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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
8611 wrote:
Re Morris' numbers I think the better devil is his narratives than the numbers


Absolutely, numbers are very loose, especially where the GFS is concerned. That list is good for highlighting the areas in the firing line, but may be no better or worse than 'snow forecast', or the regular GFS snow charts on here.

I don't think it favours higher resorts though, as it's all dependent on where the bulk of snow is actually heading. Last few weeks the list has been dominated by Swiss, Italian and anywhere near the main ridge, while the last few seasons most of the time Hintertux and other Austrian resorts have ruled the rankings. It doesn't mean much for this winter....but I would say on average over the last few seasons the eastern areas have had the most consistent showings on this list.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Stormaggedon coming for the Thanksgiving holiday in the USA.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/25/weather/thanksgiving-monday-weather-forecast-wxc/index.html

A severe storm will pummel California this week, bringing heavy snow in the mountains and heavy rain to the coast and valleys, Hennen said.
"Winter storm warnings cover the Sierra, where snow will be measured in feet starting Tuesday and lasting into Friday," he said.
Up to 2 feet of snow could cover the mountains outside Los Angeles.
Elsewhere in Southern California, more than 10 million people are under flash flood watches from San Diego to Anaheim, where 1 to 3 inches of rain could make this Thanksgiving very soggy.
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@Toadman, been reading about the bombogenisis hitting the states this week, should bring widespread heavy snow as it tracks across towards the east coast.

Beyond the next 5-6 days europe could be looking at a high pressure set up, after a month of low pressure systems. The mid atlantic ridge topples in and the oscillators go positive, meaning cold air is kept a long way north and the westerly flow is diverted N/NE. If this block takes hold, as per below, then the eastern end of alps would have the best shot of snow. The med is also an area with low anomalies, so maybe some cold air reaching the alps back tracking from the NE under the block.

test8

In the more reliable timeframe....some big numbers for the next 3 days, 27th-29th. In the NW snowlines are 1800m wed, <1500m thurs and fri.
WRF 06z, GFS 06z, ECM 00z all throwing out 50-60cm. Then a break on saturday, before a final low sneaks in Sun/Mon (10-20cm) ahead of high pressure building from west.

144-24

That's the plan anyway, am off-ski
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Think it is quite likely that we will see a change in the big picture for the beginning of December. The AO index is going sky high and the jet stream finally seems to recover to a more normal condition, meaning westerly flow with more rain to the western part of Scandinavia and drier conditions in the Western Alps. Guess there are many people in Southern France and North of Italy that are happy for this change after being low-pressured bombed. However, there seems to be a last episode with heavy precipitation in the first days of December.
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Lots of snow falling across multiple Western US states. Heard on the radio that DIA was dealing with over 500 flight cancellations and close to a foot of snow.

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/11/25/denver-airport-flights-cancelled-november-snow/
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Bit of a washout in the French Alps tomorrow with the zero isotherm initially at 2500 meters (3000m in the Haute-Savoie) and heavy rain to 1800/2000 meters. It should drop Thursday to 1500m but given the foehn trashed the snow last weekend outside of pistes with snow making it is not looking very hopeful at the moment below 1800/2000 meters, above that altitude conditions are good.
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A dozen French resorts are open today across the Alps, Massif Central, and Pyrenees.

Lioran (Cantal), in Massif Central, ~150 miles west of Lyon, has 15cm on the valley floor at 1150m, and is ~30% open. Its earliest ever start.

Video here.
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seems generally southern alps above 2km- all good ......its not december yet. metres of snow in some places....zermatt best early season i am familair with....game on.
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@davidof, its not that bad, already snowing heavily at 1600m in Flaine
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polo wrote:
@davidof, its not that bad, already snowing heavily at 1600m in Flaine


The webcams show Les Brevieres at Tignes at 1550 has gone white again. So may be wet snow but clearly FL is down at the Western end of the Alps. Unsettled until Friday?
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Can someone help explain what's going on....

I've noticed for the past couple of weeks that the thick green "operating run" GFS line has been consistently very different from all the others. I'm used to seeing a lot of variance between lines more than a few days out, with convergence for nearer term forecasts, but the defining characteristic this time has been that even for 12-48hr forecasts there has been major divergence.

Not sure how to paste an image, but the current run for Chamonix shows this trait - the GFS output is way above all the others, even over the next 48hrs. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=45855&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1

Last week every run apart from the operating run was forecasting heavy snow, but the operating run kept saying nothing (and was the most accurate outcome).

What's happening? Why the large deviations even in near-term forecasts?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I've noticed that too, maybe running different models, old vs new ?
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snowdave wrote:
Can someone help explain what's going on....

I've noticed for the past couple of weeks that the thick green "operating run" GFS line has been consistently very different from all the others. I'm used to seeing a lot of variance between lines more than a few days out, with convergence for nearer term forecasts, but the defining characteristic this time has been that even for 12-48hr forecasts there has been major divergence.

Not sure how to paste an image, but the current run for Chamonix shows this trait - the GFS output is way above all the others, even over the next 48hrs. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=45855&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1

Last week every run apart from the operating run was forecasting heavy snow, but the operating run kept saying nothing (and was the most accurate outcome).

What's happening? Why the large deviations even in near-term forecasts?


I noticed it too a few weeks ago for the Dolomites. In the past few years it has happened but was quite rare. I'll try and find out from another weather forum to see if anyone knows!!
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snowdave wrote:
Can someone help explain what's going on....

I've noticed for the past couple of weeks that the thick green "operating run" GFS line has been consistently very different from all the others. I'm used to seeing a lot of variance between lines more than a few days out, with convergence for nearer term forecasts, but the defining characteristic this time has been that even for 12-48hr forecasts there has been major divergence.

Not sure how to paste an image, but the current run for Chamonix shows this trait - the GFS output is way above all the others, even over the next 48hrs. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=45855&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1

Last week every run apart from the operating run was forecasting heavy snow, but the operating run kept saying nothing (and was the most accurate outcome).

What's happening? Why the large deviations even in near-term forecasts?



Reply from another weather forum site!!:

"I think it may be simply because the models are initialised with some estimated data and therefore small changes are inevitable as soon as you tweak the opening position."
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@jimmybog, Thanks, but why would that cause things to be so different now/this year?

It almost feels like the operating run is being calculated on a totally different basis.

My understanding was that small changes in initial variables then compound over time to give greater variance a few days out, but for the very near term I struggle to understand the variance.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
snowdave wrote:
@jimmybog, Thanks, but why would that cause things to be so different now/this year?

It almost feels like the operating run is being calculated on a totally different basis.

My understanding was that small changes in initial variables then compound over time to give greater variance a few days out, but for the very near term I struggle to understand the variance.


Agree, the answer above has just been queried by another forum member. I will update with any new replies. The query to the answer I pasted is below:

But often it is the operational run that is out of kilter with ALL the other runs by a significant amount in one direction, so that can't be the reason, if the other runs have the starting conditions randomly tweaked. I've noticed the same thing and have no idea why. Maybe a resolution issue?
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So most of the storm had passed through the French N.A. by mid morning, around 10-15cm of fresh snow in some areas at altitude. It seems like most snow should fall tomorrow, Thursday. Meteo France are seeing up to half a meter in the Haute-Savoie ranges above 1700 meters with the snow/rain line from 1700 falling to 1500 meters. The Aravis should be the best area as the storm is tracking in from the west. Further south, not so much with just a dusting as far south as the Isere or in the far east of the area. High altitude areas like l'Alpe d'Huez should have good on piste conditions for Saturday down to resort level, off piste it will be rocky below 2000 meters and uneven higher up (fresh snow on hard uneven old snow). Lots of instability in places like the Haute-Maurienne where there was a lot of snow last weekend, above 2200/2400 meters but a lot now buried by fresh snow - as Meteo France says "a good analysis of the terrain is necessary" for safe travel.

Commenting on the snowpack Meteo France says "snow cover very mediocre, even in-existent, below 1500/1700 meters : humid snow or rotten with rain".

It is still quite warm for a start of winter (IMHO), Meteo France's long term bulletin sees the Alps as "dry" and "warm" for this winter, particularly the Southern Alps.

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davidof wrote:
............Lots of instability in places like the Haute-Maurienne where there was a lot of snow last weekend, above 2200/2400 meters but a lot now buried by fresh snow - as Meteo France says "a good analysis of the terrain is necessary" for safe travel........


I drove through the Haute-Maurienne on Monday and once through the Frejus Tunnel the snow was noticeably more on the Italian side, with the snow-line as low as Oulx.

The weather was +7 on the way up to Montgenevre though they had a lot of snow from the weekend Retour D'Est which was visibly consolidating, arrived back in Serre Che and the valley was devoid of snow, so opted to do nothing yesterday.

This morning awoke to heavy wet snow falling at 1,400m though the forecast was showing weather clearing so went back up to Montgenevre.

Did around 850m of climbing up to 2,600 and this was the first time this season that I felt the terrain was looking beautifully dangerous, and I opted for a sensible line though there were some tempting lines but the snow was very slabby and didn't take a lot for it to move.

Lower down snow was very very heavy.
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@jimmybog, @snowdave, it looks to be particularly exaggerated on wetterzentrale.de compared to meteociel.fr (though is there to a degree).

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Meteo France

http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/77309600-neige-en-montagne-proche-des-normales-nouveau-flocons-a-venir

Sur l'ensemble des grands massifs (Alpes, Pyrénées et Corse), l'enneigement est globalement proche des normales, donc encore modeste puisque nous sommes encore en début de saison.

Les disparités régionales sont néanmoins importantes et le manteau neigeux est assez hétérogène selon l'altitude.

Aux altitudes élevées (au-dessus de 2400 m environ) l'enneigement est un peu supérieur à la normale, voire nettement supérieur dans les Alpes le long de la frontière italienne (suite au retour d'est très actif du week-end dernier, lié au même épisode que les fortes inondations dans le Var et les Alpes-Maritimes). Dans les massifs de moyenne montagne (Vosges, Jura et Massif central), les pentes sont seulement blanchies par quelques centimètres de neige humide.
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Weathercam wrote:


This morning awoke to heavy wet snow falling at 1,400m though the forecast was showing weather clearing so went back up to Montgenevre.



MF give the snowline as lower for your area, 1300/1400 meters plus you had some of the retour d'est last weekend. Serre Che and company should be shaping up for a good start even down to the valley.

Around Grenoble we had rain to 1700 meters today, the bottom of the pistes in the local resorts are a washout.

One of the features of the foehn is that it is warmer on the north side of the mountains and gets progressively warmer as you go further north, this seems to chime with your observations.
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@davidof, actually we missed out a lot on the Retour D'Est compared to Sestriere where they had 50cm+ at 1,500m

And like you now the pistes we skied into resort last week are washed out too

Temps and snow were a tad bizarre today, +3 and it was still snowing, but coming back after my trip to Montgenevre most of the morning's snow has gone.
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Hi all,

I’ve used the www1.wetter3.de website for many years, I think I got the idea from @nozawaonsen. Opening that website today I repeatedly get a message

“Dieser Hinweis erscheint sehr wahrscheinlich deswegen, weil Sie einen Adblocker verwenden.
Bitte deaktivieren Sie Ihren Adblocker für wetter3 und unterstützen Sie auf diese Art unser Angebot,
damit es auch weiterhin kostenfrei angeboten werden kann. Vielen Dank.
Die gewünschte Seite wird in Kürze geöffnet.
Most likely this message appears because you are using an adblocker.
Please disable your adblocker for wetter3 and support our free service. Thank you very much.
The desired page will be opened shortly.”

I don’t have an adblocker.

Any ideas please to solve this issue? Cheers.
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try using different browsers and delete your cookies
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Not sure about your green lines and enneigement but looks like Saturday will be a powder day snowHead snowHead

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Sat is the plan, charge the GoPro’s

Didn’t catch all the detail re. GFS op, but remember only the Op switched to the new FV3 model in the summer. The ensemble suite GEFS is still running off the old GFS model, so you’ll see much more distinct variance even within a few days.

Was nice to see big fat flakes at breakfast but quickly turned to sleet all day, getting colder now.

Watched 10-15 liftie gang skiing loads of runs 8am-9am, lots of whooping, some of us have to work and then climb up on foot
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@polo, SmileSmile

I can hardly control my excitement at the thought of seeing all that Verbier and Serre Che ski tip footage.

My own footage will be stored where only I can see it Wink
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Never mind hope it delivers for all you Weekend Warriors Laughing
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zzz wrote:
@polo, SmileSmile

I can hardly control my excitement at the thought of seeing all that Verbier and Serre Che ski tip footage.

My own footage will be stored where only I can see it Wink


Excellent news! Will be sure to post up a few in several threads so no chance of you missing them snowHead

Looking dry, albeit remaining cold into Dec. Will need another decent dump before Xmas or there’ll be trouble!

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davidof wrote:
High altitude areas like l'Alpe d'Huez should have good on piste conditions for Saturday down to resort level>


and a confirmation, it snowed down to about 1700 meters at l'Alpe d'Huez, just below the town as can be seen on the Auris webcam. Good weather for Saturday morning before a return to unsettled weather on Sunday with snow down to 1000 meters, or lower.

https://www.skaping.com/alpedhuez/auris
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BobinCH wrote:
........Will need another decent dump before Xmas or there’ll be trouble!..........


Didn't mention it on here, but in the 3V thread.

Over the weekend at Val Thorens I was stunned at how the high winds have stripped ALL the off-piste from every aspect of the various mountains and bowls.

You'd be quite depressed if going there for some early season off-piste with no sign of a major dump, and even then you always have the threat of the wind.

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Weathercam wrote:


Over the weekend at Val Thorens I was stunned at how the high winds have stripped ALL the off-piste from every aspect of the various mountains and bowls.



The foehn is terrible, it did for our local runs too. The problem is, 20-30cm can cover all the rocks which you only find when you go off piste!
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Should I/we be getting a tad optimistic about Sunday ?

Or is that being, le verre à moitié plein (plutôt qu'à moitié vide)

I await to be pulled up on my linguistics Laughing
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Re. videos, I nearly always have my camera with me, and enjoy making the odd video, needs special conditions and a good choon.

Here's Flaine at 1700m lunchtime today

IMG-8144

High pressure in charge next week
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useful webcam image at Damuels, 1573m , this was grass a few days ago...

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This has been one of the snowiest Novembers of all time in the Western European Alps.

Nov 2019 will go down as a big one.

Way above average.

Vast parts of the Alps have seen 100-300cm of snowfall in a month.

Southern parts got the most.

Italy, Switzerland, Austria and France got battered.

More snow yet to come.

Roughly 100cm in parts of France, like 3 Vs, the next week.

Val d'Isere opens this coming weekend and is white from summit to village.

Eastern Europe, Germany and Scotland, not so good.

Hardly a flake in many places.

Some stations are starting to panic.
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According to SLF, snow depths are around average for Western Swiss Alps. Météo France report said similar. What is your source? Austria, Italy and Swiss border got battered but that’s not Western Alps

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@BobinCH, trolls/clickbaiters don't have sources!
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@kitenski, plus they have no understanding of snow-pack.

Thing is that a lot of the snow that fell in the Southern Alps last weekend has consolidated fast due to the warm temps.

I've done two sorties this week and you'll only find cold snow above 1,900m below that it's rather spring-like, but on the piste it's going to make for a great base.

And just for @zzz, I'll post today's vid in the Serre Che thread as it's not the weekend Laughing
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French Northern Alps

JLOOTW snow is falling to 1600 meters in the mountains above Grenoble this lunchtime. The snowfalls to date haven't been massive higher up. The Beaufortain has copped around half a meter at 2300 meters since Monday, which is nice. On Monday you could ski down to around 1700 meters off piste in the area.


So like 2016 and 2017 it is a game of two halves - good conditions above 2000 meters. French resorts able to open pistes from 1500 to 2000 meters where they have snowmaking but only limited opportunities to run it to date (well it is only November).

Hoping Sunday will improve the <2000m slopes and especially open or reopen some of the lower terrain. There is supposed to be around 25cm of snow from 800 meters. A day to stay indoors in front of Bargain Hunt though as the tree skiing will lack any base. Early next week could be good but watch the avy risk, already two accidents in the Savoie. There is already a complex situation in the Haute-Maurienne and Haute-Tarentaise judging by the avalanche control work - we could have a PWL situation; keep an eye on how things develop. Haute-Savoie prefecture have an avalanche advisory out for the week-end.

If you are skiing in the first half of December and going to a resort with terrain above 1800 meters it should be good, Avoriaz, Tignes, l'Alpe d'Huez, Chamrousse even. To name a few.
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