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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
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@polo, odd that the op run has had this cold spell for the last 3 or 4 forecasts, but pretty much no support from anything else.
ECM doesn’t cool much at all around the 21st. Neither to the other GFS runs.
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@Drammeister, yep, for the second time in a week really....as GFS was on it's own 6-7 days out for tomorrows snowfall as well. I think most of the time it's best to look at blended outcomes when the models differ, but there are plenty of times where one of the main 3-4 models Op run will go off on one and the rest will follow. At the moment the GFS has done well to set the low further east than others, certainly for tomorrows snowfall, and it seems to be leading the eastward shift for next weekend as well. This doesn't mean all the snow is going to end up on Hintertux, just that the track of the low is generally snowier as it hits the alps, drawing in more N/NW air than SW air.

Re. the ECM 21-22nd ...depends where you're looking, the Op and mean have been steady for slightly below average temps to the west at least. We'll soon see if it follows GFS further east.
The GFS ensemble mean also followed it's Op colder on the 06z compared to 00z, so small steps. Differences below, the eastward shift shows the generally colder temps.

ECM 00z
ECM100-192

GFS 06z
gfs-15-186
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Estofex warning that whilst tomorrow may produce snow at altitude it’s not going to be pretty lower down...

“ .... France and Italy ....

A strong moisture flux convergence is expected near the coasts of Gulfs Lion and Genoa on Tuesday 15/10. Especially the orographic lifting of low-level moist air masses close to the coasts can result in flash floods with up to 100 mm in less than 2 hours. Moreover, strong low-level kinematics with veering profiles create high values of storm-relative helicity and shear, increasing the tornado threat. A few supercells may form well-developed mesocyclones, able to spawn tornadoes.”



http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2019101606_201910142119_2_stormforecast.xml
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Indication of what has been hitting Japan...

https://twitter.com/dwvcd/status/1182971520169046016?s=21

But conditions clear this morning.


What's left of Typhoon Hagibis will make landfall in British Columbia around Oct. 18th/19th or so. Should bring with it cooler temps and moisture as snow at higher elevations.
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Light snow to about 2200 now in the NW...temps still dropping. The weekend low is pretty much fully programmed to eventually slide SW (Pyrenees) than SE, so some snow again above 2000 mainly west and south alps. Southern alps still best placed.
But look what's coming over the hill.....3rd run in a row now where either the control or the Op go full on greenland heights and northern stau.
It's been showing up for end of Oct in FI, but the 12z GFS brings it forward a bit.

Strat PV ramping up into Nov building the cold pool above the arctic, but AO dropping sharply, so more meridonal than zonal....ie snownal.


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Tue 15-10-19 17:59; edited 1 time in total
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snow down to 3000M in Zermatt and 2555M in Cervinia. Still snowing.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
According to a tweet I saw earlier 20cm of snow at 2700m in Alpe D'Huez.
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Raining hard in Zurich all day.

Talk of snow above 2700m near Engelberg.
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DaddyLouLou wrote:
According to a tweet I saw earlier 20cm of snow at 2700m in Alpe D'Huez.


snow should be below 2000 meters tomorrow... but then again it was at village level a couple of weeks back and it will all melt again
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Nice webcam shot from Zermatt this morning. More snow likely over the weekend between 2600-2800m.
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Snow was probably down to 1900 meters in the Northern French Alps, just a smattering at Chamrousse



Tignes is opening on the 19/10 but still looking a bit dry

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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Small indication of the huge infrastructure hit (let alone human cost) that Japan just took.

https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2019101600482/jr-east-may-scrap-120-flooded-shinkansen-cars.html
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and a few cms at l'Alpe d'Huez too (image from the webcam at 2700 meters)

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GFS FI still toying with building high pressure over Greenland.

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We know GFS Op is prone to some big swings, even within a week. But the change over the last 48hrs for this weekend from the 06z runs is extreme. And this is the model that drives most apps and websites as the data is free.
It was way out on it's own, and then had to back track pretty quickly. Can see the change in direction of isobars from NW to SW. #downgrade #morechanceofwaspsthansnow

168-24

120-24
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L’Aiguille du midi (3842m) this morning.

Photo Olivier P. via @glaciers et massif du Mont-Blanc
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Swiss glaciers lost 10% of their ice in the past 5 years, the most in recorded history.

Summer 2019 was a disaster in Eastern and Northern Switzerland.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/15/europe/switzerland-glacier-melting-scli-intl-scn/index.html
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Storm brewing off the Pacific. Coming in on the slightly warmer side around Friday afternoon, and leaving on the slightly cooler side, around Sunday evening. Whistler should do nicely with about 20cm-30cm. Same for the Northern and Central Cascades. Southern Cascades in Oregon might get a few centimeters at higher elevations as well. Probably a rain/snow mix at the bases of the ski areas, transitioning to snow into Sunday. Storm should make it's way to Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming ski areas on Sunday. Colorado Rockies should see some snow on Sunday as well.
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A quick look at some of the resort webcams and most of the summits from Whistler on down to Mt Bachelor have snow on them. More snow incoming on Friday evening and into Saturday.

https://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx
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Interesting analysis from Andrej Flis at Severe Weather Europe of historical markers that match the current situation. From a winter sports perspective it's (cautiously) optimistic.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-19-20-statistical-outlook-solar-cycle-enso-fa/
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Still looking pretty dry in the Savoie, this looking towards the Grande Casse / Grande Motte yesterday and it rained pretty high overnight.

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A few inches overnight in the Cascades. The real fun begins later tonight into Saturday morning though. Very Happy
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Was in Liechtenstein yesterday.

Very warm.

Tshirt weather at ~1600m.

It is nearly November.
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Where's that pic taken from davidof Puzzled
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mountainaddict wrote:
Where's that pic taken from davidof Puzzled


I took it yesterday on the Col de la Loze above Meribel/Courchevel
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Southern Cascades Weather Report. Snow estimates are for base elevation of 5,200'. Snow level will go down briefly overnight to about 4,000', which is about where my house is at. Looking forward to playing in the snow tomorrow!

Detailed Forecast

Friday Afternoon Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 26F. West wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Friday Night Snow showers. Temperature rising to around 29F by 4am. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Saturday Snow showers. Temperature rising to near 30F by noon, then falling to around 24F during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a west wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Saturday Night Snow showers. Low around 25F. Breezy, with a west wind 24 to 29 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38F. Southwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Not much consensus for the last week of Oct, despite ECM and GFS showing high pressure over europe, UKMO looks promising at t+144, while JMA, ICON and GEM are also different.
The med low is still there, and though it can be good for southern alps / pyrenees, it's pumping hot air into eastern europe, while the low in the mid atlantic is supplying mild SW'lys to the rest of europe.
So both of these low's are making it difficult for any cold northerly flow to reach central europe.

ECM temp anomaly friday
ECM100-144

Pressure anomlies 27-29th
test8

Even with strong Greenland high and deeply -AO, the cold air getting pushed out of the arctic doesn't reach central europe this time, but with so little agreement beyond 5-6 days there is scope for a different picture to emerge soon.
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Awesome October turns in the Southern Cascades were had this morning. Going back for 2nds on Sunday as the snow is expected to continue into tomorrow morning. A good solid 25cm on top of about 10cm that fell the day before.



Nice and soft, medium density. No sharks to be found.

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Good stuff Toadman - but, as seemimgly at the start of every winter, Europe is well behind the US of A... rolling eyes
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mountainaddict wrote:
Good stuff Toadman - but, as seemimgly at the start of every winter, Europe is well behind the US of A... rolling eyes


Plenty of time to catch up! It's still only October! wink
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That first dog in real danger of ruining your first tracks!
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Not as good as Toadman but in Scotland a touch of winter on Cairngorm

https://www.facebook.com/groups/snowpatchesscotland/
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Overnight saw more snow in the Cascades, about 5" to 8" at upper elevations. Storm tracked over Idaho and into Colorado. Several of the Colorado ski areas saw 6"-8". (Loveland/Breck/Vail) Whistler Blackcomb also picked up about 5" at mid-mountain.

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@Toadman, looks like you are having some fab early conditions, but I notice you also have a thread running on North America West Coast Resorts? To avoid duplication and thread drift here could I suggest you post the detailed reports on conditions on that thread? I know there is discussion about conditions at times here, just want to keep the balance right!
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+1
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Still very hot in the French Alps. Mega foehn on Sunday and high altitude rain (zero iso was close to 4000 meters). I'm not convinced by the "15cm" of powder on the Tignes glacier on Saturday, or the 5cm at 2100 meters, but if it happened it would all have blown away by now.

This week will continue with the windy theme with a return to more unsettled weather on Thursday but still warm. Not unusual for October. The following couple of days should be better up on the Tignes glacier, assuming they can open anything. I'm watching the weather closely as I want to drive across the col du Mont Cenis at the weekend.
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+1 this is weather outlook thread and I watch to see what weather gurus think is coming in near future.
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Not much snow around in Austria even at 3000m
https://www.bergfex.at/soelden/webcams/c7105/

Only 4 days till the first world cup races of the season at Sölden - is the race still going to take place?
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A bit of snow 5-10cm likely at Hintertux today above 3000m, but Föhn continuing and increasing.



Once winds drop should be some very fine October hiking weather.

00z GFS pushing for colder weather from start of November, but that’s FI so... enjoy the very fine hiking weather.
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00z ECM brings the cold at the end of the month.

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