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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
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@kitenski, not here. Once they open they stay open. Weekend only (until 7th Dec), North facing slopes and snow making mean they don’t seem to have a problem maintaining the pistes. The question is when do they open! Apparently decision by Weds on Verbier this weekend - probably depends on whether the 20cm forecast today materialises or not...
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A couple of "before and after" images

https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker/viele-alpenregionen-ueber-nacht-weiss-201911049216494

Not sure how long it will hang around for as there is a light föhn. Supposedly more at the weekend but then milder and dryer, pretty typical November weather.
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@BobinCH, to what height do they usually open?? Seeing some good pre Xmas flight prices!!
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munich_irish wrote:
as there is a light föhn


Not sure it quite reaches that this week (except possibly Nordföhn at the end of the week.

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kitenski wrote:
@BobinCH, to what height do they usually open?? Seeing some good pre Xmas flight prices!!


Up to Les Attelas @ 2733m. They usually start with Lac des Vaux, then down to Ruinettes, La Chaux and town when there’s enough snow. Last year we were hiking/skinning up to Mont Gele by end November but we had a fair bit of snow in Nov. From 7th Dec I think everything opens snow permitting so would wait until after that if you’ve got to hedge your bets on a weekend.
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@nozawaonsen, certainly feels like a föhn in Bavaria this morning (though it might be a mild westerly airstream) and the predominant forecast wind direction for the next few days is southerly. ZAMG thinks föhn from time to time over the next few days in the mountains "... wobei an den Vorderseiten der Kaltfronten kurzzeitig föhnige Effekte auftreten. .... Relativ freundlich und leicht föhnig dürfte das Wetter am Donnerstag sein und die Sonne sollte für ein paar Stunden scheinen können. "

It does look as if it might be snowier at the weekend but maybe not so much for the Tirol / Arlberg
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@kitenski, if you have flexibility then BA has return flights to Geneva from LGW for £27 in December book by tomorrow (and to Turin for £2Cool Shocked
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Updated 06z GFS (usual caveats apply).

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I'd be particularly cautious with the 6z GFS, bit of an outlier, with signs of of the azores high trying to nudge in at the weekend now. Models are 50/50 on blocking off the atlantic onslaught for a while, might only delay the next low pressure system (like GFS) or it could develop a cut off low over europe. Next few runs should clear things up, here's the worst of the charts for sunday (UKMO)....that big purple blob to the left is the one GFS manages to slide over the top of the mid atlantic ridge, but little support atm

UW144-21
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@Snowsartre, cheers but I live in leeds
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For comparison here are the ECM 00z and GFS 06z for the same time.



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12z GFS op run strong for the eastern Alps.




http://youtube.com/v/05pcczvmrjc
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Encouraging to see relatively large amounts forecast for Scotland on the last two runs.

56 & 26cm respectively don't sound like huge totals, but I find these maps tend to underestimate amount for the Scottish ski centres.
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ECM and GFS 12z mean for next week show a cut off low over the english channel, with a more blocked atlantic, currently favouring southern alps, widespread snow possible, but still mixing in mild SW air.
GFS has the low slightly further east, which brings down cooler air to the alps overall, but the 12z Op (above) is still a cold snowy outlier. Temps slightly cooler in the west even on GFS mean.

EDM1-216

gens-21-6-180

The GFS Op has done well in the 4-6 day range recently, I'd still back the mean to be more accurate at days 8-9.


Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Mon 4-11-19 21:17; edited 2 times in total
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GFS op for 0100 on 10/11.

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@kitenski, sorry to hear that wink
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@nozawaonsen, yep, you can see the atlantic ridge is higher on the 12z Op for sunday (1015 south of iceland) and so less energy gets into europe vs. 6z

Here is the 06z Op vs 12z Op on tuesday. Neither will be right at that range, both are outliers vs ensembles and other models, just for illustration.

06z
gfs-0-186

12z
gfs-0-180
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polo wrote:
@nozawaonsen, yep, you can see the atlantic ridge is higher on the 12z Op for sunday (1015 south of iceland) and so less energy gets into europe vs. 6z


12z GFS op Sunday/Monday a lot stronger for snow for eastern Alps than 06z. But op runs so...
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Bergfex suddenly showing some quite decent snowfall for the Zillertal over the next few days.
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@noz, indeed, and a lot less for the west, as you'd expect with the Azores shift.
18z gfs nice as well, starting to pull in northerlies / north easterlies as pressure rises to the west of france
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Wettering Vorarlberg forecasting 20-40cm fresh snow with the snowline falling from 1400-1100m during the day.

GFS 00z (all normal caveats apply).



Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Tue 5-11-19 9:22; edited 1 time in total
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70cm at Hintertux forecast and another 40-50cm rest of week according to Bergfex. I am there in a couple of weeks so really hope they get the pistes down to mid station open!
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@Bennyboy1, here’s the ensembles for Hintertux. Setting aside the FI op run which is an outlier (doesn’t mean it won’t happen, just doesn’t have much support at present), temperatures look fairly steady. By the end of the run that is actually slightly above average because at this time of year temperatures are (on a 30 year average) starting to slide.

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@nozawaonsen, of the few years I have been skiing there in Nov only once have the runs to Sommerberg been open mid Nov. Another warm snap always the fear.
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@Bennyboy1, in the meantime...

https://www.facebook.com/270948112934/posts/10157204988367935?vh=e&d=n&sfns=mo
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Too much excitement for a Tuesday morning. Smile
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A smattering of snow down to 1800 meters in the mountains around Grenoble with about 40cm at 2300 meters and close to a meter at high altitude in the Oisans.
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good agreement for next week to see a cut-off low over europe (AO still tanking), with the centre between UK and Spain, so I would still say the southern alps best placed, but east seems to do well with amounts carrying over across the main alpine ridge.

test8

One chart that looks different today is again the UKMO....it's the only one showing a bowling ball low getting over the atlantic ridge on sunday/monday, suspect it will back down, but it is the second most accurate model at day 5, so always worth keeping an eye on.

UW144-21
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Time to wax the fat (rock) skis...

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ICON 12z sets the bar high for next tuesday. Would be colder than recently with that more northerly air drag, due to the atlantic ridging towards greenland

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A picture is worth a thousand words...

Another 20-30 down to resort level forecast on Thurs/Fri.
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@BobinCH,
Are the temp reports accurate for Verbier in that it seems 2-3 degrees C warmer than surrounding areas such as Chamonix. If so, what I’d the cause? Just curious. Great photo btw.
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@Ptspeak, first time I’ve heard that. My unscientific guess is that we get similar weather/temps/snow depths to Chamonix. Portes du Soleil (Avoriaz etc) seems to be in a spot where they get a bit more precipitation than Cham or Verbier but lower elevations so it doesn’t keep as well
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Cold and snowy in the Mid-west USA. Moving to New England states for a few inches of snow later this week.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/icy-roads-treacherous-morning-commute-midwest-144023975--abc-news-topstories.html
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Who has had enough snow?

Well tough. More on order.

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Quote:

Who has had enough snow?



Well tough. More on order.

Well that's going to upset the doom and gloom merchants. Great news for everyone else. Smile
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This would be a real snow maker next week.

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Is it too early to start the OMG there is too much snow thread?
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@TOOTIE, yes
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Nice pic from Obertauern FB page.

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