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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Smokin Joe, that's through Bergfex (and on the highest slopes)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Take two. 12z GFS snowfall chart for comparison. Earlier one hadn’t updated.

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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Yo-yoing temps continue
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8611 wrote:
Yo-yoing temps continue


Not in the same way really. Puzzled
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@hinesy32, yes this weekend was forecast to be be very mild. Colder temperatures look likely over the next week albeit with a brief warm up at the end of the month followed by cooler temperatures again.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@hinesy32, yes this weekend was forecast to be be very mild. Colder temperatures look likely over the next week albeit with a brief warm up at the end of the month followed by cooler temperatures again.


That’s how I read it. March is the new January!


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Mon 24-02-20 5:42; edited 1 time in total
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@munich_irish, thanks for that, I am going to amend that. It is hard to find good historical snow depth data like you can in the Western US and Australia, so I have to reread this thread and rely on the OnTheSnow depth data.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
8611 wrote:
Yo-yoing temps continue


Not in the same way really. Puzzled


Are we looking better in skiing terms? I'm just throwing an eye on the forecasts I have access to and noted big dump with snow to valley floors Wed with rising temps thereafter Thurs which seems similar to last two or three dumps.

Now showing with a lot more snow thereafter too, but can't see if it will be followed by high temps thereafter?

Its making me feel a bit better about not getting out there, though I don't mind skiing in storms if anything is open. Powder followed by a few days of cold would probably lead to severe emotional difficulty. And, God forbid, powder from the South followed by cold would be mid - life crisis stuff.

Looking forward to Morris' synopsis of this week, though maybe the Italian Health Ministry's views might be more operative Skullie
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Well down South temps again hit 20+ in the sunshine on the patio yesterday, so it was out with the bike and the shorts up to the Lautaret, though a brutal headwind and came close to packing twice!



Today looks like more of the same and less wind.

And then as @BobinCH, says, "March is the new January!" and below forecast for Serre Che will please many a SH coming out here for the Off-Piste Bash in a couple of weeks as off-piste is non-existent, whilst some of us are going back to UK 27th and then returning to Pila 3rd March for the SIGB Ski Test rolling eyes




8611 wrote:
............. Powder followed by a few days of cold would probably lead to severe emotional difficulty. And, God forbid, powder from the South followed by cold would be mid - life crisis stuff.
better get an appt with the shrink Laughing


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Mon 24-02-20 10:11; edited 2 times in total
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@8611, currently looking cooler than it has for much of the last couple of months with sustained snowfall in the northern Alps, but agree that in the west in particular it looks stormy. Should be good opportunities amongst all of this though albeit with a rising avalanche risk (I’d imagine we are heading for 4s possibly even a 5 or two in the higher French resorts towards the end of the week).

Meteo France pull together regular updates on snow levels. For the Alps 1700m is the make or break number beneath which it drops off below average, above 1700m “très satisfaisant.” And in some areas above average over 2000m. Of course this very dependent on location.

http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/79819778-enneigement-en-montagne-au-19-fevrier-2020

@Weathercam, sun looks nice.
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@Weathercam, nice bike, is it a Roubaix? I tend to cycle at home if I get a gap in work diary when I need away and snow gods not obliging. Jeez we could have an entirely different thread torturing ourselves for cycling weather in the off season

Looks like we're in for an interesting few weeks, albeit I'm still not seeing significant accumulations where I want to go, i.e. Monte Rosa and Dolomites. Last 5 trips in a row have been Austria and I just miss a bit of Italy, those two have been hovering on my target list for years so need to make progress
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@8611, ECM is suggesting a decent fall of snow allover the southern alps around 2nd March, GFS not so enthusiastic. Fingers crossed you might get your Italian snow Very Happy
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Heading to Bardonecchia on Sunday.....

How accurate is the above forecast looking to you gurus with all the charts? Should I be renting fat skis for our trip?

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Wow bonkers here, just back from a bike ride up to Col de Montgenèvre and thermometer reading 18.5 put sensor in the direct sun and it hit 30.9 !!


@8611, S-Works Roubaix SRAM eTap (2018)
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Fridge03 wrote:
Heading to Bardonecchia on Sunday.....

How accurate is the above forecast looking to you gurus with all the charts? Should I be renting fat skis for our trip?


If that’s J2ski, I have found their forecasted snow amounts to be ambitious. I usually use the bergfex app, snow forecast, and of course, here.
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@Fridge03, no one can answer that question Very Happy . The two main weather forecasting models are suggesting a change in the weather from the middle of this week with, at least some, snow to the south / east of the main ridge of the alps. In practical terms that does mean snow in Bardonecchia, how much and whether that will justify hiring powder skis is a bit early to tell. I would not put too much faith in any of the apps beyond the next day or two, the forecast more than a few days out changes very regularly.
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@Ptspeak, @munich_irish,

Thanks for your thoughts. Even if they get a good top up this week, I'll be happy!
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How GFS12z sees the snowfall out to Monday 1800z. Usual caveats apply.



@Fridge03, Bardonecchia is Just on the edge of that, but think it should pick up a decent top up.
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I’m hoping Wengen is just under that 121 Very Happy
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Smokin Joe wrote:
I’m hoping Wengen is just under that 121 Very Happy


It's pretty close!
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nozawaonsen wrote:
How GFS12z sees the snowfall out to Monday 1800z. Usual caveats apply.





Is this predicted snowfall. Heading to skiwelt which I think is pretty close to the 98, is that cms of snowfall predicted
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Where is Avoriaz on the chart thanks Smile
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@2waterford, it shows what the latest GFS operational run models for kg/m2 of accumulated snow. As I mentioned the usual caveats apply in that the GFS operational run is by its nature prone to fluctuation so those figures will go up and down as the amount of modelled snowfall varies from location to location. Very roughly you can come up with a calculation based on a simplified conversion of snow density to imply those figures as cms of snowfall, but that depends on your assumptions about snow density which will of course vary die to temperature etc. All of which adds up to saying don’t put too much faith in the numbers, but it gives you a very tough snapshot.
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@2waterford, this is a predicted snowfall chart for Kitzbühel (so near enough Skiwelt) https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=3095&model=gfs&var=26&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1. Assume the white line is what is forecast to happen (not quite technically correct but it will do). As you can see fairly constant snow is forecast for much of the next 14 days. Not sure things will actually turn out that way and also you might prefer some sunshine Madeye-Smiley
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SLF outlook for Wednesday and Thursday.

“With a mostly strong westerly to northwesterly wind, snow will fall over a wide area on Wednesday and Thursday. The snowfall level will be at low altitude before rising to approximately 1200 m on Thursday afternoon. On each of the two days, around 15 to 30 cm of fresh snow is to be expected in Valais, on the northern flank of the Alps, and in northern Grisons. Less snow will fall in the other regions. It will be partly sunny in the far south. In all regions the danger of dry avalanches will increase; in the regions with a lot of fresh snow, the increase will be significant.
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@munich_irish, @nozawaonsen,

Thanks guys, arriving Saturday so keeping everything crossed.
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@2waterford

Same here, lets hope there's a good dump as been some warm periods!
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Quiet old morning on here - is everyone just looking expectantly out the window doing a little snow dance?
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You know it makes sense.
Panic buying masks, sanitizer, pot noodles
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@nozawaonsen, I don't see the 98 or 121 referenced in later posts. Is that a static photo (in which case I guess I'll attribute the issue to middle aged eyesight) or is it updating?
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@mr. mike, they update every six hours.
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SLFs outlook.

”Weather forecast through Wednesday, 26.02.2020

There will be showery snowfall over a wide area even at low altitudes. Towards the south, smaller amounts of fresh snow are likely. The far south will be fairly sunny.

Fresh snow

From Tuesday evening until Wednesday afternoon above 1200 m:

Jura, extreme west of Lower Valais, northern Alpine ridge west of the Finsterarhorn: 20 to 40 cm, but up to 50 cm in the far west

Rest of the northern Alpine ridge, Vaud and Fribourg Alps, rest of Valais, Prättigau: 15 to 30 cm


Rest of the northern flank of the Alps, rest of Grisons, Ticino: 5 to 15 cm
Temperature

At midday at 2000 m: between -11 °C in the north and -9 °C in the south

Wind

Strong, at elevated altitudes sometimes storm force, from the west to northwest

Outlook through Friday, 28.02.2020

Thursday

On Thursday snow will fall in the north over a wide area; in the afternoon in particular the snowfall will be heavy at times. A further 15 to 30 cm of fresh snow is to be expected. As the day progresses the snowfall level will rise to approximately 800 to 1000 m.It will be quite sunny in the far south. The wind will be strong to storm force from the southwest to west. The avalanche danger will continue to increase over a wide area.

Friday

The snowfall will cease on Thursday night. In the north a further 10 to 30 cm are likely, but the amounts of fresh snow remain very uncertain. Afterwards it will be changeable in the north and sunny in the south. The wind will be strong at times from the northwest. Depending on the amounts of fresh snow, the avalanche danger will increase further, in particular in the north during the night.”
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This would bring further snow and cold round 05 March.

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Snowy and windy day coming up in the northern Alps. Damüls have their ruler out. In fairness they always have their ruler out.

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@nozawaonsen, nice.

Chamonix meteo spot on with the morning’s expectation management at 1,050m ... we have 5 cms and it’s snowing heavily. And looks like the forecast 20-30cms at 1,800m, if a little windblown.
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Reports of great skiing in the trees with the 20-25cm that fell overnight in the West


Cham météo forecasting another 60cm at 1800m until Friday morning
http://m.chamonix-meteo.com/en/index.php
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Batten down the hatches! A big storm a coming for those out in the East, New England States.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/winter-storm-marching-across-country-moving-northeast-wednesday-132800961--abc-news-topstories.html

New England and Quebec, Canada ski areas should see anywhere from 10cm-20cm from this event.
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About 30-40cm in the Savoie mountains, more like 10-15cm further south in the Bauges, Maurienne, Isere. We need about half a meter to improve the situation in the mountains around Grenoble. It is colder, which is one thing. It was over 20C at Bourg St Maurice on Monday at 850 meters.
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Min 30cm in my garden in morzine. Didn't get out today but I hear 40-50 up the hill.
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Glencoe is reporting 450cm at the summit.

Scotland is (finally) worth a trip for the Brits.

Bulgaria continues to have a nitemare season.

Snow in the valley at Bansko has all but disappeared.
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