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Is the 2020/2021 a non starter?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
tangowaggon wrote:
@LaForet,
I think you completely missed my point, I was not talking about people with pre existing conditions, I was referring to people that are left with life changing health problems caused by CV19 wheather they have pre conditions or totally healthy people pre CV19.

I did. So, apologies. The atmosphere is getting quite febrile. I should probably go and have some tea and cake.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Apres Ambiance.... coming to another thread near to you.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Some passive aggressiveness on here today.....just nipping out for more popcorn, ran out already.
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@boobleblooble,

Quote:

No, my answer is to have more C19 and less cancer, fewer strokes and heart attacks, less misery in total. I think, as many do, that the deaths from C19 are not balanced by the deaths from tens of other diseases, as I've shown in the chart from September where C19 was not even in the highest ten causes of death for that month. It is about proportion. If you cannot understand that then there is nothing more I can say.


This is total b*ll*cks. If you have more C19 then you also have more cancer. If hospitals are overrun with Covid patients then their ability to treat cancer patients decreases. If Covid is widespread then people with symptoms that could be cancer but probably aren't would be less likely to visit their GP. If coronavirus is widespread then chemotherapy becomes much riskier. If coronavirus is widespread then the hospital feels the need to space the chairs in the day treatment ward out halving the capacity of the ward. One of my chemotherapy sessions in April was delayed until I could obtain a negative test result as I had had a slight cough. I bl**dy hate people using 'ooh, cancer is worse' as a reason for relaxing coronavirus restrictions as relaxing the restrictions will make life worse for people with cancer.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
[quote="boobleblooble"]@haggishunter, I won't be coming because Scottish skiing is shite. That is however my choice which all your raving on here cannot prevent. Sturgeon doesn't control the border, no matter how much she wishes you could. They are not 'your' ski areas they are 'ours' as believe it or not we are both (I assume you are anyway) Britons.

Well if the Scottish Government decide they don't want you coming over the border into our country - then yes - Police Scotland may pull you over at the border, ask you nicely to go home and if you want to push it with them - re your choices as a 'Briton' - arrest you and fine you.
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Switzerland is back open - yah!
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ropetow wrote:
boobleblooble wrote:
@haggishunter, I won't be coming because Scottish skiing is shite...........................


Whoop, whoop, love it. Nothing like a bit of petrol on a bonfire. More popcorn please. Cool snowHead
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@rambotion, even at the height of the pandemic the hospitals were not overrun. This has been done already.

C19 in a cancer patient is not a death sentence but for many the treatment being stopped altogether has been. Chemotherapy is always risky but not having it at all is much worse. Patients not seeing their GP is due to the irrational fear and hysteria that has come with C19 and the lack of leadership from government in preventing this.

Put it this way: what is more likely to kill people, cancer or C19? The C19 restrictions are killing cancer patients right now as services have been cut and will be cut again when the recession hits in full.

@ropetow, no they can't: https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/lifestyle/travel/travel-restrictions-scotland-latest-guidance-public-transport-including-buses-and-trains-new-rules-introduced-central-belt-2998751.

@thefatcontroller, it is and I find it incomprehensible. People seem to revel in how miserable it is as though this makes them some sort of titan and France is for Southerners.
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Why did Sweden not take part in EVENT 201??
A genuine question
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boobleblooble wrote:
@rambotion, even at the height of the pandemic the hospitals were not overrun. This has been done already.

@ropetow, no they can't: https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/lifestyle/travel/travel-restrictions-scotland-latest-guidance-public-transport-including-buses-and-trains-new-rules-introduced-central-belt-2998751.



What that article explains is that there is currently travel advice but not at present any legal restrictions on travel in Scotland. The reason why, is that while people are being asked to reduce non-essential travel between the five central belt healthboards and the rest of Scotland (and for that matter Tier 3 areas of England and all of Scotland), the Scottish Government has made it clear it was not asking people to change or abandon pre-existing half term plans except where they involved staying with another household in their home.

If people do travel less and generally abide by the spirit of the rules which by necessity means having less social interactions than normal, then the picture will improve and we will keep a degree of flexibility by having advice rather than strict legal limits on travel. There is some evidence that outward travel from a low prevalence area to a high prevalence area is actually more risky than the reverse, because while a visitor may unwittingly travel from a high prevalence area with the virus, it is the local who returns to the low prevalence area and then engages with their community as normal while having the virus that presents the greater risk of seeding household and subsequent community transmission.

That is why at present the SG proposes to exempt outdoor sports and mountain recreation from travel advice/restrictions at all tiers including Level 4 lockdown, but that depends on people being sensible and taking responsibility for themselves with respect to following the guidelines and rules.
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@haggishunter, so he was wrong then.

I think it's hysterical that a country which is so rabidly Lefty and anti-colonialism from the horrid Tories in Westminster is more than happy to be patronised by their own gov't. "You can have some of your freedom back but only if you behave. No, you've not committed any crimes but we're going to ruin your business and stop your life-saving treatment for your own good. If you resist we'll do it by force. No you can't drink alcohol it's NAUGHTY". It's not much better down here mind you but I'll take a laugh wherever I can get it these days.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
boobleblooble wrote:
@haggishunter, so he was wrong then.

I think it's hysterical that a country which is so rabidly Lefty and anti-colonialism from the horrid Tories in Westminster is more than happy to be patronised by their own gov't. "You can have some of your freedom back but only if you behave. No, you've not committed any crimes but we're going to ruin your business and stop your life-saving treatment for your own good. If you resist we'll do it by force. No you can't drink alcohol it's NAUGHTY". It's not much better down here mind you but I'll take a laugh wherever I can get it these days.


No RopeTow was not wrong, you appear to be arguing that because there are not currently legal restrictions on travel in Scotland that means there can not be such restrictions - that is what is wrong and misleading.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Arghhhhhh

This thread is unreadable.

On topic- I hope I'm wrong but I suspect that this season will be a non-starter. In many respects.

Planning is almost impossible.

Off topic but on thread I think one of the main differences between the camps relates to perception of risk.

For those who are interested the HSE published a really useful booklet;

Taking account of societal concerns about risk https://www.hse.gov.uk/research/rrpdf/rr035.pdf

They suggest a typology;

Fatalism;- it doesn't matter what you do etc

Hierarchy- Platonic- Those with superior insights should make the decisions (experts), democracy should be indirect, elites act as trustees, loyalty and compassion are key.

Individualism; self determination is crucial, paternalism is anathema, the governments raison d'etre is the protection of individual rights, people an carry out their own plans.

Egalitarianism; There is no place for deference, decisions should be agreed by all,

Examples re BSE crisis.

Fatalist- They should shoot the scientists, not cull the calves. Nobody seems to know what is going on.” Dairy Farmer quoted in The Times (2.8.96)

Hierarchist-· “I have not got a scientific opinion worth listening to. My job is simply to make certain that the evidence is drawn to the attention of the public and the Government does what we are told isnecessary.” Health Secretary Stephen Dorrell

Individualist- “I shall continue to eat beef. Yum, yum.” Boris Johnson, Weekly Telegraph, no 245.

Egalitarian-· Feeding dead sheep to cattle, or dead cattle to sheep, is “unnatural” and “perverted”. “The present methods of the agricultural industry are fundamentally unsustainable.” “Risk is not actually about probabilities at all. It’s all about the trustworthiness of the institutions which are telling us what the risk is.” (Michael Jacobs, The Guardian, 24.7.96)

Unfortunately people selectively cherry pick and interpret the evidence to suit their styles.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@DanishRider, I hope you enjoy whatever limited skiing you can do in your own Country. I doubt very much that people without the vaccine, or an exemption will be permitted to travel to many other Countries in the next couple of years.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@ed123, To quote the late, great Stephen Hawkins, It's surprising how many people who claim to believe in fate, still look right when crossing the road.

Toofy Grin Toofy Grin
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Poster: A snowHead
@brianatab, fantastic
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
brianatab wrote:
@DanishRider, I hope you enjoy whatever limited skiing you can do in your own Country. I doubt very much that people without the vaccine, or an exemption will be permitted to travel to many other Countries in the next couple of years.


Well thank you - but I am quite positive of the outlook for travelling, but i do appreciate your concern:-)
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
boobleblooble wrote:
@rambotion, even at the height of the pandemic the hospitals were not overrun. This has been done already.

Laughing Laughing Laughing
Someone either paid no attention to or remembered the PPE shortage or doesn't know what they are talking about.
The NHS was pretty overrun and couldn't operate normally wave 1 and may well sink wave 2.
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@T Bar, sigh: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/no-the-nhs-was-not-overrun-by-covid-during-lockdown . You also assume that PPE works? Unless of course that for years masks worked and this wonderful device to prevent infectious diseases being transmitted was criminally overlooked?

The NHS didn't operate normally because the country was terrified of C19 due to media and gov't panic. This is why heart attack deaths amongst others have risen sharply as have excess deaths at home. As a result huge quantities of normal services stopped. Expect a sharp increase in cancer deaths over the next few years.

Do you now understand yet that lockdowns have a cost? With the damage to the economy with what will the gov't fund the NHS? In the worst-affected areas unemployment has doubled or even tripled in the case of Brighton.


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Wed 28-10-20 21:49; edited 1 time in total
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@boobleblooble,
Well if the spectator says something it must be true. Actually the link doesn't work.
And I guess if you think PPE doesn't work In hospitals you have no idea about what you are talking about.
The cost of lockdown is clearly important but a spectacular distraction to whether or not the hospitals were close to being overwhelmed.
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boobleblooble wrote:
@T Bar, sigh: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/no-the-nhs-was-not-overrun-by-covid-during-lockdown


Or even the NHS would have been overrun if they had admitted the elderly to hospital instead of letting them die in care homes or at home

and sorry, it's the Times, paywalled, rather than the Guardian which, of course, nobody would believe because they are all left-wing propagandists rolling eyes .
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boobleblooble wrote:
@T Bar, sigh: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/no-the-nhs-was-not-overrun-by-covid-during-lockdown. You also assume that PPE works? Unless of course that for years masks worked and this wonderful device to prevent infectious diseases being transmitted was criminally overlooked?

The NHS didn't operate normally because the country was terrified of C19 due to media and gov't panic. This is why heart attack deaths amongst others have risen sharply as have excess deaths at home. As a result huge quantities of normal services stopped. Expect a sharp increase in cancer deaths over the next few years.

Do you now understand yet that lockdowns have a cost? With the damage to the economy with what will the gov't fund the NHS? In the worst-affected areas unemployment has doubled or even tripled in the case of Brighton.


Lockdowns have a price, and many don’t realize that: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/who-official-urges-world-leaders-to-stop-using-lockdowns-as-primary-virus-control-method/ar-BB19TBUo
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
boobleblooble wrote:
@T Bar, sigh: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/no-the-nhs-was-not-overrun-by-covid-during-lockdown. You also assume that PPE works? Unless of course that for years masks worked and this wonderful device to prevent infectious diseases being transmitted was criminally overlooked?

The NHS didn't operate normally because the country was terrified of C19 due to media and gov't panic. This is why heart attack deaths amongst others have risen sharply as have excess deaths at home. As a result huge quantities of normal services stopped. Expect a sharp increase in cancer deaths over the next few years.

Do you now understand yet that lockdowns have a cost? With the damage to the economy with what will the gov't fund the NHS? In the worst-affected areas unemployment has doubled or even tripled in the case of Brighton.


I guess that the NHS is funded the same Way as here in DK, meaning taxes fund the Healthcare system. A growing number of doctors here, are worried because budgets have been used up, and they are now using budgets for future years, meaning that they will need to do costsavings, which will result in subpar treatments in the future. This will lead to deaths and a loss in general life quality... many people forget to factor that in!
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Has anyone anywhere ever suggested that lockdowns aren't economically costly? Puzzled Puzzled
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T Bar wrote:
Has anyone anywhere ever suggested that lockdowns aren't economically costly? Puzzled Puzzled


No - but are all willing to pay the Price at a later stage ? I might add that Denmark have the highest taxes in the world, so UK might different Happy
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@T Bar, @maggi, the link has been repaired. The article directly quotes an NHS official reply to the Times. The NHS and gov't failed to balance the needs of both those affected by C19 and all other illnesses.

Yes you're right, I can't read the article because of the paywall but the top lines refer to a guideline the hospital was using: the NHS have denied using a triage tool to remove treatment from those least likely to be cured. I have no idea which hospital it was and whether that official statement is true or not.

It is perfectly possible to prevent a hospital from reaching excess if you simply turn people away at the door: the question is was it right to do so when the deluge never came as expected. Remember the ludicrous figures thrown around especially by Ferguson who got two previous pandemics wrong as well? It is not a spectacular distraction when the cost of lockdown is directly related to the method of reducing hospital occupancy by switching the country off.

On another note I have spent years going in and out of care and nursing homes working for the NHS and others. Most of the demented are shells who are kept alive by expensive healthcare and nursing systems and high-quality buildings. In previous years a cold winter would've taken most of them but nowadays we keep them alive, full of donepezil and memantine with anti-psychotics if they become difficult. Many are no more aware than babies, endlessly soiling themselves and having to be spoon-fed otherwise they would simply starve as they can neither walk nor speak. For some of them to die quickly (and many C19 deaths are quick) is merciful. You can huff and puff all you like about how heartless I am but I am yet to hear a carer or RN in one of these places disagree. Their efforts are Herculean but they know they will never improve and anyone allowing an animal to suffer in such a fashion would be prevented from keeping any ever again. The average age of death from C19 is 83, which is pretty much bang-on life expectancy. Those born in that cohort would not have expected to have lived for so long when young and I am glad that we have achieved near-miraculous improvements but not every C19 death is a tragedy when others who still have lives to live are dying of cancer in their forties and fifties.

@DanishRider, yes that's right it's 'free at the point of use' although some small areas are charged e.g. some dentistry. Health insurance is entirely optional and is for the private system. A friend of mine's father has cancer but luckily he has private insurance so is being treated. Others are not was wealthy or are unfortunate so have nothing. We have a system here called the 'two week wait'. This is for urgent cancer referrals. It is unsurprisingly now being breached left, right and centre.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@boobleblooble,
The median age of ITU patients with Covid was around 60, there was a lot of treatment of younger people in hospital.
The hospitals were close to being overwhelmed
Most patients with cancer belong to the groups who are also at high risk of severe covid. There was inadequate PPE
None of this had anything whatsoever to do with lockdown other than being ameliorated by it.
The economic consequences are of course serious and no one that Ihave ever heard as suggested anything else.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
haggishunter wrote:
boobleblooble wrote:
@haggishunter, so he was wrong then.

I think it's hysterical that a country which is so rabidly Lefty and anti-colonialism from the horrid Tories in Westminster is more than happy to be patronised by their own gov't. "You can have some of your freedom back but only if you behave. No, you've not committed any crimes but we're going to ruin your business and stop your life-saving treatment for your own good. If you resist we'll do it by force. No you can't drink alcohol it's NAUGHTY". It's not much better down here mind you but I'll take a laugh wherever I can get it these days.


No RopeTow was not wrong, you appear to be arguing that because there are not currently legal restrictions on travel in Scotland that means there can not be such restrictions - that is what is wrong and misleading.


I think if you would care to re-read my post i did say 'if the Scottish Government decide' I didnt say that it was a current situation - but there is precedent after hillwalkers were arrested during the previous lockdown.

Re the 'lefty' comment - i think you will find that the Labour party is doing rather badly north of the border at the moment - however as i said to a previous prospective MSP - have you no ambition to become a labour prime minister of an independant scotland? Independance does not necessarily mean a SNP government going forward. Just saying.....
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The cancer problem mentioned is actually quite serious, but it does not refer to problems with treatments - it refers to the lack of screenings, so patients that would have been diagnosed by now still haven't and will be diagnosed when their chances of survival are much lower. Early diagnoses is the most important factor for cancer treatment. As I work in healthcare IT I have seen the numbers this spring – during the initial 2 months of lockdowns and media hysteria doctor visitations were down to less than a third of their usual – people would be afraid to visit the doctor, because they were being told that if they do they will probably catch covid and die.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Does wearing a helmet make you immune from COVID?
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my new skies do. Blush ..i'm sure of it..well fairly certain....well probably...maybe...no actually Confused
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
a Jager on the Lift is definitely a preventative measure , and also Improves your ability to ski wink
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I never quite understood why some of the other services, like cancer screening and treatments had to stop. I would have expected some contingency in the plans that they had already prepared after the SARS scare.

I understand that it was risky to attend hospital sites, but why not move the facilities?

As an example, West Bromwich football club offered their function suites to the Health Service. Within a couple of days, the entire maternity suite had been transfered to a safe area, but still only a mile or so from A&E in case of complications.

There were plenty of private hospitals where these services could, and maybe should have been carried out. There was always a slight risk a patient might take Covid in, but they would have had precautions. The risk must have been lower than Hospitals full of cases.
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thefatcontroller wrote:
Does wearing a helmet make you immune from COVID?
It can hardly make you any less safe, so it is clearly a wise thing to do. Especially when in your car.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
my wife used to work in a seperate hospital many years ago called the 'infectious desease hospital' ...so when they closed that it was a bit odd, so they opened the nightgale wards...but still put everybody through the main hospitals...but heyho.

the infections rate is 100,000 per day according to a study by ICL... and doubling every 9 days...so herd immunity is already happening without having to announce it...all be done by xmas if you add all those with it from january onwards..so skiing might still happen Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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@yorkshirelad, I like your optimism, and I'm sure your comment wasn't a serious one, but:

i) it's now thought that antibodies don't last more than ~6 months, so people who caught the virus in the first half of the year may not "count" towards the herd immunity threshold
ii) even if the above isn't correct, then the doubling rate will likely slow down over the coming weeks as the more recent suppression measures begin to have an effect
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denfinella wrote:
@yorkshirelad, I like your optimism, and I'm sure your comment wasn't a serious one, but:

i) it's now thought that antibodies don't last more than ~6 months, so people who caught the virus in the first half of the year may not "count" towards the herd immunity threshold
ii) even if the above isn't correct, then the doubling rate will likely slow down over the coming weeks as the more recent suppression measures begin to have an effect


I think that Imperial have done it (“it” being headline-grabbing press release with little explanation) again with this. What they’ve shown is that antibodies decline after infection, but not that immunity does - if immunity was as short-lived as they seem to be suggesting, then surely there’d be significant evidence of reinfection, given that tens (hundreds?) of millions of people have been infetcted worldwide. In fact there’s (I think) six proven cases of reinfection. Even if only 1% of those infected had caught it again then surely there’d be thousands and thousands? A boffin on the TV yesterday said that some vaccines (Whooping Cough, I think?) rarely produces detectable antibodies but does provide immunity.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
at present, they know very little about the virous compared to others... so we'll wait and see, for if the vaccine does not work then the economy and life is finished,...just think of the ramifications from never coming out of lockdown!!
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brianatab wrote:
A
boyanr wrote:

Furthermore, it is even more stupid to force those 10-20% that have already went through the virus and have immunity to stay at home... There are 20-stg documented reinfection cases out of 40 mln. - I think we can accept this risk and let those people be free?


Firstly, 10-20% is dreamland.


If, having done all that, are you seriously suggesting that I should be "rewarded" by being exempt from all the rules, and be allowed to carry on with my "normal" life, including holidays? (good luck getting a flight)


In London I'd say it's well over 10-20%, judging by my friends in the 20-50 age range. In the halcyon days when [garden] parties were permitted the conversation always was 'How was it for you?' and I'd say the majority of people had had it. For the ones who hadn't had it, it seems likely they had some exposure to it so obtained immunity. Indeed I know one person who was in the Imperial antibodies trial who had antibodies but didn't think she'd had Covid (though she'd isolated whilst her flatmate did have it).

And I'd say the high (whatever I mean by that but it's a lot more than the well under 10% that you suggest) immunity levels in London explain why London is well behind the north of England. The North never had it in March/April. And the poor areas of London currently have much lower rates than the wealthier areas - because the poor parts had it in March/April.

A friend who started as an A&E house officer in June in a hospital in north London says she still hasn't seen a single covid patient.


So, you call it "reward". I think the reward is for the economy; who cares how people behaved (though everybody I know followed the rules). If there's no economy, there's no NHS and we will all die of poverty anyway.
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wnhall wrote:
a Jager on the Lift is definitely a preventative measure , and also Improves your ability to ski wink


In fact Dr J is the best prevention during ski trips!
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