths, it’s an incorrect picture due to the lack of reporting on the weekend and delay effect. The real curve for actual day of death, shown on the Swedish Health Authority website is much more smooth. But likewise the latest week needs to be considered with a grain of salt due to said delay. This guy fills in the chart with the average delay as an estimate
https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/

On the ground in Stockholm, it’s fairly business as normal. Working from home if you can. Higher education establishments closed and conducting distance learning. Reduced travel within the country. Reduced number of people in shops, restaurants etc, but schools, shops, restaurants, bars, nightclubs etc remain open. Guidance for restaurants and cafes to avoid over-crowding. Responsibility is placed on individuals and businesses.

We can carry on this way a long long time, which was part of the strategy.
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@ecureuil, I agree. Sweden’s approach is right for the Nordics, but probably others can learn something. Perhaps other factors are in play such as more than half of the population are in single person households. Generally healthy population, gym going and outdoor types. Etc
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Themasterpiece wrote:
Hopefully countries will look at Sweden and take the same approach. We are seeing the effect of herd immunity and new cases have plateaued. New hospital and intensive care cases have plateaued quite well below capacity. Deaths have slowed and will start to fall. Still some way to go, but Sweden is working on the principal there is no point in shutting borders when the virus is in society. Fingers crossed others follow suit.


Swedish population is 10 million.
Covid-19 deaths to date almost 2000
Equates to 200 deaths per million population.
Cases per day are rather erratic, but total more than other Scandi countries combined.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
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