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Is the 2020/2021 a non starter?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@snowdave, how utterly stupid!

- take paracetamol
- makes no odds in a tiny box
- if someone coughs it'll float about regardless
- WHO don't support them

This is like all the security checks at the airport: theatre to make people feel better, and to keep the government happy. How many years will it be before we're allowed liquids on planes again? Pub closing times didn't change until Thatcher and they were brought in during WW1. This nonsensical crap is going to stay for years.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
'Switzerland's borders with France, Germany and Austria will reopen on June 15. Federal Councilor Karin Keller Sutter announced Wednesday after the Federal Council meeting. The positive development of the coronavirus pandemic allows this. This decision was taken jointly with the interior ministers of the three countries concerned, said Keller-Sutter. France, Germany and Austria are currently in a period of deconfinement and present a situation similar to Switzerland at the epidemiological level. The Federal Council will specify the details of this reopening on May 27.' Martigny Nouvelliste, yesterday (13.5.2020)

Notably, not the Swiss-Italian border, although discussions are underway. This follows the Federal Exit Plan announced earlier and specific instructions for operating cafés and restaurants with distancing and hygiene measures. The Verbier-La Tzoumaz-Val des Bagnes area is also opening-up the télécabines for summer, and offering extended travel passes for visitors (free travel for pedestrians, 50% discount for VTT, with revised, distance-oriented activities). So overall it looks like they're keen to open up asap. Of course, in the summer, footfall is much lower than in the winter: having a télécabine to yourselves is the norm. I really don't know how it could conceivably be healthy to share a gondola with anyone else so I'm sceptical about this for the winter, but who knows, they may be using the summer to work out the logistics of moving people safely when it's much busier. And I could see how you might make chairlifts work: keep a seat between people/groups, and perhaps it's easier to queue with skis on - a single line and queue tip-to-tail? I can see distancing working during the quiet weeks in CH - in the 4 Vallées the footfall might well be low enough that queues would only be mildly disruptive. But I can't see it working in the school holiday weeks. And of course, activities that don't rely on using the lifts, like snowshoeing and cross-country skiing wouldn't be affected much.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I particularly liked snowdave report on aigulle de midi with everyone facing away from each other - sounds like what they used to say about economists - if you put them all in one room they will all be facing in different directions. So, in perverse logic all travellers to the aigulle de midid are economists. I will now shut up!
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peanuthead wrote:
I think it will definitely be possible to ski next year, but probably a different experience. Mainly due to need socially distance lift queues and limit gondolas to people from same household only, maybe cable cars wont be going. Social distancing in eating areas could be problem in busy half board accommodations. Pick somewhere with lots of drags/chairs, self catering, in low season

Perhaps there will also be some restrictions on accommodation, because people are going to be wary of rooms that might have been occupied 12 hour earlier by someone with the virus - and standard cleaning routines in hotels /chalets / apartments are never going to be sufficient to disinfect all surfaces. E.g. a fallow period between bookings, with hotels alternating their rooms from week to week; and apartments and chalets leaving every other week empty. Chalet companies could also insist on filling chalets from a single booking, and alternate their staff between two chalets from week to week.

It would put upward pressure on prices, but also be an easy way of keeping numbers down to reduce pressure on uplift.
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Resorts could also control numbers by restricting the sale of lift passes.
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Gordyjh wrote:
Resorts could also control numbers by restricting the sale of lift passes.
For weekly visitors this would be more tricky.... if every room is occupied, how would they choose which 50% get to ski? But I can see them restricting the sale of day passes.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@ecureuil, easy, you double the price of a lift pass and the population sorts it out amongst themselves as to who will ski (not every room will be occupied)
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
My thoughts at this stage are that the European ski season next year will be:-

1. Austria/ Bavaria/ Switzerland - AUT/ D/ LUX and CH skiers allowed, possibly Denmark, Czech and maybe Hungary/ Balkans only allowed in controlled by health screening app, only hotels and self service restaurants open. No UK, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Ireland.....ie, all the countries who didn't manage Covid effectively enough (in their eyes, in reality if they keep borders shut they are entitled to do whatever they like).
2. France - all allowed incl UK/ Belgium/ Holland/ Spain etc but social distancing measures in place, nightmare to control
3. Spain/ Andorra - their country folk only
4. Italy - same as France

I hope i'm wrong but that's the way I think it'll pan out.
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@Markymark29, The German/French border is currently under discussion and looks like it might open in the next month as with the others. Restaurants will start to open tomorrow, so that's not really a concern. CH and D are on a similar schedule regarding openings (not sure about the others). Otherwise, that is how it is currently looking for summer, though that may well have all changed by winter. These things are being planned about 6 weeks out at the moment, so December openings should become clearer around October.

Dunno about an app, borders open means borders open, though there might be some spot checks (but there are anyway on some of them). There's not much discussion about that here, and people seem to be fairly resistant to it because:
1. Tech-wise, they're about 5 years behind the UK in a lot of areas
2. People are very wary of anything that has a sniff of the Stasi about it
3. They've contained and controlled the virus very effectively so far without an app.
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@Scarlet, yebbut re 3 they soon ran us out of town and won’t be too happy to see us back with all our Boris developed virus’s imv, maybe our bags of cash might tempt them....obvs I hope so, I’m in deep for end August £2k.....ish!
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@Markymark29, Oh yeah, there's no plan's for letting the Brits in just yet! Nor the Italians, and there will be a lot more pressure on that border, so I'd wait and see what happens there. But that's nothing to do with apps.
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@Markymark29, I think that's my worst case (well our real worst case is our leadership fails demonstrably to get it under control such that even France bars us as a plague island but I still have some residual hope that some competence will emerge from the swamp of bluster and bluff).

Beyond that I don't know - COVID might do us a favour and just bug off naturally I suppose. An effective vaccine might be deployed. If the plague island scenario plays out we're all f**ked anyway and skiing will probably be the least of our concerns - how long we have to quarantine on migration to other countries might be more to the forefront of peoples' minds.
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Germany is running less than 1,000 new cases of Covid 19 per day, and about 100 deaths per day.

The UK is so far behind - more than 3,000 new cases every day and 500ish deaths per day. It will be a long time until the likes of Austria open the borders to UK residents.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

500ish deaths per day


Reported on that day - deaths have occurred over a variety of days in the previous weeks. It's am important distinction to make
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Yea but, what's the population of UK?

If you look at the case/million population, UK isn't anywhere near the top of Europe.

Granted, some argue UK may or may not be at peak yet.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
abc wrote:
Yea but, what's the population of UK?

If you look at the case/million population, UK isn't anywhere near the top of Europe.

Granted, some argue UK may or may not be at peak yet.


From what I can see we are not exactly doing well in the deaths/million stakes being higher than France and only just behind Italy!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Android2000 wrote:


The UK is ... more than 3,000 new cases every day and 500ish deaths per day. It will be a long time until the likes of Austria open the borders to UK residents.


Funny really seeing as the EU has just served notice on the UK to comply with EU Freedom of Movement irregularities ….. “The Commission considers that the United Kingdom has thereby breached the Free Movement Directive 2004/38/EC as well as EU rules on freedom of movement of EU citizens (Article 21 TFEU), freedom of movement of workers (Article 45 TFEU) and freedom of establishment (Article 49 TFEU).

The UK has 4 months to comply!

As regards the UK tested positive cases per day, the current Fatality Rate is 14.4%. Suggesting that the UK will continue to see 400-500 deaths on average per day if the tested positive ranges +/- 3000 per day. The UK is currently reporting the most newly tested positive rate in Western Europe.

There are modelling estimates regarding the first day where we might expect zero deaths in the UK, this will be July 30.


This doesn't include the chance of a 'second wave' when an outbreak could spread again.
By using death toll data up to Sunday (May 10), when 536 people lost their lives to the virus, as well as data from the beginning of March, IHME projects the number of deaths will fall below 400 a day by Wednesday (May 20).
The UK is projected to fall below 100 deaths a day by June 14, while the first day zero deaths will be in the expected range is July 30.
The IHME projection only runs until August.

Still on target for 75,000 deaths by September, with 100,000 by Xmas.

In order to have international travel again, the UK must reduce these damning numbers!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:

the current Fatality Rate is 14.4%

14.4% of what, @skimastaaah? The Case Fatality Rate is usually reckoned, AFAIK, to be the percentage of mortality of all those infected. Personally, I don't reckon that we can expect COVID deaths to be "zero" for any length of time, here or in the rest of Europe, for the foreseeable future. In Germany, for example, the death rate is currently rising sharply, as you might expect. The WHO warned today that we must learn to live with Covid on a long term basis, as we live with HIV. And, indeed, flu - despite the existence of a moderately effective system for flu vaccinations.
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peanuthead wrote:
I think it will definitely be possible to ski next year, but probably a different experience. Mainly due to need socially distance lift queues and limit gondolas to people from same household only, maybe cable cars wont be going. Social distancing in eating areas could be problem in busy half board accommodations. Pick somewhere with lots of drags/chairs, self catering, in low season


Yes, any planned resort investment in a new gondola might now be ripe for review. Quieter resorts, with avoidable gondolas/cable cars would seem attractive. Suggestions?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
pam w wrote:
Quote:

the current Fatality Rate is 14.4%

14.4% of what, @skimastaaah? The Case Fatality Rate is usually reckoned, AFAIK, to be the percentage of mortality of all those infected. Personally, I don't reckon that we can expect COVID deaths to be "zero" for any length of time, here or in the rest of Europe, for the foreseeable future. In Germany, for example, the death rate is currently rising sharply, as you might expect. The WHO warned today that we must learn to live with Covid on a long term basis, as we live with HIV. And, indeed, flu - despite the existence of a moderately effective system for flu vaccinations.


The mortality rate of all those infected is the Infection Fatality Rate, the IFR. This vital number remains a matter of debate, but data (e.g. Diamond Princess) suggests c. 1-2%. This is the "useful" number.

The CFR is the mortality rate of all those tested positive, which is, naturally, hugely skewed by testing. This is the relatively useless number that keeps getting overused.

The massive debate between lockdown cynics and most of the rest of the healthcare/science community remains the IFR - I've seen suggestions it's as low as 0.37% (for which I am deeply suspicious of the quality of antibody test involved). Now the Roche and Abbott antibody tests are available at scale, we'll start to see proper IFR data.
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@pam w, The current Fatality Rate in the UK of those tested positive to Covid-19 is 14.4% as stated on the https://coronavstats.co.uk/ daily updated for UK Covid-19 Statistics. These figures are NOT based on "all those infected", but on those tested positive in the UK testing programme. More worrying is the 50% mortality rate of those patients requiring ICU and ventilation machines.

As of 14/05/2020 - Total infections tested positive is 233,151 in the UK. Total deaths is 36,614. That's 14.42%. 3,439 Infections per million population. 495 deaths per million population. The UK is second highest death rate globally (after USA). Highest death rate in Europe. Highest rate of new cases in Europe at 3,446.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Quote:

Total infections tested positive is 233,151 in the UK. Total deaths is 36,614. That's 14.42%


I don't think you can read much into that though - as there are possibly millions who haven't been tested or died
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Quote:

The UK is second highest death rate globally (after USA)


On numbers, but from your link in deaths per million we are behind Belgium, France, Italy and pretty much level with France
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@snowdave, You've made valid and important point regarding the CFR which is most certainly skew-wiff!

The damning point of the 14.4% is that some one testing positive in the UK testing programme has a 1 in 7 chance of dying! Critically this shows that the actual rate of infection (IFR) is more likely to be 10 times the number testing positive. That's approaching 2.5 million.

Without a more effective testing/trace programme I doubt the EU countries will want UK travellers. Hence the Brussels legal challenge.

"The EU, under it's plan for a tourism comeback, wants countries with similar corona infection levels to relax common border closures first. This ahead of a full though gradual return to travel freedom Europe-wide. Tourist corridors between neighboring countries will allow holidaymakers to travel freely, with strict safety measures in place every step of the way. Such an approach is better geared to Europe’s varied COVID-19 landscape says the EU, than blanket rules on reopening internal borders at the same pace.
“Tourism bubbles” between two or more countries, even those that are geographically distanced such as Denmark and Greece, should see people travel–by road, train or plane –to Europe's holiday resorts, yet skip quarantine on arrival.
As to non-Europeans, with the EU travel ban on foreigners now extended until June 15, few airlines flying, and travel advisories worldwide warning against all international travel, the chance of visiting Europe before autumn is iffy."
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@Boris, Belgium is an anomaly. So is Germany. There's a dozen countries with fatalities higher than China. Russia with 16 deaths per million population, but 250,000 positive infections, third highest globally.
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@skimastaaah, the Brussels legal challenge is because we have only allowed France an exemption travel to UK and not all EU countries. It, they claims, breaches freedom of movement rules. They would be hard pushed to deny entry to EU from UK as the EU rules still apply until end 2020

As for visiting Europe in the autumn - I reckon England will still be part of Europe, unless there is a huge continental drift
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@skimastaaah, how can you say that - is it because the figures don't match your doom and gloom message
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One of the big unknowns is the extent to which this will be seasonal. If there is a resurgence in November/December, as there is every year with flu, then many European countries could have a partial lockdown in Q1 2021, since there won't be a vaccine by then. We will perhaps get a feel for this by what happens in the southern hemisphere over the summer.
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You know it makes sense.
Boris wrote:
@skimastaaah, how can you say that - is it because the figures don't match your doom and gloom message


Not at all. My very real concern is that the UK's approach has been on the whole catastrophic.

Spending two weeks championing "herd immunity", anyone with a calculator could work out 500,000 possible fatalities. A U-turn regarding mass meetings, after Cheltenham racing, naturally. The UK should have immediately shutdown and quarantined London, Birmingham and Liverpool. Sadly BoJo has pursued randomised "science based" strategies, lacked the pro-active preparation despite WHO. AND over 18 million recent UK traveller arrivals with no testing. The only "doom and gloom" is for the 17.4 million Brexit Voters who fell for the stupidity of BoJo/Gove, and then the electorate for increasing that support in a new government. The "doom" is well entrenched in Johnson's moronic sound-bites!
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Quote:

The damning point of the 14.4% is that some one testing positive in the UK testing programme has a 1 in 7 chance of dying!

Stated like that, @skimastaaah, that's a piece of nonsense. What about the very different figures which would be thrown up by countries with very different testing regimes? Or do you think there's something about Brits, or the way our health service is treating us, which makes us much more vulnerable than other populations?

Given the way testing was working (e.g. only people showing positive symptoms of Covid in care homes were eligible for testing until comparatively recently) your "fatality per 1000 positive tests" measure is essentially meaningless.

Yes, Covid is a very dangerous disease for people in certain groups - and we are still discovering exactly who they are, and why there are such big differences (e.g. between men and women). But plucking a few scary statistics out of the mass of reliable data which is building up, day by day, doesn't contribute much.
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@skimastaaah, on not going to argue with that, but the deaths per million are the stats. I can’t see how you can dismiss them
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The only time we will see who has had the most deaths will be this time in two years when we can see the total of excess deaths. Some countries will have an older average age, more fat unfit people, more people with diabetes and more people with darker skins, all of these increase the risk of death.
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@pam w, Not "my" figures. The UK is an over-populated small island with high population density. The UK's response was stunningly slow, based on stupid science, and positively un-prepared.

@Boris, Not dismissing the deaths per million. Belgium's rate is worrying. So is the UK's.

@robs1, worryingly 25% of deaths in UK hospitals have been with Diabetes as an underlying condition. Diabetics represent 6% of UK population.
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And the non-Guardianista view (just for interest):

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8303639/DAN-HODGES-dont-worst-Covid-19-death-rate-Europe-wicked-pretend-do.html
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@skimastaaah, beware of the numbers. UK is reporting deaths from all locations of people dying WITH Covid 19. Other countries are reporting deaths in just hospital of people dying OF Covid 19. There is a big difference - deaths in care homes in Spain for example are huge but not in the reported numbers. A family member of mine died of vascular dementia at nearly 100 but, after death was tested and found to have Covid 19 despite no apparent symptoms - her death cert says Covid 19. Sadly I think a lot of countries are treating the death rate like the Premier League title race in reverse.

Quote:
The UK's response was stunningly slow, based on stupid science


The stupid science started life in China. It wasn't until truthful data came out of Italy that the scientists knew how to react.

Professor Chris Whitty is a Fellow of the Royal College of Physicians.
He is a Fellow of the Faculty of Public Health.
He is a Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences.
He is Chief Scientific Advisor at the Department of Health and Social Care.
He is head of the National Institute for Health Research.
He is a practicing NHS Consultant at University College London Hospitals.
He is a practicing NHS Consultant at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases.
He is a Professor of Physic at Gresham College.
He is also Chief Medical Officer for England and the Chief Medical Advisor to the Government.

Sir Patrick Vallance is a Bachelor of Science, a Bachelor of Medicine, and a Bachelor of Surgery. He has spent decades in medical research, as well as teaching at several Medical School.
He has been Registrar of the Academy of Medical Sciences.
He is a Fellow of the Royal College of Physicians.
He is a Fellow of the Royal Society.
He is a Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences.
He is also Chief Scientific Officer to the Government.


@skimastaaah is... please fill in your quals here:
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Quote:

Not "my" figures

But your dopey way of using them, @skimastaaah. Saying that someone has a 14.7% chance of dying of covid if they test positive in the UK suggests a major misunderstanding of what that number means. My chance of dying, right now, is a number which nobody knows - including me. But it is what it is, regardless of whether I have a test and (provided the facilities are there for me to have the optimum treatment) regardless of what country I'm in.
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skimastaaah wrote:
@snowdave, You've made valid and important point regarding the CFR which is most certainly skew-wiff!

The damning point of the 14.4% is that some one testing positive in the UK testing programme has a 1 in 7 chance of dying! Critically this shows that the actual rate of infection (IFR) is more likely to be 10 times the number testing positive. That's approaching 2.5 million.



2.5m would be about 4% of the population which is consistent with serology data from Spain, Idaho (I know, weird choice, but happens to have had IMO one of the highest quality serology studies run and properly published). However, that's total infected - most of those are no longer infectious, because we're through the (for now) peak.

However, most of the tests were run at a time when the NHS was testing only the sickest patients, so you're right, there was a high chance of dying if you tested positive at that time. The majority of people with suspected COVID were being refused tests. As I've said before, what I'd like to see (as a sign that we have testing and tracing under control) is a very low % of positive tests, to prove we're testing widely.

However, on a grimmer note, the 50% ICU fatality rate is probably too low. Data I've seen shows that only 20% of those who make it into ICU make it out alive. The 30% delta is explained by those now on long term ventilation.
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@snowdave, Stark figures, if not grim!

@pam w, my "dopey way of using" other peoples' published stats is open to whatever interpretation, don't shoot the messenger, these are grim facts. the "14.4%" figure is taken from UK government data, not my own made up shizzle! As is 26% Diabetes related deaths, as is 50% + ICU.
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Quote:

my "dopey way of using" other peoples' published stats is open to whatever interpretation

it's not open to the interpretation you put - that if you test positive in the UK you have a 14.7% chance of dying. 14.7% of a particular cohort, who were tested at a particular time, with particular rules in place, ultimately died. I'm not sure whether you have failed to understand the limitations of that data, or are deliberately mis-representing what it means. Dopey, either way.
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We will only know the true mortality rates for any Country when comparisons of total deaths can be made to previous annual averages.

There are a lot of factors in the fatality rate. Some are now becoming more apparent as time goes by, but many will need statistical analysis later.

However, we do know that there are some factors that affect mortality even without Covid 19. The most obvious is Obesity (more prevalent in UK than anywhere else in Europe), and the associated health problems (Diabetes, Heart and lung problems etc), but no matter how often we try to tell people, many refuse to change their lifestyles, and then whinge about the lack of help from the Govt.

(Apologies to the small minority of people who are Obese due to medical conditions rather than lifestyle or the condition due to Obesity)

It was announced today that Diabetes is a factor in 25% of deaths. How many of these were overweight? Analysis of ethnicity might give some insight into the apparent uneven death rates being discussed over the last couple of days.

Another factor appears to be Vitamin D deficiency, again known that some populations, or Countries have a bigger problem than others.

Full statistical analysis will be some time in coming, but there will be some preliminary figures available. These should be published, rather than the usual crap of "social inequalities" being touted.


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Thu 14-05-20 18:43; edited 1 time in total
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