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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Two heatwaves and a cold spell mean July in Austria was +1.7C against average

https://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/erneut-ein-ueberdurchschnittlich-warmer-juli

The hot June and July meant apricots ripened on 04 July 10 days ahead of average and elderberries on 20 July a month ahead of average.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Nothing too intense over next day in terms of storms in the Alps.

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2019080506_201908031213_1_stormforecast.xml
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Looking intensely wet and stormy though over the UK for the foreseeable future, as a series of lows whip in off the atlantic.
Towards the end of GFS / ECM runs, one of those troughs might dig into northern france around mid month. Temps close to average for now but heading cooler if these lows reach the alps, sourcing some polar maritime / arctic air.

gfs-12-312
ECM101-240
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NAO having another shot at going positive as the Atlantic ramps up mid month. Looks like heavy rainfall in parts of Alps Wednesday/Thursday.
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Risk of stormy weather heading towards the Alps Tuesday/Wednesday.

“A level 2 was issued for parts of France, Switzerland, N Italy, S Germany, Austria, Czech Republic and Slovakia mainly for large hail, excessive precipitation and severe convective wind gusts.”

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2019080706_201908052116_2_stormforecast.xml

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Meteo France has issued a storm warning for winds gusting up to 80-100kmh, strong rain, hail and lightning in Haute Savoie and Isere amongst others.

http://vigilance.meteofrance.com/
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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-08-06

And indeed a bit closer to home, thunderstorms, rain and strong winds in the south
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Storm just hitting the pre alps now, usual poor showing from the models short term, ie GFS, WRF, Arome all have big differences in terms of wind, rainfall amounts and timing. Consensus suggests tonight and tomorrow afternoon are the heaviest periods, but still nothing dramatic showing up, eg max 30-40kph gusts, and totals of 15-30mm rain to thursday for Haute Savoie.

Whereas MF link above says expect violent precipitation and gusts to 80-100kph. So far they are right about the violent rain bursts.
Evolution prévue :
Dès le début d'après-midi, des cellules orageuses de grande ampleur vont se développer sur est Haute-Loire et sud Loire puis s'étendre assez rapidement au Rhône, à l'Ain au nord-Isére et au nord-ouest de la Haute Savoie.
Ces orages peuvent être localement violents avec fortes précipitations (intensités pouvant aller jusqu'à 30/40 mm par heure), forte grêle, et fortes rafales de vent à proximité des cellules orageuses (pouvant dépasser les 80/100 km/h).

But for the UK, today is only an appetiser for what's to come on the weekend.
Here's the GFS pressure graph on Sat and ECM rainfall to sunday.

gfs-0-90
xx-model-en-339-0-modez-2019080600-141-1642-157
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Just had a very violent storm whip through the Carnic Alps. Sheets of rain, hail, fork lightning, trees swaying everywhere. Now sun out again and just distant rumbles of thunder.
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For the Alps more of the same today though more likely across a smaller area, mainly northern Italy.

“A level 2 was issued across N Italy mainly for large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts and to the lesser extent for excessive rainfall.”

“A level 1 was issued across France, Switzerland, Germany, Czech Republic, Austria, Poland, Slovakia, Belarus and W Russia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive rainfall.”

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2019080806_201908062130_2_stormforecast.xml

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These folk seem to be suggesting it is a good idea to batten down the hatches over a good deal of the alps and surrounding area

http://www.severe-weather.eu/outlooks-day1/outlook-day-1-valid-07-08-2019/

no idea how their forecasts compare to others.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
In hindsight, WRF/Arome were pretty accurate in this area, apart from a few short and heavy bursts of rain yesterday afternoon, nothing happened. Winds of 5-10kph today, trees fully intact wink

Unlike the previous few months, April - June I was collecting garden debris every other week
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@munich_irish, looks to me like that and the Estofex one are broadly the same, the Estofex one highlights the increased risk around northern Italy and NE Austria.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Another hot spell across the Alps coming up this weekend before temperatures fall off from Tuesday. So possibly the last seriously hot spell of summer? We’ll see. In the meantime find a crystal cold lake to dive into!
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“The El Niño of 2019 is officially done. Near-average conditions in the tropical Pacific indicate that we have returned to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña is present). Forecasters continue to favor ENSO-neutral (50-55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere winter.”

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/august-2019-el-niño-update-stick-fork-it

“Does a return to neutral mean that average weather conditions are expected to prevail around the globe? As Michelle pointed out a couple years ago, the answer is an emphatic NO. A return to neutral means that we will not get that predictable influence from El Niño or La Niña, but the atmosphere is certainly capable of wild swings without a push from either influence. Basically, ENSO-neutral means that the job of seasonal forecasters gets a bit tougher because we do not have that ENSO influence that we potentially can predict several months in advance (in a probabilistic form).”
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 Poster: A snowHead
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NAO staying pretty stubbornly negative.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
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Just wait till we get to winter. It’ll be positive all the way Sad

How ironic that the ‘Board-masters’ festival at Newquay has been cancelled. Surf forecast looks huge tomorrow snowHead
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
yes but only the Music Fest I think the Surfing is still going ahead may be wrong though Smile
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Current above average temperatures in the Alps are going to be replaced by cooler than average temps as we go through the week.



Meanwhile snowing in parts of Australia...

https://www.skyweather.com.au/video/6071252363001
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Only 3 weeks of meteorological summer left...
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@nozawaonsen, probably a big relief for those in the UK if it brings an end to the current cycle. Deja vu next weekend.

UW144-21

Though hints of high pressure building up again over europe for the last part of august
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
August 11th is peak of summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

Temps barrel downward from here.

Winter begins today snowHead
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I checked on YR.NO temperature at the North Pole - +26 C ....
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It is worth noting the European glaciers have been totally battered again this summer (2019).

The Alps' glaciers are in their worst summer condition in modern history.

Pitztal, Solden, Kaprun, Stubai, L2A, and Tignes glaciers all closed for August.

Saas Fee struggling to stay open.

Whistler, in Canada, closed and unable to last beyond July.
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Brutal. I'll follow all that great news with this exception: Tahoe and Mammoth got pounded this season and stayed open quite late. Mammoth is one of the few ski areas predicted to get more snow due to global warming - at least for a while. Whether that predicted extra snowfall actually hangs around is of course another matter.

I don't think putting tarps on the glaciers is going to get it done sports fans. Might be time to get into the reservoir business...

My flying over the pond to come to the Alps isn't helping matters either, is it? "We have met the enemy, and he is us!"
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@Whitegold, do you have data on this “worst” condition? I have been searching the web but unable to find any study. May not be in English language.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Bit of fresh snow down to the Fernerhaus on Hintertux overnight tonight. 5cm or so before temperatures rise again.
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Arctic sea ice also in freefall.

New study, based on shipping logs.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Whitegold wrote:
It is worth noting the European glaciers have been totally battered again this summer (2019).

The Alps' glaciers are in their worst summer condition in modern history.

Pitztal, Solden, Kaprun, Stubai, L2A, and Tignes glaciers all closed for August.

Saas Fee struggling to stay open.

Whistler, in Canada, closed and unable to last beyond July.


Stubai always closes (for skiing) the latter half of summer, then re-opens in Sept.

No idea what state it's in now, but up until early June it had something like 30+% of normal snow coverage/depth. This was June 1st:



The circled rock is normally a 2-3m cliff drop even in the depths of winter...



Definitely took a hit in the following heatwave though.

A few flakes have been falling recently though:

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Temperatures in the Alps look like making another summer rally this weekend.



Before dropping below average during the week.

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Nice little Wasaatch Weather Weenies Blog on snowflakes.

http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2019/08/how-alta-snowflake-is-really-created.html?m=1
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Persistently negative NAO continuing to dominate as it has done for most of the last four months.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Grasshopper on snow in New Zealand

http://www.mountainwatch.com/grasshopper/#new-zealand

Grasshopper on snow in Australia

http://www.mountainwatch.com/grasshopper/#australia

Snow Kangaroos


http://youtube.com/v/yLjIZJxYsk0
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I have always been inclined to file this sort of thing in the same place as long range forecasts based on the behaviour of Uncle Franzi's pet marmots or whatever. However this might just have some basis in reality. It would be ironic if the rapid melting of the Arctic ice leads to colder winters for western Europe!

http://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/record-low-july-arctic-sea-ice-extent-possible-implications-for-winter/
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@munich_irish, there is quite a bit of research to suggest lower sea ice could lead to increased meridional jet stream. That could lead to extended periods of colder weather. Of course it can also lead to extended periods of warm and or dry weather...
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@nozawaonsen, so no more accurate than Marmots Very Happy. If I understand it properly there is an increased likelihood of longer periods of similar weather which could mean lots of snow like last winter or it could mean a very dry winter.
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@munich_irish, yep that’s basically it. The more meridional (wavy) jet comes with increased blocking highs. When these get established they can lead to persistent weather of one sort or another.
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Mind you that said...

“The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice through climate change has only a “minimal influence” on severe cold winter weather across Asia and North America, new research has shown.”

Read more at http://emps.exeter.ac.uk/news-events/latestnews/articles/arcticsea-icelosshasminim.html#m7OSoO2QoPbSA8MF.99
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Australia seeing good snowfall at the moment.

Perisher getting record snow.

Chile, not so good.

Warm and wet.
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Bit more stormy weather on the way from the south before fine warm weather starts to push back over the weekend.

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2019082306_201908220527_2_stormforecast.xml
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