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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Well fantasy weather watching/musing, but it seems to have been mostly dry across the alps for 3 weeks, so I would be enjoying classic spring skiing I reckon if I could have made it out this weekend as planned.

Crisp pistes first thing, softening quickly in the sun would be my guess, so following the sun around for a decent day with perhaps some lovely off piste corn and the cold beer at the end with a pair of short sat on a balcony is almost as good as a powder day!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I did manage to get some Zweigelt back home, which was a welcome development, and its been sunny, two out of three isn't bad I suppose
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Here comes the late season snow! Will anyone be able to take advantage...
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No................. fool
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Good times in Nozawa...

https://www.instagram.com/p/B-8QKkBDOr9/?igshid=1lptjvr3lb9fv
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That's cruel.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Jeez, that looks great.

'.... it reminds me of a different era, this is what we were able to do each winter before the first of many lethal virus pandemics spread around the world, grandchildren....'
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
It’s still teasing us with the possibility of something interesting 27th to 30th. Final flourish May 1st weekend?
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@BobinCH, hmmm... bit far out, but hey simple ski touring is back on the menu in Austria from 01 May...
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@nozawaonsen, false alarm last time. Fingers crossed!
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@BobinCH, classic GFS over estimation of precipitation....from your first graph 5 posts above the period 19-25th Apr showed significant rain/snow at 2500m, but just 4 days later (second graph) it's pretty much all gone.

Finally a few drops of rain falling now around Geneva and the first rolls of thunder we've heard since last summer, but it's literally a few drops.

The 8-10day mean comparison is looking promising, particularly ECM side (left).


AO threatening to go negative in line with stratosphere signal for the winter vortex to end next week....note the mean (purple) GFS ensemble stays below zero next week as winds turns net easterly.


So far during this final warming above the north pole we've seen cold air spill into North America, Japan, and Scandi / Russia. But towards the turn of the month the latest forecasted plunge has a good chance of reaching the alps....favours the east at the moment.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Nice.

https://www.ft.com/content/93c78a76-7b0a-11ea-bd25-7fd923850377
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Like cockroaches and dandelions, the record strong strat vortex this year is proving very hard to kill. Normally it's all over by about April 11th, but this one seems to keep spinning now into May.
Doesn't make much difference this season, and it's somewhat ironic that we've had 4-5 really good spring snowfalls in recent years, and the one time it's a non event the lifts are closed anyway and touring mostly banned.

Models are pointing towards a slack N/NE blast next Sunday


Of more interest is what happens next into month end....looks like a battle ground pattern we've seen fail many times...the attempt to slide a low system towards France under high pressure around Iceland.
Zooming out you can see low pressure is leaving the US eastern seaboard and kicks up a mid atlantic block. So from that point, lows can either dig south towards the Azores or head back up around the block towards Greenland / Scandi.



GEM drops an Azores low and places a huge block over Europe. But ECM and GFS attempt the undercut....

GFS has been at it for a few runs, and ends up like this



ECM 12z has just flipped from a block to an undercut as well.....so interesting to see how this plays out. UKMO usually the best at nailing these but it's not in range yet, so will know in a few days if it's a likely outcome, or just more fantasy.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Good stuff @polo.

Meanwhile I’ve always loved this waterfall in Bad Gastein. Spring melt in full effect. Can almost feel the cooling water mist.

https://www.facebook.com/311306129016607/posts/1631904620290078/?vh=e
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
BobinCH wrote:
It’s still teasing us with the possibility of something interesting 27th to 30th. Final flourish May 1st weekend?


A bit more support for some action end next week...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@BobinCH, can you ski in Switzerland now?
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People are ski touring although it is currently strongly advised against (and guides haven’t been working) due to risk of additional pressure on emergency services. From 27th April the first set of restrictions will be relaxed with hospitals opening for non urgent procedures and shops opening. We haven’t skied since the lockdown but are hoping to get out touring on May 1st weekend and have a guide provisionally booked for something interesting...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Wow, lucky you enjoy. That article about the swedish place is making me salivate.

Wonder will the summer season, if it is viable at all, have extra numbers to make up for time people missed. Foreign holidays may also not be viable so the mountains may get a lot more domestic tourism.
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@8611, can't see many (any?) countries allowing cross border travel for non essential things like holidays during 2020, locals like @BobinCH, who don't have to travel to the Alps may well have a cracking May touring season!
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Well hopefully an enhanced domestic tourist market could sustain the businesses through. Would be awful going back to resorts in a few years time and seeing empty businesses that didn't make it.
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@nozawaonsen, nice one, more waterfalls on their way if GEM and ECM close to the mark. Undercut confirmed, evolving into westerly burst, so not particularly cold. Credit though to GFS this time for being early as Bob ensembles highlighted.



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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Looks like 2020 will be the hottest year globally on record.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Whitegold, A prediction no doubt as we’re only four months into it , doesn’t mean you’ll be wrong however
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I see 2016 was the last hottest year on record, and that proved to be a good year for the alps. Late season snow to 1500m thru May, and a very good early start in November '16.

Heavy rain has arrived in the NW and it feels much cooler than models were predicting. Reckon the snowline will be around 2000m in NW over the next week.
GFS 12z to next monday



A lot of change going on in the 8-10 day range. Was looking like a quick heatwave for the alps starting around 4-5th May driven by low pressure near Azores, but now seeing a shift towards flatter westerly, so chance of another low digging in. Strat winds turn net easterly tomorrow at 10 hpa and forecast to go below average next week for only the second time this season (other being early Dec).
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Incoming snowHead
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@BobinCH, you’re well placed, can’t see how we’ll get a chance here before May 11th without breaking the law, 135 eur and all that. Hmmm, not the end of the world I suppose.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Looks like big dumps Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Hopefully it stays cold enough and the sun comes out on Sunday. Was supposed to have been doing the PdG this weekend...
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seems a fitting image, fresh higher up though! @@BobinCH, are you allowed out to tour from May 1st?

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@kitenski, it was never banned in CH just advised against. With shops opening and schools going back in the next few days I think we should be ok. Friends have been up today
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Snowline circa 1650m here - so would be good up the road Mad
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Was some light snow down to 1700m here, but all washed away now as FL rises to above 2000m.

The final strat warming is well underway, leading to -NAO and -AO into mid May. So like a broken clock when I predicted a negative AO winter, I was right twice....and the second one is still a week away.
But it's showing up consistently now, especially ECM which has thrown out some amazing charts to celebrate deconfinement on May 11th? Ok won't go there.

Here are the latest Op runs, ECM, GEM and GFS. The old GFS had a bias to push everything too far east, only to slowly retrogress nearer to time. New GFS seems to have similar issues, though often it will lead as well.....so another one to watch.
Normally after an undercut you get a northerly, didn't happen this week, but the background will be better next week with high pressure reaching up towards Greenland.





And the means....
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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GFS and ECM Op's continue to go their separate ways around May 11th, with other models somewhere inbetween, though most are closer to ECM version.
It's interesting that not much cold is showing up on GFS ensembles either, so one of these models is going to have to make a dramatic switch soon.

For a change, here's a look at the 850hpa temps, about 1500m asl, GFS first has +12c for the alps, while ECM clips the northern ridge with -4c and a frost warning for the UK.


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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Not bad for May snowfall Shocked

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Those poles are 130cm
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And more coming mid May! May is the new April?
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Slow on the draw, but it is worth noting China, Czech Rep and Norway all reopened a handful of (smaller) ski resorts in mid-Apr.

This photo is from Czech Rep.

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Whitegold wrote:
Slow on the draw, but it is worth noting China, Czech Rep and Norway all reopened a handful of (smaller) ski resorts in mid-Apr.

This photo is from Czech Rep.



this just in from Norway



must be warm
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
The best solution re. the models is always in the middle. No different above.

ECM and GFS kiss and makeup with neither extreme likely now. Some potentially stormy weather coming given sharp temperature gradient from next weekend.
UKMO below shows the real cold will only hit higher ground in UK / Scandi, so too far north of the alps.



Still might see snow below 2000m in places, but my guess is a bit higher locally (GFS 12z Op is clearly a cold outlier)



Lot's of moving parts in the 8-10day charts, am not giving up yet for one more shot of cold snow
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davidof wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
Slow on the draw, but it is worth noting China, Czech Rep and Norway all reopened a handful of (smaller) ski resorts in mid-Apr.

This photo is from Czech Rep.



this just in from Norway



must be warm



Eeny, meeny, miny moe...
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@polo, you’re in France right so this could be of interest. Will be a lot of snow up there!
https://www.skiweekend.com/blog/lifts-in-chamonix-to-open-again-from-16-may
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