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What I hope is that this serves as a wake-up call to heed warnings about other health threats which are as/more serious and were even thought more likely. In particular, antibiotic resistance and the long-term effects of anti-vaccination propaganda. Medics have been saying for some time that the odds are increasing of seeing quite common illness-causing bacteria that are completely resistant to all current antibiotics. And anti-vaccination gullibility means that we're close to losing the herd immunity of what were once very serious illnesses like measles, mumps and rubella. And next time Parliament votes on a pay increase for nurses, perhaps we won't see all those Tory MPs clapping because they rejected it?
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LaForet wrote:
What I hope is that this serves as a wake-up call to heed warnings about other health threats which are as/more serious and were even thought more likely.


The government assessment was that a influenza-type pandemic was the single most disruptive event facing the UK today. As such it remains at the top of the UK Government National Risk Register. Despite this assessment, the government rejected the advice to stockpile sufficient PPE for frontline healthcare workers as it would be too expensive. If that was their assessment for the No.1 risk, there's less chance of addressing other health threats unless there is a fundamental rethink at the highest levels of decision-making.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:

close to losing

??

In many localities, in Western world, already lost. rolling eyes rolling eyes
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Quote:

at the highest levels of decision-making

@rob@rar, therein lies the problem, the UK government are lost as sea, rudderless and heading us for the rocks, they are reacting not taking strategic decisions - easier to tell bald-faced lies all day long (nothing new from Gove and Bojo there) than actually planning and governing. Their lies around PPE, ventilators and testing frequency is costing lives......what I find incredible is that people actually think they are doing a great job!
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Markymark29 wrote:
therein lies the problem, the UK government are lost as sea, rudderless and heading us for the rocks, they are reacting not taking strategic decisions - easier to tell bald-faced lies all day long (nothing new from Gove and Bojo there) than actually planning and governing. Their lies around PPE, ventilators and testing frequency is costing lives......what I find incredible is that people actually think they are doing a great job!
A reasonable summary I think. Broadly I think the strategy as been the right one, perhaps because it was based firmly on advice from the scientists. But the general level of preparedness for an influenza-type pandemic, decisive and consistent messaging, and timely measures to address priorities seem to be all fairly hopeless. If only they'd invested as much political capital in stewarding the health of the country as they had done on Brexit perhaps we'd be in a better shape that we are right now.
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rob@rar wrote:
LaForet wrote:
What I hope is that this serves as a wake-up call to heed warnings about other health threats which are as/more serious and were even thought more likely.


The government assessment was that a influenza-type pandemic was the single most disruptive event facing the UK today. As such it remains at the top of the UK Government National Risk Register. Despite this assessment, the government rejected the advice to stockpile sufficient PPE for frontline healthcare workers as it would be too expensive. If that was their assessment for the No.1 risk, there's less chance of addressing other health threats unless there is a fundamental rethink at the highest levels of decision-making.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1244726326004715520.html
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Old Fartbag wrote:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1244726326004715520.html
Thanks, hadn't seen his comments.
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Quote:

what I find incredible is that people actually think they are doing a great job!




That would depend on what the "job" is, surely?

E.g: to some, it might be the mass slaughter of innocent lives for the greater good.
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Quote:

If only they'd invested the political capital squandered on Brexit in stewarding the health of the country we'd be in a better shape that we are right now.

@rob@rar,

FIFY
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Quote:

In particular, antibiotic resistance


That would make CV19 look like a picnic. But big bizniz for big Pharma.
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Do you think Boris is man enough to announce that Brexit is on hold until this is all sorted?
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rob@rar wrote:
Old Fartbag wrote:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1244726326004715520.html
Thanks, hadn't seen his comments.

This is worth a listen - and he mentions the modelling from Nobel Prize Winning Economist, Paul Romer (worth checking out) - where he explains the likely best way out of this Pandemic. https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/coronavirus-mass-testing-will-drag-us-out-of-lockd/
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altis wrote:
Do you think Boris is man enough to announce that Brexit is on hold until this is all sorted?


No: quite the reverse, unfortunately. It's a terrific excuse to pass-off all the downsides of our departing the EU onto a virus. And those dastardly Chinese, of course. The Govester is already laying the groundwork for the latter. He of the "people in this country have had enough of experts" approach, if you recall.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
rob@rar wrote:
...A reasonable summary I think. Broadly I think the strategy as been the right one, perhaps because it was based firmly on advice from the scientists. But the general level of preparedness for an influenza-type pandemic, decisive and consistent messaging, and timely measures to address priorities seem to be all fairly hopeless. If only they'd invested as much political capital in stewarding the health of the country as they had done on Brexit perhaps we'd be in a better shape that we are right now.
He said they were "lost at sea", you're saying that their strategy is the right one, whilst apparently agreeing with him.

On your second point regarding "preparedness"... It's not that the risk wasn't understood, it's just that it was not acceptable to most people to deal with it until it's manifested itself. It's a sort of tragedy of the commons, but different. There's ample evidence for this in the time it took for people to realize and accept that the world had actually changed. As individuals, most of us did not close our businesses down and sell all our stocks and houses ahead of the pandemic, for the same reason.

The idea that Brexit somehow displaced something which would have made a difference seems to fly in the face of the obvious facts.

Still, if any Brexiteers survive they'll certainly not be wanting to hold a referendum once this is done.
I agree with LF that it's a great way to hide the financial damage of Brexit - the Tories are away for free and laughing all the way.
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philwig wrote:
He said they were "lost at sea", you're saying that their strategy is the right one, whilst apparently agreeing with him.
Sure. The general direction the government set out in is the right one, IMO, but their execution of that strategy has not been competent. I see no contradiction in those two observations.

philwig wrote:
On your second point regarding "preparedness"... It's not that the risk wasn't understood, it's just that it was not acceptable to most people to deal with it until it's manifested itself. It's a sort of tragedy of the commons, but different. There's ample evidence for this in the time it took for people to realize and accept that the world had actually changed. As individuals, most of us did not close our businesses down and sell all our stocks and houses ahead of the pandemic, for the same reason.
Agreed, although I think it is the job of government to prepare for such scenarios, rather than simply act as individuals might.

philwig wrote:
The idea that Brexit somehow displaced something which would have made a difference seems to fly in the face of the obvious facts.
I was making a comparison in how political capital has been invested. I'm not saying that Brexit stopped proper preparations from taking place, simply observing the difference in priorities.
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under a new name wrote:
@davidof, crikey, that's a big mortality, from where we are now.

I note that the "new" numbers seem slowly to be slowing down, as you would hope they would given lockdown.


yes it does, we're currently running at 400 dead / day. I think the issue with all these figures, and as the person who did those calculations pointed out, there has not been enough random testing and small differences in the mortality rate can make big differences.
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[quote="Markymark29"]
Quote:
the UK government are lost as sea, rudderless and heading us for the rocks, they are reacting not taking strategic decisions - easier to tell bald-faced lies all day long (nothing new from Gove and Bojo there) than actually planning and governing. Their lies around PPE, ventilators and testing frequency is costing lives......what I find incredible is that people actually think they are doing a great job!


I completely disagree (so I guess you find me incredible)!

I think the UK government have done an outstanding job. Their strategy to stagger each phase has been commendable. It is much easier to understand each instruction if they are introduced in a structured manner, rather than thrown at us in one go. Also, the decision to delay the full lockdown reduces the effects of lockdown fatigue. Our TOTAL death toll is not far from the DAILY death toll of other countries, so they must be doing something right!

Look at how the US is managing their response. Their strategy is haphazard and badly communicated.

I've never been a fan of BJ but I have to admit I do miss his daily briefings. He delivers an upbeat and succinct appraisal of the situation. Since his lockdown we've been treated to dreary ramblings from messrs Gove, Raab and Sunak.
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Sorry, but the people who are doing things right are the experts, medics and nurses. No thanks to the government. Whose MPs clapped when they turned down a pay rise for the nurses and whose view of experts was that "people in this country have had enough of experts". A government who oversaw the premature departure of 10,000 EU nurses and clinicians in 2017 alone, thanks to their anti-EU Brexit propaganda. 10,000 nurses and clinicians who mainly weren't replaced and who we could really use now. Ten years of Austerity have seen the virtual disappearance of our Crisis Management teams at the regional and local level. SO pardon me, but no, not impressed by anyone in our government. Hugely impressed by how our berated public sector and NHS have sacrificed themselves in the face of a decade of Government antipathy and underfunding.
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Quote:

altis wrote:


Do you think Boris is man enough to announce that Brexit is on hold until this is all sorted?






No: quite the reverse, unfortunately. It's a terrific excuse to pass-off all the downsides of our departing the EU onto a virus. And those dastardly Chinese, of course. The Govester is already laying the groundwork for the latter. He of the "people in this country have had enough of experts" approach, if you recall.

Quite ironic that it is all the people who BJ didnt want in this country from EU etc that are now working their socks off for him, care workers/ NHS junior staff/ supermarket workers/ delivery drivers/ lorry drivers etc etc - I hope they get some recognition long term when this is all over.


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Tue 31-03-20 15:06; edited 1 time in total
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Quote:

Sorry, but the people who are doing things right are the experts, medics and nurses. No thanks to the government. Whose MPs clapped when they turned down a pay rise for the nurses and whose view of experts was that "people in this country have had enough of experts". A government who oversaw the premature departure of 10,000 EU nurses and clinicians in 2017 alone, thanks to their anti-EU Brexit propaganda. 10,000 nurses and clinicians who mainly weren't replaced and who we could really use now. Ten years of Austerity have seen the virtual disappearance of our Crisis Management teams at the regional and local level. SO pardon me, but no, not impressed by anyone in our government. Hugely impressed by how our berated public sector and NHS have sacrificed themselves in the face of a decade of Government antipathy and underfunding.

@LaForet, +1 well said
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@LaForet, + another one.
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@jellylegs,
Quote:

I completely disagree (so I guess you find me incredible)!

Not incredible.......how about gullible, misguided and dillusional?
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oh gawd another freakin' brexit rantfest

I can't even go out for popcorn.
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@Markymark29, Thanks! I'm sure you're perfect.
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@jellylegs, not so, but I don’t believe propaganda and BS that the government media machine pump out!
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davidof wrote:
oh gawd another freakin' brexit rantfest


For some, it's a rantfest perhaps, for at least as many, it's called Facing Up to the Consequences of Your Decisions. The 2017 Annual Reports of both the BMA and the Nursing & Midwifery Council, both said that a combined total of 10,000 EU NHS nurses and clinicians went home early from their contracts, compared to a usual rate of around 3-500. So by all means, disagree with me and claim this had no impact on services. But please don't just get huffy when presented with the facts.
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LaForet wrote:
The 2017 Annual Reports of both the BMA and the Nursing & Midwifery Council, both said that a combined total of 10,000 EU NHS nurses and clinicians went home early from their contracts, compared to a usual rate of around 3-500.
Contributing to more than 43,000 unfilled nurse vacancies across the NHS. Currently, the government is appealing for retired healthcare workers to return to the NHS to help with the crisis.
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LaForet wrote:
davidof wrote:
oh gawd another freakin' brexit rantfest


For some, it's a rantfest perhaps, for at least as many, it's called Facing Up to the Consequences of Your Decisions. The 2017 Annual Reports of both the BMA and the Nursing & Midwifery Council, both said that a combined total of 10,000 EU NHS nurses and clinicians went home early from their contracts, compared to a usual rate of around 3-500. So by all means, disagree with me and claim this had no impact on services. But please don't just get huffy when presented with the facts.


^ the remoan is strong in this one.
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Gerry wrote:
the remoan is strong in this one.


Well, that's a really mature and useful response to the deaths of your fellow-citizens due to an unprecedented global pandemic highlighting the incompetence of Government policy over NHS funding.

Face up to the consequences of your decisions - tell me just what you propose to do about the 10,000 EU NHS nurses and clinicians we've lost and who in the main haven't been replaced? Or snipe, of course, if you have no answers.

Sniping it is, then.
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LaForet wrote:
altis wrote:
Do you think Boris is man enough to announce that Brexit is on hold until this is all sorted?


No: quite the reverse, unfortunately. It's a terrific excuse to pass-off all the downsides of our departing the EU onto a virus. And those dastardly Chinese, of course. The Govester is already laying the groundwork for the latter. He of the "people in this country have had enough of experts" approach, if you recall.


Its the perfect excuse.
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so how many of the critics of the governments' preparations made for any emergencies had a months stock of food, toilet rolls, hand sanitizer etc and candles in stock. Not many by the idiots panic buying.

I dont see much difference in the state of readiness in any country to be honest, just look at how countries stopped exports of masks and other PPE for example.

Look at the state of many very large companies pleading for a bail out and people claiming a week into the lockdown they have no money to pay for food etc

Its easy to carp from the sidelines and in hindsight
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LaForet wrote:
Gerry wrote:
the remoan is strong in this one.


Well, that's a really mature and useful response to the deaths of your fellow-citizens due to an unprecedented global pandemic highlighting the incompetence of Government policy over NHS funding.


You actually want this to be a catastrophe so you can whine about Brexit and the government.
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robs1 wrote:
so how many of the critics of the governments' preparations made for any emergencies had a months stock of food, toilet rolls, hand sanitizer etc and candles in stock.
The government's job is to be prepared. That's why we have one.
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@robs1, I quite agree at the poor state of preparedness of the population at large.

But "the government" is supposed to be staffed by smarter people! It should do a "better" job.

Quote:

Look at the state of many very large companies pleading for a bail out and people claiming a week into the lockdown they have no money to pay for food etc

I think that might be a bit harsh. "Large companies" such as airline and travel related business large and small, are hit by this with practically 100% lost of business. You can't plan for that level of disruption, or you have no profitability as all your revenue got stashed away in such "preparation". While some people should stash away a bit more of their money, many can't afford to. The low income workers don't have any money spare to stash.
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rob@rar wrote:
robs1 wrote:
so how many of the critics of the governments' preparations made for any emergencies had a months stock of food, toilet rolls, hand sanitizer etc and candles in stock.
The government's job is to be prepared. That's why we have one.


yeah, well they should have closed our borders as soon as China started locking down. You'd have cried your eyes out had they done that, though.
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Gerry wrote:
yeah, well they should have closed our borders as soon as China started locking down. You'd have cried your eyes out had they done that, though.
These are complex issues, do you think the government should follow World Health Organisation guidelines?
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rob@rar wrote:
Gerry wrote:
yeah, well they should have closed our borders as soon as China started locking down. You'd have cried your eyes out had they done that, though.
These are complex issues, do you think the government should follow World Health Organisation guidelines?


What I've noticed is that all those shitty countries, you know the ones that noone wants to go to, have very few case and even fewer deaths.
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Gerry wrote:
rob@rar wrote:
Gerry wrote:
yeah, well they should have closed our borders as soon as China started locking down. You'd have cried your eyes out had they done that, though.
These are complex issues, do you think the government should follow World Health Organisation guidelines?


What I've noticed is that all those shitty countries, you know the ones that noone wants to go to, have very few case and even fewer deaths.
Not yet.

Although I'm not sure that answered my question, about whether I should be crying my eyes out about cutting the UK off from the rest of the world. But hey ho.
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Unfortunately, Spending on preparation for a worldwide pandemic is not a great vote winner for any party.
The NHS has been stripped to the bone over the last ten years but the Tories still got a massive majority.

Alarming figures today from Spain Again, showing the peak way well be three weeks after lockdown. The UK is now counting deaths outside hospitals and it shows we are further down the track than we thought.

South Korea still shows a steady stream of new cases, many weeks after lockdown showing this thing is not going to go away quickly.

And it seems the best way to avoid letting this disease affect you too badly is speaking German as the mortality rate is significantly lower in Austria, Germany and German speaking Switzerland for nobody seems to have a full explanation. Until they do, I'm going to continue speaking throaty German all do to agitate the back of my throat and wee wee of any viruses trying grow there..
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rob@rar wrote:
Not yet.


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-developing-countries-inequality-debt-oxfam/
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