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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Meanwhile...

Potential for SSW brewing in FI.





Which could have some interesting downstream impacts...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, sounds intriguing!

Personally I like the odd clips (especially of rando dogs!). I don't go on the Serre Chev thread, focusing on this one and the areas I'm traveling to this season. So they're a welcome addition for me. To be able to see abundant snow conditions in mid Nov is a good thing!
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Good. So I think we are moving towards a consensus. Videos of dogs in fresh snow are allowed. Otherwise not so good. Just need to crowdfund @Davidof and @Bobinch some hounds. I for one have found the cut and thrust of the debate quite exhilarating, but am glad it’s now over.

Föhn moving in at the end of the week.

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zzz wrote:
........how many regular skiers actually know where the Col du Cucumelle is.........


Actually a fair amount of Snowheads, as many ski that when visiting here either when on their hols or on the very popular Off Piste Bash, as that is one of the main runs in Serre Chevalier!

Main reason though for posting was to show the contrast in condition to the vids of @BobinCH, and @davidof, Laughing

Weather looking very volatile this week with a series of troughs and lows tracking across, especially over N Italy and net result some heavy snow in Piedmont.

I'm driving up to Val Thorens this weekend so will be interesting to see the difference over the course of the journey.





Bit of a dusting this morning, waiting for the sun to appear and may go for a little tourette Laughing
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nozawaonsen wrote:
......Videos of dogs in fresh snow are allowed.........



Ok a quick blast from the past to raise a smile, and yes that is a bark and not a duck nearby Laughing


http://youtube.com/v/thH4SLK5nms
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Föhn moving in at the end of the week.


That's going to strip some snow! What elevation are those temps shown at?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen wrote:


Föhn moving in at the end of the week.



Can I just clarify from that chart, that this will be a southerly Fohn that will affect the Northern side of the Alpine ridge??
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zzz wrote:


Maybe, if we want to post about interesting cols we could have a dedicated touring route section. We could post Headcam footage to our hearts delight and perhaps a bit of Strava action too. Seriously, might be useful?


Weathercam started such a thread last season but it failed to gain much traction then, maybe this year?

A bit of pre-season footage seems not unreasonable but point noted now things are ramping up.
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Potential for quite a bit of snow round Piedmont this weekend as @Weathercam mentions.



And 00z GFS another run which produces cold weather at the end of the month.



@kitenski, it’s the pressure gradient between Zurich and Lugano.

@jimmybog, it is indeed a sudföhn as the chart says.
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nozawaonsen wrote:


@jimmybog, it is indeed a sudföhn as the chart says.


Thank You Nozawaonsen!!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
06z also fetches some cold at the end of the month.

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
zzz wrote:
I like the rando dogs; (I used to have a couple myself) but I can see them on the Serre Chev thread, as well as the snow conditions should I choose to look. As Polo says, if we all start posting headcam footage (someone please shoot me if I ever wear one skiing) then the thread will be clogged up with total dangly bits. And to those who want to see the actual snow conditions, how many regular skiers actually know where the Col du Cucumelle is, or the Cols D’Encranaz, Cou, Fornet etc etc.


The thing I find most useful about this thread is the snapshot overview of how the snow and conditions are across the Alps, which we won't get if people only post in the regional threads (frankly I can't be bothered to click through all of them, and only do if I'm thinking of going to whichever zone). Detailed TRs and the resultant discussions belong in the regional threads, but a quick pic or vid of conditions in x area I find very useful in this thread.

Basically Whitegoldhad it right:

Whitegold wrote:
This thread has always been a blend of today's videos from smug gloaters and tomorrow's predictions from weather nerds.

It works well.

It is by far the most popular thread on SH (apart from the Brexit hysteria in Apres).

Always something new to read.

The forward-forecasts lookout 1 day to 3 weeks.

The videos and photos visualize the latest situation, right now.

A picture paints a thousand words.


Leave the thread as it is.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Good update on UK weather so far this month.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2019/11/19/wet-or-dry-november-mid-month-statistics/

Obviously very wet round Sheffield. Very dry in western Scotland. And very sunny in Shetland.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Scotland being doing well for snowvember as well!

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Not quite the conditions I would take a mountain bike onto the hill...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
...."Potential for SSW brewing in FI"

Been steadily forecast by GFS and CFS at 10hpa for 2-3 weeks now, with zonal winds slowing down from record high above 30 m/s to below 10 m/s. Would need to go -ve to signal SSW, but a significant disruption to strat at least. Whether any of that zonal wobble makes it to the troposphere, never mind europe, ls the question.

Back on planet earth, disagreement between ECM and GFS 8-10days out on whether we'll get high pressure anomalies to the south or to the north. GFS more keen on the westerly driven series of troughs and ridges across the alps, while ECM still stalling the lows out in the atlantic.

test8

btw...dog throwing vid hilarious, my b*tch is too heavy, and my snow ain't that deep Cool . Also enjoyed davidof's boots struggles / random commentary. Am off to Flaine for a few days, packing everything, except the dog.
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If you are really into the nerdy stuff here is a 3D video of the possible SSW event.


http://youtube.com/v/sSalXa6mDHI

More important than graphs or animations is the question, when will it snow again in the northern Austrian alps? looks like a period of mild and dry weather for the next couple of weeks which is not good for snow conditions Sad
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
munich_irish wrote:
If you are really into the nerdy stuff...(


I think that's a given on this thread snowHead wink
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Weathercam wrote:
may go for a little tourette Laughing


OK, as long as it doesn't involve interspersing your reports with involuntary expletives! $#!%! Laughing
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This low pressure system in the Mediterranen on 12z GFS looks like is will bring fresh snow to Piedmont at he weekend.



This would bring snow across the whole of the Alps at the end of the month if it played out.

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No fear of more powder skiing vids with this forecast Crying or Very sad

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@BobinCH, it’s not quite as gloomy as that as the WZ charts have dropped the op run. Looks better (and is more useful) with it.



What sort of dog are you thinking of buying?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@nozawaonsen, hahaha have you been speaking to my daughter?

Double posting a gloating powder vid from the weekend of a highly localised, non-representative, unheard of col for the thread police to enjoy NehNeh

http://youtube.com/v/GdMhbmWelHA
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@BobinCH, Laughing Laughing
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Whatever. Wink
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Weathercam wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
......Videos of dogs in fresh snow are allowed.........



Ok a quick blast from the past to raise a smile, and yes that is a bark and not a duck nearby Laughing


http://youtube.com/v/thH4SLK5nms


Can you train them to board?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Worth keeping a bit of an eye on how that high pressure round Greenland develops. Potential to become a blocking pattern.

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
clarky999 wrote:
zzz wrote:
I like the rando dogs; (I used to have a couple myself) but I can see them on the Serre Chev thread, as well as the snow conditions should I choose to look. As Polo says, if we all start posting headcam footage (someone please shoot me if I ever wear one skiing) then the thread will be clogged up with total dangly bits. And to those who want to see the actual snow conditions, how many regular skiers actually know where the Col du Cucumelle is, or the Cols D’Encranaz, Cou, Fornet etc etc.


The thing I find most useful about this thread is the snapshot overview of how the snow and conditions are across the Alps, which we won't get if people only post in the regional threads (frankly I can't be bothered to click through all of them, and only do if I'm thinking of going to whichever zone). Detailed TRs and the resultant discussions belong in the regional threads, but a quick pic or vid of conditions in x area I find very useful in this thread.

Basically Whitegoldhad it right:

Whitegold wrote:
This thread has always been a blend of today's videos from smug gloaters and tomorrow's predictions from weather nerds.

It works well.

It is by far the most popular thread on SH (apart from the Brexit hysteria in Apres).

Always something new to read.

The forward-forecasts lookout 1 day to 3 weeks.

The videos and photos visualize the latest situation, right now.

A picture paints a thousand words.


Leave the thread as it is.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.


+1 to that, great as it is.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
.....Potential for quite a bit of snow round Piedmont this weekend as @Weathercam mentions......



Just had a quick perusal as was curious as to what Queyras had forecast next six days - take note of the minimum and max resort altitudes


Abriès Domaine d'Abriès 1579 - 2430m 182cm 157cm 8cm
Saint-Véran Molines-en-Queyras/​Saint-Véran 2051 - 2797m 159cm 130cm 93cm

Then thought I'd look at the resort than never could be named, Prali

Prali 1475 - 2507m 151cm 119cm 10cm

and then looked at Sestrierre

Sestrière Via Lattea - Sestrière 2034 - 2569m 165cm 145cm 117cm

So this time round this does look like a classic Retour D'Est that impacts the Queyras more than the Piedmont, with Limone Piemonte only scoring 80cm at altitude

Muggins is driving to VT Friday so will be able to report first hand what it's like even down to Cesana / Oulx, and think I may well have to curtail my visit Puzzled

This is a report from way back in 2014 and my first experience of a Retour D'ESt before the likes of Morris had ever used the phrase Laughing



Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Wed 20-11-19 14:47; edited 4 times in total
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
The bergfex ski app has upped it's snow forecast for La Plagne for Saturday - it was showing as 2cm a few days ago, to 10cm yesterday and now it's showing 19cm.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
December looks cold and snowy in Western Europe.

Early signs 2019-2020 will be a vintage season.

This is a helo view of the (blocked) passes to the west of Cortina, northern Italy.

Borrowed from the Dolomites thread. Worth a bigger audience.

Video here.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Watching.
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@Handy Turnip,

Don’t believe your bergfex app I doubt it will snow in La Plagne in Saturday or any of the Tarentaise bar apart from Val D and very close to the Italian border . The low from Italy won’t make it over the Alpine ridge and the foehn wind won’t allow it .
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@Whitegold, what's your info source for December looking cold and snowy in Western Europe?

I don't see it in the models yet (and isn't it too far in advance anyway?).
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@Whitegold, not sure which forecasts you are looking at, all the ones I have seen suggest mild weather more likely than cold. Lots of snow in November does not mean a vintage season, a lot of the lying snow is likely to disappear over the next week or so due to föhn conditions north of the main ridge.
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Rob Mackley wrote:
@Handy Turnip,

Don’t believe your bergfex app I doubt it will snow in La Plagne in Saturday or any of the Tarentaise bar apart from Val D and very close to the Italian border . The low from Italy won’t make it over the Alpine ridge and the foehn wind won’t allow it .


Good to know, keeps my expectations in check! Interestingly, the app has now added snow in for early next week too, with 10-15cm forecast for next Wed/Thurs.
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As the crow flies Serre Chevalier is 33km from Abries in the Queyras, or a lot less if you were to draw a line from Briancon to Abries.

I often mention how weather patterns can be somewhat localised, blocked by Alpine ridges and the like such at the Lautaret, this is a good example.

And for sure, that low could still move 10km in any direction and drastically affect the predicted snow fall.



And a side by side comparison of the forecast, and the majority of this Retour D'ESt will fall right of the Col D'Izoard (centre picture)



Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Thu 21-11-19 7:59; edited 2 times in total
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Any substantive Föhn conditions are limited to Friday and Saturday at present.

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Any snow on the horizon for Scotland boys and girls?? Puzzled
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@Weathercam,

+ 1 (retour d'est)
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