It's Official: Hard, Snowy Winter to Come (Updated for 2020/21)

A snowHead

I would really caution about any snow forecast in the UK 10 days ahead... that's much too far in advance to have confidence in anything that specific.

@Bigtipper, what was the source for the December 12th forecast, and if it's a random website (as opposed to weather models), where do they in turn get their information from?

From where I'm looking (GFS), there is some agreement on a reasonably cold spell - i.e. not very, very cold - next week, but no particular signal for snow on a particular day (which isn't surprising given the timescale). The operational run does go very cold around the 12th, but it's an outlier and all the other runs are warmer.

A snowHead

https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/ben_ledi

@denfinella, mathematically long term weather forecasting is unreliable and not precise. However that is precisely what climate change forecasters are doing. They predict trends based on past history, and modelling the future. The massive increase in computing power makes weather forecasting better, but it can make mistakes

I watch this website, and whilst the long term forecast is less reliable, it is usually in the right ballpark.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Trends, yes, but it was really the coupling of a specific date quite far in the future with specific weather which I was cautioning against. Climate change forecasters can predict a warming trend, but they can't say whether June 1st, 2022 will be cool or warm.

I'd also suggest that a max temperature of -1C on 12th December at the top of Ben Ledi isn't "very, very cold" - I would hazard a guess that it's about average for the time of year? Then there was the "significant snow" comment (not by you), which I do think is much too early to predict.

The trend does indeed seem to be for lower temperatures from this week to next. But that's just as much because of the mild start (i.e. even just the seasonal average next week would be colder than midweek this week), and I don't see "very, very cold" anywhere yet. I'm also not sure what model the site you linked uses. If, for example, it's derived from the GFS operational run, it will be forecasting temperatures which are lower than all the other GFS runs.

Having said all that... let it snow, and I hope you are correct! Very Happy

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You must have been looking at the wrong day @denfinella, the maximum on 12th December is -6C and the minimum is -10C. Heavy snow is expected on 11th December on Ben Ledi.

Very Happy

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@Bigtipper, it's changed now! Laughing

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@denfinella, O ye of little faith! That indisputable oracle of all things weather related the Daily Express wink

is warning of "Britain COVERED by 17 INCHES in election blizzard" Laughing

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1212457/uk-snow-forecast-charts-maps-weather-latest-met-office-weather-warnings-general-election

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Well then. That's me told! Laughing

After all it is free

Mean temperature for January 2020 2.1 degrees C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. Plenty of precipitation, but not as snow in January due to the above average temperatures. Sunshine was dreadful in January 2020 in Scotland. It can only get better, luckily the forecast is for snow and cold temperatures for the first half of February. Maybe, just maybe, but don't hope..... rolling eyes

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Looks like it is going to be very busy weekend 29/2, 1/3. This is a leap year Saturday, with forecast clear skies, low wind, very cold, and lots of snow falling prior to this weekend.

You might need to camp in the car park overnight to get a parking space! Laughing

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Mean temperature for February 2020 0.4 degrees C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 213% of the normal precipitation in Scotland compared to 1981-2010 average in February. It did fall as snow in ski resorts in Scotland, and the result is all resorts are open and more snow is forecast for the rest of March. The car park in Glencoe was almost completely full by lunchtime on 5/3/20. The snow pack is deep and should last most of March at least!

snow reports

Mean temperature for March 2020 0.0 degrees above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 88% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 110% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. Pretty much an average March in 2020 in Scotland compared to those 30 years averages.

Would have been a great month for skiing, if the resorts were not closed because of CV.

https://waqi.info/#/c/6.344/2.988/2z

This website maps all the world pollution and displays it in real time. You can zoom in to countries, and specific areas and check out the pollution over the last year and how it has changed since lockdown. Fascinating!

The nearest testing station to me (20 miles away) is good for all recorded levels of air pollution. It is good pretty much all the time over the last year. The location is one of the busiest roundabouts in a 50 mile radius from me. It does not measure pollen levels though, which do get high in spring and summer time (not to mention midgies)

You know it makes sense.

Mean temperature for April 2020 0.9C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 31% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 151% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2020 average in Scotland. An unusually dry sunny April in Scotland this year compared to those 30 years averages for April.

Could have been some sunbathing on this piste this April! Laughing

Instead, we have all been stuck at home watering the plants.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Mean temperature for May 2020 0.8C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 90% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 119% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2020 average in Scotland.

Another warmer, sunnier and drier month than normal in Scotland. However, the lack of rain in the UK is much worse than in Scotland. Less than half of the normal rainfall in April and May for the whole of UK. England and Wales are particularly dry in May at 17% of average.

This is the end of Spring now, and the start of summer. Whatever happens from here it looks like water will be in short supply in England and Wales this summer.

A snowHead

Apparently we have had more hours of sunshine this spring than we normally get in summer. The turnaround from the wet February to the very dry Spring is without precedent in uk weather history. A worrying sign. However if wet weather can get trapped for long periods and if sunny weather can get trapped then surely that doesn’t rule out cold weather Puzzled

A snowHead

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ETA - Looks like I was right about the regional differences even within Scotland

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@GreenDay, If the reservoirs are low, maybe give watering the grass a rest Very Happy

It recovers well.

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I am in the part where it is white. For the most part it was dry, however a great deal of rain fell over a few days and the river level shot up from almost a trickle to a level at which canoists would come down were it not for lockdown. Then the river has dried up again, so that it is at normal summer levels.

It looks like the West of Scotland has had a very dry time too. However, when some rain came to the west it came in large quantities.

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Good friend works / lives on one of the estates just south of Aviemore... they go by the rule of thumb that each mile E / W changes the annual rainfall total by 1"!!! So current observations seem to fit with what the locals say...

After all it is free

Mean temperature for June 2020 1.2C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 139% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 91% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2020 average in Scotland.

Another warmer month than normal in Scotland. However, the lack of rainfall has been remedied in June. Consequently, the sunshine averages are slightly lower than normal.

Vines are loving this weather, but the wind has dropped a few apples in the June drop period. (in Scotland)

July in Scotland was cooler than average, wetter than average, and more cloudy than average July's in Scotland. However, the start of August has been quite warm, and may be better than August in the most recent years. Apples look ready already, and I usually do not pick them until September. Veraison started earlier than last year on the inside grapes. Last year veraison on the outside grapes did not even start until the beginning of September, so this looks the same as last year but the warmer August looks promising.

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Going to be a very snowy winter in the Brecon Beacons National Park

You heard it here first Smile

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August in Scotland was pretty much average for Augusts between 1981-2010 for rainfall and sunshine. Mean temperature was ever so slightly higher (+0.5c) than August averages in Scotland.

This is good, apples are very red, but might bulk out a bit more and sweeten. Perhaps another week. Outside grapes are starting to show signs of getting bigger, and veraision (for the red grape variety). Looks like grapes are on the same timescale as last year.

No sign of the hard snowy winter to come yet!

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September in Scotland was fairly average for Septembers between 1981-2010 for mean temperature, average rainfall and sunshine.

I was hoping for a warmer sunnier start to October, but it looks like it is going to be a cold start to October. Veraision is continuing for the grapes on the outside. I am not very confident that the grapes are going to do well on the outside this year.

However, this is not too much of a problem as the inside grapes yielded the same as the total yield last year and so whatever the outside grapes produce will be a bonus.

It would be absolutely fantastic if we had a great winter season in the whole of the UK. Only a 6 hour return trip for me to Yad Moss.

You know it makes sense.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

@Mike Pow, just stumbled across one of your old posts - was the second link when googling for brecon beacon ski - some great photos:) - https://properadventure.co.uk/blogs/news/if-its-snowing-im-going-skiing-in-the-brecon-beacons-national-park-wales

A snowHead

A snowHead

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I'd be interested to see historic data on 'blown out days' in Scotland.
I know it's always been windy but the Uk seems to be getting increasingly more storms.

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Hoping for a great winter up here as looking increasingly unlikely for the Alps...........wonder if the poorer uplift infra will be a blessing as pomas are easy to socially distance !!

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@cameronphillips2000,

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@under a new name, used to go to Shee pretty much every week with school early to mid 80s.........lots of character was built

After all it is free

Don't really think there is much here to support overall the UK becoming windier - though maybe one needs to look further back.

Quarterly wind speed average in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2010 to 2019(in knots)

The alps seem to be getting windier. There seem to be more days lost each year to high wind events, particularly in the western alps and noticeably more snow fencing is getting built. That would fit with more energy in the atmosphere from a warmer planet and deeper areas of Atlantic low pressure.

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October in Scotland was again average for mean temperatures for Octobers compared to 1981-2010 averages. Unfortunately there was more rain and less sunshine than average, which meant no late ripening of what was left of the grapes on the outside after the birds ate the best ones.

The forecast over the next 10 days indicates it is going to get cold, and that there may be some snow coming by the end of November on the local hill at least. The local hill will be in level 4 (coronovirus restrictions until December 11th at least), so fine for me to get some exercise on it but not for any long distance travelers.

Help!!

It's Official: Hard, Snowy Winter to Come (Updated for 2020/21)

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