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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Rob Mackley, please ignore the troll
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
After a damp and cloudy start today ended fine in the Arlberg, but not especially mild.

A warm day to come tomorrow before temperatures drop off at the end of the week, slowly rising in the spring sun before potentially dropping again.

Arlberg



Chamonix



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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Looks like the FL was very high. Another decent dump up high. Go High and North facing and it should be good....


Could be limited to touring soon so make the most of it!
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Would be amazing ambiance and feeling being up there virtually alone and privileged. If I was stuck anywhere near snow I'd definitely be looking for a guide.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
And outside in fresh air and far from crowds.
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Well I'm still watching the weather as there's not much else to do.
Good agreement heading into the final third of March for high pressure between UK and Scandi, low pressure over the med. Depending on orientation, could allow cold air to undercut from the east.

test8

GFS 00z Op probably over-doing it, but something along these lines has been cropping up

gfs-15-240

Personally am not skiing this weekend. Am hoping they close the lifts soon for obvious containment reasons.....and I'd finally get out of the house and skin up those lovely empty pistes. Until then, there's a lot of gardening to do.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@polo, good stuff. Will be indoors for a couple of weeks at least post escape from the Arlberg.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
European ski season is all but over.

Italy, Norway, Austria, Switzerland, Andorra, Pyrenees, Slovakia, and probably France, all fully or partly shuttered today.
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@Whitegold, sadly you are correct in this instance. Hope everyone who has been skiing is well. Sad for those due to go, but a missed skiing holiday is the least of our problems. Skiing resorts are in the same position as the rest of the travel, transport, and leisure industry worldwide. The ski season everywhere should be over. Sad
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@twoodwar, resorts in US shutting up shop this weekend too.
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@nozawaonsen, cheers, thanks for the weather views. I hope you/we are able to do this in 6 months or so.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@twoodwar, looking forward to it. Stay safe.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Yup, thanks @nozawaonsen (&others) for all the great weather info....

Stay healthy folks!!


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Wed 18-03-20 11:13; edited 1 time in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen,

As ever thanks for all your input with this thread. Appreciated greatly.

Bring on next season! Cool
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Sorry but.................

It ain't over till the fat lady sings Laughing
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looks as if some late winter weather is on the way

https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/dangerous-arctic-outbreak-east-central-europe-worsening-covid19-outbreak-mk/

Clearly annoying given the mild weather earlier in the year. Not sure about the link with virus rates but clearly cold and miserable weather is not going to help anyone feel better Crying or Very sad
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Any sign of global dimming due to lesser plane traffic?

Could be an interesting opportunity to reevaluate the way we've been living, and lots of worried people sitting at home reading social media right across the western world, wonder will we see some movements spring up or will people be too scared and broken when they come out of the bunkers
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The ski season worldwide is over for 2019 / 2020.

Let's see if Chile or Argentina manage to spin some lifts in June to September. The last hope for a slide this year.

Shout to Noza for reppin' the Weather Outlook thread again this season.

Good job.
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Quote:
Any sign of REDUCTION OF global dimming due to lesser plane traffic?

Definitely clear blue skies over Bristol with no jet contrails

Remember the BBC horizon doc in 2005 where they discussed the lack of haze in the sky with the US flight ban after 9/11

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_trans.shtml
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Yeah I'm not sure what it's called but my father told me that after September 11th there was a rise in global temperatures, posited to be because there were no planes in the sky and planes release emissions which actually reflect some heat away from the earth, before also trapping it rebounding from the earth. Not sure if true - but I do note the weather has been good the last week!

A stanton approach to science!
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According to the Horizon documentary: The only downside with global dimming reduction (ie cleaning up our act) is that ever since the industrial Revolution we've been pumping particulates into the atmosphere which limits the sun reaching the earth.

Since the 70s/80s when we'd started cleaning up industrial pollution etc the amount of dimming has been reducing which has a corresponding increase in global warming due to more solar energy getting to the earth

There was a section in the doc about a (really boring) research project in Australia since the 1950s called something like "pan evaporation", where they measure the amount of evaporation from pans of water in the desert, amassing large volumes of data about the amount of solar energy to use in climate modeling.

The actual measures after 9/11 could then be used to validate the accuracy of the theoretical models

Pan Evaporation is discussed in detail in the hyperlink to the BBC transcript I posted above ==^

PS: must have been a good documentary seeing as I remember all this from 15 years ago
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote from the BBC horizon transcript,
Quote:
Solve the problem of Global Dimming and the world could get considerably hotter. And this is not just theory, it may already be happening. In Western Europe the steps we have taken to cut air pollution have started to bear fruit in a noticeable improvement in air quality and even a slight reduction in Global Dimming over the last few years. Yet at the same time, after decades in which they held steady, European temperatures have started rapidly to rise culminating in the savage summer of 2003.

Forest fires devastated Portugal. Glaciers melted in the Alps. And in France people died by the thousand. Could this be the penalty of reducing Global Dimming without tackling the root cause of global warming?

DR BEATE LIEPERT: We thought we live in a global warming world, um but this is actually er not right. We lived in a global warming plus a Global Dimming world, and now we are taking out Global Dimming. So we end up with the global warming world, which will be much worse than we thought it will be, much hotter.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_trans.shtml
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Colder weather this weekend and into early april unless I'm reading it wrong.
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geoffers wrote:


PS: must have been a good documentary seeing as I remember all this from 15 years ago


Lol. Like the way the brain would annoyingly remember random trivia that did you no favours in an exam.
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Quote:


Colder weather this weekend and into early april unless I'm reading it wrong.


3rd powder Easter in a row. Crying or Very sad
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Been nagging to a friend who lives above La Grave and he sent me this earlier

To miss all that perfect spring conditions was hard but this coming week will be painful....good chance 2020’s Janvril will be the best in years just adding the famous salt....

But from what I can see looks like God is being kind to us and taking temptation and frustration away?

Freezing this morning for the dog walk (0 degrees) with a keen NW'ly, back to wearing gloves and I nearly slipped on some ice Laughing
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Not much interest I'm sure, but was bored enough to look at a few weather charts.
Also we haven't had a drop of rain for 3 weeks now in the NW alps so getting a little concerned about how dry it is already for planting season. Might get a few flakes low down tomorrow while staying relatively dry and cold into early April.

Not often you see the 10 day temperature anomaly chart this blue, although it should warm up quickly from next weekend (4-5th apr)



NAO going negative finally and ICON 12z shows a wintery set up on Friday but it's an outlier vs all others at this stage. So the end of week storm will probably be to the NE over Scandinavia, although it wouldn't take much adjustment to steer back towards the alps.



In the meantime GFS 12z out to Friday shows southern alps might get 20-30cm

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
As predicted, 2019-2020 was the warmest Northern Hemisphere winter on land on record.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/28/the-northern-hemisphere-winter-of-2019-20-was-the-warmest-ever-on-land
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Posted on the NA West thread. But it's tough to have all this snow coming, and not be able to enjoy it. Sad

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No such problem round here. It’s been bone dry for the last 3 weeks and more of the same for the next couple. Early switch from skiing to the bike...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Lucky you. No skiing, no parapente and no bike in my part of the world Sad
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zzz wrote:
Lucky you. No skiing, no parapente and no bike in my part of the world Sad
Sorry to hear that. Hopefully the situation improves soon. Seems to be getting better in CH so can see some loosening of the restrictions after Easter. And finally some signs of snow. Perhaps some End April / May touring...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Great spring avalanche in Les Graves.

https://www.facebook.com/969505053076246/posts/3429905960369464/?vh=e&d=n
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We’ve seen the virus do quite well in dry weather. Perhaps what we need now is some cooler wetter conditions? The ground is very dry around here. Some rain might be welcome although the model output for this part of the uk doesn’t look particularly wet snowHead
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Great spring avalanche in Les Graves.

https://www.facebook.com/969505053076246/posts/3429905960369464/?vh=e&d=n


Looks like another serac fall. Same place as one we saw in La Grave a few weeks back. Bloody scary when you’re anywhere near it Shocked
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@Peter S, about as interested in turning this thread into another virus thread as I am in repeatedly smacking my head against a brick wall.
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@BobinCH, yes I had a serac collapse above me triggering an avalanche a few years ago. It got the adrenaline flowing.
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Just trying to keep it topical Laughing
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@nozawaonsen, snow mon-tues in the east?

The vortex is slowing fading, but still way above average for most of April (and all winter). The only period this season where it was below average was mid Nov into early Dec, then it ramped up to break records in Feb. Time running out for one last blast of arctic air.


pictur
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@polo, temperatures definitely dropping at start of week, not so sure about snowfall yet.

Magnificent Ska. To enjoy with sunshine.


http://youtube.com/v/u5ENz8y-D9Y
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