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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Mark1863 wrote:
The thread seems to turning into a snow conditions report for individual resorts - more appropriate to the various resort threads?
The title is
"The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread"
Just a thought.


Think its bad now, wait till the heavy snow hits the French resorts!! You'll be able to get a complete snow report from each area in this one thread!! Laughing Laughing
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Mark1863, @Rob Mackley, @jimmybog, this evening this thread seems to be full of people moaning, but not contributing to discussion of the weather outlook? Wink Any thoughts lads?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Sorry if I came across as moaning. Enjoy the thread but it is drifting well off topic. Had my say and will just read.
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Well I was teasing really. But my point was if you want more discussion of the weather outlook on the thread then please do contribute.

By and large I agree if people want to post extensively about the current conditions then that’s better done in a separate thread, though a sense of how it’s turned out compared to the forecast is not unhelpful and photos can help that.

Meanwhile Monday morning blues may be helped by a glance at the chart below...



Temperatures dropping quite sharply tomorrow, though warming above average mid month before cooling again after.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@Mark1863, @Rob Mackley, @jimmybog, this evening this thread seems to be full of people moaning, but not contributing to discussion of the weather outlook? Wink Any thoughts lads?


Point taken, was only trying to inject a bit of humour into the discussions!!

So I will try and add something to the weather outlook discussion:

Below is the latest GFS ensemble for Seiser Alm in the Dolomites. Decent amount of snow still forecast for tomorrow night though looks like it will be fairly brief. Initial snowline will be around 1600/1700m asl but then dropping down to 1000/1100m asl.
Still looks good for more snow Friday and into the weekend, though its still a few days away and I would like to see more agreement between the different runs before I get excited.

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As has been mentioned back end of the week and on into the following week looking positive.

Chart showing an area of low pressure pretty well slap bang over Genoa.



And this is how that pans out as predicted snowfall



Early days though
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Friday snow still looking good on 06z GFS... (and still got Tuesday and Wednesday snow to come in the east... )




http://youtube.com/v/jK33V7FGjd8
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Fingers crossed that it all stops for our 2 ski days at Tignes next Sat and Sun.... wink
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Bergfex is showing significantly less snow on Friday morning around Innsbruck versus up the Zillertal valley (Hintertux close to Italian border). I have a flight into INN so praying visibility and wind ok.

Am I right in saying the Italian side likely to get more of the goods again?
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Bennyboy1 wrote:
Bergfex is showing significantly less snow on Friday morning around Innsbruck versus up the Zillertal valley (Hintertux close to Italian border). I have a flight into INN so praying visibility and wind ok.

Am I right in saying the Italian side likely to get more of the goods again?



Italian side will have a decent amount of snow but also looks like places on the Austrian side will do fairly well (Obergurgl and Hintertux for example)
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According to Bergfex Kaprun (Kitzsteinhorn) and the Mölltaler Glacier should see a lot of snow ...

https://www.bergfex.at/kitzsteinhorn-kaprun/wetter/berg/

https://www.bergfex.at/moelltalergletscher/wetter/berg/
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@jimmybog, @DB, ok so East as well as South.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I keep seeing the mass of green bars for snow on the GFS charts, then the next run they all completely disappear.

Are they trying something out with the models, or is just a bug they are trying to iron out?

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Scandinavia very cold.

As low as -30c at night.

Northern Sweden being pounded with snow this week.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
18z (like 12z) GFS throws in another band of snow on Sunday.

Which would mean something like this if it came off...

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Is that up to 3.5 meters of snow in Eastern Alps?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Record freeze across lower 48.

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
18z (like 12z) GFS throws in another band of snow on Sunday.

Which would mean something like this if it came off...



Snowmaggedon!
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Snowmaggedon! Hopefully

what do the figures in white mean 219, 134, 353 etc, please
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@dublin2, weight of accumulated snow in kg/m2. Which very roughly equates to accumulated snow depth in cms, depending on density of snow which depends on temperature amongst other things.

A few further caveats. It is simply a graphic representation of the GFS op run slapped on a map. So it is very unlikely to actually come out like that. The op fluctuates from run to run. As a result where the snowfall will actually fall and amounts are subject to considerable change. And finally forecasting snowfall accurately anywhere is just really hard.

But all that said it’s a helpful snapshot of what the latest run is showing. Which is a lot of snow. 00z has even more.

Worth noting that if it does come off as forecast freezing levels are going to range quite a bit (from 100m in places today to possibly 2200m on Sunday) and there could be some strong winds about.
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Bennyboy1 wrote:
@jimmybog, @DB, ok so East as well as South.


More that it's pushing up into the centre of the alpine ridge (many of the glaciers are almost on the border between AT and IT).
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Down here in the Sarf we've lost the predicted snow for early next week, however, Thurs Fri could see snow at lower altitudes for the first time this season.

VIGILANCE NEIGE : Première offensive de la neige à basse altitude à prévoir dans la nuit de jeudi à vendredi.
La LPN vers 1000 à 1200 m dans un premier temps jeudi après-midi devrait s'abaisser en soirée et nuit suivante vers 800/700 m puis les derniers flocons en milieu fin de nuit pourraient tomber jusqu'à 500/600 m du sud des Hautes-Alpes aux Alpes-de-Haute-Provence. Arpège nous modélise entre 600 et 1000 m un coup de blanc à 5/10 cm. Vers 1000 m en fonction des massifs prévoir 5/15 cm, entre 1200 et 1500 m le couche pourrait s'épaissir jusqu'à 20/40 cm. En altitude au delà de 2000 m une nouvelle couche de 30 à plus de 50 cm devrait encore bien fournir les domaines skiables des stations. Ces premières probabilités demandent encore a être affinées dans les 24 heures.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Might want to wait for a few days for that lot to settle down!
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It's a promising start to the season in the Pyrenees. At the western end of the range there has already been a couple of metres of accumulated snowfall on the French side, and the current snowy conditions look set to continue - with lower temperatures - for the next week or so.

The first resort to open in each Pyrenean country: Masella (Spain) in the east, tomorrow; Arcalís (Andorra) and Porté Puymorens (France) in the eastern central part, on Saturday (along with several other Spanish resorts in the west).

Apparently Porté Puymorens will be the first non-glacier ski area to open in France. And not for the first time, I think; the French do like to drag their heels, but in the Pyrenees there's the motivation of the long Spanish bank holiday weekend in early December that gets the winters tourism motors started throughout the range.
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90cm fresh in Obergurgl.
Strange that Sölden (which is only 9 miles away) has not reported any new snow.
Edit - Looks to have been a typo, Obergurgl is no longer showing the 90cm Fresh.
https://www.bergfex.at/oesterreich/schneewerte/

Kaprun Looking better with 50cm Fresh. Will be at Kaprun in 9 days for the ski-touring testival - any other snowheads around?
https://www.bergfex.at/kitzsteinhorn-kaprun/webcams/c520/


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Wed 13-11-19 10:17; edited 1 time in total
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Snowing here in the Bavarian Oberland this morning (a few folk scrabbling around to get their winters tyres on Smile), seems my previous doom and gloom was misplaced though no guarantee that snow in November precludes a mild and dry December.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.

http://youtube.com/v/0AEj3LA2vSo
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@DB, I'm not sure that page is entirely accurate – it's been snowing solidly here at 600m since about 9pm last night and there's a good 20cm in the village. As snow is being reported right across into Salzburgerland, there's no way that Sölden, Stubai, Obergurgl etc. have no new snow. I'd guess at 50+ cm, but probably more than that.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Scarlet, it's even snowing in downtown Salzburg this morning, although rather wet and claggy.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
DB wrote:
90cm fresh in Obergurgl.
Strange that Sölden (which is only 9 miles away) has not reported any new snow.
Edit - Looks to have been a typo, Obergurgl is no longer showing the 90cm Fresh.
https://www.bergfex.at/oesterreich/schneewerte/
/


Obergurgl's own website is reporting 95cm/190cm! (Bergfex reports the same). And another 1m/2m forecast over the next week on Bergfex.

Resort opens tomorrow.

https://www.obergurgl.com/winter.html

https://www.bergfex.com/obergurgl-hochgurgl/wetter/berg/
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Scarlet wrote:
@DB, I'm not sure that page is entirely accurate – it's been snowing solidly here at 600m since about 9pm last night and there's a good 20cm in the village. As snow is being reported right across into Salzburgerland, there's no way that Sölden, Stubai, Obergurgl etc. have no new snow. I'd guess at 50+ cm, but probably more than that.


Way more - see post above!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Doccam,

Tignes and Val Thorens should have a lot of terrain open by 5th Dec. Either would save you a lengthy commute to Zermatt.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Tremendous volume of snow in Obertauern. From the webcams a number of chairlifts will need digging out!
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Scarlet wrote:
@DB, I'm not sure that page is entirely accurate – it's been snowing solidly here at 600m since about 9pm last night and there's a good 20cm in the village. As snow is being reported right across into Salzburgerland, there's no way that Sölden, Stubai, Obergurgl etc. have no new snow. I'd guess at 50+ cm, but probably more than that.


Bergfex was saying 90cm fresh for Obergurgl this morning but not in a later update.

This link is saying 56cm since yesterday for Obergurgl (click on red snowflake at the right side of the screen)
https://www.obergurgl.com/de/winter.html

This Sölden link says 0 cm but I agree you you and don't believe it. Maybe the bloke who normally measures the snow at Sölden is out powder skiing. wink
https://www.soelden.com/de/winter.html
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Wetter.at Schneechaos live-ticker up and running...

https://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Schneechaos-Tausende-Haushalte-ohne-Strom/405695076
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snow all the way down to the valley (630m) in zillertal lat night and today! easily 30cm+ up at the top of the penken with even more forecast for sunday, assuming this can be consolidated and packed down using the PB's it should be a perfect start to the year.
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Quote:

DB Kaprun Looking better with 50cm Fresh. Will be at Kaprun in 9 days for the ski-touring testival - any other snowheads around?
https://www.bergfex.at/kitzsteinhorn-kaprun/webcams/c520/



Will be leaving the day you arrive! Looking forward to great snow next week.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Very strong start to the European season.

Cold and snowy.

Lots of stations in Austria and elsewhere opening early.

Skifever kicking in.
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poo-poo me, the first post I ve every seen of Whitegold's being remotely positive

LOL
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stefoy4me wrote:
poo-poo me, the first post I ve every seen of Whitegold's being remotely positive

LOL


Patience, the mild spell to end ski season in December post will be along in a couple of weeks.
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