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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
This is quite a forecast for this week! It’s not backing off...

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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Looks like major SnowMageddon for all the Weekend Warriors then Laughing

Nigh on a 100cm being forecast for this part of the world and with very strong winds so that will see the Col du Lautaret shut.

We've only dribbles down South today probably 5 or so cms, was thinking about some XC later but there's a keen wind blowing.

A friend who is a La Grave guide told me he had his best descent ever in over 30 years on Friday, by going up from Les Deux Alpes, hiking over the top and then dropping down to LG, we did this once when the lift was closed, but in Spring, so was powder at the top but hard work lower down.

Then I read that the bastardo did it again yesterday with his family, that's slack country on another scale compared to what I did at the weekend Laughing
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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webcams show it's snowing in the village at Les Contamines (1100m) Very Happy
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Chucking it down in Chamonix...
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What sort of conditions are needed for snow in North-Eastern Alps (Kitzbuhel)? Some crazy green spike appeared on 21st/22nd December!
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=205&bw=&geoid=3095
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@Dougie, Nordstau (from the north) is optimum, but Kitz will get snow with some west and east in it too.
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Thanks for that @clarky999. Any idea if that could be on its way before New Year. Getting to Kitz 28 December?
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Shall we all pray that this stays in FI Smile

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French border getting plastered. Chamonix must have done well. PdS too I imagine. And still going strong...

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BobinCH wrote:
French border getting plastered. Chamonix must have done well. PdS too I imagine. And still going strong...



Would you mind posting the link? Having trouble finding it.
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@südtirolistdeutsch,

This is precipitation (automatic weather stations) over the last 24 hrs updated hourly. Click on the spots for 3 day, 7 day and 1 year stats
https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation/measured-values.html

This has 1 day / 3 day snow maps measured around 8am each morning by observers (more accurate).
https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html#avalanchedanger
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Hi all,

Hearing mixed reports of it puking it in tarantaise around Val Tignes Rosiere and St Foy... can anyone confirm? These charts and graphs might as well be tea leaves so far as my ability to interpret them
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fundamental wrote:
Hi all,

Hearing mixed reports of it puking it in tarantaise around Val Tignes Rosiere and St Foy... can anyone confirm? These charts and graphs might as well be tea leaves so far as my ability to interpret them


Depends how you define "puking it". It has snowed about 15-20cm in Val d'Isere during the day, more over the ridge in Bonneval sur Arc so you can expect more snow higher up on the Pissalais etc. You'll need snow tires or chains in resort and on the access road from around 900/1000 meters altitude.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
As been keeping an interest in the weather for the back end of the week (blowing a hooley here this morning in the valley and at altitude snow getting ripped off), and see snow levels have reduced by nigh on 50% for down South.

On the BBC weather last evening, they actually showed some synoptic charts with the low tracking across Europe, so just taken a look and it's a good example of just how volatile the weather can be.

For 00:00hrs Friday chart below - and you can see that low with a series of troughs developing



And then 12hrs later - look what's appeared over Northern Italy ?



And then looks how that is forecast to develop!



We're off trying to find a new route in the forest this morning to stay out of the wind somewhere near here
https://www.google.fr/maps/@44.9929932,6.4698193,491m/data=!3m1!1e3
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Weathercam wrote:
As been keeping an interest in the weather for the back end of the week (blowing a hooley here this morning in the valley and at altitude snow getting ripped off), and see snow levels have reduced by nigh on 50% for down South.

On the BBC weather last evening, they actually showed some synoptic charts with the low tracking across Europe, so just taken a look and it's a good example of just how volatile the weather can be.

For 00:00hrs Friday chart below - and you can see that low with a series of troughs developing

And then 12hrs later - look what's appeared over Northern Italy ?

And then looks how that is forecast to develop!

We're off trying to find a new route in the forest this morning to stay out of the wind somewhere near here
https://www.google.fr/maps/@44.9929932,6.4698193,491m/data=!3m1!1e3



Weathercam. Your last two charts actually show the situation at 12 UTC Friday. The T+96 chart is actually out of date and has not yet been updated at the time of your post. The T+84hr chart is the correct one for 12 UTC Friday
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

French border getting plastered. Chamonix must have done well. PdS too I imagine. And still going strong...


Les Contamines reporting 40cm yesterday at 1880m. Looks fabulous today
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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It's all sounding kinda good...
And more big storms here in Ireland this week, so they should hopefully bring some more snow to ze Alps in the coming days also....
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Bizarrely warm in Dublin this morning - having been quite cold last night. Was wondering if this was same front bringing predicted yo yo temps to alps.
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@jimmybog, that's because I saved the images as they were at the time of the post, sorry I should have made that clear.

Though Netweather still have those same charts and timings rolling eyes

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/fax

And that feckin wind has trashed the powder even though we climbed in the forest, on the up and some 40 odd kick turns as so steep, plus I was breaking trail we encountered deep cold powder to nigh on 10cm crust, and it was a similar story on the descent, challenging skiing to say the least!

Last quarter was pretty sweet though, and at least we were out in it, but not too sure I'd do that again in a hurry, though we have been spoilt these last six weeks.
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Redial wrote:
Anyone offer advice on whether to go for Ischgl, Anton or Zermatt Thursday to Sunday this week based on the above? Leaning towards Zermatt but no idea what the above forecasts mean. Help/ advice much appreciated.

Still nothing booked. Is it fair to say that the weather may not be as bad in Austria as was quoted earlier in the week? Looks like Zermatt is still under pressure Friday and Saturday.

Help us out please snowheads Very Happy
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Always follow the snow.

Zermatt.

Heavy rain in most of Austria and Switzerland below 1800m on Sunday.
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Redial wrote:
Redial wrote:
Anyone offer advice on whether to go for Ischgl, Anton or Zermatt Thursday to Sunday this week based on the above? Leaning towards Zermatt but no idea what the above forecasts mean. Help/ advice much appreciated.

Still nothing booked. Is it fair to say that the weather may not be as bad in Austria as was quoted earlier in the week? Looks like Zermatt is still under pressure Friday and Saturday.

Help us out please snowheads Very Happy


Why go East when the snow is in the West? Thursday will be a Bluebird powder day, Friday deep snow, no viz and cold, Saturday looks wet and Sunday bluebird again but you’ll need to go high as it will have rained below 1800m.

You don’t say why you are limiting to those resorts but if I were you I’d go to one of the resorts that has/will benefit from these storms from the West ie 3V, EK, Chamonix, Verbier etc.
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Not sure where the idea that the weather would be bad in Austria came from? Of the three resorts you mentioned the snowline looks lower now than it did a few days ago. But the snowfall on Saturday could be particularly heavy in Zermatt accompanied by storm strength winds. When that settles down it will be great, but there is a risk that it could lead to lift closures on Saturday and Sunday. It looks clearer with sun returning on Sunday in all three resorts you have mentioned. This is still a few days out of course.
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@Redial, have a look at wepowder also and see what Morris is saying, I think there should be an update shortly. Not clear whether you have a flight booked or are travelling from mainland Europe. I think its a difficult week to recommend because of yoyo-ing temperatures, winds and storm. Wherever you go, make sure the resort is open!
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Thanks all. Flying in to Zurich. Skiing days will be fri-sun. Looking at options serviced by public train or bus ideally hence Zermatt, anton, Ischgl
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Redial wrote:
Thanks all. Flying in to Zurich. Skiing days will be fri-sun. Looking at options serviced by public train or bus ideally hence Zermatt, anton, Ischgl


Arlberg and Ischgl have both been pretty deep the last two days, 40cm fresh at each. Couldn't make it myself, but the vids look pretty nice wink

Arlberg: https://www.instagram.com/p/B55oNonpACC/

Ischgl: https://www.facebook.com/patscheider.guenther/videos/10217755540132493/
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Looking at various user-friendly icon-based snow-forecast sites for the coming dump Friday and Saturday down here, and based on the isobars showing on the charts above there is a massive discrepancy between them in terms of wind-speed forecast.

WePowder are predicting F8 and even F9 at altitude for most of Fri and Sat whilst Snow-Forecast are giving 10-25kph at 2,000m and MeteoCiel similar with only a 6hr spell on Fri with winds over 40kph.

And I've just looked at Zermatt and there looks breezy as well Laughing

Oh and then there's the wind-chill on top!
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Redial wrote:
Redial wrote:
Anyone offer advice on whether to go for Ischgl, Anton or Zermatt Thursday to Sunday this week based on the above? Leaning towards Zermatt but no idea what the above forecasts mean. Help/ advice much appreciated.

Still nothing booked. Is it fair to say that the weather may not be as bad in Austria as was quoted earlier in the week? Looks like Zermatt is still under pressure Friday and Saturday.

Help us out please snowheads Very Happy


Here's my take on it :-

I'm flying into Geneva early on Friday and leaving late on Sunday (skiing Friday afternoon, all day Saturday and Sunday morning).

When I do these weekends I either hire a car and head south into France or take the train east into Switzerland.

Looking a the meteoexploration website (Fra/Sat/Sun) :-


Cham - 77/42/3 cm snow, 70/70/50 kph wind, 1000/1800/1900 m fl.
La Clusaz - 67/23/3 cm snow, 60/45/45 kph wind, 1000/1800/2000 m fl.
Morzine - 60/37/4 cm snow, 65/55/60 kph wind, 1000/1800/1900 m fl.
Les Carroz - 34/9/2 cm snow, 60/50/45 kph wind, 1000/1900/2100 m fl.

I don't fancy driving up the mountain roads to Morzine/Les Carroz in a whiteout so they are out of the equation, Cham & La Clusaz have much better roads into them but again I don't really fancy driving in it given the choice.

Gstaad - 44/26/2 cm snow, 70/60/60 kph wind, 1000/1800/2100 m fl.
Villars - 33/13/2 cm snow, 60/55/45 kph wind, 1000/1700/1800 m fl.
Verbier - 32/7/0 cm snow, 60/70/55 kph wind, 1000/1800/2100 m fl.

Gstaad is forecast whiteout on Friday and Saturday, it's lower level so mostly tree lined, but with the freezing level rising on Saturday the snow may turn into rain.
Villars - ditto but with Saturday looking a bit brighter.
Verbier is looking brighter on Saturday too and a lot higher.

I know Gstaad and Verbier well having visited them both before, never been to Villars so not too sure about the logistics.

I will be following the weather very closely and probably make a decision tomorrow afternoon.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@JoyZipper, From Gstaad you could consider Glacier 3000 for the Sunday?

To be honest the whole of western and central Europe is looking pretty wild over the next few days
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@JoyZipper, what about driving to Les Gets to get into the trees there as an option, then if its wet and roads ok, continue onto the Prodains lift for more height? (assuming it's not shut by the wind!!)
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Credit to the GFS re. this weeks storminess and FL's, often seems to have the edge for westerly driven weather.

Mixed signals in FI as ever, the SSW / sPV disruption is not happening this time round, instead sPV winds are set to increase strongly into second half Dec. Might not filter down to our levels though as the AO in particular is flirting with -ve's again from mid month. So you have a strong vortex 20km up (stratosphere) and a weak vortex 5km up (troposphere).

Some signs of MJO / pacific wave activity picking up, which might lead to more amplified high pressure towards greenland / iceland / scandi. Just some thoughts I've read, don't ask me to elaborate Smile
GFS is showing this for xmas period - obviously way too far to be a forecast - just for illustration, you can see how Saturdays zonal NH profile would be replaced with a more meridonal one by the 25/26th.

gfsnh-0-84

gfsnh-0-360
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@JoyZipper, given the forecast I would suggest, go for trees and somewhere you know well.
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SLF looking out towards the coming storm.

“Outlook through Friday, 13.12.2019

Thursday

Wednesday night will be very cloudy, and 5 to 15 cm of snow will fall over a wide area above approximately 1000 m. Only the far south will remain dry. During the day it will become sunny again from the west. The wind will be moderate to strong from the west. The danger of dry avalanches will not change significantly.

Friday

It will be very cloudy, and snow will fall over a wide area; in the west the snowfall will be heavy. The snowfall level will rise to approximately 1300 m on Thursday night and drop to low altitudes during the day. The wind will be strong to storm force from the west. The avalanche danger will increase over a wide area. In the west it could reach "high" (level 4) in some regions as the day progresses.”
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jbob wrote:
@JoyZipper, given the forecast I would suggest, go for trees and somewhere you know well.


it is quite early season, there isn't a whole stack of snow below the tree line yet, well that's my experience at the moment - of course depending whether the poster is skiing on or off piste.
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And SLF through Saturday:

Outlook through Saturday, 14.12.2019
Amidst a storm-strength westerly wind syndrome, heavy and persistent snowfall is anticipated in the northern and the western regions, including in the Jura. The snowfall level will intially lie between 500 and 1200 m, subsequently during the course of the day on Saturday ascend to approximately 1800 m. The new fallen snow and the old snow will both be transported. Avalanche danger levels are expected to increase over widespread areas. Danger levels on Friday will reach Level 4 (high) during the daytime in the Lower Valais and in the western regions of the northern Alpine Ridge, subsequently during the course of the day possibly also in additional regions of the Valais and of the northern Alpine Ridge. During the course of the day on Saturday, furthermore, the danger of wet-snow and gliding-snow avalanches will increase at intermediate altitudes as a result of the rainfall. Exposed sections of transportation routes will be placed at risk. For snow sports in outlying terrain away from secured ski runs, the conditions will be very critical.
In the furthermoset southern regions only a small amount of snowfall is anticipated. The avalanche danger will stem from freshly generated snowdrift accumulations.
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Chamonix météo predicting 1m of snow at 1800m between Thursday night and Saturday night...

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Last night's snow now easing, and cloud breaking up in Chamonix. Off out for fun in the powder.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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davidof wrote:
jbob wrote:
@JoyZipper, given the forecast I would suggest, go for trees and somewhere you know well.


it is quite early season, there isn't a whole stack of snow below the tree line yet, well that's my experience at the moment - of course depending whether the poster is skiing on or off piste.


Looking like a snowy/low-viz weekend so it's likely Gstaad and skiing in the trees for me. I was going to hire a local guide for a day off piste on Saturday but given the amount of snow forecast I think that I'll pass as the avalanche risk will be too high. If the snow forecast comes to fruition on piste will essentially be off piste anyway. Plenty snow all the way down to the village.


Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Thu 12-12-19 9:26; edited 1 time in total
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@BobinCH, what app are you using for the Chamonix Meteo forecast?
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@BobinCH, interesting they see a much lower snowline (1000-1500) on Saturday than GFS / ECM (1800). Makes a difference to some of the lower resorts opening lifts for first time. Suppose wet snow / sleet either way though.

Further out GFS keen on prolonging the high pressure next week, while ECM and GEM show troughs reaching the alps from 21/22 Dec, with some hints of undercutting highs around Iceland / Scandinavia
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