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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Models today are suggesting in the direction of an Atlantic rigde towards the beginning of December. Will probably see cold conditions in the Northern part of the continent. Also colder in the Central parts of the continent compared to next week. Might we see a Stau effect in December????
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Looks like we’ll be skiing in porridge this weekend. 8 degrees in Verbier at 1500m on Saturday Shocked Fingers crossed for a return to cold by the next one....
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
GFS showing a return to colder conditions as we enter December, but still too far away for any certainty??

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For the end of November, recent GFS runs are the least snowy for a change, vs ECM, UKMO, ICON.
GFS has higher pressure to the south east around the med / balkans, but we've seen it lower heights in this area as it gets nearer several times already this season, allowing for better troughing / snow over alps.

ECM 12z had 60cm in Avoriaz 27-29th, ECM 00z updated to 40cm.....FL dropping from 2000 to 1400m
https://www.yr.no/place/France/Rh%C3%B4ne-Alpes/Avoriaz/long.html

Looks like GFS 06z moving towards the other models


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Fri 22-11-19 11:33; edited 1 time in total
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@kitenski, a shift to colder weather at the end of November/start of December has been being toyed with for a while now.

This is the block developing on 00z GFS.



ECM also on board.



So not certain, but increasingly looking likely.
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Meanwhile some heavy snow headed for NW Italy and bordering parts of France and Switzerland. Snow line likely to be up to 2000m at times.

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Genova low?
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mooney058 wrote:
Genova low?


Genoa?

Yes, I know her very well and she is always very welcome when she comes to visit!! wink

She can be a bit of a whirlwind at times, but she nearly always brings good presents! snowHead
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Snow line likely to be up to 2000m at times.


Technically this looks likely on the GFS 06z you used. But in the NW at least, 90% of the predicted snow would be closer to 1400m. Too far for such detail, but that's what the run is showing

Screenshot-2019-11-22-at-14-03-36

In fact, using the 29th as a cut off date as per above graph, 100% of the snow would be around 1400m. Too much detail I know.
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@polo, I was referring the heavy snow that is arriving in NW Italy. This starts later today, tomorrow and Sunday. During this period there will be milder stormy Föhn driven weather. So neither the location nor the time period you are referring to.
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but the graph you used goes out to 29th Nov, and the comments refer to bordering parts of france.....maybe more detail needed around where and when the "2000m snowline" referred to
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@polo, it referred to the snow arriving in NW Italy this weekend as has been discussed a fair bit on the previous page. If you want clarification please feel free to ask, I’m always happy to do so.
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Heavy snow in the Alps made the afternoon BBC News 24 weather, particularly Slovenia where there is high avalanche risk with > 3m snow!
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You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen, it's ok, you've already clarified that the date range of your comments was not the same as the date range of the accompanying graph.

Doesn't change much as you said, most of the snow in the graph falls this weekend, but 27th and 28th are also reasonably heavy on that run
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looks like it is snowing now in Soelden, which didn't seem to appear on any forecasts I was checking???
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Weather outlook from this evening’s SLF update covering Switzerland.

https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html#snowpack

Clearly the avalanche level in affected areas will rise substantially.

“Weather forecast through Saturday, 23.11.2019

As a result of foehn wind storms, skies in the northern regions will have some bright intervals. In the other regions of Switzerland, skies will be heavily overcast. On the Main Alpine Ridge and southwards therefrom, snowfall is anticipated. The snowfall will be persistent and heavy from the Upper Valais into Ticino. The snowfall level will lie at approximately 1400 m to begin with. On Saturday morning, the snowfall level will ascend in Sotto Ceneri and north of the Main Alpine Ridge to begin with, subsequently also in the regions lying in between, towards nearly 2000 m.

Fresh snow

Between Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon, the following amounts of fresh snow are anticipated above approximately 2200 m:

- Valleys of Visp, Simplon region, Binntal, Bedretto, upper valleys of Leventina and valleys of Maggia: 60 to 80 cm; along the border between the Valais and Italy as much as 100 cm;

- Main Alpine Ridge from the Great St. Bernard as far as Monte Rosa, southern Upper Goms, upper part of Ticino, Moesano: 40 to 60 cm;

- remaining sectors of the Main Alpine Ridge from Goms as far as the Bernina, as well as the Aletsch region over the Hasli valleys into the Maderanertal: 20 to 40 cm;

- further to the north, only a small amount of precipitation; or else it will remain dry.

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, between a mild +6 °C an the northern flank of the Alps and 0 °C in the southern regions.

Wind

Winds in the southern regions will be blowing at strong velocity, in the other regions at storm-strength, from southerly to southeasterly directions.
in the valleys of the northern regions, foehn storm is anticipated.


Outlook through Monday, 25.11.2019
Sunday

The intensive snowfall in the southern regions is expected to persist until about midnight, subsequently it will incrementally diminish in intensity. During the daytime in southern regions, skies will be overcast for the most part, still accompanied by light precipitation. The snowfall level is expected to drop to approximately 1600 m. North of the Main Alpine Ridge it will be quite sunny. The winds are expected to slacken off incrementally during the early morning hours of Monday.”
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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From Val D'Isere pisteurs, mainly posted for the excellent use of monstrous Smile

>> notice of very heavy snowfall in Haute-maurienne
UP TO 1 M50 expected

In connection with the south weather well in place until Sunday morning, the rain will become more regular tonight in Haute-Maurienne. They will grow up tomorrow as they become very supported on the border peaks.
The situation will remain frozen until Sunday morning.
These rain will be starting from Saturday and until Sunday at the end of the day to the domaine de tignes on the one hand and the extreme south of Val-Thorens on the other. Winning North will be very marked.
The Snow-rain limit is between 1600/1800 meters in the most subject areas of the lombard and often 1800/1900 meters elsewhere in Haute-maurienne but 2000/2200 meters in South-vanoise or Haute-Tarentaise.

The cumulation are going to be locally monstrous, we wait until Sunday so above 2300/2400 meters:
- 1 mètre50 of snow along the border to the sources of the arc, and up to 2 meters on Italy!
- 1 good meter of snow east of bessans in general and on Mont-Cenis.
- 70 cm at 1 meters on the pisaillas (Val D ' Isère).
- 30 cm at 60 cm West on the rest of the killy area (Tignes / Val D ' Isère).
- 15 to 25 cm at the top of the Val-Thorens area.

Everywhere else, the foehn and Lombard will remain tempestuous on the areas of altitude exposed especially in the morning (Peaks at 150-180 km / h on large spots in high mountain) with cloudy weather but a ceiling often high and therefore rare Clear of foehn. The weather will often be dry with rare rainy, or snowy above 2200 meters, on the south of isère.
The wind will grow very gradually in the afternoon.

Maximum temperatures reach + 9 to + 14 degrees in the plains and + 5 to + 9 degrees around 1500 meters (locally + 12 degrees per of effect).

Your forecast for the following days has been updated:
https://www.meteoalpes.fr/bulletin/alpes-du-nord/
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
It could well be warm enough in Munich tomorrow afternoon (around 15 degrees) for some of the beer gardens to open for a few hours, definitely not the weather for any early christmas markets. Should be perfect weather for the tourist images of the city with the snow capped mountains in the background. Hopefully it will soon get colder and wetter again.
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Verbier closed due to wind. Assume similar elsewhere?
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Yep. Stubai closed and Axamer Lizum only managing a drag lift on opening day! Kühtai claims to have three or four lifts open, but it's probably still pretty windy up there. Looks like it might settle down a bit tomorrow.
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Soelden appears to be open (not the glacier) despite reporting strong winds
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BobinCH wrote:
Verbier closed due to wind. Assume similar elsewhere?


Wind or lack of snow due to the 24 hour foehn - around Grenoble at least.
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BobinCH wrote:
Verbier closed due to wind. Assume similar elsewhere?


Same here - Wengen.
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Drove up to VT today in the hope of a few runs-it's blowing a hoolie-water on the road up was being blown uphill! Not really snowing up there, so the vis isn't bad. It's opening day-all they can open are magic carpets, with other lifts "on hold". Parking in the village (rather than the free carpark down below the village) to access the baby slopes was too much of a hassle. We revised our plans turned round and came back to 1450m. 7 degrees here. Hoping it will have settled down for a quick ski tomorrow morning.
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The Genoa low seems to be causing a lot of disruption, not least floods in Genoa itself but with lots of snow in the mountains too https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker/neue-unwetter-rund-um-die-westalpen-201911235476780. The pictures are mainly from Ticino but the largest amounts of snowfall seem more likely in north west Piedmont and the Aosta valley
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The weather never ceases to amaze, even when expected, as the Mrs drove back this afternoon from aosta thru relentlessly heavy rain and wind on the south side, then clear calm sunny weather on the north side of mont blanc tunnel.
While storms raged to the south, it has been paddle boarding weather around lac Leman, and the farmers finally decided to start harvesting the maize.

IMG-8124

Now that the jet is changing tack from south to west, here's ICON focused view out to the 29th Nov. Good agreement across models for heavy snow from wed 27th, starting at 2000m but snowline dropping quickly towards 1400m in the NW on thurs and friday, and lower still into early Dec.

iconeu-45-120-4

After that is anyone's guess, the strat PV is slowing while the trop PV is speeding up, so AO looks set for a huge spike towards +3 or more. Right on cue for those long term model predictions of +ve NAO and AO from Dec on.


Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Sun 24-11-19 18:59; edited 1 time in total
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Bonneval sur Arc photo by Remi Demier. Bit of snow apparently.

A cold start to December very much looks on at the moment (ECM and GFS both strongly supporting it) With temperatures falling -12C below average for the time of year across the Alps.



12z GFS FI for what it’s worth, currently suggests it will warm again briefly before dropping colder again.

And while we are at it here’s Dave from the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries. Dave doesn’t like cold, but he does have some pretty good tips for managing cold, frostbite and hypothermia in particular.


http://youtube.com/v/x4tzVjNTnbI
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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18z GFS and 12z ECM going for cold across the Alps from 30 November to at least 04 December this evening.
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Chamonix takes the top spots on WePowder 6 day

Screenshot-2019-11-25-at-10-17-02
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polo wrote:
Chamonix takes the top spots on WePowder 6 day

Screenshot-2019-11-25-at-10-17-02


which year are those figures for?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Morris' snow numbers are usually on the "optimistic" side though perhaps they are "unconsolidated" (or whatever the technical term is) depths rather than the amounts actually encountered after snowfall. What is notable is how the weather has changed back to a more typical pattern of fronts coming in from the west / north west, fairly normal mildish, damp and windy weather for this time of year. Just needs to change a bit more to set up a "Nordstau" over the more easterly alps Smile
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@munich_irish, so that's a forecast for the next week?
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@davidof, yep, the alps will see precipitation from time to time, some of which will fall as snow, it will be windy in places and the sun might shine sometimes Smile
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No mention of Avoriaz who I would suspect would be one of the major beneficiaries of the weather set up in the next week
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munich_irish wrote:
@davidof, yep, the alps will see precipitation from time to time, some of which will fall as snow, it will be windy in places and the sun might shine sometimes Smile



….. and snow conditions will be better on the upper slopes. (the slopes without grass)
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@davidof, that's the next 6 days, snow wed-mon. There isn't any sunny break at all on the GFS 06z until next Tuesday....but it's likely to be over-doing it.

Think someone said he uses GFS raw data, so usual caveats, but ECM and other models have been consistent with 50cm+ for the western end.
Here's the full list at the moment, Chatel/Avoriaz in the top 40.....but not to be taken literally, just show's roughly where the main impact is likely

https://wepowder.com/en[b]
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Chamonix Meteo also suggesting heavy snow on Weds / Thurs / Fri

http://m.chamonix-meteo.com/en/index.php

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polo wrote:
@davidof, that's the next 6 days, snow wed-mon. There isn't any sunny break at all on the GFS 06z until next Tuesday....but it's likely to be over-doing it.



thanks @polo and @munich_irish, caveats duly noted. Looks positive, will depend on the FL at 1500 meters is right on the edge of feast, or washout.
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I always think any of the "ranked by snowfall" lists are skewed for Chamonix because of the height of the Aiguille du Midi and also the top bin in GM, as in, I suspect some of the models assess highest snowfall at highest lift, therefore Chamonix tops those lists more regularly than any other resort

However, it may also in fairness be because of the influence of the Mont Blanc Massif on the weather generally. Presumably stuff gets wedged up against MB regularly and if it tends to come from a given side it tends to dump in Chamonix? Certainly, the difference can be quite striking between Chamonix and Courmayeur, and again between Courmayeur and Monte Rosa and I'm assuming the explanation for that is the MB Massif

Re Morris' numbers I think the better devil is his narratives than the numbers, at least if you're planning on skiing as opposed to just keeping a passing eye on conditions
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In Val for opening weekend in Friday, looks like it'll be a wild a wolly one.
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