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It's Official: Hard, Snowy Winter to Come

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I would really caution about any snow forecast in the UK 10 days ahead... that's much too far in advance to have confidence in anything that specific.

@Bigtipper, what was the source for the December 12th forecast, and if it's a random website (as opposed to weather models), where do they in turn get their information from?

From where I'm looking (GFS), there is some agreement on a reasonably cold spell - i.e. not very, very cold - next week, but no particular signal for snow on a particular day (which isn't surprising given the timescale). The operational run does go very cold around the 12th, but it's an outlier and all the other runs are warmer.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/ben_ledi

@denfinella, mathematically long term weather forecasting is unreliable and not precise. However that is precisely what climate change forecasters are doing. They predict trends based on past history, and modelling the future. The massive increase in computing power makes weather forecasting better, but it can make mistakes

I watch this website, and whilst the long term forecast is less reliable, it is usually in the right ballpark.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Trends, yes, but it was really the coupling of a specific date quite far in the future with specific weather which I was cautioning against. Climate change forecasters can predict a warming trend, but they can't say whether June 1st, 2022 will be cool or warm.

I'd also suggest that a max temperature of -1C on 12th December at the top of Ben Ledi isn't "very, very cold" - I would hazard a guess that it's about average for the time of year? Then there was the "significant snow" comment (not by you), which I do think is much too early to predict.

The trend does indeed seem to be for lower temperatures from this week to next. But that's just as much because of the mild start (i.e. even just the seasonal average next week would be colder than midweek this week), and I don't see "very, very cold" anywhere yet. I'm also not sure what model the site you linked uses. If, for example, it's derived from the GFS operational run, it will be forecasting temperatures which are lower than all the other GFS runs.

Having said all that... let it snow, and I hope you are correct! Very Happy
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You must have been looking at the wrong day @denfinella, the maximum on 12th December is -6C and the minimum is -10C. Heavy snow is expected on 11th December on Ben Ledi.

Very Happy
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@Bigtipper, it's changed now! Laughing
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@denfinella, O ye of little faith! That indisputable oracle of all things weather related the Daily Express wink is warning of "Britain COVERED by 17 INCHES in election blizzard" Laughing

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1212457/uk-snow-forecast-charts-maps-weather-latest-met-office-weather-warnings-general-election
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Well then. That's me told! Laughing
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Bigtipper wrote:
Bigtipper wrote:
Since the OP, the October actuals are in. The UK has experienced on average 0.5 degrees centigrade below the 1981-2010 average mean temperature. Not particularly significant in itself, although much of that was at the end of October when it went sub zero.

November actuals look like they will be closer to 1 to 2 degrees below the 1981-2010 average, given the 15 day sub zero forecast for the first half of November.

However, more significantly Scottish averages look lower than the UK averages compared to 1981-2010 average. (down 0.8 C for October and looking like it is going to be very cold 2 weeks in Scottish ski resorts, certainly cold enough for outside snow making rather than using the fridges)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-anomaly-graphs


Mean temperature for November -1.4 degrees C below 1981-2010 average in Scotland. Unfortunately, precipitation was 62% of 1981-2010 average for Scotland. Meaning it was very cold in November, but not a lot of natural snowfall. However, conditions have been better than normal for snowmaking both in a fridge and outside snow making. Therefore the beginner pistes will be nearly there.

It's forecast to get very very cold by December 12th!! BRRR


Mean temperature for December 1.3 degrees C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. Plenty of precipitation, but sadly not enough as snow in December.

I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand!
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Mean temperature for January 2020 2.1 degrees C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. Plenty of precipitation, but not as snow in January due to the above average temperatures. Sunshine was dreadful in January 2020 in Scotland. It can only get better, luckily the forecast is for snow and cold temperatures for the first half of February. Maybe, just maybe, but don't hope..... rolling eyes
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Looks like it is going to be very busy weekend 29/2, 1/3. This is a leap year Saturday, with forecast clear skies, low wind, very cold, and lots of snow falling prior to this weekend.

You might need to camp in the car park overnight to get a parking space! Laughing
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Mean temperature for February 2020 0.4 degrees C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 213% of the normal precipitation in Scotland compared to 1981-2010 average in February. It did fall as snow in ski resorts in Scotland, and the result is all resorts are open and more snow is forecast for the rest of March. The car park in Glencoe was almost completely full by lunchtime on 5/3/20. The snow pack is deep and should last most of March at least!



Very Happy
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Mean temperature for March 2020 0.0 degrees above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 88% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 110% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. Pretty much an average March in 2020 in Scotland compared to those 30 years averages.

Would have been a great month for skiing, if the resorts were not closed because of CV.

https://waqi.info/#/c/6.344/2.988/2z

This website maps all the world pollution and displays it in real time. You can zoom in to countries, and specific areas and check out the pollution over the last year and how it has changed since lockdown. Fascinating!

The nearest testing station to me (20 miles away) is good for all recorded levels of air pollution. It is good pretty much all the time over the last year. The location is one of the busiest roundabouts in a 50 mile radius from me. It does not measure pollen levels though, which do get high in spring and summer time (not to mention midgies)
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Bigtipper wrote:
Mean temperature for March 2020 0.0 degrees above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 88% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 110% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. Pretty much an average March in 2020 in Scotland compared to those 30 years averages.

Would have been a great month for skiing, if the resorts were not closed because of CV.

https://waqi.info/#/c/6.344/2.988/2z

This website maps all the world pollution and displays it in real time. You can zoom in to countries, and specific areas and check out the pollution over the last year and how it has changed since lockdown. Fascinating!

The nearest testing station to me (20 miles away) is good for all recorded levels of air pollution. It is good pretty much all the time over the last year. The location is one of the busiest roundabouts in a 50 mile radius from me. It does not measure pollen levels though, which do get high in spring and summer time (not to mention midgies)


Resorts went through until 22 March

Great skiing was had in March.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Mean temperature for April 2020 0.9C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 31% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 151% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2020 average in Scotland. An unusually dry sunny April in Scotland this year compared to those 30 years averages for April.

Could have been some sunbathing on this piste this April! Laughing

Instead, we have all been stuck at home watering the plants.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Mean temperature for May 2020 0.8C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 90% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 119% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2020 average in Scotland.

Another warmer, sunnier and drier month than normal in Scotland. However, the lack of rain in the UK is much worse than in Scotland. Less than half of the normal rainfall in April and May for the whole of UK. England and Wales are particularly dry in May at 17% of average.

This is the end of Spring now, and the start of summer. Whatever happens from here it looks like water will be in short supply in England and Wales this summer.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Apparently we have had more hours of sunshine this spring than we normally get in summer. The turnaround from the wet February to the very dry Spring is without precedent in uk weather history. A worrying sign. However if wet weather can get trapped for long periods and if sunny weather can get trapped then surely that doesn’t rule out cold weather Puzzled
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Bigtipper wrote:
Mean temperature for May 2020 0.8C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 90% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 119% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2020 average in Scotland.

Another warmer, sunnier and drier month than normal in Scotland. However, the lack of rain in the UK is much worse than in Scotland. Less than half of the normal rainfall in April and May for the whole of UK. England and Wales are particularly dry in May at 17% of average.

This is the end of Spring now, and the start of summer. Whatever happens from here it looks like water will be in short supply in England and Wales this summer.


Thanks for jinxing us Sad

Best run of weather here in Wales I can remember.

Better than 1976 because it hasn't been uncomfortably hot.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Bigtipper wrote:
Mean temperature for May 2020 0.8C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 90% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 119% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2020 average in Scotland.

Another warmer, sunnier and drier month than normal in Scotland. However, the lack of rain in the UK is much worse than in Scotland. Less than half of the normal rainfall in April and May for the whole of UK. England and Wales are particularly dry in May at 17% of average.

This is the end of Spring now, and the start of summer. Whatever happens from here it looks like water will be in short supply in England and Wales this summer.


I assume these are countrywide, but I have to say that this seems way out of step where I am. We reckon there have only been two periods of "proper rain" since lockdown began, perhaps totalling 3 or 4 days including the times where there is of a bit of overnight rain where the ground is wet then dries in an hour or so.

I have never (been in this house 16 years) had to water the grass daily as I have the last month or so.

Cycled out to Harperrigg reservoir on the Lanark Road yesterday (source of the Water of Leith) and it is very low.


On the general point, I am so glad i managed a couple of days at Glenshee before everything went south a few months ago......................
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ETA - Looks like I was right about the regional differences even within Scotland

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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@GreenDay, If the reservoirs are low, maybe give watering the grass a rest Very Happy It recovers well.
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I am in the part where it is white. For the most part it was dry, however a great deal of rain fell over a few days and the river level shot up from almost a trickle to a level at which canoists would come down were it not for lockdown. Then the river has dried up again, so that it is at normal summer levels.

It looks like the West of Scotland has had a very dry time too. However, when some rain came to the west it came in large quantities.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Good friend works / lives on one of the estates just south of Aviemore... they go by the rule of thumb that each mile E / W changes the annual rainfall total by 1"!!! So current observations seem to fit with what the locals say...
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Mean temperature for June 2020 1.2C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 139% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 91% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2020 average in Scotland.

Another warmer month than normal in Scotland. However, the lack of rainfall has been remedied in June. Consequently, the sunshine averages are slightly lower than normal.

Vines are loving this weather, but the wind has dropped a few apples in the June drop period. (in Scotland)
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July in Scotland was cooler than average, wetter than average, and more cloudy than average July's in Scotland. However, the start of August has been quite warm, and may be better than August in the most recent years. Apples look ready already, and I usually do not pick them until September. Veraison started earlier than last year on the inside grapes. Last year veraison on the outside grapes did not even start until the beginning of September, so this looks the same as last year but the warmer August looks promising.
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Going to be a very snowy winter in the Brecon Beacons National Park

You heard it here first Smile
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August in Scotland was pretty much average for Augusts between 1981-2010 for rainfall and sunshine. Mean temperature was ever so slightly higher (+0.5c) than August averages in Scotland.

This is good, apples are very red, but might bulk out a bit more and sweeten. Perhaps another week. Outside grapes are starting to show signs of getting bigger, and veraision (for the red grape variety). Looks like grapes are on the same timescale as last year.

No sign of the hard snowy winter to come yet!
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