 Poster: A snowHead
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ECM also thinking stormy weather may be coming up.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Pretty dry up on the Italian / French border at the moment.
Snowline is around 2400 meters. It is possible to ski from 2500-2800 in the sector as it rained to high altitude and this has refrozen leaving a hard base which is skiable even if there is not much depth. The only issue is, apart from cols like the Iseran, you've got a long walk to find snow.
It looks to continue to be warm well into November so I wouldn't expect significant (or any) snow below 2000 meters although the next couple of weeks appear to be unsettled.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@nozawaonsen,
Excuse my ignorance. This looks like very unsettled. Quite a bit of snow at altitude. Correct?
Val more relevance to my plans than Hintertux.
Thanks for your efforts
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Mark1863, agreed. All a bit too messy to pick out clear indications of amounts or snow lines. The op run at present would suggest snowline dipping to 2000-1500m at times, but it’s all quite chaotic.
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If the 12z GFS op run verified. NB: if!
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Thanks. Fascinating stuff. Early next week interesting one way or another.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Snowing/sleeting in Livigno village earlier today - what's that, about 1850 meters?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Forecasting a low of -13C here in Central Oregon tonight. Cold NW flow over much of the PNW of the USA. BC Interior and Banff/Lake Louise also with some extremely cold temps for late October. That cold air will make it's way across Northern USA and into New England states on Thursday. Good snow making conditions.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Sierra Nevada (spain) not looking too shabby at the moment
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Spain could continue to do relatively well, as the jet is definitely prone to a southerly track so far this year, digging into the bay of biscay. Would also favour southern alps at altitude if it continues.
Gav's weather vids had an interesting winter update on sunday that showed solar minimum winters going from even to odd cycles (this one is solar cycle 24 going into 25), had a pronounced southerly track like we've seen recently. Not great for the northern alps, but it's just another 3 month anomaly chart derived from a small subset of the last 10 or so minimums....so not worth worrying about, but interesting that the pattern matches so far.
I won't post these charts every week, but just want to point out that it is pretty rare to have the deepest NH pressure anomalies heading into central europe as shown. These opportunities may only arise once or twice in an average winter. No doubt if this was further into winter it would lead to widespread snow. And if it was positioned a few hundred miles further east it would be huge for the northern alps. As it is, good odds southern and western alps will do well, and east should also get snow as the lows clear across.
If this set up continues to develop into the first week of Nov, it will be interesting to see where the low anomalies head to next.....south into the med, due east, or lifting out to the NE are the usual exit routes. So some interesting options to keep an eye on.
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much  on Tue 29-10-19 21:21; edited 1 time in total
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You know it makes sense.
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I like gavs vids, wished he covered ski areas in europe
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Mr.Egg, I think for the alps this thread covers most of the relevant themes GWV looks into, albeit without doing hour long videos 
Just noticed I used the word 'interesting' four times in one post, exciting times.
...GFS 18z trying to pull down more of a northerly flow
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Poster: A snowHead
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Decent 00z GFS op which shows the impact of the stormy weather coming up at the weekend.
Builds high pressure over Scandinavia in FI producing a cooler outlook later in November. Maybe, not convinced at this stage.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@polo,
I like the way he structures his videos & puts them together. This thread is usually just a mish mash of screenshots with bla-bla-bla
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Screenshot of Kitzbühel this morning at 1750m.
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Oberösterreich right now:
Snowing above around 1500m here too.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Stuff the election/Brexit depressing shitstorm! It's snowing in Zauchensee.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@queenie pretty please, well said!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@munich_irish, it’s broadly saying the same as the piece on the previous page. That there is a general consensus for a +NAO in the current LRFs.
If that were the case (and of course LRFs are limited in terms of confidence) then it would tend to suggest a pattern which would favour warmer and wetter weather on the northern side of the Alps and colder and drier weather on the southern side of the Alps (as an average for the season as a whole).
Some of the heaviest recent snowfalls we’ve seen in the northern Alps have come during +NAO phases, though it has also brought rain to lower resorts. So if it were to prove correct then it may well mean more snow at altitude, not less.
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@nozawaonsen, I know these forecasts are looking at the climate averaged out over a season in a wide area. Perfectly possible that one spot can be colder or snowier. Within the general pattern there can be significant variation and small temperature differences can have significant impact on the amount of snowfall.
I realise this is no more scientific than Uncle Franzi's marmots or whatever but after being in this part of the world for 20 years the weather pattern does have the feeling of being mild in the run up to Christmas. I am not convinced there is going to be much if any early season skiing. Of course it helps that my own completely subjective (and hopefully wrong!) guesses are generally supported by the work of various supercomputers and legions of professional meteorologists (or at least they can be interpreted that way)
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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My point is more that a +NAO, which is what those models are pointing towards does not normally equate to less snow at altitude in the northern Alps.
As for the nearer term continues to look like quite considerable snowfall for the northern Alps 50cm+ for Tignes over next week with a snow line fluctuating above and below 1900m, 30-40cm for Hintertux.
Temperature trending cooler in FI.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@munich_irish, it’s broadly saying the same as the piece on the previous page. That there is a general consensus for a +NAO in the current LRFs.
If that were the case (and of course LRFs are limited in terms of confidence) then it would tend to suggest a pattern which would favour warmer and wetter weather on the northern side of the Alps and colder and drier weather on the southern side of the Alps (as an average for the season as a whole).
Some of the heaviest recent snowfalls we’ve seen in the northern Alps have come during +NAO phases, though it has also brought rain to lower resorts. So if it were to prove correct then it may well mean more snow at altitude, not less. |
Pleased to have chosen "high" with Obergurgl and Ischgl this year (at a price of course). Obergurgl is supposed to be opening in 2 weeks and there is barely a dusting on the upper slopes and they haven't started the cannons yet, though seems like they should get some snow and some colder weather.
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| munich_irish wrote: |
I realise this is no more scientific than Uncle Franzi's marmots or whatever but after being in this part of the world for 20 years the weather pattern does have the feeling of being mild in the run up to Christmas. |
it has certainly been a very hot summer and a very mild autumn in the French alpes
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You know it makes sense.
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@nozawaonsen, how doesn’t this compare to the lasts season average NAO please?
I was at Hintertux in Nov last year and the ice was brutal. No snow on the surrounding peaks to speak of, valley brown.
I am in Hintertux in a couple of weeks. Hope temps allow this new snow to stick around.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Bennyboy1, the last two winters have had +NAOs. But that just indicates the overall pattern.
November in Hintertux the valley is normally brown. Early November Hintertux skiing was great last year.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@munich_irish I very much hope you'll be posting graphs demonstrating the detailed behaviour of Uncle Franzi's marmots as it pertains to snow in Les Menuires in early December. I've heard sibling grooming whilst facing west is an excellent sign of imminent powder and a good pound to euro exchange rate.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Re. LRF's, put them in the broken pencil file, especially when not showing what we want  . Although at least 2 of them pointed to cold in parts of europe, while at the same time managing to contradict themselves with various discrepancies between pressure anomalies and expected temperatures. And as mentioned before, +NAO is rather good for the north, with a season long base possible even at low altitudes.
Summer and Autumn has only been 1 degree above the 1980-2010 average in France, cooler further west, warmer to the east. And while I don't have the european temps for Oct yet, the CET for UK is below average for the month.
Short term outlook for NW alps shows the dropping FL's as a series of low's slide across. Good agreement now (tight ensembles) for a drop from 3200m this weekend (1st and 2nd Nov) to 1200m next week (3rd - 7th). Beyond that is the usual FI scatter, but at least the Op and Control runs are on the cold side for now.
Here's a chart I nicked from another site showing the on-going effect of the southerly tracking jet. These GFS mean temp anomalies for day 7 - day 12, show most of the alps at or slighty below average. Could do with losing that high pressure to the east tho. Serious cold continuing over North America.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@nozawaonsen, agree that a mild and wet winter in the Bavarian Oberland could also go with significant snow in the higher reaches of the mountains a bit further south. Could also mean some miserable days skiing in the rain (or rather retreating to the nearest hut as soon as possible)!
As to the near term I am not convinced about suggestions of significant snowfall for the eastern alps in the near future, a good period of a Südföhn looks likely but as ever we shall have to wait and see
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Random question and I know its been mentioned before....so apologies - you guys are referring to "North" maybe getting good snow at altitude in terms of +NAO, would that be classed as the entire northern ridge from Switzerland and across? Or does that include what I consider the NW Alps ie Tignes / Trois Vallees etc? Just curious as I like reading these long future forecasts that folks post - but would like to equate it to the locations I am going to be this season. Ta muchly.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I think there is a risk of over interpretation.
Recent winters where each month of winter had a +NAO.
11/12
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
(and 2 out of 3 winter months in 12/13)
It’s not like it’s uncommon.
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| Drew Carey wrote: |
| Random question and I know its been mentioned before....so apologies - you guys are referring to "North" maybe getting good snow at altitude in terms of +NAO, would that be classed as the entire northern ridge from Switzerland and across? Or does that include what I consider the NW Alps ie Tignes / Trois Vallees etc? Just curious as I like reading these long future forecasts that folks post - but would like to equate it to the locations I am going to be this season. Ta muchly. |
From a while ago, but north would be everything above the horizontal-ish curve (in terms of weather, some parts of the Alps that get snow from the north can actually be further south than parts of the southern Alps, like Chamonix vs NE Italy)
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Thu 31-10-19 11:08; edited 1 time in total
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@nozawaonsen, exactly....it's not easy getting -AO/-NAO months, let alone entire winters....but 2019 and 2020 have a greater chance than normal I believe.
Now do 'we' even want these negative oscillations.....it's all so random (north, south, west?) and impossible to draw surface level conclusions. In general tho, colder, drier and favouring south.
@Drew Carey, I would think anywhere north of (and including) Val Thorens / Tignes would do well under typical +NAO, which really means strong westerly zonal flow. The higher the better, but not exclusively.
One thing that hasn't been mentioned much is the stratospheric polar vortex....ramping up above average as predicted into early Nov. This means all the cold air 25km above the north pole is tightly pooled as the 10hpa zonal winds are strong. If this pattern couples with our weather in the troposphere, then +NAO is very likely. I think some of the LRF's might be over-weighting this development in the near term.
And in any case there are 2 further rays of hope....firstly there is no sign of these strong westerly strat winds actually descending to our levels (500hpa) over the next few weeks, and looking further ahead the CFSv2 forecasts a big slow down of 10hpa winds in the second half of Nov.....early signs of possilbe SSW / disruption to strat vortex etc
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@nozawaonsen, it was 3rd weekend and I think some of the early snow had melted. Still better than a day in the office though
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
| the CFSv2 forecasts a big slow down of 10hpa winds...early signs of possibe SSW / disruption to strat vortex... |
Never mind all that s***€...Is it gonna snow FFS!! 
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Or Courchevel?
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FAQ
