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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
polo wrote:
Despite the UKMO dragging it's heels at 120-144, it's only a matter of time according to ECM and GFS mean 8-10 day charts.
Incoming vortex.

test8


Can you elaborate on the ‘incoming vortex’ and what it’s impact will be to alps.....+ive or -ive for the alps etc
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
That just looked fabulous
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Sneachta2013, stormy, lots of rain/snow coming from W/NW. As mentioned think the east does best initially, but too far for detail.

It's unusual to see such a large deep area of low pressure over northern europe, but ideally we need more amplification / ridging of high pressure in the Atlantic to turn the winds more northerly over alps.

As it stands low pressure systems are either too flat (westerly), or prone to sinking towards iberia.
So I imagine we're going to get plenty of wild weather, rain, then snow at low altitutde, chaos higher up.

Followed by an outbreak of scattered GoPro use and occasional drone footage.
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Weathercam wrote:


We did hear some blasting going on yesterday, and then just as we were on our way up there friends WhatsApped this!!!





Seems like the French/Italian border is shaping up to a PWL problem this season.

The Cucumelle slide (above) was triggered by the pisteurs using the gazex system, although they may be keeping that a bit quiet Happy
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davidof wrote:
............The Cucumelle slide (above) was triggered by the pisteurs using the gazex system, although they may be keeping that a bit quiet Happy


I was wondering if it was triggered or not as so much activity on the other side, I'm 99% sure that there is no gazex on that side, though at the top of the photo on the right that does well look like a pipe and it could be linked to the three on the other side that were originally there before the new Vallons lift was put in as there was an old piste there and you can see the scale of what was set off!!!

Just wondering if the air pressure etc when they set that off caused the slide on the other side or there is a pipe as well?




And a whole load of avalanche data, fatalities, what sport and whereabouts in France etc etc has been released by Anea for 2018 - 2019 for people that like that sort of thing.

http://www.anena.org/10766-bilan-provisoire-des-accidents-d-avalanche-2018-2019.htm

And this link is to an interactive map

And can someone explain the difference between

Nombre d'accidents mortels and Nombre de décédés
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> Nombre d'accidents mortels and Nombre de décédés

to make year to year comparisons the number of incidents involving at least one fatality (Nombre d'accidents mortels) is used rather than the total number of dead (Nombre de décédés) as it removes a very large variable.

The number of fatalities divided by the number of avalanches involving fatalities gives you an idea of the severity of avalanches in a single year wrt to other years.

Journalists like whichever figure is more dramatic as they don't understand statistics, but understand journalism.
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@davidof, have to admit to still being none the wiser to your explanation when you see it like this Puzzled

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There were 12 incidents where people died and 13 deaths. The 60 figure is the number of incidents reported, generally only incidents involving the rescue services get reported (and then sometimes not).

There were not many fatal avalanches incidents in 2018/19 and they were not very serious. The good figures compared to the long term average reflect generally stable snow conditions last season.
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davidof wrote:
......There were not many fatal avalanches incidents in 2018/19 and they were not very serious. The good figures compared to the long term average reflect generally stable snow conditions last season.


Yes previous season !!!!


Bilan des accidents d'avalanche 2017 - 2018

79 accidents d'avalanche recensés
139 emportés
49 ensevelis (tête sous la neige)
37 décédés
54 blessés
48 indemnes

and this was the season when there were those horrendous CAF related avalanches when six were killed in the Queyras

Bilan des accidents d'avalanche 2015 - 2016

46 accidents d'avalanche recensés
116 emportés
36 ensevelis (tête sous la neige)
21 décédés
44 blessés
51 indemnes
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Moved avalanche discussion here: https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?p=3486066#3486066
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All sorts of options getting thrown out by the models into mid Dec.....

Monday 9th looks good for snow across the northern ridge, pretty evenly distributed, might get 20-30cm locally.

High pressure rolls in quickly before the next low on Wednesday / Thursday. These fast moving westerly systems start with a high snowline in the NW alps (>2000) but quickly drop to low levels (<1000).
Quite a difference in models at +144, so not a certainty yet that the mid week low will dig far enough SE towards the alps.
Chart shows the wildest of the bunch, ICON with a 950mb centre low west of Ireland.

icon-0-144

Not much point speculating beyond that, due to near term differences etc, many possibilities showing up, from continued stormy low pressure, to mild SW flow and high pressure.
Ensemble mean temp fluctuating around 0c at 1500m for forseeable, so close to average.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
For those that want to get some beach time with their skiing, you can always hit up Hawaii.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/winter-storm-could-dump-6-134940989.html

A winter storm could dump more than six inches of snow in Hawaii at higher elevations on Thursday and Friday.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for summits above 12,000 feet on Hawaii’s Big Island, warning of “significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations.”

Hawaii has several high mountain peaks. Mauna Kea, the highest point in the state, towers at close to 13,800 feet.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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GEM shows how flat the jet stream gets next week

gem-5-144

GFS 12z out to Sat 14th. Usual caveats....a lot of movement in the numbers, although this Op run is in line with it's mean to 14th. Shows how widespread the snow could be across Scotland, Norway, Alps and Balkans. Stormaggedon time.
192-24
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Toadman wrote:
For those that want to get some beach time with their skiing, you can always hit up Hawaii.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/winter-storm-could-dump-6-134940989.html

A winter storm could dump more than six inches of snow in Hawaii at higher elevations on Thursday and Friday.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for summits above 12,000 feet on Hawaii’s Big Island, warning of “significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations.”

Hawaii has several high mountain peaks. Mauna Kea, the highest point in the state, towers at close to 13,800 feet.



Mount Kea had a couple snow-pukes in Nov. Been chilly down-south.

Buddy is nextdoor in Maui and watched a tiger shark chomp on a paddleboard, a few days ago.

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Looking at the forecasts, just now, France will do well this weekend and into early next week.

3Vs and Val-Tignes will be good.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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"Whitegold In positive post on Snowheads shock" Shocked

Words I never thought I'd type....Thought 'I've won the Euromillions lottery' would have been a safer shout Very Happy
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@Whitegold, Good for snow but possibly not for skiing ?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Gfs has gone bezerk for 12/13th next week!
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I'm going to the Aosta Valley (La Thuile) at the end of February, so will watch this thread with interest!
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Daleskier wrote:
Gfs has gone bezerk for 12/13th next week!


Indeed. Looks like Goretex jackets will get a good test next weekend!

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What location is above chart for....?
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Given the longitude and latitude mentioned on the chart (46 deg long and 7 deg lat) it looks somewhere in the vicinity of Val d’isere/ three valleys.......?
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Sneachta2013 wrote:
What location is above chart for....?


PdS / Verbier / Chamonix - @Noza can probably tell us the precise location. I think there’s another one further west Closer to 3V / EK
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@BobinCH Aiguille du Tour.
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so looking at todays 06 GFS run for the Arlberg looks like a 15 degree temp drop by the 11th, then it swings back up 15 degrees before dropping again on the 13th!! with some bands of precipitation to come over that same period. Will be interesting to see how it all develops!

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nozawaonsen wrote:
@BobinCH Aiguille du Tour.

Merci!

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Kirkwood, California, got 4ft of snow in 1 day this week.

Would have "buried" a ~7yo child stood outside.

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Some pretty intense snowfall heading for the NW end of the Alps (GFS op is a bit of N outlier, but Ensembles backing big snowfall either way). Looks heaviest Friday and Saturday, though tomorrow no slouch.



Friday night, Saturday morning could see the jet roaring across which could bring storm strength winds and above average temperatures in the west.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
Some pretty intense snowfall heading for the NW end of the Alps (GFS op is a bit of N outlier, but Ensembles backing big snowfall either way). Looks heaviest Friday and Saturday, though tomorrow no slouch.
Any thoughts on the freezing line for Friday/Saturday?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Chamonix Météo saying 1000-1200 on Friday but looks like it gets warmer going into Saturday from the squiggles...

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 Poster: A snowHead
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@rob@rar, at present the snow line (not freezing level) looks like it could be around 1800-2000m at times in the Western Alps on Saturday, with winds gusting over 100kmh on Friday evening at altitude. Could change between now and then of course.
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@BobinCH, @nozawaonsen, thanks. Could be worse. Heavy snow at altitude will be good to continue developing decent snow depths, although wind-loading will be an issue. I'll be driving down next weekend, so will keep an eye on the forecast to avoid the worst of the weather.
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Hmmm so my drive from Geneva to Val D’Isère on Friday could be a challenge! Better make it as only a short trip and the accommodation was silly money ! Could be epic after
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There’s already a solid base above 2000m. Should be sensational after the snow forecast over the next 7 days! Spot the Matterhorn...
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BobinCH, wonderful picture. From your balcony? Toofy Grin
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It's ECM and UKMO vs GFS and the rest for Friday/Saturday, big differences at t+120 with how far SE the low tracks, ECM below.
Whichever model is right makes all the difference to FL on Saturday....by lunchtime at 1200m in the NW, GFS 12z has a temp of +4c while ECM has -4c.
I'd normally back the UKMO and ECM in these situations, but at this stage would be happy with a compromise.

ECM1-120

Comes down to how the energy in the atlantic is phased or not....ECM keeps the big purple lows apart
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Anyone offer advice on whether to go for Ischgl, Anton or Zermatt Thursday to Sunday this week based on the above? Leaning towards Zermatt but no idea what the above forecasts mean. Help/ advice much appreciated.
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@Redial, you’ll want trees Fri/Sat. Not sure Zermatt a great option for that...
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@Redial, further east in Austria, the temperature looks like staying lower a little longer, wind speeds look to be be lower, but fresh snow looks to be lower compared to Zermatt (though both St Anton and Ischgl look like getting a fair bit of fresh snow). At present the amount of wind and snow forecast for Zermatt on Friday could mean a lot closed on Saturday. All that with the strong caveat that five days out a lot could change.
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Jonpim wrote:
BobinCH, wonderful picture. From your balcony? Toofy Grin
weekend office wink
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