 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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NAO having another shot at going positive as the Atlantic ramps up mid month. Looks like heavy rainfall in parts of Alps Wednesday/Thursday.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Meteo France has issued a storm warning for winds gusting up to 80-100kmh, strong rain, hail and lightning in Haute Savoie and Isere amongst others.
http://vigilance.meteofrance.com/
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Storm just hitting the pre alps now, usual poor showing from the models short term, ie GFS, WRF, Arome all have big differences in terms of wind, rainfall amounts and timing. Consensus suggests tonight and tomorrow afternoon are the heaviest periods, but still nothing dramatic showing up, eg max 30-40kph gusts, and totals of 15-30mm rain to thursday for Haute Savoie.
Whereas MF link above says expect violent precipitation and gusts to 80-100kph. So far they are right about the violent rain bursts.
Evolution prévue :
Dès le début d'après-midi, des cellules orageuses de grande ampleur vont se développer sur est Haute-Loire et sud Loire puis s'étendre assez rapidement au Rhône, à l'Ain au nord-Isére et au nord-ouest de la Haute Savoie.
Ces orages peuvent être localement violents avec fortes précipitations (intensités pouvant aller jusqu'à 30/40 mm par heure), forte grêle, et fortes rafales de vent à proximité des cellules orageuses (pouvant dépasser les 80/100 km/h).
But for the UK, today is only an appetiser for what's to come on the weekend.
Here's the GFS pressure graph on Sat and ECM rainfall to sunday.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Just had a very violent storm whip through the Carnic Alps. Sheets of rain, hail, fork lightning, trees swaying everywhere. Now sun out again and just distant rumbles of thunder.
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For the Alps more of the same today though more likely across a smaller area, mainly northern Italy.
“A level 2 was issued across N Italy mainly for large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts and to the lesser extent for excessive rainfall.”
“A level 1 was issued across France, Switzerland, Germany, Czech Republic, Austria, Poland, Slovakia, Belarus and W Russia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive rainfall.”
http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2019080806_201908062130_2_stormforecast.xml
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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In hindsight, WRF/Arome were pretty accurate in this area, apart from a few short and heavy bursts of rain yesterday afternoon, nothing happened. Winds of 5-10kph today, trees fully intact 
Unlike the previous few months, April - June I was collecting garden debris every other week
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@munich_irish, looks to me like that and the Estofex one are broadly the same, the Estofex one highlights the increased risk around northern Italy and NE Austria.
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You know it makes sense.
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Another hot spell across the Alps coming up this weekend before temperatures fall off from Tuesday. So possibly the last seriously hot spell of summer? We’ll see. In the meantime find a crystal cold lake to dive into!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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“The El Niño of 2019 is officially done. Near-average conditions in the tropical Pacific indicate that we have returned to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña is present). Forecasters continue to favor ENSO-neutral (50-55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere winter.”
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/august-2019-el-niño-update-stick-fork-it
“Does a return to neutral mean that average weather conditions are expected to prevail around the globe? As Michelle pointed out a couple years ago, the answer is an emphatic NO. A return to neutral means that we will not get that predictable influence from El Niño or La Niña, but the atmosphere is certainly capable of wild swings without a push from either influence. Basically, ENSO-neutral means that the job of seasonal forecasters gets a bit tougher because we do not have that ENSO influence that we potentially can predict several months in advance (in a probabilistic form).”
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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yes but only the Music Fest I think the Surfing is still going ahead may be wrong though 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Only 3 weeks of meteorological summer left...
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@nozawaonsen, probably a big relief for those in the UK if it brings an end to the current cycle. Deja vu next weekend.
Though hints of high pressure building up again over europe for the last part of august
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August 11th is peak of summer in the Northern Hemisphere.
Temps barrel downward from here.
Winter begins today 
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I checked on YR.NO temperature at the North Pole - +26 C ....
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It is worth noting the European glaciers have been totally battered again this summer (2019).
The Alps' glaciers are in their worst summer condition in modern history.
Pitztal, Solden, Kaprun, Stubai, L2A, and Tignes glaciers all closed for August.
Saas Fee struggling to stay open.
Whistler, in Canada, closed and unable to last beyond July.
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Brutal. I'll follow all that great news with this exception: Tahoe and Mammoth got pounded this season and stayed open quite late. Mammoth is one of the few ski areas predicted to get more snow due to global warming - at least for a while. Whether that predicted extra snowfall actually hangs around is of course another matter.
I don't think putting tarps on the glaciers is going to get it done sports fans. Might be time to get into the reservoir business...
My flying over the pond to come to the Alps isn't helping matters either, is it? "We have met the enemy, and he is us!"
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Whitegold, do you have data on this “worst” condition? I have been searching the web but unable to find any study. May not be in English language.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Bit of fresh snow down to the Fernerhaus on Hintertux overnight tonight. 5cm or so before temperatures rise again.
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Arctic sea ice also in freefall.
New study, based on shipping logs.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
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|
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
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|
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@munich_irish, there is quite a bit of research to suggest lower sea ice could lead to increased meridional jet stream. That could lead to extended periods of colder weather. Of course it can also lead to extended periods of warm and or dry weather...
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@nozawaonsen, so no more accurate than Marmots  . If I understand it properly there is an increased likelihood of longer periods of similar weather which could mean lots of snow like last winter or it could mean a very dry winter.
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@munich_irish, yep that’s basically it. The more meridional (wavy) jet comes with increased blocking highs. When these get established they can lead to persistent weather of one sort or another.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Australia seeing good snowfall at the moment.
Perisher getting record snow.
Chile, not so good.
Warm and wet.
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FAQ
