 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@polo,
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Further out GFS keen on prolonging the high pressure next week, while ECM and GEM show troughs reaching the alps from 21/22 Dec, with some hints of undercutting highs around Iceland / Scandinavia
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Could you stick that in layman's terms for me? I know it's a week away, but we are driving out to the Tarentaise next Thurs/ Friday, so interested to know what the possibilities are at the moment?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@rainman, not a lot I can add in terms of detail, just means the models are showing different scenarios for weekend 21st. The GFS model (snow-forecast) is showing mild temps and relatively dry, whereas some other models are more unsettled, and would lead to colder weather the week after. Over the next few days a more reliable picture should emerge.
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06z GFS control starting to pick up something around 20/21, but not yet op.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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The southern jet is back... Will probably see a lot of low pressures in the Alps during the Christmas period. The AO is going deep into negative territory..
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@BobinCH, thanks.
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@Woosh, wet but warm?
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| leggyblonde wrote: |
| @Woosh, wet but warm? |
Dry and warm is what I'm seeing for the Arlberg next week.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@leggyblonde, I am talking about the general weather pattern in Europe in upcoming weeks and particullary the Christmas week. We have been in strong postive AO situation in the first half of December. Now we are entering a negative AO situation again from the middle of December. The jet stream will follow up with a southern jet, associated with less active weather in Scandinava and low pressures taking a southern path. This looks like it will prevail more or less towards New Year, indicating that we will see a lot low pressures towards the Alps. If I shall make a guess, the southern part of the Alps will see great conditions again as in November. Anyway, this is the large scale picture..
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@BobinCH, happy b'day...looks great, you picked a nice day for it, Friday 13th gortex-vortex
Some really heavy spells continuing all day here in the NW, can't wait to try out some lifts tomorrow.
8-10 day mean charts for ECM and GFS show the southerly jet. Familiar high pressure block from eastern europe thru scandi greenland and NE states / canada.
If November is any guide (last -AO period) then the west will also do well, while the south makes the headlines.
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| polo wrote: |
......
can't wait to try out some lifts tomorrow........ |
You hope, crazy windy here at 1,400m, though this is meant to be the windiest period
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You know it makes sense.
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Northeast US getting pounded the past week.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I don’t think the the southern alps needs more snow. Sunshine and light winds would be much better for actually skiing. 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Rain 
Looks very warm in the run to Xmas...
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sat 14-12-19 9:44; edited 1 time in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Gstaad closed today. Too windy.
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| Joy Zipper wrote: |
| Gstaad closed today. Too windy. |
Come to Verbier. Already open up to 2200m and Funispace (2700m) en attente. Sun coming out this afternoon (possibly)
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| BobinCH wrote: |
| Joy Zipper wrote: |
| Gstaad closed today. Too windy. |
Come to Verbier. Already open up to 2200m and Funispace (2700m) en attente. Sun coming out this afternoon (possibly) |
It did cross my mind! Ended up hiring a touring set up and earning my turns.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Joy Zipper wrote: |
| BobinCH wrote: |
| Joy Zipper wrote: |
| Gstaad closed today. Too windy. |
Come to Verbier. Already open up to 2200m and Funispace (2700m) en attente. Sun coming out this afternoon (possibly) |
It did cross my mind! Ended up hiring a touring set up and earning my turns. |
Snap. Funispace didn’t open so skinned up here. And the promised sun most certainly didn’t appear!
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| BobinCH wrote: |
| Joy Zipper wrote: |
| BobinCH wrote: |
| Joy Zipper wrote: |
| Gstaad closed today. Too windy. |
Come to Verbier. Already open up to 2200m and Funispace (2700m) en attente. Sun coming out this afternoon (possibly) |
It did cross my mind! Ended up hiring a touring set up and earning my turns. |
Snap. Funispace didn’t open so skinned up here. And the promised sun most certainly didn’t appear! |
Nice work.
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Any indications what next Saturday will be like? Transfer day snowmagedon to not?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Oleski wrote: |
| Any indications what next Saturday will be like? Transfer day snowmagedon to not? |
for where?
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Some Föhn... er ... fun. To start the week.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@nozawaonsen, ouch! What elevation/location are those temps for? I'm off to Arlberg so I'm sure piste skiing will be fine, and sitting outside with a beer afterwards!!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@kitenski, any pressure differential greater than eight is considered really strong and means the fohn wind will break into the pre Alps. The forecast differential is as strong as I have ever seen it!
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Yr.no is usually the most realiable site in my opinion, and it show lots of snow for Ischgl next weekend, but no other sites show this - anyone with some insights into this that can back that up?
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Poster: A snowHead
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@DanishRider, it's too far to consider absolute numbers, YR.NO is based on ECM data. So just different models, and likely different timings / updating websites.
GFS 06z has moved towards the ECM outlook, but is more concentrated to the south.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Thank you for that 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Ok I’ll put up with another snowy episode in the NW alps over Xmas but nice and sunny for the New Year week please so the crowds can be dispersed around the mountain , nothing worse than half the mountain shut in possibly the busiest week of the year
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Off to the northern Alps for new year's week. So wish I understood this thread!
28th Dec, Les Menuires; decent snow and weather or a stay by the fireside blusterous storm?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Pieandrun, too soon to tell for 28 December. Though this evenings 12z GFS wouldn’t be too bad if it came off.
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Thank you, I think? 12zGFS?
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@Pieandrun, it’s too early to tell.
GFS (Global Forecast System) is one of the larger weather forecasting models. For various reasons (partly due to it offering up a lot of data for free) it is the basis of most (though not all) forecasts you see on the internet.
It produces an ensemble forecast (GEFS) out to 16 days by adjusting the starting assumptions very slightly across 22 runs issued four times a day (00z, 06z etc z= Zulu). But beyond about 7-8 days (sometimes earlier) these will vary a lot, because weather.
Have a look at post one page one.
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@Pieandrun, it matters little which set of forecasts or models you look at if you want accurate forecasts more than a few days ahead. There are so many variables that any forecast beyond a few days (lets say 7 but the number is arguable) is no more than an educated guess. So to your question about the 28th of December, no one can give you an accurate answer. The next week is likely to bring snowy weather to the southern alps and mild dry weather to the northern alps (north / south here refers to either side of the main ridge of the alps which sort of runs along the French, Swiss and Austrian borders with Italy), beyond that some snow a few days before Christmas seems likely for many places in the alps and then maybe back to the mild dry weather. You might see the expression "fantasy island" (FI) used, this means that one of the various forecasting models is suggesting snow say 10 to 14 days hence, but with all the variables it is often no more than wishful thinking!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Thank you both; really informative stuff.
As there's no changing the date we're going, I might have to go with the drawing the curtain and looking out of the window method!
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@Pieandrun, it is what it will be, you can’t change it! Just enjoy your holiday!
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FAQ
Great news for the lower resorts. There must have been 30-40 at 2000m in Verbier this morning and there must have been another 20cm since then. Lots of wind but it’s super deep in the forests. This was first run this morning. Not a bad start to the birthday day off 
