 Poster: A snowHead
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@davidof,ii. an Israeli doctor has claimed that the virus has a 70 day lifespan irrespective of any measures taken. That is it appears and disappears in that timeframe.
Interesting in that policymakers "assume " the current restrictions are having the effect they predict. Are there any realistic comparators to judge the measures by?
Also, that all the rhetoric is of "flattening the curve" which for obvious reasons is highly desirable. Not much about reductions in mortality totals, yes loose discussion, but again they are unable to judge.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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If it has a 70-day lifespan then it should have bogged off by now surely
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Boris, Great scientific appraisal of the situation 
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| ski3 wrote: |
@davidof,ii. an Israeli doctor has claimed that the virus has a 70 day lifespan irrespective of any measures taken. That is it appears and disappears in that timeframe.
Interesting in that policymakers "assume " the current restrictions are having the effect they predict. Are there any realistic comparators to judge the measures by?
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I guess countries like Sweden or Holland or other countries with no lockdown.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/
it is just statistics though.
One of Macron's scientific advisors and Pr. Raoult in Marseille have claimed that Covid is seasonal though. That it will possibly reappear in the autumn after a summer lull.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| davidof wrote: |
| ski3 wrote: |
@davidof,ii. an Israeli doctor has claimed that the virus has a 70 day lifespan irrespective of any measures taken. That is it appears and disappears in that timeframe.
Interesting in that policymakers "assume " the current restrictions are having the effect they predict. Are there any realistic comparators to judge the measures by?
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I guess countries like Sweden or Holland or other countries with no lockdown.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/
it is just statistics though.
One of Macron's scientific advisors and Pr. Raoult in Marseille have claimed that Covid is seasonal though. That it will possibly reappear in the autumn after a summer lull. |
I can broadly see that the Times report has merit.
If we consider how many known people and reported total infections have been confirmed, then it just looks like there's a far greater infected pool (unrecognised) in action to reach each one of the confirmed. They are just spread so far geographically throughout our society to be plausible without extensive connections to distribute.
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@ski3, hard to reconcile the Israeli mathematician's comment about only a minor alteration in overall death rate with the actual stats from the UK here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020 The emergence of second-wave infections in Singapore is also in sharp contrast to his modelling.
The ONS data clearly shows c.6k "excess" weekly deaths - i.e. normally about 10k people die each week at this time of year, whereas in the most recent week for which there is data (w/e 3rd April), there were 16k deaths in the UK. Only c.3.5-4k of these were directly attributed to COVID, because tracking COVID deaths outside a hospital setting is very difficult - despite what the Government says, testing appears almost impossible to come by, even for medical professionals in high risk environments.
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Very interesting speculation. The "excess deaths" are impressive at the moment, but if it really did bog off, then seen in a longer series of statistics they wouldn't be so striking.
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| Weathercam wrote: |
Now I've put myself on a feckin diet and limited myself just to two glasses of red wine a night!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
Your liver thanks you !
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| snowdave wrote: |
| Only c.3.5-4k of these were directly attributed to COVID, because tracking COVID deaths outside a hospital setting is very difficult - despite what the Government says, testing appears almost impossible to come by, even for medical professionals in high risk environments. |
About 2.5K were "lung disease" which is an excess of 1K I think. We'll have to wait for the following weeks of data.
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@snowdave, I don't doubt the excess mortality in whichever way it is accounted for, more the effectiveness of significantly preventing more normal function in each country.
The excess is still there even with current measures in place.
More relevant to this thread though, are such tight measures in rural areas of France having any real impact on the viral spread? Or separately non travel between regions is the more effective in determining transmission characteristics and ultimate reach.
Surely if lockdown is effective, then removing it will set it off again. That doesn't seem to be the immediate case in those country which have not had severe restrictions, which seem to comply more with the 70 days observations.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Gendarmes here are allowing people to use a couple of the lower walking paths on the mountain. The best one doesn't help me as it's more than 1km/1h for me. On the other hand they are driving up and fining people on the Crête at 2100m.
I've decided to become more healthy for the 2nd month couldn't go on. Only drunk 2 days out of the last 10 or so. Trying to eat less and be more productive getting some jobs done.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Trying to eat less and be more productive getting some jobs done.
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I've not been eating that much, but I've been bad about "getting jobs done". Been sorting out planting of some big plants I ordered online - I really have no choice about that, and I hope if I get that done it'll give me the incentive to tackle other, indoor jobs, which need doing.
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| ski3 wrote: |
The excess is still there even with current measures in place.
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The excess deaths in the ONS stats arise from pre-lockdown. We won't know what effect lockdown has on _overall_ deaths for about another 3 weeks, because there is a lag from infection to death to data collation. Even in the NHS/DoH deaths data published daily, this reflects deaths reported on that date, not deaths occurring on that date, and there is a variable lag in that.
We'll only see excess deaths for the relevant time period in about 12 days time, if the ONS keeps to its current schedule.
Something (I believe it's current measures, Mr Israeli mathematician thinks its inevitable anyway) is flattening the curve in the UK - the demand on healthcare is abating a little; firsthand and secondhand reports from the frontline suggest it's now a bit better than it was a couple of weeks ago, and hospital beds are starting to free up.
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You know it makes sense.
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reports from the frontline suggest it's now a bit better than it was a couple of weeks ago, and hospital beds are starting to free up.
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I get the impression there are big regional variations. Things are still pretty quiet in some areas, but probably won't stay that way for long. Even in London some parts of the system are still under a lot of strain - my niece is part of a rota of GPs staffing a "Covid Centre" in N London, looking at people not currently ill enough to be sent to hospital, but too worrying to be told "stay at home" by telephone triage. That's only been open a few days but they are very busy. 12 hour shifts.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| snowdave wrote: |
| ski3 wrote: |
The excess is still there even with current measures in place.
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The excess deaths in the ONS stats arise from pre-lockdown. We won't know what effect lockdown has on _overall_ deaths for about another 3 weeks, because there is a lag from infection to death to data collation. Even in the NHS/DoH deaths data published daily, this reflects deaths reported on that date, not deaths occurring on that date, and there is a variable lag in that.
We'll only see excess deaths for the relevant time period in about 12 days time, if the ONS keeps to its current schedule.
Something (I believe it's current measures, Mr Israeli mathematician thinks its inevitable anyway) is flattening the curve in the UK - the demand on healthcare is abating a little; firsthand and secondhand reports from the frontline suggest it's now a bit better than it was a couple of weeks ago, and hospital beds are starting to free up. |
I can see the logic there, but isn't that illustrative of how a contrary view should be able to illuminate or provoke significant thoughts as to how effective a chosen strategy is.
The numbers may change during lockdown, but if we assume it's just because of lockdown that they change , then it leaves that action very vulnerable if it's not true. Or society vulnerable to it's effects IF that's not the way in which it diminishes.
Again IF it diminishes from it's own characteristics (70 day theory) we then falsely attribute our government's actions as successful.
Given that each country has taken different levels of isolation/movements etc, the incidence of occurrence would seem to suggest the timing and mortality is under the control of the virus attributes in matching an observed peak and fall almost perfectly. And not our own actions.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Bit of recent intel:
My pick-up left Chx yesterday about 2pm. Driver had a personal attestation saying he was working and the supplementary work attestation saying what he was upto (driving Chx to Calais, to repatriate vehicle, self and demo fleet) and signed off by me as a director of the company.
Absolutely zero dramas. 8hr drive. Saw not one gendarme the entire way. Last 4 hrs (so the evening) he was the least commercial vehicle he saw, everything else being big wagons, no cars.
Arrived at the tunnel and was for a while the only vehicle, eventually loaded with 3 or 4 others (this was about midnight).
No exceptional controls at all at the other end.
On it's way to Somerset so the driver can self isolate for a couple of weeks before getting the truck back oop north.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Obviously the above has nothing to do with death rates, but a page ago there was some chat about borders and movement between FR and UK.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@midgetbiker, it's about France which the above few tbh arent.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Claude B, +1
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| midgetbiker wrote: |
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I think generally in a small place they do.
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Bollox, don't defend the idiots. My Chx neighbour lives there year round. After 10years of driving the same Nissan he just bought a fancy new Range Rover, as he works in CH he bought it there. He's now terrified it will get vandalised outside his own apartment (we park in a public car park) by the 'see you next Tuesday' with the spray can.
Luckily my UK reg truck that I can't get back to collect has been moved by a friend to a private drive where it should be safe. |
Apparently Monsieur Le Dickhead has been caught, well done brigade de Chx!
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| midgetbiker wrote: |
Apparently Monsieur Le Dickhead has been caught, well done brigade de Chx! |
Good. I'm sure a lot of locals would be horrified at the message it sends to tourists even if they should not be there.
French seem to be backing away from widespread testing and moving towards compulsory masks for the exit.
Also reports that French (and British) authorities think the virus may have from a Chinese lab in Wuhan where they were experimenting with it to make a vaccine and made it much more dangerous in the process. Macron hinted at this in a Financial Times interview today "There are clearly things that have happened in Wuhan that we don’t know about"
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I read into that some of the inhumane practises they may have used to contain it.
I was talking to a friend, a nurse in a hospital South of Vienne last night. She said it had been a covid centre since the start. It has been very hard and at first they didn't have the equipment they needed. She said also she is immune so she must have had it, been tested or both I guess. Difficult as she speaks zero English.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
how the f**k will obese be defined
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BMI, I guess - see the main Coronavirus thread in Apres - need BMI of under 35 to be admitted to the Excel Nightingale in London, which is for younger victims with reasonable chance - the less hopeful cases to stay in main hospitals. At least according to Peston on Twitter.
However, recognising obesity is a damn sight easier than identifying, say, heart failure. Other conditions, too, are a matter of degree. You can be a little bit fat or a lot fat. Or have mild heart failure or almost terminal heart failure.
Triage is a matter of taking a whole lot of factors into account to reach a decision on whether someone has the clinical need for critical care and the capacity to benefit from it. And if there isn't enough to go round - who can benefit from it most quickly.
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@Claude B, or hopefully 70 - that said think my OH who is 65+ would almost take great delight in running past the plod and seeing whether they'd have the cojones to pull her up.
One of the reasons why we like living in our bubble is that you don't see any unhealthy specimens especially up our end of the valley which is nigh on a ghost town at the moment as it is all chalets and apartments either for rental or second homes and there are only a handful of people occupying them.
I went down into Briancon twice yesterday, where I accidentally met KenX, in the car park of the supermarket for a catch-up, then had to go back home and return as I'd left my money-off vouchers.
Have to say many a white van and builders truck going about their business and various building projects/refurbs going on.
But this life is very bizarre and even now after 30 days of it I still find it weird, and how things like "faire la bise" will probably now be the stuff of memories and will mask-wearing be predominately prevalent like in Japan prior to the virus, and how back in Feb when we were last there we were making jokes about buying masks!!!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Lots of smaller building projects restarted early here. The bigger ones rely on Eastern European labour and are still mothballed. I suspect this will delay completion of those.
It's like inter season on speed really. At least then there are a few more people around and a few bars and restaurants open. And of course no restrictions on movement.
I drove to the supermarket yesterday afternoon (I usually walk). Took the car on a bit of a tour to try to charge the battery. Some guy gesticulated angrily at my uk plate
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Senior citizens will be not confined to their home after May 11, Emmanuel Macron announced on Friday evening.
The President has acted swiftly after growing unrest by the country’s elderly population in the wake of his speech on Monday. He announced that the vulnerable and the elderly would be asked to remain in confinement after May 11 to avoid the risks posed by Covid-19.
However, the President announced last night that senior citizens will not be restricted as he did not wish to ‘discriminate’ and called on each citizen to act ‘responsibly’ once confinement is lifted.
The debate on whether senior citizens should be confined longer has intensified over the course of the week. On Wednesday, Professor Jean-François Delfraissy, head of the scientific committee advising the government, told the Assemblée Nationale that people ‘above 65 years or 70’ should remain in confinement.
He added: "I am extremely clear: if we do not have the prerequisites we must remain confined and if we have to delay by a few days because we are not ready, we will have to delay by a few days.”
https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/No-extra-confinement-for-senior-citizens
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You know it makes sense.
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@Weathercam, they’re relying on you to act “responsibly” 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Quote: |
if we do not have the prerequisites
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Which are? If health facilities are managing OK there is arguably no reason to keep old people locked up against their will - for what is bound to be months.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Weathercam wrote: |
[/b]
The President has acted swiftly after growing unrest by the country’s elderly population in the wake of his speech on Monday. He announced that the vulnerable and the elderly would be asked to remain in confinement after May 11 to avoid the risks posed by Covid-19. |
That's what we call a "pompier pyromane". Start a fire then expect praise for putting it out again.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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That's what we call a "pompier pyromane"
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Love it. Will have to find an opportunity to use it in one of my U3A French sessions. I did manage to introduce "enculeur de mouches" recently, having been waiting for an opportunity forever.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Ok @pam w, what's it mean then?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@andy1234, @pam w, that's one of my fave French phrases!
"To ass-f*ck flies", or nit-picking as we say in English 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@fixx, 
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well you did ask, @andy1234, Enculeur is the noun = a nit picker
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Snowheads is nothing but an education @fixx, @pam w, if you'll pardon me defining something against nothing
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Thats enculer totally different to enculeur
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@Claude B,
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FAQ
